Reply to Why are you demanding 5 day in-person school now that the pandemic is getting more dangerous?

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Reply to "Why are you demanding 5 day in-person school now that the pandemic is getting more dangerous?"

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]I want to know how you looked at this ensemble model from your first link and decided it meant the pandemic is getting more dangerous. It looks like that line is continuing to go down.

[img]https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/images/covid-data/National-Forecast-Incident-Cumulative-Deaths-2021-03-22-large.jpg[/img][/quote]

OP here. To answer your question, I looked at the underlying assumptions of all the models, which I also linked to in my post. I scanned these assumptions, and found that they were assuming that past transmission rates would continue in the future, with some variance for mobility and weather. Therefore, the models are not taking into account variants that are more transmissible and more lethal, which is my concern. That is my point (which was in the first post) - these graphs are not reflecting this possible lethal variable.

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You looked at the models and decided you didn't like what they showed so you made up your own model in your head. Have you considered there might be a reason they haven't included the factors you are so scared of in the models? Do you think it's because you know more than them?[/quote]

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