Why are you demanding 5 day in-person school now that the pandemic is getting more dangerous?

[Anonymous]

Do you disagree and think that the pandemic is getting less dangerous? If so, are you actively monitoring epidemiology and drawing conclusions that are different from me?
Do you agree that the pandemic is getting more dangerous but think it only affects other people, not you / your loved ones?
Or do you agree that the pandemic is getting more dangerous even for you / your loved ones, but it's still worth the risk for the benefits of in-person 5 days school?

Here's why I think things are taking a turn towards the worse:

* the compilation of prediction models (https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/forecasting-us.html) predicts 2700 - 9600 deaths a week. Yes, the highest prediction is still way lower than during the last surge (24000 deaths a week at its peak) but it's still higher than last August. More importantly, if you look at the underlying assumptions of these models, they aren't changing the level of transmission, beyond tying it to mobility of a population or weather. (https://github.com/cdcepi/COVID-19-Forecasts/blob/master/COVID-19_Forecast_Model_Descriptions.md). However, there's a reasonable chance that transmission rates in 2021 are not going to be the way they were in 2020.

* we are finding out that several covid variants are more transmissible -- specifically, "UK" B.1.1.7 (59% - 74% more contagious) (https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2021/03/03/science.abg3055) "South Africa" B.1.351 (50% more) (https://www.newscientist.com/definition/south-african-covid-19-variant/) and "Brazil" P.1 (200% more contagious) (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-brazilvariant/contagious-brazil-covid-19-variant-evades-immunity-scientists-warn-idUSKBN2AU22B).

* P.1 re-infects 25%-60% of people. Vaccines are much less effective against P.1 and B.1.351

* P.1 has been reported in 22 states, B.1.351 has been reported in 30 states, and B.1.1.7 is everywhere in the U.S. (https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/transmission/variant-cases.html)

* Younger people are dying at much higher rates where P.1 is endemic - 3x case fatality rates for ages 20-29, 2x for 30-39, 40-49, 50-59. (https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.03.24.21254046v1)

I'm not saying that I'm certain that all hell is going to break loose....but I am saying that I don't understand how the "open schools now" crowd is so absolutely certain that this isn't a likely outcome.

I am certain that children whose parents die are 10 bazillion times more likely to suffer a learning gap than children whose parents don't die.

Note: I have no formal medical education so I'm in the same boat as the rest of us, trying to figure this out the best I can

[Anonymous]

It is not getting "more dangerous." You're wrong.

[Anonymous]

Look, these arguments are pointless. They simply don't care about COVID or the impact on others. They need their needs met. Move on.

[Anonymous]

It's very nice of you to post of that information with links to multiple sources. Unfortunately the 5 days RIGHT NOW brigade isn't really interested in data, or the many, many warnings.
They want 5 days of in-person school RIGHT NOW.
States are lifting mask mandates RIGHT NOW.
People are traveling and gathering RIGHT NOW.
Sure, we could hold on for 2 more months for majority of the population to be vaccinated, and that is what public health officials are urgently pleading for people to do, but nope, people want what they want, and they want it RIGHT NOW.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Look, these arguments are pointless. They simply don't care about COVID or the impact on others. They need their needs met. Move on.

Disagree. I think OP's premise is wrong. That doesn't mean that I don't care about covid or the impact on my family, your family, and other families.

BTW, all people need their needs met. If that's your argument, then you're arguing for schools to reopen too. Balancing needs includes looking at covid risks (it's not getting more dangerous) and other risks.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Look, these arguments are pointless. They simply don't care about COVID or the impact on others. They need their needs met. Move on.

Says the person holding children's education hostage. We are done catering to your "needs". Get back into society and work.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Do you disagree and think that the pandemic is getting less dangerous? If so, are you actively monitoring epidemiology and drawing conclusions that are different from me?
Do you agree that the pandemic is getting more dangerous but think it only affects other people, not you / your loved ones?
Or do you agree that the pandemic is getting more dangerous even for you / your loved ones, but it's still worth the risk for the benefits of in-person 5 days school?

Here's why I think things are taking a turn towards the worse:

* the compilation of prediction models (https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/forecasting-us.html) predicts 2700 - 9600 deaths a week. Yes, the highest prediction is still way lower than during the last surge (24000 deaths a week at its peak) but it's still higher than last August. More importantly, if you look at the underlying assumptions of these models, they aren't changing the level of transmission, beyond tying it to mobility of a population or weather. (https://github.com/cdcepi/COVID-19-Forecasts/blob/master/COVID-19_Forecast_Model_Descriptions.md). However, there's a reasonable chance that transmission rates in 2021 are not going to be the way they were in 2020.

* we are finding out that several covid variants are more transmissible -- specifically, "UK" B.1.1.7 (59% - 74% more contagious) (https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2021/03/03/science.abg3055) "South Africa" B.1.351 (50% more) (https://www.newscientist.com/definition/south-african-covid-19-variant/) and "Brazil" P.1 (200% more contagious) (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-brazilvariant/contagious-brazil-covid-19-variant-evades-immunity-scientists-warn-idUSKBN2AU22B).

* P.1 re-infects 25%-60% of people. Vaccines are much less effective against P.1 and B.1.351

* P.1 has been reported in 22 states, B.1.351 has been reported in 30 states, and B.1.1.7 is everywhere in the U.S. (https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/transmission/variant-cases.html)

* Younger people are dying at much higher rates where P.1 is endemic - 3x case fatality rates for ages 20-29, 2x for 30-39, 40-49, 50-59. (https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.03.24.21254046v1)

I'm not saying that I'm certain that all hell is going to break loose....but I am saying that I don't understand how the "open schools now" crowd is so absolutely certain that this isn't a likely outcome.

I am certain that children whose parents die are 10 bazillion times more likely to suffer a learning gap than children whose parents don't die.

Note: I have no formal medical education so I'm in the same boat as the rest of us, trying to figure this out the best I can

Yes, this is rather obvious.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Look, these arguments are pointless. They simply don't care about COVID or the impact on others. They need their needs met. Move on.

Disagree. I think OP's premise is wrong. That doesn't mean that I don't care about covid or the impact on my family, your family, and other families.

BTW, all people need their needs met. If that's your argument, then you're arguing for schools to reopen too. Balancing needs includes looking at covid risks (it's not getting more dangerous) and other risks.

NP here. I understand you disagree, but what do you disagree with? Numbers? Facts? What part?

[Anonymous]

I am demanding that in person education be prioritized. I can't control the other pieces influencing community spread included relaxed restrictions and higher risk behavior.

[Anonymous]

Because the big picture isn’t what matters for schools. What matters for schools is the risk to teachers and other school staff plus students. Teachers and staff are now vaccinated. Children are low risk for serious issues from covid.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Because the big picture isn’t what matters for schools. What matters for schools is the risk to teachers and other school staff plus students. Teachers and staff are now vaccinated. Children are low risk for serious issues from covid.

What about their unvaccinated parents and family members?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Because the big picture isn’t what matters for schools. What matters for schools is the risk to teachers and other school staff plus students. Teachers and staff are now vaccinated. Children are low risk for serious issues from covid.

What about their unvaccinated parents and family members?

Their high risk family members should be getting their vaccines at this point. Hasn’t most of the state opened up for 1B?

I’ve been in the super cautious, I’ll keep my kid online thanks contingent for a long time but it’s absurd to believe that schools are more unsafe now than they were in November. Bringing kids back into buildings right now is exactly what should be happening.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Look, these arguments are pointless. They simply don't care about COVID or the impact on others. They need their needs met. Move on.

Disagree. I think OP's premise is wrong. That doesn't mean that I don't care about covid or the impact on my family, your family, and other families.

BTW, all people need their needs met. If that's your argument, then you're arguing for schools to reopen too. Balancing needs includes looking at covid risks (it's not getting more dangerous) and other risks.

NP here. I understand you disagree, but what do you disagree with? Numbers? Facts? What part?

The variants aren't "more dangerous". The virus is not "getting more dangerous".

It's a pandemic. OP thinks that suddenly means something different now than last March or last September, but it doesn't.

Schools should have reopened with mitigation then. They should reopen with mitigation now. Mitigation is not 2 days or fear. It's masks, which all kids can do (even if some adults cannot), and ventilation.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Look, these arguments are pointless. They simply don't care about COVID or the impact on others. They need their needs met. Move on.

+1,000

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:It's very nice of you to post of that information with links to multiple sources. Unfortunately the 5 days RIGHT NOW brigade isn't really interested in data, or the many, many warnings.
They want 5 days of in-person school RIGHT NOW.
States are lifting mask mandates RIGHT NOW.
People are traveling and gathering RIGHT NOW.
Sure, we could hold on for 2 more months for majority of the population to be vaccinated, and that is what public health officials are urgently pleading for people to do, but nope, people want what they want, and they want it RIGHT NOW.

Exactly. America is the Veruca Salt of countries.