Gov Hogan announcement re schools this week?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I agree that counties have different conditions.

Yesterday I looked up the new cases for each county. It was just one day not a 7 day average (I wish we had these kinds of statistics available as well as positivity rate but right now no one is posting new cases per million per day by county.

Anyhow, it was suprising how high the new cases per million per day were for some counties!

(For comparison purposes, Italy is at THREE new cases per million per day and FLorida is at 552 new cases per million per day)


Worcester: 17/52,000= 326 new cases per million per day

Baltimore City 143/620,000 = 230 new cases per million per day

Howard County 57 / 325,000 = 175 new cases per million per day.

Baltimore County 141/827,000 = 170 new cases per million per day

AA County = 89/580,000= 153 new cases per million per day

Frederick County 40/260,000. 153 new cases per million per day.

PG County 123/909,000 = 135 new cases per million per day

Harford County 29 / 255,000 = 113 new cases per million per day

Garrett County 3/30,000 = 100 new cases per million per day

St Mary's County 11 / 113,000 = 98 new cases per million per day.

MoCo = 89 new cases per million per day

New cases per million per day is a very misleading metric. The result depends on how many tests are administered. If Italy does not have comparable tests administered, then we'd be comparing apples to oranges. That's why positivity rate is more meaningful to me.

Here's Italy's testing rate and positivity info:

Looks like about 500 tests for 100,000 people:



And their test positivity rate is very low too:




How does that compare with Maryland's testing rate and positivity?

I'm bad at math but I see that yesterday Maryland conducted about 29,000 tests We have a population of about 6 million. so 29000/6000000x100000=

483 tests per 100,000. So Italy is doing a little bit more than Maryland.

[Anonymous]

All this info is from the ECDC website

https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/covid-19/country-overviews

These European countries have beaten COVID for the most part. We aren't doing anywhere near as well as they are.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

But at that point you will only be able to change to hybrid if there is room. Teachers need to be assigned for the year. So it may not be an option anymore.

I mean, that seems likely, but it remains to be seen. Will MCPS really say, "Nope, sorry, you have to have remote instruction, there's no room for you."?

Yes, they will, because with half-sized classrooms, there will be a strict limit on how many there can be. It will be easier to switch form hybrid to virtual-only than vice versa

You're basically saying that they will because they will.

So if we limit classroom size and set up classes based on that, you think MCPS will allow you to join later and exceed class size? In this environment? Very unlikely.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

But at that point you will only be able to change to hybrid if there is room. Teachers need to be assigned for the year. So it may not be an option anymore.

I mean, that seems likely, but it remains to be seen. Will MCPS really say, "Nope, sorry, you have to have remote instruction, there's no room for you."?

Yes, they will, because with half-sized classrooms, there will be a strict limit on how many there can be. It will be easier to switch form hybrid to virtual-only than vice versa

You're basically saying that they will because they will.

So if we limit classroom size and set up classes based on that, you think MCPS will allow you to join later and exceed class size? In this environment? Very unlikely.

At this point, it seems highly unlikely that MCPS is going to have anybody in school this year at all. If MCPS does have anybody in school this year, though, who knows what will happen. It doesn't seem likely to me that in who-knows-when-if-ever, they will adhere firmly to an infeasible plan hastily thrown together in July.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

I've been tracking for some counties using a 7- or 10-day average. I just use Excel as it's not easy to find. The ones I checked, and MoCo has about 2x higher new case rate per million. I think single day is not totally a good picture because many testing sites only operate during the weekdays, but I understand why you used it -- the 7-day average data is not readily available.

Would you post your results from time to time on the Maryland is Trending Pooly Thread?

I know single day is not an accurate picture of course, but it was just to show that it probably isn't just one or two counties that have increasing cases. So many of them do!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I agree that counties have different conditions.

Yesterday I looked up the new cases for each county. It was just one day not a 7 day average (I wish we had these kinds of statistics available as well as positivity rate but right now no one is posting new cases per million per day by county.

Anyhow, it was suprising how high the new cases per million per day were for some counties!

(For comparison purposes, Italy is at THREE new cases per million per day and FLorida is at 552 new cases per million per day)


Worcester: 17/52,000= 326 new cases per million per day

Baltimore City 143/620,000 = 230 new cases per million per day

Howard County 57 / 325,000 = 175 new cases per million per day.

Baltimore County 141/827,000 = 170 new cases per million per day

AA County = 89/580,000= 153 new cases per million per day

Frederick County 40/260,000. 153 new cases per million per day.

PG County 123/909,000 = 135 new cases per million per day

Harford County 29 / 255,000 = 113 new cases per million per day

Garrett County 3/30,000 = 100 new cases per million per day

St Mary's County 11 / 113,000 = 98 new cases per million per day.

MoCo = 89 new cases per million per day

New cases per million per day is a very misleading metric. The result depends on how many tests are administered. If Italy does not have comparable tests administered, then we'd be comparing apples to oranges. That's why positivity rate is more meaningful to me.

Positivity rate also meaningless. I know hospitalization rates lag, but cases among low risk groups are a good thing, especially during the summer. I hope bars and gyms stay open. - MPH

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Totally agree with PP. If you go to coronavirus.maryland.gov, you will see that Maryland just administered 28K tests per day. It used to be less than 5K. Catching more cases is only natural. The positivity rate has been stable, NOT increasing. In MoCo positivity rate continues to drop, not as fast as before, but that's expected as positivity rate dips below 4%.

No. In Maryland, we are having to test more and more and more to keep that positivity rate under 5%. That means that cases are increasing.

Look at this graph showing positivity rate and number of tests. See how we have been able to keep the positivity rate below 5%.... only by testing more and more people. The past month there's a rise in number of tests.



The reason we have to keep testing more and more people to get a 5% positivity rate is that cases are climbing!

Low positivity is an indiciation that your state is doing a good job of trying to catch all the cases. But the other factor you need to consider is how many cases there are, in fact, in your state.

The number of cases in MD is RISING. It isn't rising because we are testing more. It is rising because more people are getting the virus.

These are the goals we want to look for: Positivity rate of 2% AND new cases per million of 30 per day, or fewer. If we have 5% positivity rate that isn't stable in the long run.

You sounds insane. They aren’t recruiting people to test to lower the positivity rate. It is what it is because that is the number of people seeking tests.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:
Positivity rate also meaningless. I know hospitalization rates lag, but cases among low risk groups are a good thing, especially during the summer. I hope bars and gyms stay open. - MPH

What's your rationale there, MPH?

Lots of spread among low risk groups means more virus in the population.

Do you expect they magically won't spread it to higher risk groups for some reason? Older family members, teachers and college professors in their schools; custodians at their schools and workplaces, health care workers who interact with them?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:You guys have to stop focusing on JUST the positivity rate. Think about it. If we truly had very few cases in our state, then increasing testing should send our positivity rate to less than 1% The more you test, the lower it would go, because there just aren't a lot of cases anymore.

But that's not what is happening. The more we test the more cases we are finding. Cases that shouldn't be out there.

Don't tell me "hospitalizations and deaths are stable". Sure they are. Because a month ago we had a lot fewer new cases per day. We just came out of a lockdown. And spread right now is happening in young people who don't get that sick.

But in another 4 weeks we will see hospitalizations rise again as the 20-30 year olds spread it to their employers and aunts and uncles and the custodians at their workplace.

Please do some research on covid. Since day one, there have been many more cases than tests available, and people with mild and asymptomatic cases often do not seek testing. In such situations, positivity rates are much more significant than raw case numbers. This is true everywhere in the world.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

I've been tracking for some counties using a 7- or 10-day average. I just use Excel as it's not easy to find. The ones I checked, and MoCo has about 2x higher new case rate per million. I think single day is not totally a good picture because many testing sites only operate during the weekdays, but I understand why you used it -- the 7-day average data is not readily available.

Would you post your results from time to time on the Maryland is Trending Pooly Thread?

I know single day is not an accurate picture of course, but it was just to show that it probably isn't just one or two counties that have increasing cases. So many of them do!

Jesus, you people are depressing, cherry picking generally positive data for whatever kernel of negativity you can find, you really need some hobbies outside of pandemic porn.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

You sounds insane. They aren’t recruiting people to test to lower the positivity rate. It is what it is because that is the number of people seeking tests.

Please don't insult me.

MD Department of Health is encouraging people without symptoms to get tested.

Dated July 16 2020

https://phpa.health.maryland.gov/Documents/coronavirus_testing_FAQ.pdf

Should I get a test?

Everyone is encouraged to get a test – even those who do not exhibit symptoms or have a
particular reason to suspect exposure.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I agree that counties have different conditions.

Yesterday I looked up the new cases for each county. It was just one day not a 7 day average (I wish we had these kinds of statistics available as well as positivity rate but right now no one is posting new cases per million per day by county.

Anyhow, it was suprising how high the new cases per million per day were for some counties!

(For comparison purposes, Italy is at THREE new cases per million per day and FLorida is at 552 new cases per million per day)


Worcester: 17/52,000= 326 new cases per million per day

Baltimore City 143/620,000 = 230 new cases per million per day

Howard County 57 / 325,000 = 175 new cases per million per day.

Baltimore County 141/827,000 = 170 new cases per million per day

AA County = 89/580,000= 153 new cases per million per day

Frederick County 40/260,000. 153 new cases per million per day.

PG County 123/909,000 = 135 new cases per million per day

Harford County 29 / 255,000 = 113 new cases per million per day

Garrett County 3/30,000 = 100 new cases per million per day

St Mary's County 11 / 113,000 = 98 new cases per million per day.

MoCo = 89 new cases per million per day

New cases per million per day is a very misleading metric. The result depends on how many tests are administered. If Italy does not have comparable tests administered, then we'd be comparing apples to oranges. That's why positivity rate is more meaningful to me.

Here's Italy's testing rate and positivity info:

Looks like about 500 tests for 100,000 people:



And their test positivity rate is very low too:




How does that compare with Maryland's testing rate and positivity?

I'm bad at math but I see that yesterday Maryland conducted about 29,000 tests We have a population of about 6 million. so 29000/6000000x100000=

483 tests per 100,000. So Italy is doing a little bit more than Maryland.

Italy is doing so well now because they had the highest death rate per capita in the world from covid. Not sure why you would be pointing to them as an exemplar unless you want us to unleash the virus on all the nursing homes or something similar.

[Anonymous]

I'm not saying that the Department of Health is actively trying to hide spread of COVID by testing lots and lots of asymptomatic people, like it is some kind of plot.

Just want people to realize that the fact that our positivity rate has remained at about 5% doesn't mean cases are flat. We only got that result because we are testing more and more widely. And we are of course picking up more positive cases. Because cases are, in fact, going up. Spread is happening.

Now, a PP MPH poster has told us he or she is OK with spread going up, because it is among low risk young people, mostly. That's fine. Let's be sure to share that information widely though.

CASES IN MD ARE GOING UP. They aren't flat at all. The rise isn't just because we are testing more.

As cases go up and spread gets worse, older people and more high risk people are more likely to be affected. Then hospitalizations will rise again.

We can stop this NOW or we will have to stop it LATER. The earlier we get things to a very low level that we can live with (as in Europe) the easier it will be on us. The sooner we can reopen schools.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

But at that point you will only be able to change to hybrid if there is room. Teachers need to be assigned for the year. So it may not be an option anymore.

I mean, that seems likely, but it remains to be seen. Will MCPS really say, "Nope, sorry, you have to have remote instruction, there's no room for you."?

Yes, they will, because with half-sized classrooms, there will be a strict limit on how many there can be. It will be easier to switch form hybrid to virtual-only than vice versa

You're basically saying that they will because they will.

Hybrid is based on safety through limiting the number of kids in a classroom to enable social distancing, what part of that don’t you understand.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I'm not saying that the Department of Health is actively trying to hide spread of COVID by testing lots and lots of asymptomatic people, like it is some kind of plot.

Just want people to realize that the fact that our positivity rate has remained at about 5% doesn't mean cases are flat. We only got that result because we are testing more and more widely. And we are of course picking up more positive cases. Because cases are, in fact, going up. Spread is happening.

Now, a PP MPH poster has told us he or she is OK with spread going up, because it is among low risk young people, mostly. That's fine. Let's be sure to share that information widely though.

CASES IN MD ARE GOING UP. They aren't flat at all. The rise isn't just because we are testing more.

As cases go up and spread gets worse, older people and more high risk people are more likely to be affected. Then hospitalizations will rise again.

We can stop this NOW or we will have to stop it LATER. The earlier we get things to a very low level that we can live with (as in Europe) the easier it will be on us. The sooner we can reopen schools.

You don’t understand how this works at all, and don’t seem open to learning why you are wrong. But you are wrong.