Who do you think is going to win and why?

[Anonymous]

I'm afraid Trump may win the electoral college, because MAGAs. And then we will all really be screwed, countrywide.

[Anonymous]

Trump will win - very close popular vote could go either way. I predict 49.4 trump 48.7 Harris.

Trump will win NC, HA. AZ, NV and PA.

[Anonymous]

If I have to bet, I think Trump will win the same margin as in 2016.

He didn't win in 2016 (the popular vote, anyway).

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Trump will win - very close popular vote could go either way. I predict 49.4 trump 48.7 Harris.

Trump will win NC, HA. AZ, NV and PA.

And we will all be screwed. His economic plans will jack up prices even more. I'm afraid this will actually happen, because most current Trump voters aren't very well informed.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Trump will win - very close popular vote could go either way. I predict 49.4 trump 48.7 Harris.

Trump will win NC, HA. AZ, NV and PA.

This, exactly. And Trump will eek out either MI or WI but not both.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Economist here. Not a political scientist but if I were a gambling gal and had to put my money down, you can rarely go wrong with, "It's the economy, stupid." as a predictor. So I'd have to put my money on Trump as the winner.

The price of groceries is killing a lot of lower and middle-income families. The latest data on FHA loan delinquency and credit card delinquency is actually quite scary. I make good money and am thankful for that, so I can absorb it, but my blood pressure still rises when I have to pay $7 for a three pack of cucumbers. Chuck roast has gone from mid $4/lb to $6.95 at Costco.

I can't even imagine how frightening the grocery bills are for some young couples just starting in their careers. I remember the early days of married life and entry-level salaries and there were stressful days and sleepless nights. I don't regret it. It's a rite of passage to struggle and save when young and build a nest egg for your golden years, but that was in the boom years of the 90s. Thinking about going through that with grocery prices now literally makes me feel sick.

My analysis of whether Biden/Harris are to blame for the inflation is mostly "yes". She cast the deciding vote on a lot of spending, and that's inflationary for sure.

Trump will inherit an economy of delinquent bills and will be falsely blamed for a coming recession. However, if he exacerbates the situation with tariffs - that's his own stupid fault.

So would Trump or Harris be better for the economy, concretely?

You're replying to me. My crystal ball is hazy. All I know is that the mounting consumer debt is very worrisome. I don't think we're out of the woods for a recession, and as a federal employee with a secure job it's a selfish thing to say, but a downturn would at least break the inflation even more. But that's selfish because I know it's happening due to lots of people without guaranteed jobs falling on very hard times and having to spend far less. It's going to be a bitter pill to swallow. Anecdotally, I'm already seeing it when I walk around and check prices on luxury goods and hobby purchases like RVs, hot tubs, high-end barbeque grills, wristwatches, etc. That's the first thing to go. Then people working in those industries get laid off. Then it trickles down to hospitality and restaurant workers, and it just snowballs from there.

I have moved all of my TSP "S" small cap holdings to "C" on the premise that the S&P 500 firms will weather the storm better, but I'm too young to be holding any short-term stuff. Just keep buying C fund stocks through any crash, and thank heavens I don't work in private industry. They make a lot more than me in boom times, but I'm always happy to be in a more risk averse career when the busts happen. I'd rather live in a smaller house but know I'll always have a roof over my head and two reliable cars.

My best guess is Trump will be decidedly better for the economy, but he's got to be careful with the tariff talk. It's hazy what he plans to do there, but not as worrisome to me as Harris' even more ill-defined comments about cutting costs and "corporate greed". Keep government the hell away from the supply/demand equilibrium point. Trump at least has considerable, real-world experience in business. Harris sounds like she never took microeconomics 101 and doesn't understand the first thing about how a firm works. She buys into this mythology of the "evil rich" and the "greedy corporations" who don't pay their fair share. That's just pandering to the ignorant voters on the Left the same way Trump also panders to ignorance, but I find her pandering to be more scary from a financial perspective.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:55% Trump
45% Harris
I suspect there are secret Trump voters.

This. I know a lot of registered Democrats who vote Republican. This is a big thing in Maryland. It is useless to be registered as a Republican in Maryland. Registering as a Democrat allows you to vote and have impact in local elections.

Additionally, registering as a Democrat shields you from the hate speech of many and allows your children to have play dates.

Omg. This. 10000 percent

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Trump will win - very close popular vote could go either way. I predict 49.4 trump 48.7 Harris.

Trump will win NC, HA. AZ, NV and PA.

This, exactly. And Trump will eke out either MI or WI but not both.

Why not both? My question is not those states but whether Trump can expand his victory into other states that have long tilted blue.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Trump.

He'll win GA, NC, AZ, and NV. Then Harris will need to win all three of MI, WI, and PA and I don't see that happening.

Trump is terrible, but Democrats need to realize how much they've failed to read the pulse of America over the past four years - from illegal migrants to the middle class getting wrecked by inflation to stupid identity politics to soft on violent crime and a million other reasons. Democrats have been completely detached from the concerns of every day Americans. The only thing they have going for them is Dobbs but it won't be enough. Americans don't want what progressives are trying to impose on them. And they will vote for the imbecile instead.

+1

I’m not sure which way the election will go (all presidential elections will be close given the current polarization) but running against Trump (clearly a terrible candidate) this election should not be as close as it is.. I agree 100% with the 2nd paragraph. Also Harris is an absolutely terrible candidate and has made a lot of mistakes, which doesn’t help D’s at all.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Economist here. Not a political scientist but if I were a gambling gal and had to put my money down, you can rarely go wrong with, "It's the economy, stupid." as a predictor. So I'd have to put my money on Trump as the winner.

The price of groceries is killing a lot of lower and middle-income families. The latest data on FHA loan delinquency and credit card delinquency is actually quite scary. I make good money and am thankful for that, so I can absorb it, but my blood pressure still rises when I have to pay $7 for a three pack of cucumbers. Chuck roast has gone from mid $4/lb to $6.95 at Costco.

I can't even imagine how frightening the grocery bills are for some young couples just starting in their careers. I remember the early days of married life and entry-level salaries and there were stressful days and sleepless nights. I don't regret it. It's a rite of passage to struggle and save when young and build a nest egg for your golden years, but that was in the boom years of the 90s. Thinking about going through that with grocery prices now literally makes me feel sick.

My analysis of whether Biden/Harris are to blame for the inflation is mostly "yes". She cast the deciding vote on a lot of spending, and that's inflationary for sure.

Trump will inherit an economy of delinquent bills and will be falsely blamed for a coming recession. However, if he exacerbates the situation with tariffs - that's his own stupid fault.

So would Trump or Harris be better for the economy, concretely?

You're replying to me. My crystal ball is hazy. All I know is that the mounting consumer debt is very worrisome. I don't think we're out of the woods for a recession, and as a federal employee with a secure job it's a selfish thing to say, but a downturn would at least break the inflation even more. But that's selfish because I know it's happening due to lots of people without guaranteed jobs falling on very hard times and having to spend far less. It's going to be a bitter pill to swallow. Anecdotally, I'm already seeing it when I walk around and check prices on luxury goods and hobby purchases like RVs, hot tubs, high-end barbeque grills, wristwatches, etc. That's the first thing to go. Then people working in those industries get laid off. Then it trickles down to hospitality and restaurant workers, and it just snowballs from there.

I have moved all of my TSP "S" small cap holdings to "C" on the premise that the S&P 500 firms will weather the storm better, but I'm too young to be holding any short-term stuff. Just keep buying C fund stocks through any crash, and thank heavens I don't work in private industry. They make a lot more than me in boom times, but I'm always happy to be in a more risk averse career when the busts happen. I'd rather live in a smaller house but know I'll always have a roof over my head and two reliable cars.

My best guess is Trump will be decidedly better for the economy, but he's got to be careful with the tariff talk. It's hazy what he plans to do there, but not as worrisome to me as Harris' even more ill-defined comments about cutting costs and "corporate greed". Keep government the hell away from the supply/demand equilibrium point. Trump at least has considerable, real-world experience in business. Harris sounds like she never took microeconomics 101 and doesn't understand the first thing about how a firm works. She buys into this mythology of the "evil rich" and the "greedy corporations" who don't pay their fair share. That's just pandering to the ignorant voters on the Left the same way Trump also panders to ignorance, but I find her pandering to be more scary from a financial perspective.

Trump has experience in a single company--a family-run business that was handed to him. He has amassed 6 bankruptcies and 26 business failures. He is a business failure. If he were applying for the job of CEO, no business would take him. And his comments at the Economic Club of Chicago show how ignorant he is about economics. Here's the transcript if you'd like to peruse it: https://www.rev.com/blog/transcripts/trump-speaks-in-chicago
I would argue that your "best guess" would be wrong.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Trump will win - very close popular vote could go either way. I predict 49.4 trump 48.7 Harris.

Trump will win NC, HA. AZ, NV and PA.

Trump will not get the popular vote.

[Anonymous]

I think Harris will win but it will be so, so close that MAGA nutters will lose their minds.

I'm in NC. I think it will go to Trump, with the caveat that we have a really insane gubernatorial Republican candidate, so it's possible people really come out in droves to reject Robinson, and in the process reject Trump as well.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Economist here. Not a political scientist but if I were a gambling gal and had to put my money down, you can rarely go wrong with, "It's the economy, stupid." as a predictor. So I'd have to put my money on Trump as the winner.

The price of groceries is killing a lot of lower and middle-income families. The latest data on FHA loan delinquency and credit card delinquency is actually quite scary. I make good money and am thankful for that, so I can absorb it, but my blood pressure still rises when I have to pay $7 for a three pack of cucumbers. Chuck roast has gone from mid $4/lb to $6.95 at Costco.

I can't even imagine how frightening the grocery bills are for some young couples just starting in their careers. I remember the early days of married life and entry-level salaries and there were stressful days and sleepless nights. I don't regret it. It's a rite of passage to struggle and save when young and build a nest egg for your golden years, but that was in the boom years of the 90s. Thinking about going through that with grocery prices now literally makes me feel sick.

My analysis of whether Biden/Harris are to blame for the inflation is mostly "yes". She cast the deciding vote on a lot of spending, and that's inflationary for sure.

Trump will inherit an economy of delinquent bills and will be falsely blamed for a coming recession. However, if he exacerbates the situation with tariffs - that's his own stupid fault.

So would Trump or Harris be better for the economy, concretely?

You're replying to me. My crystal ball is hazy. All I know is that the mounting consumer debt is very worrisome. I don't think we're out of the woods for a recession, and as a federal employee with a secure job it's a selfish thing to say, but a downturn would at least break the inflation even more. But that's selfish because I know it's happening due to lots of people without guaranteed jobs falling on very hard times and having to spend far less. It's going to be a bitter pill to swallow. Anecdotally, I'm already seeing it when I walk around and check prices on luxury goods and hobby purchases like RVs, hot tubs, high-end barbeque grills, wristwatches, etc. That's the first thing to go. Then people working in those industries get laid off. Then it trickles down to hospitality and restaurant workers, and it just snowballs from there.

I have moved all of my TSP "S" small cap holdings to "C" on the premise that the S&P 500 firms will weather the storm better, but I'm too young to be holding any short-term stuff. Just keep buying C fund stocks through any crash, and thank heavens I don't work in private industry. They make a lot more than me in boom times, but I'm always happy to be in a more risk averse career when the busts happen. I'd rather live in a smaller house but know I'll always have a roof over my head and two reliable cars.

My best guess is Trump will be decidedly better for the economy, but he's got to be careful with the tariff talk. It's hazy what he plans to do there, but not as worrisome to me as Harris' even more ill-defined comments about cutting costs and "corporate greed". Keep government the hell away from the supply/demand equilibrium point. Trump at least has considerable, real-world experience in business. Harris sounds like she never took microeconomics 101 and doesn't understand the first thing about how a firm works. She buys into this mythology of the "evil rich" and the "greedy corporations" who don't pay their fair share. That's just pandering to the ignorant voters on the Left the same way Trump also panders to ignorance, but I find her pandering to be more scary from a financial perspective.

Good luck with the secure government job!

[Anonymous]

Trump, potentially both electoral and popular vote. But definitely electoral.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I think Harris will lose because of Gaza

I don’t think most Americans give a cr*p about a dispute that’s been going on forever. Most Americans support Israel’s right to exists. This is a niche cause.

Agree