Who do you think is going to win and why?

[Anonymous]

I think if the election was held last week, Trump would have won. And if the election was held now, Harris will win.

The reason is based on contextual cues to gauge relative momentum. Trump had some favorable polls and the trends were in his direction and the market responded accordingly, stocks up and bonds down (yields up). The “Trump Trade”. In the past few days there has been some polls showing Trumps momentum to have halted and as a result, the stock market has responded accordingly. Stocks have been down three days in a row.

Maybe President Harris will eventually be good for stocks. But that doesn’t matter. Right now investors, using a lot more resources than anyone could have to implement trading strategies based on election outcomes are tipping their hats.

If Harris wins, I would fully expect the market to fall heavily after Election Day through the inauguration.

[Anonymous]

Unfortunately Harris IMO, largely due to the abortion issue and better GOTV operation.

[Anonymous]

Trump will win. Not a hard call. First, the polls clearly show he is gaining momentum in the home stretch. That is where you want to be. Second, Kamala Harris and Tim Walz are both disasters. They had some unwarranted hype for a while, but every time people hear them speak, it becomes increasingly clear that neither of them is qualified for the job. It's shocking how inept Harris is for someone who has been in national politics for a while. She can't even credibly respond to basic questions. Really bad. Third, as a general matter, things are not good, and there are credible reasons for blaming the Democrats for the situation.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Trump will win. Not a hard call. First, the polls clearly show he is gaining momentum in the home stretch. That is where you want to be. Second, Kamala Harris and Tim Walz are both disasters. They had some unwarranted hype for a while, but every time people hear them speak, it becomes increasingly clear that neither of them is qualified for the job. It's shocking how inept Harris is for someone who has been in national politics for a while. She can't even credibly respond to basic questions. Really bad. Third, as a general matter, things are not good, and there are credible reasons for blaming the Democrats for the situation.

PP here. Should have also noted that Dem Senate candidates in swing states are now avoiding Biden and Harris and running ads showcasing their ability to work with Trump. That is not a good sign for Harris.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Dude she is married to a Jew! Wake up!

Guessing they noticed that fact in Dearborn. Possibly explaining a notable lack of enthusiasm for her in that community.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Trump will win. Not a hard call. First, the polls clearly show he is gaining momentum in the home stretch. That is where you want to be. Second, Kamala Harris and Tim Walz are both disasters. They had some unwarranted hype for a while, but every time people hear them speak, it becomes increasingly clear that neither of them is qualified for the job. It's shocking how inept Harris is for someone who has been in national politics for a while. She can't even credibly respond to basic questions. Really bad. Third, as a general matter, things are not good, and there are credible reasons for blaming the Democrats for the situation.

PP here. Should have also noted that Dem Senate candidates in swing states are now avoiding Biden and Harris and running ads showcasing their ability to work with Trump. That is not a good sign for Harris.

Harris’s lack of competence really should have been a topic more in discussion when Biden dropped out. It’s evident seeing her speak that she’s unprepared. She reads her remarks like it’s the first time she’s ever seen those words and frequently uses the wrong syllable for emphasis or inflection.

The weird thing is that there was a lot of reporting just 2 years ago about how she could not manage her VP office and that people were quitting in droves due to the toxic way she manages her teams.

[Anonymous]

Economist here. Not a political scientist but if I were a gambling gal and had to put my money down, you can rarely go wrong with, "It's the economy, stupid." as a predictor. So I'd have to put my money on Trump as the winner.

The price of groceries is killing a lot of lower and middle-income families. The latest data on FHA loan delinquency and credit card delinquency is actually quite scary. I make good money and am thankful for that, so I can absorb it, but my blood pressure still rises when I have to pay $7 for a three pack of cucumbers. Chuck roast has gone from mid $4/lb to $6.95 at Costco.

I can't even imagine how frightening the grocery bills are for some young couples just starting in their careers. I remember the early days of married life and entry-level salaries and there were stressful days and sleepless nights. I don't regret it. It's a rite of passage to struggle and save when young and build a nest egg for your golden years, but that was in the boom years of the 90s. Thinking about going through that with grocery prices now literally makes me feel sick.

My analysis of whether Biden/Harris are to blame for the inflation is mostly "yes". She cast the deciding vote on a lot of spending, and that's inflationary for sure.

Trump will inherit an economy of delinquent bills and will be falsely blamed for a coming recession. However, if he exacerbates the situation with tariffs - that's his own stupid fault.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Economist here. Not a political scientist but if I were a gambling gal and had to put my money down, you can rarely go wrong with, "It's the economy, stupid." as a predictor. So I'd have to put my money on Trump as the winner.

The price of groceries is killing a lot of lower and middle-income families. The latest data on FHA loan delinquency and credit card delinquency is actually quite scary. I make good money and am thankful for that, so I can absorb it, but my blood pressure still rises when I have to pay $7 for a three pack of cucumbers. Chuck roast has gone from mid $4/lb to $6.95 at Costco.

I can't even imagine how frightening the grocery bills are for some young couples just starting in their careers. I remember the early days of married life and entry-level salaries and there were stressful days and sleepless nights. I don't regret it. It's a rite of passage to struggle and save when young and build a nest egg for your golden years, but that was in the boom years of the 90s. Thinking about going through that with grocery prices now literally makes me feel sick.

My analysis of whether Biden/Harris are to blame for the inflation is mostly "yes". She cast the deciding vote on a lot of spending, and that's inflationary for sure.

Trump will inherit an economy of delinquent bills and will be falsely blamed for a coming recession. However, if he exacerbates the situation with tariffs - that's his own stupid fault.

So would Trump or Harris be better for the economy, concretely?

[Anonymous]

Harris. Trump already lost in 2020. He is not more popular.

[Anonymous]

Trump.

He'll win GA, NC, AZ, and NV. Then Harris will need to win all three of MI, WI, and PA and I don't see that happening.

Trump is terrible, but Democrats need to realize how much they've failed to read the pulse of America over the past four years - from illegal migrants to the middle class getting wrecked by inflation to stupid identity politics to soft on violent crime and a million other reasons. Democrats have been completely detached from the concerns of every day Americans. The only thing they have going for them is Dobbs but it won't be enough. Americans don't want what progressives are trying to impose on them. And they will vote for the imbecile instead.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Harris

I don't know anyone who voted "for" Biden. Everybody voted "against" Trump. That hasn't changed. They will vote against Trump again.

Correct. Except that there are some die-hard "woman of color" as President fans, especially in the anti-abortion era we live in today.

[Anonymous]

If I have to bet, I think Trump will win the same margin as in 2016. But Harris could also eke out a close win of 270 to 268.

The growth rate of inflation is coming down. But I don't think most swing states voters don't care about that, the price is not coming down any time soon.

[Anonymous]

If I had to bet, I would bet for Harris. But it could also be too early for this country to elect a woman president.

[Anonymous]

What do people think Trump is going to do about prices? He can’t do anything about anything. He is completely useless.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I think Trump will win because Kamala Harris has snatched defeat from the jaws of victory. Her campaign has made one blunder after another, and the whole strategy of keeping her away from lots of appearances and TV has really been the crowning screw up.

She also has spent way, wayyyyy too much time talking about Trump, instead of what HER vision and plans are.

There’s a million people on the news shows that go after Trump 24/7. That’s covered. She doesn’t need to do it herself.


The whole campaign has been a disaster. Joe Biden would’ve been better.

Every word up there is a lie.