Impact on schools with expanding housing options in single family zones

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Anybody interested in actual data on this?

chrome-extension://efaidnbmnnnibpcajpcglclefindmkaj/https://montgomeryplanningboard.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/FY25-Annual-School-Test-School-Utilization-Report_6-20-24_Final.pdf

"At the elementary school level, countywide enrollment already peaked in 2017, and saw a sudden decline during and after the pandemic. While enrollment is slowly starting to pick up again, projections indicate that it will not be returning to the pre-pandemic peak level in the foreseeable future. At the end of the six-year CIP cycle, there is projected to be more than 6,600 surplus seats available across all elementary schools in the county."

"At the middle school level, the total capacity across all schools has been sufficient for the countywide enrollment over the past 15 years. Countywide projections indicate that the enrollment, which had been declining since the pandemic, will return to its pre-pandemic peak level at the end of the six-year CIP cycle, but there will be more than 2,400 surplus seats available collectively nonetheless (see Figure 3). "

"The county experienced strong enrollment growth at the high school level over the past decade, but the latest projections indicate that that growth will start tapering off in the next few years. Once the capital projects at Crown, Northwood, and Woodward high schools are complete in 2027, there is projected to be a surplus of over 2,800 seats countywide, despite the delay of the proposed projects at Damascus, Magruder, and Wootton High Schools (see Figure 1). "

Surplus in those schools west of I-270? Because most all the other ones elsewhere in county are over capacity.

It may feel that way, but it's not true.

Then you haven't been to those schools. Is this Taylor himself??

[Anonymous]

Publics are for losers

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Anybody interested in actual data on this?

chrome-extension://efaidnbmnnnibpcajpcglclefindmkaj/https://montgomeryplanningboard.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/FY25-Annual-School-Test-School-Utilization-Report_6-20-24_Final.pdf

"At the elementary school level, countywide enrollment already peaked in 2017, and saw a sudden decline during and after the pandemic. While enrollment is slowly starting to pick up again, projections indicate that it will not be returning to the pre-pandemic peak level in the foreseeable future. At the end of the six-year CIP cycle, there is projected to be more than 6,600 surplus seats available across all elementary schools in the county."

"At the middle school level, the total capacity across all schools has been sufficient for the countywide enrollment over the past 15 years. Countywide projections indicate that the enrollment, which had been declining since the pandemic, will return to its pre-pandemic peak level at the end of the six-year CIP cycle, but there will be more than 2,400 surplus seats available collectively nonetheless (see Figure 3). "

"The county experienced strong enrollment growth at the high school level over the past decade, but the latest projections indicate that that growth will start tapering off in the next few years. Once the capital projects at Crown, Northwood, and Woodward high schools are complete in 2027, there is projected to be a surplus of over 2,800 seats countywide, despite the delay of the proposed projects at Damascus, Magruder, and Wootton High Schools (see Figure 1). "

Surplus in those schools west of I-270? Because most all the other ones elsewhere in county are over capacity.

It may feel that way, but it's not true.

Then you haven't been to those schools. Is this Taylor himself??

Are some schools east of 270 over capacity? Yes. Are "most all" of the schools east of 270 over capacity? No.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Anybody interested in actual data on this?

chrome-extension://efaidnbmnnnibpcajpcglclefindmkaj/https://montgomeryplanningboard.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/FY25-Annual-School-Test-School-Utilization-Report_6-20-24_Final.pdf

"At the elementary school level, countywide enrollment already peaked in 2017, and saw a sudden decline during and after the pandemic. While enrollment is slowly starting to pick up again, projections indicate that it will not be returning to the pre-pandemic peak level in the foreseeable future. At the end of the six-year CIP cycle, there is projected to be more than 6,600 surplus seats available across all elementary schools in the county."

"At the middle school level, the total capacity across all schools has been sufficient for the countywide enrollment over the past 15 years. Countywide projections indicate that the enrollment, which had been declining since the pandemic, will return to its pre-pandemic peak level at the end of the six-year CIP cycle, but there will be more than 2,400 surplus seats available collectively nonetheless (see Figure 3). "

"The county experienced strong enrollment growth at the high school level over the past decade, but the latest projections indicate that that growth will start tapering off in the next few years. Once the capital projects at Crown, Northwood, and Woodward high schools are complete in 2027, there is projected to be a surplus of over 2,800 seats countywide, despite the delay of the proposed projects at Damascus, Magruder, and Wootton High Schools (see Figure 1). "

Surplus in those schools west of I-270? Because most all the other ones elsewhere in county are over capacity.

It may feel that way, but it's not true.

Then you haven't been to those schools. Is this Taylor himself??

Are some schools east of 270 over capacity? Yes. Are "most all" of the schools east of 270 over capacity? No.

+1 this is all in the CIP. You can see which schools are over capacity and, for example in the DCC it is definitely not most ESs

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Anybody interested in actual data on this?

chrome-extension://efaidnbmnnnibpcajpcglclefindmkaj/https://montgomeryplanningboard.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/FY25-Annual-School-Test-School-Utilization-Report_6-20-24_Final.pdf

"At the elementary school level, countywide enrollment already peaked in 2017, and saw a sudden decline during and after the pandemic. While enrollment is slowly starting to pick up again, projections indicate that it will not be returning to the pre-pandemic peak level in the foreseeable future. At the end of the six-year CIP cycle, there is projected to be more than 6,600 surplus seats available across all elementary schools in the county."

"At the middle school level, the total capacity across all schools has been sufficient for the countywide enrollment over the past 15 years. Countywide projections indicate that the enrollment, which had been declining since the pandemic, will return to its pre-pandemic peak level at the end of the six-year CIP cycle, but there will be more than 2,400 surplus seats available collectively nonetheless (see Figure 3). "

"The county experienced strong enrollment growth at the high school level over the past decade, but the latest projections indicate that that growth will start tapering off in the next few years. Once the capital projects at Crown, Northwood, and Woodward high schools are complete in 2027, there is projected to be a surplus of over 2,800 seats countywide, despite the delay of the proposed projects at Damascus, Magruder, and Wootton High Schools (see Figure 1). "

That's across the system. There is and will still be plenty of overcrowding at individual schools, especially in the close-in areas they are targeting. Meanwhile:

Those same areas don't have great candidate sites for additional facilities, especially where it wouldn't strip the area of other infrastructure/public services, like parks (also over-subscribed for things like sports and often under-maintained).

Many schools in those areas deal with long-term portables.

The county doesn't properly fund the CIP request, pretty much ever, so things just get pushed out / get worse.

MCPS doesn't even bother to put a request/plan in front of the County Council that would fully address the issue / ensure adequacy -- only the most desperate situations (perhaps with a sprinkling of favored projects) end up included.

I'd be interested in actual data, but Planning has no interest in those inconvenient truths as they try to gloss over the issues in their pursuit of densifying detached SFH neighborhoods.

Those areas are choosing to be overcrowded by fighting attempts to redraw boundaries.

Yes, Highland View ES families have spent millions to oppose such relief of their overcrowding

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Anybody interested in actual data on this?

chrome-extension://efaidnbmnnnibpcajpcglclefindmkaj/https://montgomeryplanningboard.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/FY25-Annual-School-Test-School-Utilization-Report_6-20-24_Final.pdf

"At the elementary school level, countywide enrollment already peaked in 2017, and saw a sudden decline during and after the pandemic. While enrollment is slowly starting to pick up again, projections indicate that it will not be returning to the pre-pandemic peak level in the foreseeable future. At the end of the six-year CIP cycle, there is projected to be more than 6,600 surplus seats available across all elementary schools in the county."

"At the middle school level, the total capacity across all schools has been sufficient for the countywide enrollment over the past 15 years. Countywide projections indicate that the enrollment, which had been declining since the pandemic, will return to its pre-pandemic peak level at the end of the six-year CIP cycle, but there will be more than 2,400 surplus seats available collectively nonetheless (see Figure 3). "

"The county experienced strong enrollment growth at the high school level over the past decade, but the latest projections indicate that that growth will start tapering off in the next few years. Once the capital projects at Crown, Northwood, and Woodward high schools are complete in 2027, there is projected to be a surplus of over 2,800 seats countywide, despite the delay of the proposed projects at Damascus, Magruder, and Wootton High Schools (see Figure 1). "

That's across the system. There is and will still be plenty of overcrowding at individual schools, especially in the close-in areas they are targeting. Meanwhile:

Those same areas don't have great candidate sites for additional facilities, especially where it wouldn't strip the area of other infrastructure/public services, like parks (also over-subscribed for things like sports and often under-maintained).

Many schools in those areas deal with long-term portables.

The county doesn't properly fund the CIP request, pretty much ever, so things just get pushed out / get worse.

MCPS doesn't even bother to put a request/plan in front of the County Council that would fully address the issue / ensure adequacy -- only the most desperate situations (perhaps with a sprinkling of favored projects) end up included.

I'd be interested in actual data, but Planning has no interest in those inconvenient truths as they try to gloss over the issues in their pursuit of densifying detached SFH neighborhoods.

Those areas are choosing to be overcrowded by fighting attempts to redraw boundaries.

Yes, Highland View ES families have spent millions to oppose such relief of their overcrowding

Did MCPS ever consider rezoning some of Highland View to Montgomery Knolls and Pine Crest, which share a boundary line with HVES and have plenty of empty seats?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Anybody interested in actual data on this?

chrome-extension://efaidnbmnnnibpcajpcglclefindmkaj/https://montgomeryplanningboard.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/FY25-Annual-School-Test-School-Utilization-Report_6-20-24_Final.pdf

"At the elementary school level, countywide enrollment already peaked in 2017, and saw a sudden decline during and after the pandemic. While enrollment is slowly starting to pick up again, projections indicate that it will not be returning to the pre-pandemic peak level in the foreseeable future. At the end of the six-year CIP cycle, there is projected to be more than 6,600 surplus seats available across all elementary schools in the county."

"At the middle school level, the total capacity across all schools has been sufficient for the countywide enrollment over the past 15 years. Countywide projections indicate that the enrollment, which had been declining since the pandemic, will return to its pre-pandemic peak level at the end of the six-year CIP cycle, but there will be more than 2,400 surplus seats available collectively nonetheless (see Figure 3). "

"The county experienced strong enrollment growth at the high school level over the past decade, but the latest projections indicate that that growth will start tapering off in the next few years. Once the capital projects at Crown, Northwood, and Woodward high schools are complete in 2027, there is projected to be a surplus of over 2,800 seats countywide, despite the delay of the proposed projects at Damascus, Magruder, and Wootton High Schools (see Figure 1). "

That's across the system. There is and will still be plenty of overcrowding at individual schools, especially in the close-in areas they are targeting. Meanwhile:

Those same areas don't have great candidate sites for additional facilities, especially where it wouldn't strip the area of other infrastructure/public services, like parks (also over-subscribed for things like sports and often under-maintained).

Many schools in those areas deal with long-term portables.

The county doesn't properly fund the CIP request, pretty much ever, so things just get pushed out / get worse.

MCPS doesn't even bother to put a request/plan in front of the County Council that would fully address the issue / ensure adequacy -- only the most desperate situations (perhaps with a sprinkling of favored projects) end up included.

I'd be interested in actual data, but Planning has no interest in those inconvenient truths as they try to gloss over the issues in their pursuit of densifying detached SFH neighborhoods.

Those areas are choosing to be overcrowded by fighting attempts to redraw boundaries.

Yes, Highland View ES families have spent millions to oppose such relief of their overcrowding

Did MCPS ever consider rezoning some of Highland View to Montgomery Knolls and Pine Crest, which share a boundary line with HVES and have plenty of empty seats?

Ah, that's it! It's the millions more spent by Montgomery Knolls and Pinecrest families to lobby MCPS that is keeping all those portables at HVES!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Anybody interested in actual data on this?

chrome-extension://efaidnbmnnnibpcajpcglclefindmkaj/https://montgomeryplanningboard.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/FY25-Annual-School-Test-School-Utilization-Report_6-20-24_Final.pdf

"At the elementary school level, countywide enrollment already peaked in 2017, and saw a sudden decline during and after the pandemic. While enrollment is slowly starting to pick up again, projections indicate that it will not be returning to the pre-pandemic peak level in the foreseeable future. At the end of the six-year CIP cycle, there is projected to be more than 6,600 surplus seats available across all elementary schools in the county."

"At the middle school level, the total capacity across all schools has been sufficient for the countywide enrollment over the past 15 years. Countywide projections indicate that the enrollment, which had been declining since the pandemic, will return to its pre-pandemic peak level at the end of the six-year CIP cycle, but there will be more than 2,400 surplus seats available collectively nonetheless (see Figure 3). "

"The county experienced strong enrollment growth at the high school level over the past decade, but the latest projections indicate that that growth will start tapering off in the next few years. Once the capital projects at Crown, Northwood, and Woodward high schools are complete in 2027, there is projected to be a surplus of over 2,800 seats countywide, despite the delay of the proposed projects at Damascus, Magruder, and Wootton High Schools (see Figure 1). "

Surplus in those schools west of I-270? Because most all the other ones elsewhere in county are over capacity.

It may feel that way, but it's not true.

Then why do the schools have portables? Why does class size keep increasing? Why does my kid’s HS not have enough space in the cafeteria so the kids have to eat elsewhere?

Who is making the bogus projections above? Also, that surplus of 2800 seats will be filled quite quickly.

[Anonymous]

Developers aren't even honest on their impact statements and MoCo let's them get away with it. THere was a Bethesda condo with 40 units recently built, and the developer said that was going to result in 3 students to the public school population--1 for elementary, 1 for middle school and 1 for high school. These condos were not microunits for single inhabitants so this was clearly a lie and a way to avoid paying more impact fees.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Sorry any real input to change anything?

No. Our politicians want to urbanize Montgomery County so that it looks more like DC and Baltimore.

Good luck fighting that when it’s what voters want.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Developers aren't even honest on their impact statements and MoCo let's them get away with it. THere was a Bethesda condo with 40 units recently built, and the developer said that was going to result in 3 students to the public school population--1 for elementary, 1 for middle school and 1 for high school. These condos were not microunits for single inhabitants so this was clearly a lie and a way to avoid paying more impact fees.

Have seen this happen over and over.

A condo with 40 units is one thing, but that has also been the case for much higher units. They regularly lie about how many kids could possibly live in the units.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Developers aren't even honest on their impact statements and MoCo let's them get away with it. THere was a Bethesda condo with 40 units recently built, and the developer said that was going to result in 3 students to the public school population--1 for elementary, 1 for middle school and 1 for high school. These condos were not microunits for single inhabitants so this was clearly a lie and a way to avoid paying more impact fees.

Have seen this happen over and over.

A condo with 40 units is one thing, but that has also been the case for much higher units. They regularly lie about how many kids could possibly live in the units.

we should start naming and shaming the developers here. and also MoCo planning which lets this slide with their blind deaf and dumb attitude.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Sorry any real input to change anything?

No. Our politicians want to urbanize Montgomery County so that it looks more like DC and Baltimore.

Good luck fighting that when it’s what voters want.

If that's what the voters want, they should have no trouble demonstrating it with a ballot referendum.

Far more likely is the messy calculus of representative politics. Folks get elected by the majority (or just a large plurality in some cases, as effectively happens with some of our at large councilmembers, given their effective election in this blue county by rank in the primary) on their overall profile, but they don't always represent the majority interest on every issue.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Anybody interested in actual data on this?

chrome-extension://efaidnbmnnnibpcajpcglclefindmkaj/https://montgomeryplanningboard.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/FY25-Annual-School-Test-School-Utilization-Report_6-20-24_Final.pdf

"At the elementary school level, countywide enrollment already peaked in 2017, and saw a sudden decline during and after the pandemic. While enrollment is slowly starting to pick up again, projections indicate that it will not be returning to the pre-pandemic peak level in the foreseeable future. At the end of the six-year CIP cycle, there is projected to be more than 6,600 surplus seats available across all elementary schools in the county."

"At the middle school level, the total capacity across all schools has been sufficient for the countywide enrollment over the past 15 years. Countywide projections indicate that the enrollment, which had been declining since the pandemic, will return to its pre-pandemic peak level at the end of the six-year CIP cycle, but there will be more than 2,400 surplus seats available collectively nonetheless (see Figure 3). "

"The county experienced strong enrollment growth at the high school level over the past decade, but the latest projections indicate that that growth will start tapering off in the next few years. Once the capital projects at Crown, Northwood, and Woodward high schools are complete in 2027, there is projected to be a surplus of over 2,800 seats countywide, despite the delay of the proposed projects at Damascus, Magruder, and Wootton High Schools (see Figure 1). "

That's across the system. There is and will still be plenty of overcrowding at individual schools, especially in the close-in areas they are targeting. Meanwhile:

Those same areas don't have great candidate sites for additional facilities, especially where it wouldn't strip the area of other infrastructure/public services, like parks (also over-subscribed for things like sports and often under-maintained).

Many schools in those areas deal with long-term portables.

The county doesn't properly fund the CIP request, pretty much ever, so things just get pushed out / get worse.

MCPS doesn't even bother to put a request/plan in front of the County Council that would fully address the issue / ensure adequacy -- only the most desperate situations (perhaps with a sprinkling of favored projects) end up included.

I'd be interested in actual data, but Planning has no interest in those inconvenient truths as they try to gloss over the issues in their pursuit of densifying detached SFH neighborhoods.

Those areas are choosing to be overcrowded by fighting attempts to redraw boundaries.

Yes, Highland View ES families have spent millions to oppose such relief of their overcrowding

Did MCPS ever consider rezoning some of Highland View to Montgomery Knolls and Pine Crest, which share a boundary line with HVES and have plenty of empty seats?

Ah, that's it! It's the millions more spent by Montgomery Knolls and Pinecrest families to lobby MCPS that is keeping all those portables at HVES!

So if nobody's opposed to it, why haven't they made the boundary change?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Anybody interested in actual data on this?

chrome-extension://efaidnbmnnnibpcajpcglclefindmkaj/https://montgomeryplanningboard.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/FY25-Annual-School-Test-School-Utilization-Report_6-20-24_Final.pdf

"At the elementary school level, countywide enrollment already peaked in 2017, and saw a sudden decline during and after the pandemic. While enrollment is slowly starting to pick up again, projections indicate that it will not be returning to the pre-pandemic peak level in the foreseeable future. At the end of the six-year CIP cycle, there is projected to be more than 6,600 surplus seats available across all elementary schools in the county."

"At the middle school level, the total capacity across all schools has been sufficient for the countywide enrollment over the past 15 years. Countywide projections indicate that the enrollment, which had been declining since the pandemic, will return to its pre-pandemic peak level at the end of the six-year CIP cycle, but there will be more than 2,400 surplus seats available collectively nonetheless (see Figure 3). "

"The county experienced strong enrollment growth at the high school level over the past decade, but the latest projections indicate that that growth will start tapering off in the next few years. Once the capital projects at Crown, Northwood, and Woodward high schools are complete in 2027, there is projected to be a surplus of over 2,800 seats countywide, despite the delay of the proposed projects at Damascus, Magruder, and Wootton High Schools (see Figure 1). "

Surplus in those schools west of I-270? Because most all the other ones elsewhere in county are over capacity.

It may feel that way, but it's not true.

Then why do the schools have portables? Why does class size keep increasing? Why does my kid’s HS not have enough space in the cafeteria so the kids have to eat elsewhere?

Who is making the bogus projections above? Also, that surplus of 2800 seats will be filled quite quickly.

No one is saying your kid's school isn't overcrowded. About 80 schools are. But MCPS has 211 schools, and many are under capacity.