2024 Election Thread
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Anonymous
And also, Trump will never be credible. Full stop. I oppose him. But even someone who is mostly aligned with him has to acknowledge (privately if not publicly) that he lies on a scale the dwarfs any other public figure. |
Anonymous
Reporting on polls fills "news" space between the advertisements, providing a veneer of objectivity. |
Anonymous
Everyone hated spam calls, and then we did nothing about it, so no one answers the telephone anymore. |
Anonymous
Today's polling models are horribly inaccurate. The current polling models use landlines to call random numbers. But the owners of landlines are predominantly older voters who typically lean right. Younger voters who typically lean left have cell phones only, or on-line virtual phones which are not in the lists for pollsters to call. So they are leaving out huge swaths of voters, especially ones that lean left. If you look at the 2022 and 2023 off-year elections, in both years, in states where the abortion issue came up, young voters (under 30) came out in record numbers and voted in large majorities for the abortion and democratic candidates. I would guess that less than 10%, likely less than 5% of those voters have land-lines and so they are a completely invisible demographic to the current polling models. Until the polling models can find a way to adapt to the changing communications demographics, they will continue to be horribly inaccurate and lean far more right than actual voter turnout. Try comparing these polls to exit polls of actual physical voters and you'll see the discrepencies largely reflected. |
Anonymous
Are they seriously using landlines for polling? That is ridiculous. So many voters do not have a landline. |
Anonymous
Depends on the poll. Most use some cell and online polling (though I don’t know if that’s email or what or how they find people that way either), but they continue to biff the polls in the direction of the GOP. |
Anonymous
| And if they are using landlines and that is so obviously flawed, why does the media carry on about these clearly inaccurate polls? |
Anonymous
It's a cheap story to write or produce. |
Anonymous
. The fact is older people are more likely to answer them. It’s one reason they are such targets for scams. |
Anonymous
And a waste of everyone's time. |
Anonymous
Cheap and easy. One of my most memorable meetings early in my career was with a family member of a prominent US publishing company. I was shepherding some opposition leaders around from a country under a press blackout. They were sharing their stories in a fairly understated way, including how one had recently survived an attempt to poison him. At some point the family member, who was sporting expensive, extensive gold bangles - maybe Cartier, started waving her arm about how she had not heard of these stories, so they must not be true. A lot of clinging sound with the bangles hitting each other. Another American in the room, formerly high up in diplomatic circles, turned to her and said, "that's because your reporter doesn't want to lose his visa, is also lazy, and reports from the bar." |
Anonymous
I agree. I get a lot of texts asking to poll me but I just report as junk. I can't imagine anyone but old people is willing to pick up the phone or answer rando texts. |
Anonymous
all politicians lie their butt off, including both Trump and Biden, but Biden's brain is such mush he can't remember simple things when he served as VP or when his son died. no matter what side you are on, you have to admit Biden is getting less fit to serve by the day. |
Anonymous
Well trump is going to lose. Badly. |
Anonymous
Trump was hard pressed to remember his youngest son in an interview 5 years ago but sure Biden’s the one whose brain is turning to mush. https://www.vanityfair.com/hollywood/2019/09/trump-vaping-ban-forget-barron-son-colbert-kimmel-trevor-noah |