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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]No matter how many votes Trump gets in November,[b] he'll claim he won.[/b] And, because of this, some number of Trump supporters will take up arms against the United States again.

He's a threat to democracy, and the number of Republicans who simply don't care about the threat he poses is beyond disturbing. [/quote]

You seem to be under the impression he’s going to lose… have you looked a national and swing state polls recently?

Or betting odds?

Trump is the favorite to win, currently.[/quote]

Who needs polls?  Look at all the recent special elections for better indications of what really happens on elections day.[/quote]

[img]https://i.postimg.cc/PrzmqNjX/3-F1-B1-AF4-A2-B0-4-EC1-ABB3-E60-BFF304-B3-F.png[/img]

Yeah, sure. Don’t be all *[i]surprised pikachu face[/i] when November comes around, though.[/quote]

Today's polling models are horribly inaccurate.  The current polling models use landlines to call random numbers.  But the owners of landlines are predominantly older voters who typically lean right.  Younger voters who typically lean left have cell phones only, or on-line virtual phones which are not in the lists for pollsters to call.  So they are leaving out huge swaths of voters, especially ones that lean left.  If you look at the 2022 and 2023 off-year elections, in both years, in states where the abortion issue came up, young voters (under 30) came out in record numbers and voted in large majorities for the abortion and democratic candidates.  I would guess that less than 10%, likely less than 5% of those voters have land-lines and so they are a completely invisible demographic to the current polling models.

Until the polling models can find a way to adapt to the changing communications demographics, they will continue to be horribly inaccurate and lean far more right than actual voter turnout.  Try comparing these polls to exit polls of actual physical voters and you'll see the discrepencies largely reflected.[/quote]

I agree. I get a lot of texts asking to poll me but I just report as junk. I can't imagine anyone but old people is willing to pick up the phone or answer rando texts.[/quote]

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