2024 Election Thread

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Will there be any non-MAGAs running for office this year?

Yes. Democrats. Elect them.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Really good analysis of what's going on here. I would rather be a Dem than an R.

+1 We already had the 2022 Midterms and usually the party of the president loses big in the federal elections held immediately following the presidential election. That didn’t happen in 2022. Democrats lost control of the House but just barely and R’s underperformed across the board. I would 100% rather be us than them right now! Yes I know things are different when it comes to Trump vs. any other Republican, but he already lost to Biden once.

Democrats will certainly take back the House in 24. But it's a bad map for Democrats in the Senate this election cycle. I don't see how they retain it. It's a really bad map. They'll get it back in 26, but in the meantime....

Polling is not looking good for Biden. He's an elderly geriatric who really shouldn't be in the Oval Office making life and death decisions.

Trump is Trump. Roughly a third of the country subscribes to that insanity. And a third will be enough when Democrats put up a weak candidate and third parties perform strongly.

So, likely result is Trump prez, Republicans take the Senate, and Democrats take back the House.

Plausible, but Trump lost 2020 by over 6 million votes. 2016 was an Electoral College fluke. I'm not convinced Trump can make up the difference. And third-party candidates have traditionally drawn from the Republican candidate. I see much more significant hurdles for Trump. On the flip side, i think the GOP House could attempt some shenanigans. I think violence is quite likely.

[Anonymous]

It's a trend... In last night's special election for a house seat in deep red Oklahoma the Dem came darn close...

A Republican winning an Oklahoma special election on Tuesday night in a deep red area by just five points has sparked concerns about the GOP's performance in November's races.

"Keep telling me Trump is going to win, while we keep losing every other election. Sure, it's possible with an unpopular Biden on the ticket, but the fundamentals aren't there." -- former chair of the Western New Castle Region Republican Committee

https://www.newsweek.com/oklahoma-special-election-district39-republican-trump-1869840

Women tried to warn you.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:It's a trend... In last night's special election for a house seat in deep red Oklahoma the Dem came darn close...

A Republican winning an Oklahoma special election on Tuesday night in a deep red area by just five points has sparked concerns about the GOP's performance in November's races.

"Keep telling me Trump is going to win, while we keep losing every other election. Sure, it's possible with an unpopular Biden on the ticket, but the fundamentals aren't there." -- former chair of the Western New Castle Region Republican Committee

https://www.newsweek.com/oklahoma-special-election-district39-republican-trump-1869840

Women tried to warn you.

Not really a fan of Newsweek these days (months, years), but that is a damning article and would behoove some of the DC press corps to read it.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:No matter how many votes Trump gets in November, he'll claim he won. And, because of this, some number of Trump supporters will take up arms against the United States again.

He's a threat to democracy, and the number of Republicans who simply don't care about the threat he poses is beyond disturbing.

You seem to be under the impression he’s going to lose… have you looked a national and swing state polls recently?

Or betting odds?

Trump is the favorite to win, currently.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:No matter how many votes Trump gets in November, he'll claim he won. And, because of this, some number of Trump supporters will take up arms against the United States again.

He's a threat to democracy, and the number of Republicans who simply don't care about the threat he poses is beyond disturbing.

You seem to be under the impression he’s going to lose… have you looked a national and swing state polls recently?

Or betting odds?

Trump is the favorite to win, currently.

Who needs polls? Look at all the recent special elections for better indications of what really happens on elections day.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:No matter how many votes Trump gets in November, he'll claim he won. And, because of this, some number of Trump supporters will take up arms against the United States again.

He's a threat to democracy, and the number of Republicans who simply don't care about the threat he poses is beyond disturbing.

You seem to be under the impression he’s going to lose… have you looked a national and swing state polls recently?

Or betting odds?

Trump is the favorite to win, currently.

Who needs polls? Look at all the recent special elections for better indications of what really happens on elections day.

Yeah, sure. Don’t be all *surprised pikachu face when November comes around, though.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:No matter how many votes Trump gets in November, he'll claim he won. And, because of this, some number of Trump supporters will take up arms against the United States again.

He's a threat to democracy, and the number of Republicans who simply don't care about the threat he poses is beyond disturbing.

You seem to be under the impression he’s going to lose… have you looked a national and swing state polls recently?

Or betting odds?

Trump is the favorite to win, currently.

Who needs polls? Look at all the recent special elections for better indications of what really happens on elections day.

Yeah, sure. Don’t be all *surprised pikachu face when November comes around, though.

I won't be. The poll for the special election on Tuesday in NY was not correct. Showed candidates basically tied within the margin of error but the Dem crushed it by 8 points.

[Anonymous]

I don't know who these polls are polling but it does not seem to be actual voters.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I don't know who these polls are polling but it does not seem to be actual voters.

I like the idea of polling; I enjoy seeing when my candidate looks good in the polls, too. But the polls in 2020 were crazy off too. It’s like polling has run its course and they can’t figure out the way forward.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I don't know who these polls are polling but it does not seem to be actual voters.

I like the idea of polling; I enjoy seeing when my candidate looks good in the polls, too. But the polls in 2020 were crazy off too. It’s like polling has run its course and they can’t figure out the way forward.

What use is looking good in a poll if it is bull crap on election day. Just a waste of time and money.

[Anonymous]

What strikes me too is the comment sections across all platforms. They have really changed since 2016, when the comments were all MAGAs. No more. Much more mix of comments and many people despise Trump.

I also think abortion has changed the polling equation. More young people are voting, and more women are voting.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Really good analysis of what's going on here. I would rather be a Dem than an R.

+1 We already had the 2022 Midterms and usually the party of the president loses big in the federal elections held immediately following the presidential election. That didn’t happen in 2022. Democrats lost control of the House but just barely and R’s underperformed across the board. I would 100% rather be us than them right now! Yes I know things are different when it comes to Trump vs. any other Republican, but he already lost to Biden once.

Democrats will certainly take back the House in 24. But it's a bad map for Democrats in the Senate this election cycle. I don't see how they retain it. It's a really bad map. They'll get it back in 26, but in the meantime....

Polling is not looking good for Biden. He's an elderly geriatric who really shouldn't be in the Oval Office making life and death decisions.

Trump is Trump. Roughly a third of the country subscribes to that insanity. And a third will be enough when Democrats put up a weak candidate and third parties perform strongly.

So, likely result is Trump prez, Republicans take the Senate, and Democrats take back the House.

Plausible, but Trump lost 2020 by over 6 million votes. 2016 was an Electoral College fluke. I'm not convinced Trump can make up the difference. And third-party candidates have traditionally drawn from the Republican candidate. I see much more significant hurdles for Trump. On the flip side, i think the GOP House could attempt some shenanigans. I think violence is quite likely.

By the time Jan 2025 rolls around, the House will likely be back in Dems hands. And Kamala will still be VP, and we know what powers the GOP beleives she will have, right?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I don't know who these polls are polling but it does not seem to be actual voters.

I like the idea of polling; I enjoy seeing when my candidate looks good in the polls, too. But the polls in 2020 were crazy off too. It’s like polling has run its course and they can’t figure out the way forward.

They have a few problems, not the least of which is people generally do not pick up calls from unknown numbers or respond to "opinion" spam texts.

[Anonymous]

We can go to the moon and we can't even figure out to perform an accurate poll.