Excellent podcast from Politico from youngkin strategists on how they won — must read/listen

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Youngkin’s win was due to good old fashioned Southern Strategy. They can try to dress it up all that want, but it doesn’t change reality.

I have no doubt this makes you feel better about the terrible campaign McAuliffe waged, but it is both delusional and self-defeating. Wise up.

+100
Excuse after ridiculous excuse... when are Dems going to simply admit no one wanted what they were selling? People are on to them.

Given that nearly half of Virginia voters cast a ballot for McAuliffe, I’d say a lot of people preferred McAuliffe to Youngkin. You’re acting like the election was a blow-out when in reality Youngkin won by less than 2 points.

Democrats blew an easy win with a well known candidate in a state that was sharply trending blue a year ago. But it's okay. I don't expect most Democrats to understand how much they are alienating the middle until after they lose in 2024, hopefully not to Trump.

From day one, no one thought McAuliffe would be an easy win this year. You are rewriting history.

You can get an idea of what people thought from predictit's 90 day chart
https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7001/Which-party-will-win-the-2021-Virginia-gubernatorial-election

McAuliffe was the heavy favorite (and leading in the polls) until the last week or two.

But at this point, I am not surprised at progressives trying to rewrite history so that they don't have to change course.

Thinking someone is more likely to win isn’t the same thing as saying it would be an easy win. If you thinking the most likely scenario is candidate A winning by 1.2 points, then you can, at the same time, believe A will win but that it will be a close race and therefore not “easy.”

This is why the implications of polling and statistical analysis is lost on so many laypeople. Odds of winning and magnitude of lead are not the same thing.

This is just a condescending way to say your personal fact-free opinion trumps actual evidence.

Can we please agree that that verb - Trumps - should be stricken from our vocabulary until after 2024?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Come on now, you aren't seeing alllllllll of the sexism inherent in deriding women who were 1) disproportionately hurt in terms of employment and well-being by school closures, 2) pushing for faster school reopening because they felt their children were being hurt by the closures?

So you voted for the candidate and party who is for defunding public schools (go charters, let’s ramp up that graft like you have in DC), and opposed universal day care and parental leave? What a shell game.

f

DP. I am ABSOLUTELY a huge charter/school choice supporter now -- huge change from my beliefs pre-pandemic. I vote in DC so this isn't about Youngkin, but you best believe that I will be supporting only candidates that believe in school choice in DC.

+1 I give up on public schools. They don't care about kids, they don't care about equity, they don't listen to parents, and nothing will change until parents have a choice.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Youngkin’s win was due to good old fashioned Southern Strategy. They can try to dress it up all that want, but it doesn’t change reality.

I have no doubt this makes you feel better about the terrible campaign McAuliffe waged, but it is both delusional and self-defeating. Wise up.

+100
Excuse after ridiculous excuse... when are Dems going to simply admit no one wanted what they were selling? People are on to them.

Given that nearly half of Virginia voters cast a ballot for McAuliffe, I’d say a lot of people preferred McAuliffe to Youngkin. You’re acting like the election was a blow-out when in reality Youngkin won by less than 2 points.

Democrats blew an easy win with a well known candidate in a state that was sharply trending blue a year ago. But it's okay. I don't expect most Democrats to understand how much they are alienating the middle until after they lose in 2024, hopefully not to Trump.

From day one, no one thought McAuliffe would be an easy win this year. You are rewriting history.

You can get an idea of what people thought from predictit's 90 day chart
https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7001/Which-party-will-win-the-2021-Virginia-gubernatorial-election

McAuliffe was the heavy favorite (and leading in the polls) until the last week or two.

But at this point, I am not surprised at progressives trying to rewrite history so that they don't have to change course.

Thinking someone is more likely to win isn’t the same thing as saying it would be an easy win. If you thinking the most likely scenario is candidate A winning by 1.2 points, then you can, at the same time, believe A will win but that it will be a close race and therefore not “easy.”

This is why the implications of polling and statistical analysis is lost on so many laypeople. Odds of winning and magnitude of lead are not the same thing.

This is just a condescending way to say your personal fact-free opinion trumps actual evidence.

Or…that PP understands how to interpret polling data and statistics?

Yet another data point on why we should add more data analysis & statistics to our math programs.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Come on now, you aren't seeing alllllllll of the sexism inherent in deriding women who were 1) disproportionately hurt in terms of employment and well-being by school closures, 2) pushing for faster school reopening because they felt their children were being hurt by the closures?

So you voted for the candidate and party who is for defunding public schools (go charters, let’s ramp up that graft like you have in DC), and opposed universal day care and parental leave? What a shell game.

f

DP. I am ABSOLUTELY a huge charter/school choice supporter now -- huge change from my beliefs pre-pandemic. I vote in DC so this isn't about Youngkin, but you best believe that I will be supporting only candidates that believe in school choice in DC.

+1 I give up on public schools. They don't care about kids, they don't care about equity, they don't listen to parents, and nothing will change until parents have a choice.

Please update us when you get into charter schools. Minimum standards are laughable, no real oversight, no public records access, and they will "counsel out" your kid if you try to make any waves. They can dump your family, if they personally don't like you.

As a parent, you have a lot more rights with a regular public school.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Youngkin’s win was due to good old fashioned Southern Strategy. They can try to dress it up all that want, but it doesn’t change reality.

I have no doubt this makes you feel better about the terrible campaign McAuliffe waged, but it is both delusional and self-defeating. Wise up.

+100
Excuse after ridiculous excuse... when are Dems going to simply admit no one wanted what they were selling? People are on to them.

Given that nearly half of Virginia voters cast a ballot for McAuliffe, I’d say a lot of people preferred McAuliffe to Youngkin. You’re acting like the election was a blow-out when in reality Youngkin won by less than 2 points.

Democrats blew an easy win with a well known candidate in a state that was sharply trending blue a year ago. But it's okay. I don't expect most Democrats to understand how much they are alienating the middle until after they lose in 2024, hopefully not to Trump.

From day one, no one thought McAuliffe would be an easy win this year. You are rewriting history.

You can get an idea of what people thought from predictit's 90 day chart
https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7001/Which-party-will-win-the-2021-Virginia-gubernatorial-election

McAuliffe was the heavy favorite (and leading in the polls) until the last week or two.

But at this point, I am not surprised at progressives trying to rewrite history so that they don't have to change course.

Thinking someone is more likely to win isn’t the same thing as saying it would be an easy win. If you thinking the most likely scenario is candidate A winning by 1.2 points, then you can, at the same time, believe A will win but that it will be a close race and therefore not “easy.”

This is why the implications of polling and statistical analysis is lost on so many laypeople. Odds of winning and magnitude of lead are not the same thing.

This is just a condescending way to say your personal fact-free opinion trumps actual evidence.

DP. Did you mean to respond to a different post? Your comment makes no sense given that pp was talking about interpretation of data, polling, statistics, etc.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Youngkin’s win was due to good old fashioned Southern Strategy. They can try to dress it up all that want, but it doesn’t change reality.

I have no doubt this makes you feel better about the terrible campaign McAuliffe waged, but it is both delusional and self-defeating. Wise up.

+100
Excuse after ridiculous excuse... when are Dems going to simply admit no one wanted what they were selling? People are on to them.

Given that nearly half of Virginia voters cast a ballot for McAuliffe, I’d say a lot of people preferred McAuliffe to Youngkin. You’re acting like the election was a blow-out when in reality Youngkin won by less than 2 points.

Democrats blew an easy win with a well known candidate in a state that was sharply trending blue a year ago. But it's okay. I don't expect most Democrats to understand how much they are alienating the middle until after they lose in 2024, hopefully not to Trump.

From day one, no one thought McAuliffe would be an easy win this year. You are rewriting history.

You can get an idea of what people thought from predictit's 90 day chart
https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7001/Which-party-will-win-the-2021-Virginia-gubernatorial-election

McAuliffe was the heavy favorite (and leading in the polls) until the last week or two.

But at this point, I am not surprised at progressives trying to rewrite history so that they don't have to change course.

Thinking someone is more likely to win isn’t the same thing as saying it would be an easy win. If you thinking the most likely scenario is candidate A winning by 1.2 points, then you can, at the same time, believe A will win but that it will be a close race and therefore not “easy.”

This is why the implications of polling and statistical analysis is lost on so many laypeople. Odds of winning and magnitude of lead are not the same thing.

Not to mention that most of the polling in the last 6-8 weeks before the election put the candidates at effectively tied since the point spreads were generally within the margin of error.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I am so sick of the whining over "they closed the schools!!!" The schools were re-opened long before election day. The worst that could be said was that the Democrats were too cautious in responding to a 100-year pandemic that was killing thousands of people. And because of that you stick us with Youngkin?

You're a bunch of Karens.

I mean, you can keep repeating that way all the way to continued defeat at the ballot box. There were serious harms done by school closures - harms that are still being felt today. A lot of people aren't soon going to forget that. And yeah, now the Democratic claims to be on the side of kids and equity rings EXTREMELY false to me now ... and I'm a true believer. Imagine how it sounds to swing voters, or to less motivated voters for GOTV.

I was also on DCUM predicting that the AG letter on school boards was going to contribute to a Youngkin win, to the great derision of our host. I was right about that too.

Schools and masks have enervated some previously active Ds (like me) and will swing some other Biden voters to Trump and his proxies.

You've just outed yourself. You're one of "them."

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Come on now, you aren't seeing alllllllll of the sexism inherent in deriding women who were 1) disproportionately hurt in terms of employment and well-being by school closures, 2) pushing for faster school reopening because they felt their children were being hurt by the closures?

So you voted for the candidate and party who is for defunding public schools (go charters, let’s ramp up that graft like you have in DC), and opposed universal day care and parental leave? What a shell game.

f

DP. I am ABSOLUTELY a huge charter/school choice supporter now -- huge change from my beliefs pre-pandemic. I vote in DC so this isn't about Youngkin, but you best believe that I will be supporting only candidates that believe in school choice in DC.

Just stop.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Come on now, you aren't seeing alllllllll of the sexism inherent in deriding women who were 1) disproportionately hurt in terms of employment and well-being by school closures, 2) pushing for faster school reopening because they felt their children were being hurt by the closures?

So you voted for the candidate and party who is for defunding public schools (go charters, let’s ramp up that graft like you have in DC), and opposed universal day care and parental leave? What a shell game.

f

DP. I am ABSOLUTELY a huge charter/school choice supporter now -- huge change from my beliefs pre-pandemic. I vote in DC so this isn't about Youngkin, but you best believe that I will be supporting only candidates that believe in school choice in DC.

+1 I give up on public schools. They don't care about kids, they don't care about equity, they don't listen to parents, and nothing will change until parents have a choice.

Please update us when you get into charter schools. Minimum standards are laughable, no real oversight, no public records access, and they will "counsel out" your kid if you try to make any waves. They can dump your family, if they personally don't like you.

As a parent, you have a lot more rights with a regular public school.

Miss me with that. My kid has SN and I am tight with a lot of SN parents. Their experience in charters is SO MUCH BETTER than DCPS.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I am so sick of the whining over "they closed the schools!!!" The schools were re-opened long before election day. The worst that could be said was that the Democrats were too cautious in responding to a 100-year pandemic that was killing thousands of people. And because of that you stick us with Youngkin?

You're a bunch of Karens.

I mean, you can keep repeating that way all the way to continued defeat at the ballot box. There were serious harms done by school closures - harms that are still being felt today. A lot of people aren't soon going to forget that. And yeah, now the Democratic claims to be on the side of kids and equity rings EXTREMELY false to me now ... and I'm a true believer. Imagine how it sounds to swing voters, or to less motivated voters for GOTV.

I was also on DCUM predicting that the AG letter on school boards was going to contribute to a Youngkin win, to the great derision of our host. I was right about that too.

Schools and masks have enervated some previously active Ds (like me) and will swing some other Biden voters to Trump and his proxies.

You've just outed yourself. You're one of "them."

and you're one of "them" who is going to hand over the nation to Republicans because you're so incredibly unaware and tribal.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Come on now, you aren't seeing alllllllll of the sexism inherent in deriding women who were 1) disproportionately hurt in terms of employment and well-being by school closures, 2) pushing for faster school reopening because they felt their children were being hurt by the closures?

So you voted for the candidate and party who is for defunding public schools (go charters, let’s ramp up that graft like you have in DC), and opposed universal day care and parental leave? What a shell game.

f

DP. I am ABSOLUTELY a huge charter/school choice supporter now -- huge change from my beliefs pre-pandemic. I vote in DC so this isn't about Youngkin, but you best believe that I will be supporting only candidates that believe in school choice in DC.

Just stop.

Stop ... what? Man you are going to be continually surprised by what happens in the next 5 years if you don't accept reality.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Come on now, you aren't seeing alllllllll of the sexism inherent in deriding women who were 1) disproportionately hurt in terms of employment and well-being by school closures, 2) pushing for faster school reopening because they felt their children were being hurt by the closures?

So you voted for the candidate and party who is for defunding public schools (go charters, let’s ramp up that graft like you have in DC), and opposed universal day care and parental leave? What a shell game.

f

DP. I am ABSOLUTELY a huge charter/school choice supporter now -- huge change from my beliefs pre-pandemic. I vote in DC so this isn't about Youngkin, but you best believe that I will be supporting only candidates that believe in school choice in DC.

Just stop.

Stop ... what? Man you are going to be continually surprised by what happens in the next 5 years if you don't accept reality.

DC has plenty of charter schools so you can stop obsessing over the issue.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Come on now, you aren't seeing alllllllll of the sexism inherent in deriding women who were 1) disproportionately hurt in terms of employment and well-being by school closures, 2) pushing for faster school reopening because they felt their children were being hurt by the closures?

So you voted for the candidate and party who is for defunding public schools (go charters, let’s ramp up that graft like you have in DC), and opposed universal day care and parental leave? What a shell game.

f

DP. I am ABSOLUTELY a huge charter/school choice supporter now -- huge change from my beliefs pre-pandemic. I vote in DC so this isn't about Youngkin, but you best believe that I will be supporting only candidates that believe in school choice in DC.

Just stop.

Stop ... what? Man you are going to be continually surprised by what happens in the next 5 years if you don't accept reality.

DC has plenty of charter schools so you can stop obsessing over the issue.

well prepare for more charters in Virginia.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Come on now, you aren't seeing alllllllll of the sexism inherent in deriding women who were 1) disproportionately hurt in terms of employment and well-being by school closures, 2) pushing for faster school reopening because they felt their children were being hurt by the closures?

So you voted for the candidate and party who is for defunding public schools (go charters, let’s ramp up that graft like you have in DC), and opposed universal day care and parental leave? What a shell game.

f

DP. I am ABSOLUTELY a huge charter/school choice supporter now -- huge change from my beliefs pre-pandemic. I vote in DC so this isn't about Youngkin, but you best believe that I will be supporting only candidates that believe in school choice in DC.

Just stop.

Stop ... what? Man you are going to be continually surprised by what happens in the next 5 years if you don't accept reality.

DC has plenty of charter schools so you can stop obsessing over the issue.

And currently has a Council that seems to want to undermine charters. So, if you are pro-charter, this might influence who you vote for for, say, mayor.

[Anonymous]

It was the fleece vest.

Nothing more to say or hyper analyze. Done.