FCPS comprehensive boundary review

[Anonymous]

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Anonymous wrote:Chantilly: 22% Farms

Centreville: 36% Farms

Westfield: 36% Farms

Herndon: 55% farms

Fairfax HS: 40% Farms

Oakton is only 16%. Langley is only 4%. Ridiculous.

South Lakes: 35% Farms

How is it ridiculous? Should schools all have equal Farms rates? Certain towns/areas have low housing costs. Certain towns/areas have much higher housing costs. The houses near Langley all cost a fortune. The only way to increase the Farms rate would be to bus in kids from other parts of county with the sole purpose of adding poverty to the school. I checked out Zillow. There is one 3 bedroom condo for sale in McLean for $705,000 (nothing lower than this, I also don’t think FARMS families can afford $705k for a house). that is on the border of Langley/McLean High School. There aren’t even any low cost houses in McLean that you could redistrict to Langley to increase the FARMS rate.

This is a lie, and if you'd kept up with the thread you'd know it.

If they want they could absolutely adjust the Langley boundaries to add more diversity and still end up with kids having shorter commutes than the kids in expensive, single-family homes at Forestville getting bussed to Langley. It would mean moving parts of Tysons and Reston to Langley and parts of Great Falls to other pyramids.

Whether they should do that is a different question from whether they could do so.

Moving kids from Reston to Langley would
Make their commute just as long as most
Of the forestville kids. And would be significantly farther than their commute to south lakes. You’d just be trading who is doing the commute to balance farms rates.

Disagree. They would live closer to Langley than most of the Forestville kids.

Whether that juice is worth the squeeze is a fair question, but it's a move they could justify on a basis other than simply "balancing FARMS rates."

Exactly what area are you looking at? Aldrin is 12 miles from Langley, Forest edge 12 miles, lake Anne 13 miles, Armstrong 15 miles…

You don’t have to go that far to find lower income students closer to Langley. Tysons is much closer and The Exchange is very close to the current Langley border. I think that the outer edge of Langley/Herndon border will escape this round, but in 5 years, when the exchange is up and running - there will be more pressure to move it.

The only way they’ll significantly impact farms at langley is if they move low income housing into the school. Otherwise, people with means can just rent those units for the address and call it a day.

The Exchange is low income housing.

I know. Would have to be much more to move the needle.

It will have over 500 apartments. That will move the needle a bit.

Ok, like 60 kids in total, about five per grade. Technically it would move the needle a bit, but they’d have to do much more and zone it to Langley to really alter the school.

And long term, all we’re talking about is diminishing a high performing school in a way that’ll send more kids to private.

How do you get 60 kids in total?

DP. It's two buildings with 516 planned units currently zoned to Marshall. Using the historical yield formula, that would be about 14-15 more HS kids. It would be closer to 60 for the entire pyramid (ES, MS, and HS). The yield could always turn out to be higher.

There will be 98 three bedroom apartments and over 200 two bedroom apartments. Those will yield more than 60 students.

Cool. Now do TRG, HTOC, 555 Herndon Parkway, and Fairbrook. Or do we only want to count housing developments when it suits an agenda?

DP, but they've broken ground at the Exchange at Spring Hill and at Somos (two all-affordable housing complexes currently zoned to Marshall). You're referring to a bunch of plans that, in some cases, may never come to fruition or may not come to fruition for years.

It really won't tank Langley if the Exchange, which is near areas on the other side of the Toll Road already zoned to Langley, were reassigned there.

555 Exchange has broken ground too. About 500 residential units.

Any guess as to whether FCPS has included it in the CIP? I think we all know the answer.

Not as of mid-December 2024, it hadn't.

https://www.ffxnow.com/2024/12/19/design-approved-for-first-mixed-use-redevelopment-near-herndon-metro-station/

They haven’t voted on the final CIP. You’re telling me that within a month we went from a zero percent chance of 555 being built to a 100%?

Stop making excuses for their flawed CIP process. They should be accurate with their projections, not rigid with semantics that leads to hundreds of millions of dollars in costly mistakes.

I'm not saying anything about their CIP process. I'm saying construction has definitely begun on some AH projects in Tysons, and that hasn't yet happened with respect to many of the potential developments in Herndon.

If you have proof that the developer has broken ground on 555 Herndon Parkway, feel free to share.

Such a weird head-in-the-sand statement. Want me to drive by and capture forensic images? It’s broken ground.

Sure, knock yourself out. If the developer broke ground, it apparently happened very recently.

The same cannot be said for many of the projects mentioned in the earlier post, which remain in the planning stages and may or may not ever occur.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

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Anonymous wrote:

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Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

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Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

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Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Chantilly: 22% Farms

Centreville: 36% Farms

Westfield: 36% Farms

Herndon: 55% farms

Fairfax HS: 40% Farms

Oakton is only 16%. Langley is only 4%. Ridiculous.

South Lakes: 35% Farms

How is it ridiculous? Should schools all have equal Farms rates? Certain towns/areas have low housing costs. Certain towns/areas have much higher housing costs. The houses near Langley all cost a fortune. The only way to increase the Farms rate would be to bus in kids from other parts of county with the sole purpose of adding poverty to the school. I checked out Zillow. There is one 3 bedroom condo for sale in McLean for $705,000 (nothing lower than this, I also don’t think FARMS families can afford $705k for a house). that is on the border of Langley/McLean High School. There aren’t even any low cost houses in McLean that you could redistrict to Langley to increase the FARMS rate.

This is a lie, and if you'd kept up with the thread you'd know it.

If they want they could absolutely adjust the Langley boundaries to add more diversity and still end up with kids having shorter commutes than the kids in expensive, single-family homes at Forestville getting bussed to Langley. It would mean moving parts of Tysons and Reston to Langley and parts of Great Falls to other pyramids.

Whether they should do that is a different question from whether they could do so.

Moving kids from Reston to Langley would
Make their commute just as long as most
Of the forestville kids. And would be significantly farther than their commute to south lakes. You’d just be trading who is doing the commute to balance farms rates.

Disagree. They would live closer to Langley than most of the Forestville kids.

Whether that juice is worth the squeeze is a fair question, but it's a move they could justify on a basis other than simply "balancing FARMS rates."

Exactly what area are you looking at? Aldrin is 12 miles from Langley, Forest edge 12 miles, lake Anne 13 miles, Armstrong 15 miles…

You don’t have to go that far to find lower income students closer to Langley. Tysons is much closer and The Exchange is very close to the current Langley border. I think that the outer edge of Langley/Herndon border will escape this round, but in 5 years, when the exchange is up and running - there will be more pressure to move it.

The only way they’ll significantly impact farms at langley is if they move low income housing into the school. Otherwise, people with means can just rent those units for the address and call it a day.

The Exchange is low income housing.

I know. Would have to be much more to move the needle.

It will have over 500 apartments. That will move the needle a bit.

Ok, like 60 kids in total, about five per grade. Technically it would move the needle a bit, but they’d have to do much more and zone it to Langley to really alter the school.

And long term, all we’re talking about is diminishing a high performing school in a way that’ll send more kids to private.

How do you get 60 kids in total?

DP. It's two buildings with 516 planned units currently zoned to Marshall. Using the historical yield formula, that would be about 14-15 more HS kids. It would be closer to 60 for the entire pyramid (ES, MS, and HS). The yield could always turn out to be higher.

There will be 98 three bedroom apartments and over 200 two bedroom apartments. Those will yield more than 60 students.

Cool. Now do TRG, HTOC, 555 Herndon Parkway, and Fairbrook. Or do we only want to count housing developments when it suits an agenda?

DP, but they've broken ground at the Exchange at Spring Hill and at Somos (two all-affordable housing complexes currently zoned to Marshall). You're referring to a bunch of plans that, in some cases, may never come to fruition or may not come to fruition for years.

It really won't tank Langley if the Exchange, which is near areas on the other side of the Toll Road already zoned to Langley, were reassigned there.

555 Exchange has broken ground too. About 500 residential units.

Any guess as to whether FCPS has included it in the CIP? I think we all know the answer.

Not as of mid-December 2024, it hadn't.

https://www.ffxnow.com/2024/12/19/design-approved-for-first-mixed-use-redevelopment-near-herndon-metro-station/

They haven’t voted on the final CIP. You’re telling me that within a month we went from a zero percent chance of 555 being built to a 100%?

Stop making excuses for their flawed CIP process. They should be accurate with their projections, not rigid with semantics that leads to hundreds of millions of dollars in costly mistakes.

I'm not saying anything about their CIP process. I'm saying construction has definitely begun on some AH projects in Tysons, and that hasn't yet happened with respect to many of the potential developments in Herndon.

If you have proof that the developer has broken ground on 555 Herndon Parkway, feel free to share.

Such a weird head-in-the-sand statement. Want me to drive by and capture forensic images? It’s broken ground.

Sure, knock yourself out. If the developer broke ground, it apparently happened very recently.

The same cannot be said for many of the projects mentioned in the earlier post, which remain in the planning stages and may or may not ever occur.

For the life of me I can’t figure out why anyone would not want accurate projections in the CIP.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

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Anonymous wrote:

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Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Chantilly: 22% Farms

Centreville: 36% Farms

Westfield: 36% Farms

Herndon: 55% farms

Fairfax HS: 40% Farms

Oakton is only 16%. Langley is only 4%. Ridiculous.

South Lakes: 35% Farms

How is it ridiculous? Should schools all have equal Farms rates? Certain towns/areas have low housing costs. Certain towns/areas have much higher housing costs. The houses near Langley all cost a fortune. The only way to increase the Farms rate would be to bus in kids from other parts of county with the sole purpose of adding poverty to the school. I checked out Zillow. There is one 3 bedroom condo for sale in McLean for $705,000 (nothing lower than this, I also don’t think FARMS families can afford $705k for a house). that is on the border of Langley/McLean High School. There aren’t even any low cost houses in McLean that you could redistrict to Langley to increase the FARMS rate.

This is a lie, and if you'd kept up with the thread you'd know it.

If they want they could absolutely adjust the Langley boundaries to add more diversity and still end up with kids having shorter commutes than the kids in expensive, single-family homes at Forestville getting bussed to Langley. It would mean moving parts of Tysons and Reston to Langley and parts of Great Falls to other pyramids.

Whether they should do that is a different question from whether they could do so.

Moving kids from Reston to Langley would
Make their commute just as long as most
Of the forestville kids. And would be significantly farther than their commute to south lakes. You’d just be trading who is doing the commute to balance farms rates.

Disagree. They would live closer to Langley than most of the Forestville kids.

Whether that juice is worth the squeeze is a fair question, but it's a move they could justify on a basis other than simply "balancing FARMS rates."

Exactly what area are you looking at? Aldrin is 12 miles from Langley, Forest edge 12 miles, lake Anne 13 miles, Armstrong 15 miles…

You don’t have to go that far to find lower income students closer to Langley. Tysons is much closer and The Exchange is very close to the current Langley border. I think that the outer edge of Langley/Herndon border will escape this round, but in 5 years, when the exchange is up and running - there will be more pressure to move it.

The only way they’ll significantly impact farms at langley is if they move low income housing into the school. Otherwise, people with means can just rent those units for the address and call it a day.

The Exchange is low income housing.

I know. Would have to be much more to move the needle.

It will have over 500 apartments. That will move the needle a bit.

Ok, like 60 kids in total, about five per grade. Technically it would move the needle a bit, but they’d have to do much more and zone it to Langley to really alter the school.

And long term, all we’re talking about is diminishing a high performing school in a way that’ll send more kids to private.

How do you get 60 kids in total?

DP. It's two buildings with 516 planned units currently zoned to Marshall. Using the historical yield formula, that would be about 14-15 more HS kids. It would be closer to 60 for the entire pyramid (ES, MS, and HS). The yield could always turn out to be higher.

There will be 98 three bedroom apartments and over 200 two bedroom apartments. Those will yield more than 60 students.

Cool. Now do TRG, HTOC, 555 Herndon Parkway, and Fairbrook. Or do we only want to count housing developments when it suits an agenda?

DP, but they've broken ground at the Exchange at Spring Hill and at Somos (two all-affordable housing complexes currently zoned to Marshall). You're referring to a bunch of plans that, in some cases, may never come to fruition or may not come to fruition for years.

It really won't tank Langley if the Exchange, which is near areas on the other side of the Toll Road already zoned to Langley, were reassigned there.

555 Exchange has broken ground too. About 500 residential units.

Any guess as to whether FCPS has included it in the CIP? I think we all know the answer.

Not as of mid-December 2024, it hadn't.

https://www.ffxnow.com/2024/12/19/design-approved-for-first-mixed-use-redevelopment-near-herndon-metro-station/

They haven’t voted on the final CIP. You’re telling me that within a month we went from a zero percent chance of 555 being built to a 100%?

Stop making excuses for their flawed CIP process. They should be accurate with their projections, not rigid with semantics that leads to hundreds of millions of dollars in costly mistakes.

I'm not saying anything about their CIP process. I'm saying construction has definitely begun on some AH projects in Tysons, and that hasn't yet happened with respect to many of the potential developments in Herndon.

If you have proof that the developer has broken ground on 555 Herndon Parkway, feel free to share.

Such a weird head-in-the-sand statement. Want me to drive by and capture forensic images? It’s broken ground.

Sure, knock yourself out. If the developer broke ground, it apparently happened very recently.

The same cannot be said for many of the projects mentioned in the earlier post, which remain in the planning stages and may or may not ever occur.

For the life of me I can’t figure out why anyone would not want accurate projections in the CIP.

Everyone should want accurate projections in the CIP. Not everyone agrees that FCPS's short-term (five-year) projections should include students from developments where the developers haven't yet broken ground. They could do this, and then end up with meaningless projections because the numbers are consistently inflated.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Coates boundary process has maps including SPAs-school planning areas. https://www.fcps.edu/about-fcps/maps/boundary...chool-boundary-study
under 2025 are the maps https://www.fcps.edu/sites/default/files/Coates-Area-Boundary-Maps.pdf

Oak Hill is in the Coates boundary process which extends to Lake Anne in Reston. SPA map lists some SPA Forestville, Colvin Run, Forest Edge which are among those excluded from this process:
SPA 502- Holly Knoll- accesible via Route 7. North of Route 7 and west of Georgetown Pike intersection. Dranesville?
SPA 508- Herndon non town. Dranesville comprehensive review?
SPA 1111
SPA 1201- odd since it mixes 1 where you can not drive on 7 to get to a school and 1 that does.
SPA 1809-Forest Edge has a road that connects to SPA 1806 Colvin Run - no Route 7 drive to school if changed.
SPA 1209-need to drive on Route 7- currently longer to go to Colvin Run/Langley - shorter on 7 and less drive time to Forest Edge.

Good grief. They even included Lees Corner in the study. What are they thinking?

Makes sense. Lees Corner is mighty close to Westfield.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

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Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Chantilly: 22% Farms

Centreville: 36% Farms

Westfield: 36% Farms

Herndon: 55% farms

Fairfax HS: 40% Farms

Oakton is only 16%. Langley is only 4%. Ridiculous.

South Lakes: 35% Farms

How is it ridiculous? Should schools all have equal Farms rates? Certain towns/areas have low housing costs. Certain towns/areas have much higher housing costs. The houses near Langley all cost a fortune. The only way to increase the Farms rate would be to bus in kids from other parts of county with the sole purpose of adding poverty to the school. I checked out Zillow. There is one 3 bedroom condo for sale in McLean for $705,000 (nothing lower than this, I also don’t think FARMS families can afford $705k for a house). that is on the border of Langley/McLean High School. There aren’t even any low cost houses in McLean that you could redistrict to Langley to increase the FARMS rate.

This is a lie, and if you'd kept up with the thread you'd know it.

If they want they could absolutely adjust the Langley boundaries to add more diversity and still end up with kids having shorter commutes than the kids in expensive, single-family homes at Forestville getting bussed to Langley. It would mean moving parts of Tysons and Reston to Langley and parts of Great Falls to other pyramids.

Whether they should do that is a different question from whether they could do so.

Moving kids from Reston to Langley would
Make their commute just as long as most
Of the forestville kids. And would be significantly farther than their commute to south lakes. You’d just be trading who is doing the commute to balance farms rates.

Disagree. They would live closer to Langley than most of the Forestville kids.

Whether that juice is worth the squeeze is a fair question, but it's a move they could justify on a basis other than simply "balancing FARMS rates."

Exactly what area are you looking at? Aldrin is 12 miles from Langley, Forest edge 12 miles, lake Anne 13 miles, Armstrong 15 miles…

You don’t have to go that far to find lower income students closer to Langley. Tysons is much closer and The Exchange is very close to the current Langley border. I think that the outer edge of Langley/Herndon border will escape this round, but in 5 years, when the exchange is up and running - there will be more pressure to move it.

The only way they’ll significantly impact farms at langley is if they move low income housing into the school. Otherwise, people with means can just rent those units for the address and call it a day.

The Exchange is low income housing.

I know. Would have to be much more to move the needle.

It will have over 500 apartments. That will move the needle a bit.

Ok, like 60 kids in total, about five per grade. Technically it would move the needle a bit, but they’d have to do much more and zone it to Langley to really alter the school.

And long term, all we’re talking about is diminishing a high performing school in a way that’ll send more kids to private.

How do you get 60 kids in total?

DP. It's two buildings with 516 planned units currently zoned to Marshall. Using the historical yield formula, that would be about 14-15 more HS kids. It would be closer to 60 for the entire pyramid (ES, MS, and HS). The yield could always turn out to be higher.

There will be 98 three bedroom apartments and over 200 two bedroom apartments. Those will yield more than 60 students.

Cool. Now do TRG, HTOC, 555 Herndon Parkway, and Fairbrook. Or do we only want to count housing developments when it suits an agenda?

DP, but they've broken ground at the Exchange at Spring Hill and at Somos (two all-affordable housing complexes currently zoned to Marshall). You're referring to a bunch of plans that, in some cases, may never come to fruition or may not come to fruition for years.

It really won't tank Langley if the Exchange, which is near areas on the other side of the Toll Road already zoned to Langley, were reassigned there.

555 Exchange has broken ground too. About 500 residential units.

Any guess as to whether FCPS has included it in the CIP? I think we all know the answer.

Not as of mid-December 2024, it hadn't.

https://www.ffxnow.com/2024/12/19/design-approved-for-first-mixed-use-redevelopment-near-herndon-metro-station/

They haven’t voted on the final CIP. You’re telling me that within a month we went from a zero percent chance of 555 being built to a 100%?

Stop making excuses for their flawed CIP process. They should be accurate with their projections, not rigid with semantics that leads to hundreds of millions of dollars in costly mistakes.

I'm not saying anything about their CIP process. I'm saying construction has definitely begun on some AH projects in Tysons, and that hasn't yet happened with respect to many of the potential developments in Herndon.

If you have proof that the developer has broken ground on 555 Herndon Parkway, feel free to share.

Such a weird head-in-the-sand statement. Want me to drive by and capture forensic images? It’s broken ground.

Sure, knock yourself out. If the developer broke ground, it apparently happened very recently.

The same cannot be said for many of the projects mentioned in the earlier post, which remain in the planning stages and may or may not ever occur.

For the life of me I can’t figure out why anyone would not want accurate projections in the CIP.

Everyone should want accurate projections in the CIP. Not everyone agrees that FCPS's short-term (five-year) projections should include students from developments where the developers haven't yet broken ground. They could do this, and then end up with meaningless projections because the numbers are consistently inflated.

Have you ever heard of probability? You’re arguing these weird alternative facts that make absolutely zero sense.

They should count approved projects and give them an appropriate discount (e.g. 100 students, 80% chance of building = 80 students).

This is six grade math here and is not beyond their capabilities. It results in significantly improved projections that could save the county Hundreds of Millions of dollars.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Chantilly: 22% Farms

Centreville: 36% Farms

Westfield: 36% Farms

Herndon: 55% farms

Fairfax HS: 40% Farms

Oakton is only 16%. Langley is only 4%. Ridiculous.

South Lakes: 35% Farms

How is it ridiculous? Should schools all have equal Farms rates? Certain towns/areas have low housing costs. Certain towns/areas have much higher housing costs. The houses near Langley all cost a fortune. The only way to increase the Farms rate would be to bus in kids from other parts of county with the sole purpose of adding poverty to the school. I checked out Zillow. There is one 3 bedroom condo for sale in McLean for $705,000 (nothing lower than this, I also don’t think FARMS families can afford $705k for a house). that is on the border of Langley/McLean High School. There aren’t even any low cost houses in McLean that you could redistrict to Langley to increase the FARMS rate.

This is a lie, and if you'd kept up with the thread you'd know it.

If they want they could absolutely adjust the Langley boundaries to add more diversity and still end up with kids having shorter commutes than the kids in expensive, single-family homes at Forestville getting bussed to Langley. It would mean moving parts of Tysons and Reston to Langley and parts of Great Falls to other pyramids.

Whether they should do that is a different question from whether they could do so.

Moving kids from Reston to Langley would
Make their commute just as long as most
Of the forestville kids. And would be significantly farther than their commute to south lakes. You’d just be trading who is doing the commute to balance farms rates.

Disagree. They would live closer to Langley than most of the Forestville kids.

Whether that juice is worth the squeeze is a fair question, but it's a move they could justify on a basis other than simply "balancing FARMS rates."

Exactly what area are you looking at? Aldrin is 12 miles from Langley, Forest edge 12 miles, lake Anne 13 miles, Armstrong 15 miles…

You don’t have to go that far to find lower income students closer to Langley. Tysons is much closer and The Exchange is very close to the current Langley border. I think that the outer edge of Langley/Herndon border will escape this round, but in 5 years, when the exchange is up and running - there will be more pressure to move it.

The only way they’ll significantly impact farms at langley is if they move low income housing into the school. Otherwise, people with means can just rent those units for the address and call it a day.

The Exchange is low income housing.

I know. Would have to be much more to move the needle.

It will have over 500 apartments. That will move the needle a bit.

Ok, like 60 kids in total, about five per grade. Technically it would move the needle a bit, but they’d have to do much more and zone it to Langley to really alter the school.

And long term, all we’re talking about is diminishing a high performing school in a way that’ll send more kids to private.

How do you get 60 kids in total?

DP. It's two buildings with 516 planned units currently zoned to Marshall. Using the historical yield formula, that would be about 14-15 more HS kids. It would be closer to 60 for the entire pyramid (ES, MS, and HS). The yield could always turn out to be higher.

There will be 98 three bedroom apartments and over 200 two bedroom apartments. Those will yield more than 60 students.

Cool. Now do TRG, HTOC, 555 Herndon Parkway, and Fairbrook. Or do we only want to count housing developments when it suits an agenda?

DP, but they've broken ground at the Exchange at Spring Hill and at Somos (two all-affordable housing complexes currently zoned to Marshall). You're referring to a bunch of plans that, in some cases, may never come to fruition or may not come to fruition for years.

It really won't tank Langley if the Exchange, which is near areas on the other side of the Toll Road already zoned to Langley, were reassigned there.

555 Exchange has broken ground too. About 500 residential units.

Any guess as to whether FCPS has included it in the CIP? I think we all know the answer.

Not as of mid-December 2024, it hadn't.

https://www.ffxnow.com/2024/12/19/design-approved-for-first-mixed-use-redevelopment-near-herndon-metro-station/

They haven’t voted on the final CIP. You’re telling me that within a month we went from a zero percent chance of 555 being built to a 100%?

Stop making excuses for their flawed CIP process. They should be accurate with their projections, not rigid with semantics that leads to hundreds of millions of dollars in costly mistakes.

I'm not saying anything about their CIP process. I'm saying construction has definitely begun on some AH projects in Tysons, and that hasn't yet happened with respect to many of the potential developments in Herndon.

If you have proof that the developer has broken ground on 555 Herndon Parkway, feel free to share.

Such a weird head-in-the-sand statement. Want me to drive by and capture forensic images? It’s broken ground.

Sure, knock yourself out. If the developer broke ground, it apparently happened very recently.

The same cannot be said for many of the projects mentioned in the earlier post, which remain in the planning stages and may or may not ever occur.

For the life of me I can’t figure out why anyone would not want accurate projections in the CIP.

Everyone should want accurate projections in the CIP. Not everyone agrees that FCPS's short-term (five-year) projections should include students from developments where the developers haven't yet broken ground. They could do this, and then end up with meaningless projections because the numbers are consistently inflated.

Have you ever heard of probability? You’re arguing these weird alternative facts that make absolutely zero sense.

They should count approved projects and give them an appropriate discount (e.g. 100 students, 80% chance of building = 80 students).

This is six grade math here and is not beyond their capabilities. It results in significantly improved projections that could save the county Hundreds of Millions of dollars.

You should volunteer your time to help them develop a better forecasting model. It's not a simple task to accurately determine the likelihood of a project's ultimately getting built, but no doubt with your expertise they could up their game.

Otherwise, you're just one more poster claiming the projections for Herndon should be higher so moving Langley kids there seems less attractive to the BRAC and School Board.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

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Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

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Anonymous wrote:

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Anonymous wrote:

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Anonymous wrote:Chantilly: 22% Farms

Centreville: 36% Farms

Westfield: 36% Farms

Herndon: 55% farms

Fairfax HS: 40% Farms

Oakton is only 16%. Langley is only 4%. Ridiculous.

South Lakes: 35% Farms

How is it ridiculous? Should schools all have equal Farms rates? Certain towns/areas have low housing costs. Certain towns/areas have much higher housing costs. The houses near Langley all cost a fortune. The only way to increase the Farms rate would be to bus in kids from other parts of county with the sole purpose of adding poverty to the school. I checked out Zillow. There is one 3 bedroom condo for sale in McLean for $705,000 (nothing lower than this, I also don’t think FARMS families can afford $705k for a house). that is on the border of Langley/McLean High School. There aren’t even any low cost houses in McLean that you could redistrict to Langley to increase the FARMS rate.

This is a lie, and if you'd kept up with the thread you'd know it.

If they want they could absolutely adjust the Langley boundaries to add more diversity and still end up with kids having shorter commutes than the kids in expensive, single-family homes at Forestville getting bussed to Langley. It would mean moving parts of Tysons and Reston to Langley and parts of Great Falls to other pyramids.

Whether they should do that is a different question from whether they could do so.

Moving kids from Reston to Langley would
Make their commute just as long as most
Of the forestville kids. And would be significantly farther than their commute to south lakes. You’d just be trading who is doing the commute to balance farms rates.

Disagree. They would live closer to Langley than most of the Forestville kids.

Whether that juice is worth the squeeze is a fair question, but it's a move they could justify on a basis other than simply "balancing FARMS rates."

Exactly what area are you looking at? Aldrin is 12 miles from Langley, Forest edge 12 miles, lake Anne 13 miles, Armstrong 15 miles…

You don’t have to go that far to find lower income students closer to Langley. Tysons is much closer and The Exchange is very close to the current Langley border. I think that the outer edge of Langley/Herndon border will escape this round, but in 5 years, when the exchange is up and running - there will be more pressure to move it.

The only way they’ll significantly impact farms at langley is if they move low income housing into the school. Otherwise, people with means can just rent those units for the address and call it a day.

The Exchange is low income housing.

I know. Would have to be much more to move the needle.

It will have over 500 apartments. That will move the needle a bit.

Ok, like 60 kids in total, about five per grade. Technically it would move the needle a bit, but they’d have to do much more and zone it to Langley to really alter the school.

And long term, all we’re talking about is diminishing a high performing school in a way that’ll send more kids to private.

How do you get 60 kids in total?

DP. It's two buildings with 516 planned units currently zoned to Marshall. Using the historical yield formula, that would be about 14-15 more HS kids. It would be closer to 60 for the entire pyramid (ES, MS, and HS). The yield could always turn out to be higher.

There will be 98 three bedroom apartments and over 200 two bedroom apartments. Those will yield more than 60 students.

Cool. Now do TRG, HTOC, 555 Herndon Parkway, and Fairbrook. Or do we only want to count housing developments when it suits an agenda?

DP, but they've broken ground at the Exchange at Spring Hill and at Somos (two all-affordable housing complexes currently zoned to Marshall). You're referring to a bunch of plans that, in some cases, may never come to fruition or may not come to fruition for years.

It really won't tank Langley if the Exchange, which is near areas on the other side of the Toll Road already zoned to Langley, were reassigned there.

555 Exchange has broken ground too. About 500 residential units.

Any guess as to whether FCPS has included it in the CIP? I think we all know the answer.

Not as of mid-December 2024, it hadn't.

https://www.ffxnow.com/2024/12/19/design-approved-for-first-mixed-use-redevelopment-near-herndon-metro-station/

They haven’t voted on the final CIP. You’re telling me that within a month we went from a zero percent chance of 555 being built to a 100%?

Stop making excuses for their flawed CIP process. They should be accurate with their projections, not rigid with semantics that leads to hundreds of millions of dollars in costly mistakes.

I'm not saying anything about their CIP process. I'm saying construction has definitely begun on some AH projects in Tysons, and that hasn't yet happened with respect to many of the potential developments in Herndon.

If you have proof that the developer has broken ground on 555 Herndon Parkway, feel free to share.

Such a weird head-in-the-sand statement. Want me to drive by and capture forensic images? It’s broken ground.

Sure, knock yourself out. If the developer broke ground, it apparently happened very recently.

The same cannot be said for many of the projects mentioned in the earlier post, which remain in the planning stages and may or may not ever occur.

For the life of me I can’t figure out why anyone would not want accurate projections in the CIP.

Everyone should want accurate projections in the CIP. Not everyone agrees that FCPS's short-term (five-year) projections should include students from developments where the developers haven't yet broken ground. They could do this, and then end up with meaningless projections because the numbers are consistently inflated.

Have you ever heard of probability? You’re arguing these weird alternative facts that make absolutely zero sense.

They should count approved projects and give them an appropriate discount (e.g. 100 students, 80% chance of building = 80 students).

This is six grade math here and is not beyond their capabilities. It results in significantly improved projections that could save the county Hundreds of Millions of dollars.

You should volunteer your time to help them develop a better forecasting model. It's not a simple task to accurately determine the likelihood of a project's ultimately getting built, but no doubt with your expertise they could up their game.

Otherwise, you're just one more poster claiming the projections for Herndon should be higher so moving Langley kids there seems less attractive to the BRAC and School Board.

So weird to be against reliable good projections. It’s unfortunate your agenda seems to blind you to the true costs of these underestimations, including crowding the schools of the very kids you are trying to help.

Btw, how would you propose I help out? Seems like it should be FPAC, but they are also at the switch. Or maybe it could be the FCPS staff who are actually being paid by the taxpayers to create the projections?

[Anonymous]

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Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Chantilly: 22% Farms

Centreville: 36% Farms

Westfield: 36% Farms

Herndon: 55% farms

Fairfax HS: 40% Farms

Oakton is only 16%. Langley is only 4%. Ridiculous.

South Lakes: 35% Farms

How is it ridiculous? Should schools all have equal Farms rates? Certain towns/areas have low housing costs. Certain towns/areas have much higher housing costs. The houses near Langley all cost a fortune. The only way to increase the Farms rate would be to bus in kids from other parts of county with the sole purpose of adding poverty to the school. I checked out Zillow. There is one 3 bedroom condo for sale in McLean for $705,000 (nothing lower than this, I also don’t think FARMS families can afford $705k for a house). that is on the border of Langley/McLean High School. There aren’t even any low cost houses in McLean that you could redistrict to Langley to increase the FARMS rate.

This is a lie, and if you'd kept up with the thread you'd know it.

If they want they could absolutely adjust the Langley boundaries to add more diversity and still end up with kids having shorter commutes than the kids in expensive, single-family homes at Forestville getting bussed to Langley. It would mean moving parts of Tysons and Reston to Langley and parts of Great Falls to other pyramids.

Whether they should do that is a different question from whether they could do so.

Moving kids from Reston to Langley would
Make their commute just as long as most
Of the forestville kids. And would be significantly farther than their commute to south lakes. You’d just be trading who is doing the commute to balance farms rates.

Disagree. They would live closer to Langley than most of the Forestville kids.

Whether that juice is worth the squeeze is a fair question, but it's a move they could justify on a basis other than simply "balancing FARMS rates."

Exactly what area are you looking at? Aldrin is 12 miles from Langley, Forest edge 12 miles, lake Anne 13 miles, Armstrong 15 miles…

You don’t have to go that far to find lower income students closer to Langley. Tysons is much closer and The Exchange is very close to the current Langley border. I think that the outer edge of Langley/Herndon border will escape this round, but in 5 years, when the exchange is up and running - there will be more pressure to move it.

The only way they’ll significantly impact farms at langley is if they move low income housing into the school. Otherwise, people with means can just rent those units for the address and call it a day.

The Exchange is low income housing.

I know. Would have to be much more to move the needle.

It will have over 500 apartments. That will move the needle a bit.

Ok, like 60 kids in total, about five per grade. Technically it would move the needle a bit, but they’d have to do much more and zone it to Langley to really alter the school.

And long term, all we’re talking about is diminishing a high performing school in a way that’ll send more kids to private.

How do you get 60 kids in total?

DP. It's two buildings with 516 planned units currently zoned to Marshall. Using the historical yield formula, that would be about 14-15 more HS kids. It would be closer to 60 for the entire pyramid (ES, MS, and HS). The yield could always turn out to be higher.

There will be 98 three bedroom apartments and over 200 two bedroom apartments. Those will yield more than 60 students.

Cool. Now do TRG, HTOC, 555 Herndon Parkway, and Fairbrook. Or do we only want to count housing developments when it suits an agenda?

DP, but they've broken ground at the Exchange at Spring Hill and at Somos (two all-affordable housing complexes currently zoned to Marshall). You're referring to a bunch of plans that, in some cases, may never come to fruition or may not come to fruition for years.

It really won't tank Langley if the Exchange, which is near areas on the other side of the Toll Road already zoned to Langley, were reassigned there.

555 Exchange has broken ground too. About 500 residential units.

Any guess as to whether FCPS has included it in the CIP? I think we all know the answer.

Not as of mid-December 2024, it hadn't.

https://www.ffxnow.com/2024/12/19/design-approved-for-first-mixed-use-redevelopment-near-herndon-metro-station/

They haven’t voted on the final CIP. You’re telling me that within a month we went from a zero percent chance of 555 being built to a 100%?

Stop making excuses for their flawed CIP process. They should be accurate with their projections, not rigid with semantics that leads to hundreds of millions of dollars in costly mistakes.

I'm not saying anything about their CIP process. I'm saying construction has definitely begun on some AH projects in Tysons, and that hasn't yet happened with respect to many of the potential developments in Herndon.

If you have proof that the developer has broken ground on 555 Herndon Parkway, feel free to share.

Such a weird head-in-the-sand statement. Want me to drive by and capture forensic images? It’s broken ground.

Sure, knock yourself out. If the developer broke ground, it apparently happened very recently.

The same cannot be said for many of the projects mentioned in the earlier post, which remain in the planning stages and may or may not ever occur.

For the life of me I can’t figure out why anyone would not want accurate projections in the CIP.

Everyone should want accurate projections in the CIP. Not everyone agrees that FCPS's short-term (five-year) projections should include students from developments where the developers haven't yet broken ground. They could do this, and then end up with meaningless projections because the numbers are consistently inflated.

Have you ever heard of probability? You’re arguing these weird alternative facts that make absolutely zero sense.

They should count approved projects and give them an appropriate discount (e.g. 100 students, 80% chance of building = 80 students).

This is six grade math here and is not beyond their capabilities. It results in significantly improved projections that could save the county Hundreds of Millions of dollars.

You should volunteer your time to help them develop a better forecasting model. It's not a simple task to accurately determine the likelihood of a project's ultimately getting built, but no doubt with your expertise they could up their game.

Otherwise, you're just one more poster claiming the projections for Herndon should be higher so moving Langley kids there seems less attractive to the BRAC and School Board.

So weird to be against reliable good projections. It’s unfortunate your agenda seems to blind you to the true costs of these underestimations, including crowding the schools of the very kids you are trying to help.

Btw, how would you propose I help out? Seems like it should be FPAC, but they are also at the switch. Or maybe it could be the FCPS staff who are actually being paid by the taxpayers to create the projections?

I agree with PP. Put up or shut up.

[Anonymous]

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Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Chantilly: 22% Farms

Centreville: 36% Farms

Westfield: 36% Farms

Herndon: 55% farms

Fairfax HS: 40% Farms

Oakton is only 16%. Langley is only 4%. Ridiculous.

South Lakes: 35% Farms

How is it ridiculous? Should schools all have equal Farms rates? Certain towns/areas have low housing costs. Certain towns/areas have much higher housing costs. The houses near Langley all cost a fortune. The only way to increase the Farms rate would be to bus in kids from other parts of county with the sole purpose of adding poverty to the school. I checked out Zillow. There is one 3 bedroom condo for sale in McLean for $705,000 (nothing lower than this, I also don’t think FARMS families can afford $705k for a house). that is on the border of Langley/McLean High School. There aren’t even any low cost houses in McLean that you could redistrict to Langley to increase the FARMS rate.

This is a lie, and if you'd kept up with the thread you'd know it.

If they want they could absolutely adjust the Langley boundaries to add more diversity and still end up with kids having shorter commutes than the kids in expensive, single-family homes at Forestville getting bussed to Langley. It would mean moving parts of Tysons and Reston to Langley and parts of Great Falls to other pyramids.

Whether they should do that is a different question from whether they could do so.

Moving kids from Reston to Langley would
Make their commute just as long as most
Of the forestville kids. And would be significantly farther than their commute to south lakes. You’d just be trading who is doing the commute to balance farms rates.

Disagree. They would live closer to Langley than most of the Forestville kids.

Whether that juice is worth the squeeze is a fair question, but it's a move they could justify on a basis other than simply "balancing FARMS rates."

Exactly what area are you looking at? Aldrin is 12 miles from Langley, Forest edge 12 miles, lake Anne 13 miles, Armstrong 15 miles…

You don’t have to go that far to find lower income students closer to Langley. Tysons is much closer and The Exchange is very close to the current Langley border. I think that the outer edge of Langley/Herndon border will escape this round, but in 5 years, when the exchange is up and running - there will be more pressure to move it.

The only way they’ll significantly impact farms at langley is if they move low income housing into the school. Otherwise, people with means can just rent those units for the address and call it a day.

The Exchange is low income housing.

I know. Would have to be much more to move the needle.

It will have over 500 apartments. That will move the needle a bit.

Ok, like 60 kids in total, about five per grade. Technically it would move the needle a bit, but they’d have to do much more and zone it to Langley to really alter the school.

And long term, all we’re talking about is diminishing a high performing school in a way that’ll send more kids to private.

How do you get 60 kids in total?

DP. It's two buildings with 516 planned units currently zoned to Marshall. Using the historical yield formula, that would be about 14-15 more HS kids. It would be closer to 60 for the entire pyramid (ES, MS, and HS). The yield could always turn out to be higher.

There will be 98 three bedroom apartments and over 200 two bedroom apartments. Those will yield more than 60 students.

Cool. Now do TRG, HTOC, 555 Herndon Parkway, and Fairbrook. Or do we only want to count housing developments when it suits an agenda?

DP, but they've broken ground at the Exchange at Spring Hill and at Somos (two all-affordable housing complexes currently zoned to Marshall). You're referring to a bunch of plans that, in some cases, may never come to fruition or may not come to fruition for years.

It really won't tank Langley if the Exchange, which is near areas on the other side of the Toll Road already zoned to Langley, were reassigned there.

555 Exchange has broken ground too. About 500 residential units.

Any guess as to whether FCPS has included it in the CIP? I think we all know the answer.

Not as of mid-December 2024, it hadn't.

https://www.ffxnow.com/2024/12/19/design-approved-for-first-mixed-use-redevelopment-near-herndon-metro-station/

They haven’t voted on the final CIP. You’re telling me that within a month we went from a zero percent chance of 555 being built to a 100%?

Stop making excuses for their flawed CIP process. They should be accurate with their projections, not rigid with semantics that leads to hundreds of millions of dollars in costly mistakes.

I'm not saying anything about their CIP process. I'm saying construction has definitely begun on some AH projects in Tysons, and that hasn't yet happened with respect to many of the potential developments in Herndon.

If you have proof that the developer has broken ground on 555 Herndon Parkway, feel free to share.

Such a weird head-in-the-sand statement. Want me to drive by and capture forensic images? It’s broken ground.

Sure, knock yourself out. If the developer broke ground, it apparently happened very recently.

The same cannot be said for many of the projects mentioned in the earlier post, which remain in the planning stages and may or may not ever occur.

For the life of me I can’t figure out why anyone would not want accurate projections in the CIP.

Everyone should want accurate projections in the CIP. Not everyone agrees that FCPS's short-term (five-year) projections should include students from developments where the developers haven't yet broken ground. They could do this, and then end up with meaningless projections because the numbers are consistently inflated.

Have you ever heard of probability? You’re arguing these weird alternative facts that make absolutely zero sense.

They should count approved projects and give them an appropriate discount (e.g. 100 students, 80% chance of building = 80 students).

This is six grade math here and is not beyond their capabilities. It results in significantly improved projections that could save the county Hundreds of Millions of dollars.

You should volunteer your time to help them develop a better forecasting model. It's not a simple task to accurately determine the likelihood of a project's ultimately getting built, but no doubt with your expertise they could up their game.

Otherwise, you're just one more poster claiming the projections for Herndon should be higher so moving Langley kids there seems less attractive to the BRAC and School Board.

So weird to be against reliable good projections. It’s unfortunate your agenda seems to blind you to the true costs of these underestimations, including crowding the schools of the very kids you are trying to help.

Btw, how would you propose I help out? Seems like it should be FPAC, but they are also at the switch. Or maybe it could be the FCPS staff who are actually being paid by the taxpayers to create the projections?

I agree with PP. Put up or shut up.

Put up what? I’ve already told you that they have a near 500 residential unit that has broken ground. Tell me how I can help them with their obviously wrong projections? Who should I contact? Is it really my responsibility to be a steward of FCPS money?

Make it make sense.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

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Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

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Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Chantilly: 22% Farms

Centreville: 36% Farms

Westfield: 36% Farms

Herndon: 55% farms

Fairfax HS: 40% Farms

Oakton is only 16%. Langley is only 4%. Ridiculous.

South Lakes: 35% Farms

How is it ridiculous? Should schools all have equal Farms rates? Certain towns/areas have low housing costs. Certain towns/areas have much higher housing costs. The houses near Langley all cost a fortune. The only way to increase the Farms rate would be to bus in kids from other parts of county with the sole purpose of adding poverty to the school. I checked out Zillow. There is one 3 bedroom condo for sale in McLean for $705,000 (nothing lower than this, I also don’t think FARMS families can afford $705k for a house). that is on the border of Langley/McLean High School. There aren’t even any low cost houses in McLean that you could redistrict to Langley to increase the FARMS rate.

This is a lie, and if you'd kept up with the thread you'd know it.

If they want they could absolutely adjust the Langley boundaries to add more diversity and still end up with kids having shorter commutes than the kids in expensive, single-family homes at Forestville getting bussed to Langley. It would mean moving parts of Tysons and Reston to Langley and parts of Great Falls to other pyramids.

Whether they should do that is a different question from whether they could do so.

Moving kids from Reston to Langley would
Make their commute just as long as most
Of the forestville kids. And would be significantly farther than their commute to south lakes. You’d just be trading who is doing the commute to balance farms rates.

Disagree. They would live closer to Langley than most of the Forestville kids.

Whether that juice is worth the squeeze is a fair question, but it's a move they could justify on a basis other than simply "balancing FARMS rates."

Exactly what area are you looking at? Aldrin is 12 miles from Langley, Forest edge 12 miles, lake Anne 13 miles, Armstrong 15 miles…

You don’t have to go that far to find lower income students closer to Langley. Tysons is much closer and The Exchange is very close to the current Langley border. I think that the outer edge of Langley/Herndon border will escape this round, but in 5 years, when the exchange is up and running - there will be more pressure to move it.

The only way they’ll significantly impact farms at langley is if they move low income housing into the school. Otherwise, people with means can just rent those units for the address and call it a day.

The Exchange is low income housing.

I know. Would have to be much more to move the needle.

It will have over 500 apartments. That will move the needle a bit.

Ok, like 60 kids in total, about five per grade. Technically it would move the needle a bit, but they’d have to do much more and zone it to Langley to really alter the school.

And long term, all we’re talking about is diminishing a high performing school in a way that’ll send more kids to private.

How do you get 60 kids in total?

DP. It's two buildings with 516 planned units currently zoned to Marshall. Using the historical yield formula, that would be about 14-15 more HS kids. It would be closer to 60 for the entire pyramid (ES, MS, and HS). The yield could always turn out to be higher.

There will be 98 three bedroom apartments and over 200 two bedroom apartments. Those will yield more than 60 students.

Cool. Now do TRG, HTOC, 555 Herndon Parkway, and Fairbrook. Or do we only want to count housing developments when it suits an agenda?

DP, but they've broken ground at the Exchange at Spring Hill and at Somos (two all-affordable housing complexes currently zoned to Marshall). You're referring to a bunch of plans that, in some cases, may never come to fruition or may not come to fruition for years.

It really won't tank Langley if the Exchange, which is near areas on the other side of the Toll Road already zoned to Langley, were reassigned there.

555 Exchange has broken ground too. About 500 residential units.

Any guess as to whether FCPS has included it in the CIP? I think we all know the answer.

Not as of mid-December 2024, it hadn't.

https://www.ffxnow.com/2024/12/19/design-approved-for-first-mixed-use-redevelopment-near-herndon-metro-station/

They haven’t voted on the final CIP. You’re telling me that within a month we went from a zero percent chance of 555 being built to a 100%?

Stop making excuses for their flawed CIP process. They should be accurate with their projections, not rigid with semantics that leads to hundreds of millions of dollars in costly mistakes.

I'm not saying anything about their CIP process. I'm saying construction has definitely begun on some AH projects in Tysons, and that hasn't yet happened with respect to many of the potential developments in Herndon.

If you have proof that the developer has broken ground on 555 Herndon Parkway, feel free to share.

Such a weird head-in-the-sand statement. Want me to drive by and capture forensic images? It’s broken ground.

Sure, knock yourself out. If the developer broke ground, it apparently happened very recently.

The same cannot be said for many of the projects mentioned in the earlier post, which remain in the planning stages and may or may not ever occur.

For the life of me I can’t figure out why anyone would not want accurate projections in the CIP.

Everyone should want accurate projections in the CIP. Not everyone agrees that FCPS's short-term (five-year) projections should include students from developments where the developers haven't yet broken ground. They could do this, and then end up with meaningless projections because the numbers are consistently inflated.

Have you ever heard of probability? You’re arguing these weird alternative facts that make absolutely zero sense.

They should count approved projects and give them an appropriate discount (e.g. 100 students, 80% chance of building = 80 students).

This is six grade math here and is not beyond their capabilities. It results in significantly improved projections that could save the county Hundreds of Millions of dollars.

You should volunteer your time to help them develop a better forecasting model. It's not a simple task to accurately determine the likelihood of a project's ultimately getting built, but no doubt with your expertise they could up their game.

Otherwise, you're just one more poster claiming the projections for Herndon should be higher so moving Langley kids there seems less attractive to the BRAC and School Board.

So weird to be against reliable good projections. It’s unfortunate your agenda seems to blind you to the true costs of these underestimations, including crowding the schools of the very kids you are trying to help.

Btw, how would you propose I help out? Seems like it should be FPAC, but they are also at the switch. Or maybe it could be the FCPS staff who are actually being paid by the taxpayers to create the projections?

Reach out to the facilities staff (Janice Szymanski) and tell her you have insights as to how FCPS can improve the reliability of their forecasts. The facilities staff is not that large and they have long followed a conservative approach to short-term enrollment projections. They aren’t going to change that just because some Langley parent attacks them online.

Educate them on what types of potential projects should also be included in their projections and what types of discounts or haircuts would be warranted while also leading to more accurate projections. If you think there are other potential benefits, explain them as well.

Finally, make sure they understand that you agree any revised approach is applied consistently. If they are going to adjust for future developments in Herndon where a developer hasn’t yet broken ground, they should do so in Reston, Tysons, McLean, and other areas slated for growth (such as the Embark area in Alexandria) as well.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Chantilly: 22% Farms

Centreville: 36% Farms

Westfield: 36% Farms

Herndon: 55% farms

Fairfax HS: 40% Farms

Oakton is only 16%. Langley is only 4%. Ridiculous.

South Lakes: 35% Farms

How is it ridiculous? Should schools all have equal Farms rates? Certain towns/areas have low housing costs. Certain towns/areas have much higher housing costs. The houses near Langley all cost a fortune. The only way to increase the Farms rate would be to bus in kids from other parts of county with the sole purpose of adding poverty to the school. I checked out Zillow. There is one 3 bedroom condo for sale in McLean for $705,000 (nothing lower than this, I also don’t think FARMS families can afford $705k for a house). that is on the border of Langley/McLean High School. There aren’t even any low cost houses in McLean that you could redistrict to Langley to increase the FARMS rate.

This is a lie, and if you'd kept up with the thread you'd know it.

If they want they could absolutely adjust the Langley boundaries to add more diversity and still end up with kids having shorter commutes than the kids in expensive, single-family homes at Forestville getting bussed to Langley. It would mean moving parts of Tysons and Reston to Langley and parts of Great Falls to other pyramids.

Whether they should do that is a different question from whether they could do so.

Moving kids from Reston to Langley would
Make their commute just as long as most
Of the forestville kids. And would be significantly farther than their commute to south lakes. You’d just be trading who is doing the commute to balance farms rates.

Disagree. They would live closer to Langley than most of the Forestville kids.

Whether that juice is worth the squeeze is a fair question, but it's a move they could justify on a basis other than simply "balancing FARMS rates."

Exactly what area are you looking at? Aldrin is 12 miles from Langley, Forest edge 12 miles, lake Anne 13 miles, Armstrong 15 miles…

You don’t have to go that far to find lower income students closer to Langley. Tysons is much closer and The Exchange is very close to the current Langley border. I think that the outer edge of Langley/Herndon border will escape this round, but in 5 years, when the exchange is up and running - there will be more pressure to move it.

The only way they’ll significantly impact farms at langley is if they move low income housing into the school. Otherwise, people with means can just rent those units for the address and call it a day.

The Exchange is low income housing.

I know. Would have to be much more to move the needle.

It will have over 500 apartments. That will move the needle a bit.

Ok, like 60 kids in total, about five per grade. Technically it would move the needle a bit, but they’d have to do much more and zone it to Langley to really alter the school.

And long term, all we’re talking about is diminishing a high performing school in a way that’ll send more kids to private.

How do you get 60 kids in total?

DP. It's two buildings with 516 planned units currently zoned to Marshall. Using the historical yield formula, that would be about 14-15 more HS kids. It would be closer to 60 for the entire pyramid (ES, MS, and HS). The yield could always turn out to be higher.

There will be 98 three bedroom apartments and over 200 two bedroom apartments. Those will yield more than 60 students.

Cool. Now do TRG, HTOC, 555 Herndon Parkway, and Fairbrook. Or do we only want to count housing developments when it suits an agenda?

DP, but they've broken ground at the Exchange at Spring Hill and at Somos (two all-affordable housing complexes currently zoned to Marshall). You're referring to a bunch of plans that, in some cases, may never come to fruition or may not come to fruition for years.

It really won't tank Langley if the Exchange, which is near areas on the other side of the Toll Road already zoned to Langley, were reassigned there.

555 Exchange has broken ground too. About 500 residential units.

Any guess as to whether FCPS has included it in the CIP? I think we all know the answer.

Not as of mid-December 2024, it hadn't.

https://www.ffxnow.com/2024/12/19/design-approved-for-first-mixed-use-redevelopment-near-herndon-metro-station/

They haven’t voted on the final CIP. You’re telling me that within a month we went from a zero percent chance of 555 being built to a 100%?

Stop making excuses for their flawed CIP process. They should be accurate with their projections, not rigid with semantics that leads to hundreds of millions of dollars in costly mistakes.

I'm not saying anything about their CIP process. I'm saying construction has definitely begun on some AH projects in Tysons, and that hasn't yet happened with respect to many of the potential developments in Herndon.

If you have proof that the developer has broken ground on 555 Herndon Parkway, feel free to share.

Such a weird head-in-the-sand statement. Want me to drive by and capture forensic images? It’s broken ground.

Sure, knock yourself out. If the developer broke ground, it apparently happened very recently.

The same cannot be said for many of the projects mentioned in the earlier post, which remain in the planning stages and may or may not ever occur.

For the life of me I can’t figure out why anyone would not want accurate projections in the CIP.

Everyone should want accurate projections in the CIP. Not everyone agrees that FCPS's short-term (five-year) projections should include students from developments where the developers haven't yet broken ground. They could do this, and then end up with meaningless projections because the numbers are consistently inflated.

Have you ever heard of probability? You’re arguing these weird alternative facts that make absolutely zero sense.

They should count approved projects and give them an appropriate discount (e.g. 100 students, 80% chance of building = 80 students).

This is six grade math here and is not beyond their capabilities. It results in significantly improved projections that could save the county Hundreds of Millions of dollars.

You should volunteer your time to help them develop a better forecasting model. It's not a simple task to accurately determine the likelihood of a project's ultimately getting built, but no doubt with your expertise they could up their game.

Otherwise, you're just one more poster claiming the projections for Herndon should be higher so moving Langley kids there seems less attractive to the BRAC and School Board.

So weird to be against reliable good projections. It’s unfortunate your agenda seems to blind you to the true costs of these underestimations, including crowding the schools of the very kids you are trying to help.

Btw, how would you propose I help out? Seems like it should be FPAC, but they are also at the switch. Or maybe it could be the FCPS staff who are actually being paid by the taxpayers to create the projections?

Reach out to the facilities staff (Janice Szymanski) and tell her you have insights as to how FCPS can improve the reliability of their forecasts. The facilities staff is not that large and they have long followed a conservative approach to short-term enrollment projections. They aren’t going to change that just because some Langley parent attacks them online.

Educate them on what types of potential projects should also be included in their projections and what types of discounts or haircuts would be warranted while also leading to more accurate projections. If you think there are other potential benefits, explain them as well.

Finally, make sure they understand that you agree any revised approach is applied consistently. If they are going to adjust for future developments in Herndon where a developer hasn’t yet broken ground, they should do so in Reston, Tysons, McLean, and other areas slated for growth (such as the Embark area in Alexandria) as well.

I’ve consistently said that those standards should apply everywhere. Nobody benefits from bad projections, nobody. This isn’t agenda-driven for me, it’s just how to use our money most effectively.

As I’ve said before, the cost for bad projections can be measured in the hundreds of millions. If FCPS wants the public on their side, they can’t claim that they are cash strapped while at the same time throwing good money after bad on unnecessary expansions.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Coates boundary process has maps including SPAs-school planning areas. https://www.fcps.edu/about-fcps/maps/boundary...chool-boundary-study
under 2025 are the maps https://www.fcps.edu/sites/default/files/Coates-Area-Boundary-Maps.pdf

Oak Hill is in the Coates boundary process which extends to Lake Anne in Reston. SPA map lists some SPA Forestville, Colvin Run, Forest Edge which are among those excluded from this process:
SPA 502- Holly Knoll- accesible via Route 7. North of Route 7 and west of Georgetown Pike intersection. Dranesville?
SPA 508- Herndon non town. Dranesville comprehensive review?
SPA 1111
SPA 1201- odd since it mixes 1 where you can not drive on 7 to get to a school and 1 that does.
SPA 1809-Forest Edge has a road that connects to SPA 1806 Colvin Run - no Route 7 drive to school if changed.
SPA 1209-need to drive on Route 7- currently longer to go to Colvin Run/Langley - shorter on 7 and less drive time to Forest Edge.

Good grief. They even included Lees Corner in the study. What are they thinking?

Makes sense. Lees Corner is mighty close to Westfield.

Lees Corner is 1 mil3 from Chanti.ly. it makes no sense.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Coates boundary process has maps including SPAs-school planning areas. https://www.fcps.edu/about-fcps/maps/boundary...chool-boundary-study
under 2025 are the maps https://www.fcps.edu/sites/default/files/Coates-Area-Boundary-Maps.pdf

Oak Hill is in the Coates boundary process which extends to Lake Anne in Reston. SPA map lists some SPA Forestville, Colvin Run, Forest Edge which are among those excluded from this process:
SPA 502- Holly Knoll- accesible via Route 7. North of Route 7 and west of Georgetown Pike intersection. Dranesville?
SPA 508- Herndon non town. Dranesville comprehensive review?
SPA 1111
SPA 1201- odd since it mixes 1 where you can not drive on 7 to get to a school and 1 that does.
SPA 1809-Forest Edge has a road that connects to SPA 1806 Colvin Run - no Route 7 drive to school if changed.
SPA 1209-need to drive on Route 7- currently longer to go to Colvin Run/Langley - shorter on 7 and less drive time to Forest Edge.

Good grief. They even included Lees Corner in the study. What are they thinking?

Makes sense. Lees Corner is mighty close to Westfield.

Lees Corner is 1 mil3 from Chanti.ly. it makes no sense.

Yes, it does. Especially if they are going to shift Westfield boundaries - smart to look at all the schools that could be affected.

[Anonymous]

I read that all of Waples Mill ES will be moved from Oakton HS to Fairfax HS. It doesn’t make any sense. Waples Mill ES is the only elementary school within Oakton, and Waples Mill families are much closer to Oakton HS than Fairfax HS than many famines that are zones to Oakton HS.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Coates boundary process has maps including SPAs-school planning areas. https://www.fcps.edu/about-fcps/maps/boundary...chool-boundary-study
under 2025 are the maps https://www.fcps.edu/sites/default/files/Coates-Area-Boundary-Maps.pdf

Oak Hill is in the Coates boundary process which extends to Lake Anne in Reston. SPA map lists some SPA Forestville, Colvin Run, Forest Edge which are among those excluded from this process:
SPA 502- Holly Knoll- accesible via Route 7. North of Route 7 and west of Georgetown Pike intersection. Dranesville?
SPA 508- Herndon non town. Dranesville comprehensive review?
SPA 1111
SPA 1201- odd since it mixes 1 where you can not drive on 7 to get to a school and 1 that does.
SPA 1809-Forest Edge has a road that connects to SPA 1806 Colvin Run - no Route 7 drive to school if changed.
SPA 1209-need to drive on Route 7- currently longer to go to Colvin Run/Langley - shorter on 7 and less drive time to Forest Edge.

Good grief. They even included Lees Corner in the study. What are they thinking?

Makes sense. Lees Corner is mighty close to Westfield.

Lees Corner is 1 mil3 from Chanti.ly. it makes no sense.

This post makes no sense.