FCPS HS Boundary

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The only way to really fix under performing schools is to pool them with a much larger population. Like pooling the entire populations of Lewis SoCo and WS. Something like that. Moving 350 kids will do nothing.

Yeah you need a big, BIG-ass school to really be able to offer all the classes and all the opportunities that exist more naturally at small yet affluent schools. ACHS (formerly TC Williams) has I think 2900 JUST in grades 10-12 and an additional amount in the 9th grade building. Moving a few neighborhoods won’t do it. Moving an entire ES will have more of an impact but not as much as people are hoping.

Especially since a large percentage of those families getting rezoned from one of the top schools in the county to one of the worst schools in the county will either move the kids to one of the Catholic/Christian/private high schools, or discover a love of Japanese to transfer to Lake Braddock.

The remaining 25 to 40 kids per grade who are resentful about being transferred from their neighborhood school are not going to transform Lewis, no matter how often the pro rezoning folks repeat that those kids are the key to success.

Bingo

I’m if we were reasoned to an underperforming school, we would move, pupil place, go private or rent an apartment in the district we were always trying to be in.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Just because every boundary is reviewed every 5 years doesn't mean it will change every 5 years. Even in a "comprehensive review" this time where every boundary is looked at there will be some that won't change. That's after not having such a comprehensive review for 40 years. Why do you seem to think everything is going to change so much every 5 years?

Straw man argument. No one is asserting that the change will necessarily be drastic every 5 years.

If the school board wants the policy mandate to be able to redraw the county from scratch every five years, it certainly isn’t because they have no intention of doing so.

It will also serve as discouragement to any family looking to move a few blocks or miles to return to or go to a desired school. Why would they with an impending boundary review hanging over their heads.

Personally, I think this could be great. Break forever the link between government schools and community.
Look at all the harm caused when the government closed its doors to students for months.

Kids lost their (for many vitally stabilizing) routines, daily contact with friends and important sports and activities. Not to mention the academic damage (suffered most by those without the time and money to lessen the impact by going private, hiring tutors or homeschooling.)

We didn’t even think about the power we gave, quite unnecessarily, to the government over that aspect of life.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I was thinking about a plan for Tysons/Herndon and came up with the following:

New Langley: Churchill Road, Colvin Run, Great Falls, Spring Hill, Westgate [assume Westbriar island reassigned to Colvin Run and part of Colvin Run to Great Falls]

New McLean: Chesterbrook, Franklin Sherman, Haycock, Kent Gardens, Lemon Road

New Marshall: [Dunn Loring], Freedom Hill, Shrevewood, Stenwood, Timber Lane, Westbriar

New Madison: Archer, Cunningham Park, Flint Hill, Marshall Road, Vienna, Wolftrap
New Herndon: Aldrin, Armstrong, Clearview, Dranesville, Forestville, Herndon, Hutchison

This puts parts of Tysons (bolded schools) at each of Langley, McLean, and Marshall, assigns more feeders to Madison because it's a slower growth area, and assigns even more feeders to Herndon because it's now a large school with 2700 seats. No split feeders and no attendance islands.

While you make think this is a great plan someone at the school board and FPAC said a reason for 8130 revision is to start all boundaries from scratch at all levels. Elementary, middle and high. If you think you’re safe good luck because the SB is about to cause a massive disruption.

I was assuming there would be some ES and MS adjustments as well but they aren’t going to be able to relocate buildings so this was a scenario based on the capacities of the schools and the desire to eliminate any split feeders and attendance islands.

I think this is something that hasn't gotten a lot of attention- be prepared for large scale ES and MS boundary changes in addition to HS boundary changes. This is more than just Langley/Herndon and WSHS/Lewis. The SB wants to reduce/eliminate split feeders, not create more through boundary changes. So it's going to come down to how ES boundaries are drawn and what HS they feed.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The only way to really fix under performing schools is to pool them with a much larger population. Like pooling the entire populations of Lewis SoCo and WS. Something like that. Moving 350 kids will do nothing.

The pro rezoning posts just keep getting crazier and crazier.

It’s not pro or anti rezoning. It’s naked realism. One of these is true:

1) FCPS’s projections on student enrollment by SY 2028-2029 are true. In that case, WSHS will be at 117% whereas South County will be at 86, Lewis will be at 74, Mount Vernon will be at 67, Annandale will be at 84. What’s the point of keeping all of these buildings which are all under capacity in the same region? And these aren’t small affluent schools either.

2) FCPS’s projections on student enrollment are wrong in which case WSHS will likely continue at their current enrollment, more or less, of 110%. Probably less, as student enrollment everywhere remains lower after COVID. However, even the 110% figure does not match with the “boots on the ground” observations of empty classrooms at WSHS.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The only way to really fix under performing schools is to pool them with a much larger population. Like pooling the entire populations of Lewis SoCo and WS. Something like that. Moving 350 kids will do nothing.

The pro rezoning posts just keep getting crazier and crazier.

It’s not pro or anti rezoning. It’s naked realism. One of these is true:

1) FCPS’s projections on student enrollment by SY 2028-2029 are true. In that case, WSHS will be at 117% whereas South County will be at 86, Lewis will be at 74, Mount Vernon will be at 67, Annandale will be at 84. What’s the point of keeping all of these buildings which are all under capacity in the same region? And these aren’t small affluent schools either.

2) FCPS’s projections on student enrollment are wrong in which case WSHS will likely continue at their current enrollment, more or less, of 110%. Probably less, as student enrollment everywhere remains lower after COVID. However, even the 110% figure does not match with the “boots on the ground” observations of empty classrooms at WSHS.

Or 3) 1 and 2 are not true. There is a good post about 20 pages back by a government budget analyst who provides analysis on Irving and WSHS numbers and artificial inflation, in which case WSHS will be at 97% in 28-29.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The only way to really fix under performing schools is to pool them with a much larger population. Like pooling the entire populations of Lewis SoCo and WS. Something like that. Moving 350 kids will do nothing.

The pro rezoning posts just keep getting crazier and crazier.

It’s not pro or anti rezoning. It’s naked realism. One of these is true:

1) FCPS’s projections on student enrollment by SY 2028-2029 are true. In that case, WSHS will be at 117% whereas South County will be at 86, Lewis will be at 74, Mount Vernon will be at 67, Annandale will be at 84. What’s the point of keeping all of these buildings which are all under capacity in the same region? And these aren’t small affluent schools either.

2) FCPS’s projections on student enrollment are wrong in which case WSHS will likely continue at their current enrollment, more or less, of 110%. Probably less, as student enrollment everywhere remains lower after COVID. However, even the 110% figure does not match with the “boots on the ground” observations of empty classrooms at WSHS.

The school board projections for WSHS are grossly inflated based on the actual enrollment of WSHS, Irving, and the feeder elementary schools.

Class of 2028 is smaller than the class of 2024 that just graduated.

Class of 2029 is smaller than the rising seniors, class of 2025.

Class of 2030 is significantly smaller than the 720 plus class of 2026.

WSHS will slowly shrink over the next 2 graduating classes, and drop by perhaps 100 students or more when class of 2026 graduates.

There is no hard data that backs the school board's estimated projections of WSHS growing by hundreds of students to almost 3000 students over the next 2 years.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:2003
Lee - 2092 students
Roughly 23% F/R lunch, 42% white, medium ESL rate (17.3%)

WS - 2259 students
Roughly 7% F/R lunch, 64% white, low ESL rate (7.5%)

2024
Lewis - 1675 students
Roughly 63% F/R lunch, 12% white, high ESL rate (30%)

WS - 2761 students
Roughly 17% F/R lunch, 48% white, low ESL rate (5%)

In 2003 Lee was middle of the road in FCPS. What happened?

IB put into Lee and several other schools

IB actually enabled easier transfer out with the liberal pupil placement policy

Immigrants concentrated in certain schools

2005 boundary change - removed hundreds of students from Lee just as it was getting expanded - some to South County, some to West Springfield; students that departed were on the wealthier end of the spectrum. FCPS knew this was the case

Pupil placement accelerated - FCPS refuses to budge on dropping IB and Lee

2015 boundary change - removed Daventry students - a relatively wealthy neighborhood

In the middle of all of this Great Schools came along and created winners and losers - English speaking Americans, particularly white, just stopped choosing houses in the Lee/Lewis boundary

That is how we got here. Notice the total number of students in 2003 at the two schools. Only different by 167 students. Now in 2024 - different by 1086 students.

Lewis is much smaller, much poorer, and has many more ESL students. The ESL rate at WS actually went down over the years.

The quality of the school (teachers, admin) is not necessarily different or subpar, but the demographics of the students is much different.

How should this be resolved? Long time homeowner wants to know.

If you sent the 230 Lewis students pupil placing to other high schools back to Lewis, Lewis would have over 1900 students, without rezoning.

Maybe. But this doesn’t do anything to alleviate the overcrowding at WS.

And until there is a good faith effort to make Lewis more attractive, parents in my community will continue to pupil place to higher rated schools.

WSHS doesn't need to alleviate any overcrowding.

They still have empty classrooms.

I have one kid at WSHS and one at Irving and have never heard them or any parent or teacher (of which I know quite a few) complain about overcrowding. I've heard people complain it's too competitive on sports teams, which is a symptom of such a big school, but I've never heard anyone wish there were fewer students at the school or that they would change our boundary. We are just going through a swell that I think will naturally correct itself. In the early 2000s, housing prices in 22152 were fairly reasonable and a lot of families or couples intending to have kids moved here. These were (for DC area) "middle class" families. Government jobs, couples with one parent staying at home, teachers, etc. But the people moving in now are not these families. Our housing prices are too high now. I really think the CIP projections are incorrect. There is no new development in West Springfield.

Very accurate observation.

After tge 2008 housing crisis, 22152 homes were snapped up by families with kids.

That is why the class of 2026 is so huge, nearly 150 more students than a typical WSHS high school class, and 2023, 2024, 2025 and 2027 are so big, roughly 75 to 100 more kids than a typical WSHS class.

They were all born between 2005 to 2010, when 22152 was one of the few affordable zip codes in FCPS for low to middle ranking military, GS10s, teachers, firefighters, mmid range office workers, and police officers.

None of those types of families, including enlisted military through captains, can afford to buy in 22152 any more, unless they luck into a hard to find townhouse.

Excellent point that illustrates the need for boundary changes. The new generation of the very same military and middle-GS employees that once were the core of solid middle-tier schools like WS can no longer afford to enjoy those supposed benefits that Fairfax County became famous for.

The only people who benefit from standing still are empty nesters who want their property sale to maximize in the next few years before retirement, or those with HS-aged (or soon-to-be) kids that will pass through the school system soon enough.

It's in the best interest of new federal employees and white-collar residents to support systemic changes that would ideally create satisfactory schools across FCPS. Many new hires, like me, are facing very limited options for a good balance of community and affordability in our living situation. It's easy to say make more sacrifices, live further out, but that's not feasible for most.

It is crazy that you came up with that argument based off my post.

I can see it. Makes sense.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The only way to really fix under performing schools is to pool them with a much larger population. Like pooling the entire populations of Lewis SoCo and WS. Something like that. Moving 350 kids will do nothing.

The pro rezoning posts just keep getting crazier and crazier.

It’s not pro or anti rezoning. It’s naked realism. One of these is true:

1) FCPS’s projections on student enrollment by SY 2028-2029 are true. In that case, WSHS will be at 117% whereas South County will be at 86, Lewis will be at 74, Mount Vernon will be at 67, Annandale will be at 84. What’s the point of keeping all of these buildings which are all under capacity in the same region? And these aren’t small affluent schools either.

2) FCPS’s projections on student enrollment are wrong in which case WSHS will likely continue at their current enrollment, more or less, of 110%. Probably less, as student enrollment everywhere remains lower after COVID. However, even the 110% figure does not match with the “boots on the ground” observations of empty classrooms at WSHS.

The school board projections for WSHS are grossly inflated based on the actual enrollment of WSHS, Irving, and the feeder elementary schools.

Class of 2028 is smaller than the class of 2024 that just graduated.

Class of 2029 is smaller than the rising seniors, class of 2025.

Class of 2030 is significantly smaller than the 720 plus class of 2026.

WSHS will slowly shrink over the next 2 graduating classes, and drop by perhaps 100 students or more when class of 2026 graduates.

There is no hard data that backs the school board's estimated projections of WSHS growing by hundreds of students to almost 3000 students over the next 2 years.

You have no hard data on the WSHS class of 2028 or later classes. You can make assumptions, just like FCPS, but until we see the fall enrollment numbers we won’t actually know the size of the class.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The only way to really fix under performing schools is to pool them with a much larger population. Like pooling the entire populations of Lewis SoCo and WS. Something like that. Moving 350 kids will do nothing.

The pro rezoning posts just keep getting crazier and crazier.

It’s not pro or anti rezoning. It’s naked realism. One of these is true:

1) FCPS’s projections on student enrollment by SY 2028-2029 are true. In that case, WSHS will be at 117% whereas South County will be at 86, Lewis will be at 74, Mount Vernon will be at 67, Annandale will be at 84. What’s the point of keeping all of these buildings which are all under capacity in the same region? And these aren’t small affluent schools either.

2) FCPS’s projections on student enrollment are wrong in which case WSHS will likely continue at their current enrollment, more or less, of 110%. Probably less, as student enrollment everywhere remains lower after COVID. However, even the 110% figure does not match with the “boots on the ground” observations of empty classrooms at WSHS.

Umm, your statement is not logic-ing.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The only way to really fix under performing schools is to pool them with a much larger population. Like pooling the entire populations of Lewis SoCo and WS. Something like that. Moving 350 kids will do nothing.

The pro rezoning posts just keep getting crazier and crazier.

It’s not pro or anti rezoning. It’s naked realism. One of these is true:

1) FCPS’s projections on student enrollment by SY 2028-2029 are true. In that case, WSHS will be at 117% whereas South County will be at 86, Lewis will be at 74, Mount Vernon will be at 67, Annandale will be at 84. What’s the point of keeping all of these buildings which are all under capacity in the same region? And these aren’t small affluent schools either.

2) FCPS’s projections on student enrollment are wrong in which case WSHS will likely continue at their current enrollment, more or less, of 110%. Probably less, as student enrollment everywhere remains lower after COVID. However, even the 110% figure does not match with the “boots on the ground” observations of empty classrooms at WSHS.

Umm, your statement is not logic-ing.

FCPS is using fishy numbers to come up with their projections to justify moving kids out of WSHS. That’s the whole point. WSHS is going to be the most over capacity school in all of FCPS by 2028, really? A school with zero new developments in its boundaries where prices are skyrocketing? Where student enrollment for the county as a whole is flat if not declining? Nope, no one is buying it.

And even IF what they are predicting comes to pass and WSHS is at 117% capacity in less than 5 years - they are also saying that many of the surrounding schools will be UNDER capacity to the point where it seems like a questionable financial decision to keep them all open. Those are the kind of enrollment deficits you can’t make up by moving an elementary school out of WSHS’s boundaries. They are the signs of an area of the county in decline.

[Anonymous]

If the SB is indeed planning to go nuclear and draw new boundaries for everyonr, then none of these numbers really even matter. Perhaps this is the best option afterall.

[Anonymous]

Why don’t we all calm down and stop speculating until we see what is actually being planned.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Why don’t we all calm down and stop speculating until we see what is actually being planned.

I.e., I’m a shill for the school board and they want you to be quiet until it is a done deal.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Why don’t we all calm down and stop speculating until we see what is actually being planned.

Because the discussion around the new boundary policy has made it clear that they are not going to take community opinion or involvement seriously. Once they come out with their "suggestion" I feel like it will be a done deal no matter what anyone in the community says. This feels like the chance to influence - while they are making decisions and deals behind closed doors.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Why don’t we all calm down and stop speculating until we see what is actually being planned.

Because the discussion around the new boundary policy has made it clear that they are not going to take community opinion or involvement seriously. Once they come out with their "suggestion" I feel like it will be a done deal no matter what anyone in the community says. This feels like the chance to influence - while they are making decisions and deals behind closed doors.

+1. It only serves the SB’s agenda to be silent now.