Wuhan virus (coronavirus) arrives in the USA

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Breakdown of Italy's 229 cases:

Hospitalized, not in ICU: 101

Hospitalized, in ICU: 27

Home isolation: 94

Dead: 7

Hospitalization is running 45%, which seems high, as does the ICU percentage.

Nearly 12% are in the ICU. Perhaps more tellingly as we do not know the true number of cases, over 20% of those who are hospitalized are in the ICU.

https://www.cnn.com/asia/live-news/coronavirus-outbreak-02-24-20-hnk-intl/index.html

229 out of how many tested? Who did they test? What is the criteria for hospitalizing? Criteria for ICU?

Regardless, 229 is a couple orders of magnitude off from being a valid sample size for Italy.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Im scared the US is not saying anything. I guess Trump thinks the stock market is “looking good”? What does that mean in the face of a huge sell-off? Are we going to start testing or keep sticking our heads in the sand and saying we are not affected?

Should I start driving to work rather than Metro?

When you look at the Spanish Flu, you can pretty much figure out that no matter what people did, it would run the same course. Many died but more survived. However, the market crash that followed, affected everyone for a very long time.
Panic does horrible things to the whole country. For now this virus is way less damaging, deadly or harmful then a flu so no reason to panic. Goverments should freeze everything until it levels. Would you like to see the markets crash over 3000 deaths in 8 billion population? Or 17 US cases Plus 20 imported from the cruise? This is your money too.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I think it’s important to remind ourselves that a lot of these community spreads have been linked to events and gatherings, not spread from random surfaces. Not saying it’s impossible but clearly it’s more contagious person to person than it is surface to person.

Moral...don’t belong to a cult.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I think it’s important to remind ourselves that a lot of these community spreads have been linked to events and gatherings, not spread from random surfaces. Not saying it’s impossible but clearly it’s more contagious person to person than it is surface to person.

Moral...don’t belong to a cult.

Or a ski chalet sect, or professional company business meeting cult?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I think it’s important to remind ourselves that a lot of these community spreads have been linked to events and gatherings, not spread from random surfaces. Not saying it’s impossible but clearly it’s more contagious person to person than it is surface to person.

Moral...don’t belong to a cult.

Unfortunately, yes several of the outbreaks are linked to religious gatherings. And the South Korea story sounds interesting...to say the least.

[Anonymous]

Clearly the gatherings seem ro play factor but also must be lenghtu, direct and close contact.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Im scared the US is not saying anything. I guess Trump thinks the stock market is “looking good”? What does that mean in the face of a huge sell-off? Are we going to start testing or keep sticking our heads in the sand and saying we are not affected?

Should I start driving to work rather than Metro?

When you look at the Spanish Flu, you can pretty much figure out that no matter what people did, it would run the same course. Many died but more survived. However, the market crash that followed, affected everyone for a very long time.
Panic does horrible things to the whole country. For now this virus is way less damaging, deadly or harmful then a flu so no reason to panic. Goverments should freeze everything until it levels. Would you like to see the markets crash over 3000 deaths in 8 billion population? Or 17 US cases Plus 20 imported from the cruise? This is your money too.

The market already has stops in it. The government doesn’t need to stop the market to prevent a crash. There’s a reason the market is going down, that’s because sales are expected to decline if people aren’t going about their lives like normal. In fact, no only should the market not have the government slowing it down, the market needs to fall if business revenue falls. All businesses should not be locked in overvalued. You’d have a frozen stock market with bankrupt companies that have high share values.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I think it’s important to remind ourselves that a lot of these community spreads have been linked to events and gatherings, not spread from random surfaces. Not saying it’s impossible but clearly it’s more contagious person to person than it is surface to person.

Moral...don’t belong to a cult.

Or a ski chalet sect, or professional company business meeting cult?

The ski chalet was a handful of people. And the cruise ship, of course, not a cult. The point, though? Don’t get so close to people. I have questions about that business meeting and what they were doing, considering plane travel doesn’t seem to be causing outbreaks, which seems odd...

(I’m being sarcastic. Kind of.)

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Breakdown of Italy's 229 cases:

Hospitalized, not in ICU: 101

Hospitalized, in ICU: 27

Home isolation: 94

Dead: 7

Hospitalization is running 45%, which seems high, as does the ICU percentage.

Nearly 12% are in the ICU. Perhaps more tellingly as we do not know the true number of cases, over 20% of those who are hospitalized are in the ICU.

https://www.cnn.com/asia/live-news/coronavirus-outbreak-02-24-20-hnk-intl/index.html

229 out of how many tested? Who did they test? What is the criteria for hospitalizing? Criteria for ICU?

Regardless, 229 is a couple orders of magnitude off from being a valid sample size for Italy.

We can guess hospital beds are at a premium, so requirements to be hospitalized would not be light.

Don't think we have a good fix on the number tested, but Italy is testing a lot. Still, they are probably sticking to contacts of cases and those showing symptoms and may be missing many.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Im scared the US is not saying anything. I guess Trump thinks the stock market is “looking good”? What does that mean in the face of a huge sell-off? Are we going to start testing or keep sticking our heads in the sand and saying we are not affected?

Should I start driving to work rather than Metro?

When you look at the Spanish Flu, you can pretty much figure out that no matter what people did, it would run the same course. Many died but more survived. However, the market crash that followed, affected everyone for a very long time.
Panic does horrible things to the whole country. For now this virus is way less damaging, deadly or harmful then a flu so no reason to panic. Goverments should freeze everything until it levels. Would you like to see the markets crash over 3000 deaths in 8 billion population? Or 17 US cases Plus 20 imported from the cruise? This is your money too.

The market already has stops in it. The government doesn’t need to stop the market to prevent a crash. There’s a reason the market is going down, that’s because sales are expected to decline if people aren’t going about their lives like normal. In fact, no only should the market not have the government slowing it down, the market needs to fall if business revenue falls. All businesses should not be locked in overvalued. You’d have a frozen stock market with bankrupt companies that have high share values.

Agreed, plus this is just what happens. Markets recover. That’s the nature of the world.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Im scared the US is not saying anything. I guess Trump thinks the stock market is “looking good”? What does that mean in the face of a huge sell-off? Are we going to start testing or keep sticking our heads in the sand and saying we are not affected?

Should I start driving to work rather than Metro?

When you look at the Spanish Flu, you can pretty much figure out that no matter what people did, it would run the same course. Many died but more survived. However, the market crash that followed, affected everyone for a very long time.
Panic does horrible things to the whole country. For now this virus is way less damaging, deadly or harmful then a flu so no reason to panic. Goverments should freeze everything until it levels. Would you like to see the markets crash over 3000 deaths in 8 billion population? Or 17 US cases Plus 20 imported from the cruise? This is your money too.

The market already has stops in it. The government doesn’t need to stop the market to prevent a crash. There’s a reason the market is going down, that’s because sales are expected to decline if people aren’t going about their lives like normal. In fact, no only should the market not have the government slowing it down, the market needs to fall if business revenue falls. All businesses should not be locked in overvalued. You’d have a frozen stock market with bankrupt companies that have high share values.

After dropping 1000 points today, the Dow is up 150 or so in overnight trading.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Im scared the US is not saying anything. I guess Trump thinks the stock market is “looking good”? What does that mean in the face of a huge sell-off? Are we going to start testing or keep sticking our heads in the sand and saying we are not affected?

Should I start driving to work rather than Metro?

When you look at the Spanish Flu, you can pretty much figure out that no matter what people did, it would run the same course. Many died but more survived. However, the market crash that followed, affected everyone for a very long time.
Panic does horrible things to the whole country. For now this virus is way less damaging, deadly or harmful then a flu so no reason to panic. Goverments should freeze everything until it levels. Would you like to see the markets crash over 3000 deaths in 8 billion population? Or 17 US cases Plus 20 imported from the cruise? This is your money too.

The market already has stops in it. The government doesn’t need to stop the market to prevent a crash. There’s a reason the market is going down, that’s because sales are expected to decline if people aren’t going about their lives like normal. In fact, no only should the market not have the government slowing it down, the market needs to fall if business revenue falls. All businesses should not be locked in overvalued. You’d have a frozen stock market with bankrupt companies that have high share values.

Sales are going down because many companies, like Apple, had to close plants which means they will miss projections.

[Anonymous]

If this hits the US, we are screwed given how much our health care costs are. Plus our hospitals are full of people with the flu.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Im scared the US is not saying anything. I guess Trump thinks the stock market is “looking good”? What does that mean in the face of a huge sell-off? Are we going to start testing or keep sticking our heads in the sand and saying we are not affected?

Should I start driving to work rather than Metro?

When you look at the Spanish Flu, you can pretty much figure out that no matter what people did, it would run the same course. Many died but more survived. However, the market crash that followed, affected everyone for a very long time.
Panic does horrible things to the whole country. For now this virus is way less damaging, deadly or harmful then a flu so no reason to panic. Goverments should freeze everything until it levels. Would you like to see the markets crash over 3000 deaths in 8 billion population? Or 17 US cases Plus 20 imported from the cruise? This is your money too.

The market already has stops in it. The government doesn’t need to stop the market to prevent a crash. There’s a reason the market is going down, that’s because sales are expected to decline if people aren’t going about their lives like normal. In fact, no only should the market not have the government slowing it down, the market needs to fall if business revenue falls. All businesses should not be locked in overvalued. You’d have a frozen stock market with bankrupt companies that have high share values.

Sales are going down because many companies, like Apple, had to close plants which means they will miss projections.

You’re acting like it’s all on the production side. China is a huge market. There is zero need to stop the market from falling. It should fall to match up with sales. It should not be locked in.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Breakdown of Italy's 229 cases:

Hospitalized, not in ICU: 101

Hospitalized, in ICU: 27

Home isolation: 94

Dead: 7

Hospitalization is running 45%, which seems high, as does the ICU percentage.

Nearly 12% are in the ICU. Perhaps more tellingly as we do not know the true number of cases, over 20% of those who are hospitalized are in the ICU.

https://www.cnn.com/asia/live-news/coronavirus-outbreak-02-24-20-hnk-intl/index.html

229 out of how many tested? Who did they test? What is the criteria for hospitalizing? Criteria for ICU?

Regardless, 229 is a couple orders of magnitude off from being a valid sample size for Italy.

We can guess hospital beds are at a premium, so requirements to be hospitalized would not be light.

Don't think we have a good fix on the number tested, but Italy is testing a lot. Still, they are probably sticking to contacts of cases and those showing symptoms and may be missing many.

So more guessing...