FCPS comprehensive boundary review

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I truly think this is the closest thing to a black swan event for NoVA since 2008, and expect to see house values drop by 20-30% as many foreclose and/or move away to more affordable areas. The unfortunate reality is that this area has thrived on the government teat and is now being cut off.

I think you would see a golden handcuff effect, people in this area will not trade off their $800-900k home at 3% for a $500k home outside of Fairfax with a similar payment and lesser schools/amenities. They might have to tighten their belts but will make ends meet. Maybe less disposable income for the double income families that become single income. Also means they wouldn't be doing vouchers and would be stuck with FCPS.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I get a sense some on the thread are counting on more fed layoffs and deportations.

I think it’s more of a suggestion that it would be sensible to pause this exercise until the impact of the Trump Administration’s plans to shrink the federal bureaucracy is better understood.

The Ds may control Fairfax but they don’t control the executive branch of the federal government, so their ability to forecast accurately right now is limited.

Even before this, their ability to forecast was questionable at best.

I have never lived in an area where they were able to consistently make decent predictions. There are too many variables.

They blatantly ignore housing developments that are days away from breaking ground. This isn’t your run-of-the-mill error, this is systemic ostrich-head-in-the-sand error.

If a development breaks ground, the impact should be reflected in the next Capital Improvement Program. That doesn't mean they'll get it right, just that they do apply their yield formula once the project is under construction.

So then they should only include one year projections in the CIP, not five years. If they project further out, the guesses will almost assuredly be underestimated.

The new development is only part of the picture when it comes to projections. Your caution could lead to even worse results, if it meant ignoring other expected growth unrelated to new development.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I get a sense some on the thread are counting on more fed layoffs and deportations.

I think it’s more of a suggestion that it would be sensible to pause this exercise until the impact of the Trump Administration’s plans to shrink the federal bureaucracy is better understood.

The Ds may control Fairfax but they don’t control the executive branch of the federal government, so their ability to forecast accurately right now is limited.

Even before this, their ability to forecast was questionable at best.

I have never lived in an area where they were able to consistently make decent predictions. There are too many variables.

They blatantly ignore housing developments that are days away from breaking ground. This isn’t your run-of-the-mill error, this is systemic ostrich-head-in-the-sand error.

If a development breaks ground, the impact should be reflected in the next Capital Improvement Program. That doesn't mean they'll get it right, just that they do apply their yield formula once the project is under construction.

So then they should only include one year projections in the CIP, not five years. If they project further out, the guesses will almost assuredly be underestimated.

The new development is only part of the picture when it comes to projections. Your caution could lead to even worse results, if it meant ignoring other expected growth unrelated to new development.

I’m saying that the poster who says is fine the way it is has it wrong. They should include residential development far along the development path even if it hasn’t broken ground. Give it a haircut, if you must, but it’s asinine and negligent to not include a development one day then book hundreds of kind the next when a shovel hits the ground.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I truly think this is the closest thing to a black swan event for NoVA since 2008, and expect to see house values drop by 20-30% as many foreclose and/or move away to more affordable areas. The unfortunate reality is that this area has thrived on the government teat and is now being cut off.

I think you would see a golden handcuff effect, people in this area will not trade off their $800-900k home at 3% for a $500k home outside of Fairfax with a similar payment and lesser schools/amenities. They might have to tighten their belts but will make ends meet. Maybe less disposable income for the double income families that become single income. Also means they wouldn't be doing vouchers and would be stuck with FCPS.

If you move out of the area entirely, you might be trading your middle class $700-$900k home for the same home in another state that only costs $500k. I don’t think that many people will choose to decamp entirely for, like, Columbus Ohio or Harrisburg PA or what have you, but some will if things keep getting worse for the government workforce, and it won’t be evenly concentrated around the county either. Not a lot of 2 fed households with school age kids in McLean compared to Burke.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I truly think this is the closest thing to a black swan event for NoVA since 2008, and expect to see house values drop by 20-30% as many foreclose and/or move away to more affordable areas. The unfortunate reality is that this area has thrived on the government teat and is now being cut off.

I think you would see a golden handcuff effect, people in this area will not trade off their $800-900k home at 3% for a $500k home outside of Fairfax with a similar payment and lesser schools/amenities. They might have to tighten their belts but will make ends meet. Maybe less disposable income for the double income families that become single income. Also means they wouldn't be doing vouchers and would be stuck with FCPS.

If you move out of the area entirely, you might be trading your middle class $700-$900k home for the same home in another state that only costs $500k. I don’t think that many people will choose to decamp entirely for, like, Columbus Ohio or Harrisburg PA or what have you, but some will if things keep getting worse for the government workforce, and it won’t be evenly concentrated around the county either. Not a lot of 2 fed households with school age kids in McLean compared to Burke.

There are plenty of two fed households in my neighborhood of McLean. Mostly, they have MS students and older.

[Anonymous]

SB needs to seize the moment and table the boundary study based on the increased risk and uncertainty regarding future enrollment as a result of a number of factors.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I truly think this is the closest thing to a black swan event for NoVA since 2008, and expect to see house values drop by 20-30% as many foreclose and/or move away to more affordable areas. The unfortunate reality is that this area has thrived on the government teat and is now being cut off.

I think you would see a golden handcuff effect, people in this area will not trade off their $800-900k home at 3% for a $500k home outside of Fairfax with a similar payment and lesser schools/amenities. They might have to tighten their belts but will make ends meet. Maybe less disposable income for the double income families that become single income. Also means they wouldn't be doing vouchers and would be stuck with FCPS.

If you move out of the area entirely, you might be trading your middle class $700-$900k home for the same home in another state that only costs $500k. I don’t think that many people will choose to decamp entirely for, like, Columbus Ohio or Harrisburg PA or what have you, but some will if things keep getting worse for the government workforce, and it won’t be evenly concentrated around the county either. Not a lot of 2 fed households with school age kids in McLean compared to Burke.

There are plenty of two fed households in my neighborhood of McLean. Mostly, they have MS students and older.

+1
Same in Great Falls (we are one). People who make these sweeping statements really have no clue.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:That may be true, but things are particularly up in the air at the moment. With enrollments already flat or declining, it's hard to see the urgency.

We are well past the urgency stage. Realignment should have happened years ago. Don't get your hopes up that they'll stop now.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:That may be true, but things are particularly up in the air at the moment. With enrollments already flat or declining, it's hard to see the urgency.

We are well past the urgency stage. Realignment should have happened years ago. Don't get your hopes up that they'll stop now.

Sounds like a lot of hyperbole. What’s the urgency?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I truly think this is the closest thing to a black swan event for NoVA since 2008, and expect to see house values drop by 20-30% as many foreclose and/or move away to more affordable areas. The unfortunate reality is that this area has thrived on the government teat and is now being cut off.

I think you would see a golden handcuff effect, people in this area will not trade off their $800-900k home at 3% for a $500k home outside of Fairfax with a similar payment and lesser schools/amenities. They might have to tighten their belts but will make ends meet. Maybe less disposable income for the double income families that become single income. Also means they wouldn't be doing vouchers and would be stuck with FCPS.

If you move out of the area entirely, you might be trading your middle class $700-$900k home for the same home in another state that only costs $500k. I don’t think that many people will choose to decamp entirely for, like, Columbus Ohio or Harrisburg PA or what have you, but some will if things keep getting worse for the government workforce, and it won’t be evenly concentrated around the county either. Not a lot of 2 fed households with school age kids in McLean compared to Burke.

There are plenty of two fed households in my neighborhood of McLean. Mostly, they have MS students and older.

+1
Same in Great Falls (we are one). People who make these sweeping statements really have no clue.

They’re just assuming that a 2 fed household couldn’t cover the housing costs in McLean or Great Falls.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:That may be true, but things are particularly up in the air at the moment. With enrollments already flat or declining, it's hard to see the urgency.

We are well past the urgency stage. Realignment should have happened years ago. Don't get your hopes up that they'll stop now.

Sounds like a lot of hyperbole. What’s the urgency?

+1. Notice she makes her claim with zero to back it up.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:That may be true, but things are particularly up in the air at the moment. With enrollments already flat or declining, it's hard to see the urgency.

We are well past the urgency stage. Realignment should have happened years ago. Don't get your hopes up that they'll stop now.

Sounds like a lot of hyperbole. What’s the urgency?

Let's see what happens to the population of Lewis and Herndon.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I truly think this is the closest thing to a black swan event for NoVA since 2008, and expect to see house values drop by 20-30% as many foreclose and/or move away to more affordable areas. The unfortunate reality is that this area has thrived on the government teat and is now being cut off.

I think you would see a golden handcuff effect, people in this area will not trade off their $800-900k home at 3% for a $500k home outside of Fairfax with a similar payment and lesser schools/amenities. They might have to tighten their belts but will make ends meet. Maybe less disposable income for the double income families that become single income. Also means they wouldn't be doing vouchers and would be stuck with FCPS.

If you move out of the area entirely, you might be trading your middle class $700-$900k home for the same home in another state that only costs $500k. I don’t think that many people will choose to decamp entirely for, like, Columbus Ohio or Harrisburg PA or what have you, but some will if things keep getting worse for the government workforce, and it won’t be evenly concentrated around the county either. Not a lot of 2 fed households with school age kids in McLean compared to Burke.

There are plenty of two fed households in my neighborhood of McLean. Mostly, they have MS students and older.

+1
Same in Great Falls (we are one). People who make these sweeping statements really have no clue.

They’re just assuming that a 2 fed household couldn’t cover the housing costs in McLean or Great Falls.

Some bought in the 2000’s. Some are living in parents’ house. Some had money before they started working a fed job. Most are in original and not new houses.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:That may be true, but things are particularly up in the air at the moment. With enrollments already flat or declining, it's hard to see the urgency.

We are well past the urgency stage. Realignment should have happened years ago. Don't get your hopes up that they'll stop now.

Sounds like a lot of hyperbole. What’s the urgency?

Let's see what happens to the population of Lewis and Herndon.

What happens if we just let them fail? Does the state step in? At some point you have to stop throwing good money after bad.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:That may be true, but things are particularly up in the air at the moment. With enrollments already flat or declining, it's hard to see the urgency.

We are well past the urgency stage. Realignment should have happened years ago. Don't get your hopes up that they'll stop now.

Sounds like a lot of hyperbole. What’s the urgency?

Let's see what happens to the population of Lewis and Herndon.

What happens if we just let them fail? Does the state step in? At some point you have to stop throwing good money after bad.

How about teaching the kids instead of hiding them with better performing kids?