Ukrainian victory over Russia is inevitable

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Ukraine 2022: pop 43.8M

Are you aware that more than 8 million people have left Ukraine in 2022?

As for the rest - time will tell.

You seem unaware that of the 8 million that left, several million have returned and more continue to return.

[Anonymous]

Poland tapped out, Slovakia looks to be tapping out, and now the UK seems to have bare cupboards:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/10/02/britain-run-out-of-arms-send-to-ukraine-says-military-chief/

Not looking good for Ukraine now. Should have sued for peace before the disastrous counter-offensive. They might have only lost the four referendum oblasts. Now I don't see how they keep anything east of the Dnieper.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Poland tapped out, Slovakia looks to be tapping out, and now the UK seems to have bare cupboards:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/10/02/britain-run-out-of-arms-send-to-ukraine-says-military-chief/

Not looking good for Ukraine now. Should have sued for peace before the disastrous counter-offensive. They might have only lost the four referendum oblasts. Now I don't see how they keep anything east of the Dnieper.

How's that? You think Russia has saved enough gas money to get to Kyiv this time? Seems highly unlikely.

[Anonymous]

Russia has been incapable of doing anything more than digging holes and hiding in them trying to desperately hold their ground for the last full year. Meanwhile their hold on Crimea is slipping and their economy is in shambles.

Sure the counteroffensive is not progressing as quickly as we had hoped, but real progress is being made.

Now is not the time to go wobbly. And it’s not time to change horses in midstream. The fate of the free world at least in Europe depends on Biden.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Russia has been incapable of doing anything more than digging holes and hiding in them trying to desperately hold their ground for the last full year. Meanwhile their hold on Crimea is slipping and their economy is in shambles.

Sure the counteroffensive is not progressing as quickly as we had hoped, but real progress is being made.

Now is not the time to go wobbly. And it’s not time to change horses in midstream. The fate of the free world at least in Europe depends on Biden.

Russia has already abandoned Crimea as a naval asset.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Poland tapped out, Slovakia looks to be tapping out, and now the UK seems to have bare cupboards:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/10/02/britain-run-out-of-arms-send-to-ukraine-says-military-chief/

Not looking good for Ukraine now. Should have sued for peace before the disastrous counter-offensive. They might have only lost the four referendum oblasts. Now I don't see how they keep anything east of the Dnieper.

Poland isn’t tapping out. They are continuing to purchase more current and next gen weapon systems for their own defense. They just are refusing to throw good money after bad wrt Ukraine.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Russia has been incapable of doing anything more than digging holes and hiding in them trying to desperately hold their ground for the last full year. Meanwhile their hold on Crimea is slipping and their economy is in shambles.

Sure the counteroffensive is not progressing as quickly as we had hoped, but real progress is being made.

Now is not the time to go wobbly. And it’s not time to change horses in midstream. The fate of the free world at least in Europe depends on Biden.

You do realize that Russia has gained net land since the counteroffensive started right? That's despite all the men and armor Ukraine threw at them.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Russia has been incapable of doing anything more than digging holes and hiding in them trying to desperately hold their ground for the last full year. Meanwhile their hold on Crimea is slipping and their economy is in shambles.

Sure the counteroffensive is not progressing as quickly as we had hoped, but real progress is being made.

Now is not the time to go wobbly. And it’s not time to change horses in midstream. The fate of the free world at least in Europe depends on Biden.

You do realize that Russia has gained net land since the counteroffensive started right? That's despite all the men and armor Ukraine threw at them.

This. Unfortunately this war will boil down to who can produce the most dumb artillery shells, and who can throw the most bodies to the front. Russia eventually "wins" on both those counts. I do hope the Pentagon is paying attention. All the high-priced wizardry in the world doesn't amount to squat if your opponent can lay down entire square kilometers of mines, and doesn't mind expending 100s of thousands of lives.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Russia has been incapable of doing anything more than digging holes and hiding in them trying to desperately hold their ground for the last full year. Meanwhile their hold on Crimea is slipping and their economy is in shambles.

Sure the counteroffensive is not progressing as quickly as we had hoped, but real progress is being made.

Now is not the time to go wobbly. And it’s not time to change horses in midstream. The fate of the free world at least in Europe depends on Biden.

You do realize that Russia has gained net land since the counteroffensive started right? That's despite all the men and armor Ukraine threw at them.

This. Unfortunately this war will boil down to who can produce the most dumb artillery shells, and who can throw the most bodies to the front. Russia eventually "wins" on both those counts. I do hope the Pentagon is paying attention. All the high-priced wizardry in the world doesn't amount to squat if your opponent can lay down entire square kilometers of mines, and doesn't mind expending 100s of thousands of lives.

The US Army largely abandoned large artillery formations and combat engineer sappers during GWOT. You are right that the Pentagon needs to pay attention.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Russia has been incapable of doing anything more than digging holes and hiding in them trying to desperately hold their ground for the last full year. Meanwhile their hold on Crimea is slipping and their economy is in shambles.

Sure the counteroffensive is not progressing as quickly as we had hoped, but real progress is being made.

Now is not the time to go wobbly. And it’s not time to change horses in midstream. The fate of the free world at least in Europe depends on Biden.

You do realize that Russia has gained net land since the counteroffensive started right? That's despite all the men and armor Ukraine threw at them.

This. Unfortunately this war will boil down to who can produce the most dumb artillery shells, and who can throw the most bodies to the front. Russia eventually "wins" on both those counts. I do hope the Pentagon is paying attention. All the high-priced wizardry in the world doesn't amount to squat if your opponent can lay down entire square kilometers of mines, and doesn't mind expending 100s of thousands of lives.

Disagree.

"There are no plans for an additional mobilization," Shoigu was shown telling top generals on state television. "The armed forces have the necessary number of military personnel to conduct the special military operation."
https://www.yahoo.com/news/russia-vows-no-mobilisation-335-101243890.html

"Secret spending to nearly double as Kremlin avoids scrutiny"
"Defense spending will comprise 6% of the country’s gross domestic product in 2024, up from 3.9% in 2023 and 2.7% in 2021"
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-09-22/russia-plans-huge-defense-spending-hike-in-2024-as-war-drags-on?embedded-checkout=true

"The Russian rouble weakened past the symbolic threshold of 100 to the dollar before recovering slightly in early trading as Moscow battles a shrinking current account surplus. The rouble’s last tumble into triple digits in August led the Bank of Russia to make an emergency 350-basis-point rate hike to 12pc and authorities discussed reintroducing controls to buttress the currency."
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/food-prices-fall-first-time-054127168.html

On one hand, Russia needs new troops and equipment to replenish the Front Lines. On the other hand, Russia is reaching the 3M "break the back of the Russian economy" limit and it's possible Shoigu knows he politically can't call up more troops given the poor performance of prior conscription efforts. So why did the Kremlin double the 'secret spending / military' budgets if the size of the military hasn't doubled? There are two ways this could be interpreted. One way is that this is merely the true inflation rate within Russia, plus losses suffered, and this is the compensatory rate to keep the front lines supplied. But I still personally believe Russia will utilize a good portion of this money to attempt to destabilize the US and influence the 2024 elections. However, the Russian Government has it's own set of issues brewing domestically.

"On the frontline, where we've been, we did not get deliveries of ammunition. We did not get water or food. The injured were not taken away: still now the dead are rotting,"
"We're given dreadful orders that are not even worth carrying out," he added. "We refuse to continue carrying out combat missions."
https://www.yahoo.com/news/theyre-just-meat-russia-deploys-050545051.html

"360 military personnel; 15 tanks; 8 armored combat vehicles; 40 artillery systems;"
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/10/3/7422398/

"a freight train hit a Strela-10 anti-aircraft missile system"
https://www.yahoo.com/news/train-hits-russian-air-defence-071400982.html
(how do you get hit by a train?)

"Russia accidentally exposed the locations of its secret bases and spy homes"
"it also pinpointed secret locations like an ammunition depot in Leningrad and undercover facilities run by the Federal Protective Service"
"the document even included the apartment numbers of two homes used by spies in Moscow"
"A list of residential addresses also revealed at least six apartment buildings in Moscow that contain homes sold or given to intelligence officers in the Foreign Intelligence Service"
"About 10 other entries in the document listed buildings in Moscow used by agents of the Federal Security Service, Russia's internal security and counterintelligence agency"
"Further entries also revealed dozens of undercover offices and facilities used by the Federal Protective Service"
"Facilities and safe houses in the Primorsky, Leningrad, St. Petersburg, and Bryansk regions were also on the list"
https://www.yahoo.com/news/russia-mistakenly-doxed-own-spies-091207193.html

The Russian losses are still in-line with daily counts (ex. still losing artillery and personnel in quantity, and surprised 15 tanks were taken out - that's enough for a counteroffensive spearhead?). A while back I mentioned that information leaks will be more and more common from Russia due to discontent and/or incompetence. Although some may argue there is no clear opposition to Putin, the counterargument is that the FSB is the Russian Government's sole hold on centralized power. Without the FSB in charge at the local level, centralized control breaks down. Putin's upcoming re-election is in March. My guess is Shoigu (maybe Solovyov too) could be replaced by January.

[Anonymous]

While our trolls talk about imaginings of "tapping out" Ukraine continues to advance, destroy Russian equipment, and reclaim their land from the Russian invaders.

[Anonymous]

"Russia is set to hold nationwide nuclear drills today (October 3) in preparation for world conflicts involving nuclear powers. "
"Vladimir Putin ordered the huge drills due to the "growing danger of armed conflicts including [with] nuclear-capable powers near Russia's borders", according to the Baza Telegram channel which has links to Russia's security service."
"This is the first time nationwide drills have been held, though there have been similar, smaller drills in specific regions. The exercise will enact martial law under the narrative of up to 70 percent of housing in the country being destroyed."
"It will also imagine there is possible widespread radioactive contamination after a general mobilization ended. Leaders across Russia, including "from civil defense leaders to heads of state corporations", will take part in the drill. The occupied Ukrainian regions of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson will be exempt. "
https://www.the-express.com/news/world-news/113729/russia-ukraine-war-nuclear-weapons-drills-test

[Anonymous]

Ukraine has widespread support in America still. Morons in congress are having a pissing contest as usual about who knows/cares about what but once they are done weapons and ammo will resume.

Really, Ukraine needs to be more worried about Taylor swift and Travis kelce stealing headlines here. Once she gets back on tour in Europe and stops showing up at football games Ukraine will be more important again.

[Anonymous]

Anyone in Poland, Finland or the Baltics who wants to stop supporting Ukraine is an utter and complete moron who needs to have a scarf stuffed into their mouth and be shoved into a locker until the war is over. The orcs make their intentions crystal clear. And everyone else in Europe and NATO needs to either be sitting up and paying attention, or be removed from whatever position of office or authority they have.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Anyone in Poland, Finland or the Baltics who wants to stop supporting Ukraine is an utter and complete moron who needs to have a scarf stuffed into their mouth and be shoved into a locker until the war is over. The orcs make their intentions crystal clear. And everyone else in Europe and NATO needs to either be sitting up and paying attention, or be removed from whatever position of office or authority they have.

I think the republicans will surrender to Putin. After that China will move in and take what they want from the US.