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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]Russia has been incapable of doing anything more than digging holes and hiding in them trying to desperately hold their ground for the last full year. Meanwhile their hold on Crimea is slipping and their economy is in shambles.

Sure the counteroffensive is not progressing as quickly as we had hoped, but real progress is being made.

Now is not the time to go wobbly. And it’s not time to change horses in midstream. The fate of the free world at least in Europe depends on Biden.[/quote]

You do realize that Russia has gained net land since the counteroffensive started right? That's despite all the men and armor Ukraine threw at them. [/quote]

This.  Unfortunately this war will boil down to who can produce the most dumb artillery shells, and who can throw the most bodies to the front.  Russia eventually "wins" on both those counts.   I do hope the Pentagon is paying attention.  All the high-priced wizardry in the world doesn't amount to squat if your opponent can lay down entire square kilometers of mines, and doesn't mind expending 100s of thousands of lives.[/quote]

Disagree.

"There are no plans for an additional mobilization," Shoigu was shown telling top generals on state television. "The armed forces have the necessary number of military personnel to conduct the special military operation."
https://www.yahoo.com/news/russia-vows-no-mobilisation-335-101243890.html

"Secret spending to nearly double as Kremlin avoids scrutiny"
"Defense spending will comprise 6% of the country’s gross domestic product in 2024, up from 3.9% in 2023 and 2.7% in 2021"
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-09-22/russia-plans-huge-defense-spending-hike-in-2024-as-war-drags-on?embedded-checkout=true

"The Russian rouble weakened past the symbolic threshold of 100 to the dollar before recovering slightly in early trading as Moscow battles a shrinking current account surplus.  The rouble’s last tumble into triple digits in August led the Bank of Russia to make an emergency 350-basis-point rate hike to 12pc and authorities discussed reintroducing controls to buttress the currency."
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/food-prices-fall-first-time-054127168.html

On one hand, Russia needs new troops and equipment to replenish the Front Lines.  On the other hand, Russia is reaching the 3M "break the back of the Russian economy" limit and it's possible Shoigu knows he politically can't call up more troops given the poor performance of prior conscription efforts.  So why did the Kremlin double the 'secret spending / military' budgets if the size of the military hasn't doubled?  There are two ways this could be interpreted.  One way is that this is merely the true inflation rate within Russia, plus losses suffered, and this is the compensatory rate to keep the front lines supplied.  But I still personally believe Russia will utilize a good portion of this money to attempt to destabilize the US and influence the 2024 elections.  However, the Russian Government has it's own set of issues brewing domestically.

"On the frontline, where we've been, we did not get deliveries of ammunition. We did not get water or food. The injured were not taken away: still now the dead are rotting," 
"We're given dreadful orders that are not even worth carrying out," he added. "We refuse to continue carrying out combat missions."
https://www.yahoo.com/news/theyre-just-meat-russia-deploys-050545051.html

"360 military personnel; 15 tanks; 8 armored combat vehicles; 40 artillery systems;"
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/10/3/7422398/

"a freight train hit a Strela-10 anti-aircraft missile system"
https://www.yahoo.com/news/train-hits-russian-air-defence-071400982.html
(how do you get hit by a train?)

"Russia accidentally exposed the locations of its secret bases and spy homes"
"it also pinpointed secret locations like an ammunition depot in Leningrad and undercover facilities run by the Federal Protective Service"
"the document even included the apartment numbers of two homes used by spies in Moscow"
"A list of residential addresses also revealed at least six apartment buildings in Moscow that contain homes sold or given to intelligence officers in the Foreign Intelligence Service"
"About 10 other entries in the document listed buildings in Moscow used by agents of the Federal Security Service, Russia's internal security and counterintelligence agency"
"Further entries also revealed dozens of undercover offices and facilities used by the Federal Protective Service"
"Facilities and safe houses in the Primorsky, Leningrad, St. Petersburg, and Bryansk regions were also on the list"
https://www.yahoo.com/news/russia-mistakenly-doxed-own-spies-091207193.html

The Russian losses are still in-line with daily counts (ex. still losing artillery and personnel in quantity, and surprised 15 tanks were taken out - that's enough for a counteroffensive spearhead?).  A while back I mentioned that information leaks will be more and more common from Russia due to discontent and/or incompetence.  Although some may argue there is no clear opposition to Putin, the counterargument is that the FSB is the Russian Government's sole hold on centralized power.  Without the FSB in charge at the local level, centralized control breaks down.  Putin's upcoming re-election is in March.  My guess is Shoigu (maybe Solovyov too) could be replaced by January.[/quote]

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