FCPS comprehensive boundary review

Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:Foresee anything happening in Woodson pyramid?


Board Member Dunne said at the last work session that every pyramid will be affected, and the consultant agreed.

I don’t have any specifics or guesses for Woodson though.
Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:Aside from the garden apartments, a large portion of that Timberlane pyramid are tear-downs with large SFH. High property values being so close to FCC. I do not think those people would be happy moving their kids to Falls Church High School.


I’m actually pretty shocked that there isn’t more concern in that attendance island. Seems high on the chopping block

Is that just speculation on the part of DCUM or grounded in anything the school board has revealed?


DP. Obviously everything is speculation because nothing has been formally revealed. That hasn't stopped Langley and West Springfield parents from speculating as to whether areas zoned for those schools may be redistricted to Herndon and Lewis, respectfully.

With respect to the Timber Lane island, I'd say the main reasons why there isn't "more concern."

1. The Timber Lane island accounts from over half the FARMS population at Longfellow and McLean. Some don't believe the School Board would eliminate that diversity from Longfellow/McLean; rather, they believe if there's going to be another boundary change affecting Longfellow/McLean (the boundaries were just adjusted in 2021), it would be to move the Spring Hill attendance island to Cooper/Langley instead.

2. Timber Lane is a Title I school, so parents who are fine sending their kids to Timber Lane are more likely to be fine sending their kids to Jackson/Falls Church. Some might even prefer it since Falls Church will have been renovated, while McLean will have to wait for a new queue before its next renovation. In addition, some Timber Lane families sense that the rest of McLean sees them as the "poor kids," even when the single-family houses zoned to Timber Lane are in the $800K-$2M range. This is more of an issue at Longfellow, when kids from the different ES feeders are first coming together, than at McLean, but I've heard it can be tiresome.

3. Longfellow is not overcrowded, and the overcrowding at McLean is starting to abate. The freshman class this year is the smallest it's been for over five years. While there could be more kids from additional development closer to McLean (in Tysons, McLean, and near the WFC Metro), larger demographic trends will also kick in, which could mean fewer students. Is this really the time to change boundaries in that pyramid again, after the MS/HS boundaries were revised in 2021 and many of the ES boundaries were changed last year?
Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:Foresee anything happening in Woodson pyramid?


Mantua is probably safe since it’s so close to Woodson.
Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:Foresee anything happening in Woodson pyramid?


Board Member Dunne said at the last work session that every pyramid will be affected, and the consultant agreed.

I don’t have any specifics or guesses for Woodson though.


Woodson draws from two schools that are split feeders - Little Run and Oak View. In addition, Olde Creek, which feeds to Woodson, has an attendance island closer to Laurel Ridge (in the Robinson pyramid) than to Olde Creek. In theory, these are the types of situations they plan to address.

Apart from that, the AAP center at Frost gets kids from the Annandale pyramid, so if they move those kids back to Poe it could impact Frost.
Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:Foresee anything happening in Woodson pyramid?


Mantua is probably safe since it’s so close to Woodson.


I believe the apartments right across the street from Woodson may be zoned for Fairfax HS, and Fairfax Villa ES sure looks like an attendance island that should have been in FHS.

FHS pyramid has dual superintendent though, Dr Reid and the Ffx City superintendent so maybe they don't touch it and instead ship Wakefield Forest and Canterbury Woods off to Annandale instead? Pure speculation
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Anonymous wrote:Saw this linked in the weekly newsletter. Looks like draft scenarios will be out in the April/May timeframe.

https://go.boarddocs.com/vsba/fairfax/Board.nsf/files/D9UJD64C86AD/$file/FCPS%20Project%20Planning%20Presentation_FINAL%2010-08-24.pdf


Just took a look at this. It looks like with the boundary scenario tool they are using when they shift boundaries it reports potential enrollment, FARMS %, special ed %, race, and home language (Slide 23). If they are looking for socioeconomic rebalancing, this tool will do it for them.



You do understand that data scientists can customize tools and dashboards to address whatever concerns an individual school board has, right? They're not going to use the same exact tool they used for Omaha in Fairfax County.


DP. The consultants were quite clear they’d be using the same software tool, developed by another company, that they’ve used on prior engagements. Whether they deploy the tool differently or focus on different outputs is a separate question.


They also agreed with Dunne that this will affect virtually every pyramid.


Which is why I don't expect it to pass. Every board member voting yes is willingly giving up any future in politics. Traditionally, the school board is a stepping stone and the members have made decisions with that in mind


If that were the case, then they never would have started down this road. I don't think they're collectively smart enough to understand the significant damage they're doing to their political aspirations. Parents won't forget this.


It’s also possible you’re exaggerating the political fallout or that fewer of the current SB members have political ambitions than their predecessors.


Lets look at Dunne. He's young and seems ambitions. The biggest issue in his district is MVHS. Using a school in Ft Hunt to fix that issue creates a neighborhood of voters angry about their kids' education and their property values. By moving any one of those schools to MVHS, he's also made West Potomac (already at 40% FARMS) that much worse and angered other voters. Since attendance islands seem to be something that the review is supposed to fix, what are the odds that FHES loses their island?


OK, let’s look at Dunne. He’s a Democrat in one of the most Democratic districts in a Democratic county. He spends some time on the School Board, and increases his name recognition.

Let’s also assume, just for the sake of argument, that as part of this boundary review the Fort Hunt attendance island goes away and FHES gets moved to MVHS. You have some people at FHES happy that the school is wealthier and some people at MVHS happier that FCPS has stopped treating it like a pariah and is willing to redistrict kids there. Conversely, you have some other people unhappy about getting moved to MVHS and a whole bunch of other people indifferent because none of this affects them directly.

So if Storck were to step down from the BOS and Dunne were to run he still gets the benefits of name recognition even if there are some PO’d parents. It doesn’t seem like a political career-killer by any stretch.


DP. I guess we’ll find out. The party isn’t going to be too happy when this ends up costing them the house of delegates, the state senate, or the governorship. Could see the party taking it out directly on those who caused the margins to move enough to allow the flip.

Also, don’t forget intensity. The families who see a slight change in farms at their schools will largely be indifferent. Directly impacted families will be much more intense in their hatred.


Yet a different poster. As far as I can tell, it's the non-parent aging population who drives election results in Fairfax County. 50+ people who fondly remember FCPS vote straight blue ballot (for a good chunk of the county, there are exceptions) no matter what.

This won't change a thing for those people. They won't care.


These changes will significantly impact housing values. They should care.


What about the people whose values might get a boost? I'm not saying the SB should try to boost their values, but only that there are two sides to an equation.


Good point and sparked my curiosity.

I wonder how many boundary changes would actually lower home values for the areas being transferred? Langley to Herndon, probably lower values. McLean to Falls Church (where my family goes and loves), probably lower values. What other (assumed to be in play) changes would lower home values? To be transparent, I am not sure this is a compelling argument for not making a change that addresses attendance issues, but I agree it might generate support/opposition from the households without school age kids.


Any school into Lewis, Justice, or Mt Vernon would lower values


Aren’t the Justice SFH neighborhoods hidden gems (both literally and figuratively)? But that school is at capacity with its new addition I think. So probably no redistricting there.

The brand new Falls Church HS facility should boost some home values once it’s completed, but I think the added capacity there simply addresses the current boundaries and there aren’t any expectations to shift neighborhoods into Falls Church.


There are some very nice single-family neighborhoods zoned to Justice. Most of the kids come from aging garden apartments and other areas that aren’t so nice.

They are expanding Justice to 2500 but meanwhile Ricardy Anderson is insisting that they downsize Glasgow MS, the 6-8 MS feeder to Justice. So some areas may get moved to Holmes/Annandale or Poe/Falls Church. If that leaves Justice with empty seats that is apparently OK.

As for Falls Church, with its expansion they may move the Timber Lane attendance island at Longfellow/McLean to Jackson/Falls Church. That would also eliminate the split feeder at that school.


This is why the boundary consultants need to consult with the facilities planners and work together. Otherwise the money spent on expensive renovations will be all for naught.

Maybe they need to expand the pyramid elementary schools so that grade 6 can return, and transform Glasgow back into an intermediate school. That way you shrink Glasgow and keep the Justice addition fully utilized.


The student transfer dashboard indicates that, in 2023-24, Glasgow had 97 transfers from Holmes and 27 from Poe, most presumably for AAP. Getting rid of the AAP center at Glasgow and keeping the AAP kids at their base schools would immediately appear to reduce the enrollment by roughly 125 kids. And this wouldn't require any change to the Justice boundaries, either. But Ricardy Anderson was very insistent on a boundary study and pushing Reid to say they'd look at making all the middle schools 6-8 schools, which seems logistically next to impossible.
Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:Foresee anything happening in Woodson pyramid?


Mantua is probably safe since it’s so close to Woodson.


I believe the apartments right across the street from Woodson may be zoned for Fairfax HS, and Fairfax Villa ES sure looks like an attendance island that should have been in FHS.

FHS pyramid has dual superintendent though, Dr Reid and the Ffx City superintendent so maybe they don't touch it and instead ship Wakefield Forest and Canterbury Woods off to Annandale instead? Pure speculation


If those apartments are in Fairfax City, they have to attend Fairfax City schools, including Fairfax HS, by law.

Fairfax Villa ES is not an attendance island. It used to go to Fairfax, but at some point the City of Fairfax asked FCPS to reduce the number of county students at Fairfax HS and Fairfax Villa got moved to Frost/Woodson. The moves created an attendance island zoned to Fairfax, but Woodson doesn't have an attendance island.
Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:Foresee anything happening in Woodson pyramid?


FWIW in FCPS’s capacity projections for 2028-29 on the capacity dashboard, the only HS’s that are projected to be “in the red” and significantly over capacity are Woodson and WSHS.
Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:Foresee anything happening in Woodson pyramid?


FWIW in FCPS’s capacity projections for 2028-29 on the capacity dashboard, the only HS’s that are projected to be “in the red” and significantly over capacity are Woodson and WSHS.


Can you show us where to find that dashboard please?
Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:Foresee anything happening in Woodson pyramid?


FWIW in FCPS’s capacity projections for 2028-29 on the capacity dashboard, the only HS’s that are projected to be “in the red” and significantly over capacity are Woodson and WSHS.


Keep in mind that these projections include modular seats (but not trailers) when calculating a school's capacity. There's been some discussion as to whether they should try and get kids out of modulars, although they really haven't asked people at schools with modulars how they feel.
Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:Foresee anything happening in Woodson pyramid?


FWIW in FCPS’s capacity projections for 2028-29 on the capacity dashboard, the only HS’s that are projected to be “in the red” and significantly over capacity are Woodson and WSHS.


Can you show us where to find that dashboard please?


https://www.fcps.edu/facilities-planning-future/facilities-and-membership-dashboards
Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:Foresee anything happening in Woodson pyramid?


FWIW in FCPS’s capacity projections for 2028-29 on the capacity dashboard, the only HS’s that are projected to be “in the red” and significantly over capacity are Woodson and WSHS.


Can you show us where to find that dashboard please?


It’s a little convoluted but hopefully these instructions make sense.

1) go here: https://www.fcps.edu/facilities-planning-future/facilities-and-membership-dashboards and tap on the “Capacity overview …” link

2) tap on capacity utilization maps

3) change school level to HS

4) scroll down on the page until you see the second map for 28-29 projected capacity (it is my understanding this is the projection given the current maps with no changes/redistricting)

WSHS they are projecting at 117% and Woodson at 108%. The yellows are around 100% plus or minus a few and the blue are under capacity.
Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:Foresee anything happening in Woodson pyramid?


Mantua is probably safe since it’s so close to Woodson.


I believe the apartments right across the street from Woodson may be zoned for Fairfax HS, and Fairfax Villa ES sure looks like an attendance island that should have been in FHS.

FHS pyramid has dual superintendent though, Dr Reid and the Ffx City superintendent so maybe they don't touch it and instead ship Wakefield Forest and Canterbury Woods off to Annandale instead? Pure speculation


Fairfax HS is its own city, so none of those schools should be touched, and no other schools should be rezoned into Fairfax HS.
Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:Foresee anything happening in Woodson pyramid?


FWIW in FCPS’s capacity projections for 2028-29 on the capacity dashboard, the only HS’s that are projected to be “in the red” and significantly over capacity are Woodson and WSHS.


Keep in mind that these projections include modular seats (but not trailers) when calculating a school's capacity. There's been some discussion as to whether they should try and get kids out of modulars, although they really haven't asked people at schools with modulars how they feel.


West Springfield HS has zero modulars and empty classroom space.

The projections for WSHS are wildly inaccurate and inflated.
Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:Foresee anything happening in Woodson pyramid?


FWIW in FCPS’s capacity projections for 2028-29 on the capacity dashboard, the only HS’s that are projected to be “in the red” and significantly over capacity are Woodson and WSHS.


Can you show us where to find that dashboard please?


It’s a little convoluted but hopefully these instructions make sense.

1) go here: https://www.fcps.edu/facilities-planning-future/facilities-and-membership-dashboards and tap on the “Capacity overview …” link

2) tap on capacity utilization maps

3) change school level to HS

4) scroll down on the page until you see the second map for 28-29 projected capacity (it is my understanding this is the projection given the current maps with no changes/redistricting)

WSHS they are projecting at 117% and Woodson at 108%. The yellows are around 100% plus or minus a few and the blue are under capacity.


WSHS is using inaccurate inflated data.
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