FCPS comprehensive boundary review

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Home values will still remain high for kids zoned for Hunt Valley if moved to Lewis. If anything, it might pull more enlisted families in.

Either you have no idea how supply and demand works or you are intentionally being very liberal with “still remain high.” Like, they could drop 10-20% and “still remain high”?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Home values will still remain high for kids zoned for Hunt Valley if moved to Lewis. If anything, it might pull more enlisted families in.

Ok Hunt Valley to Lewis poster, if you’re so knowledgeable about the situation you would know they are trying to DECREASE split feeders not create new ones. Like 3 neighborhoods were split feeders and that ended in 2005-2006ish. They went to HV and Lee/Lewis at that time. However with the opening of South County, which took kids mostly from Hayfield’s attendance area and some from Lake Braddock, those neighborhoods were originally set to be moved to Lake Braddock as LB had lost some kids to SC. However the neighborhoods complained about the length of the commute to LB and instead, the SB took the opportunity to fix the split feeder and send them all to WSHS. You can see the remnant of this decision on the attendance maps where the neighborhood immediately to their north/northwest is an attendance island zoned for Sangster and LB.

They could not go to (then) South County secondary, now SC MS/HS as it was at capacity when it opened. They also couldn’t go to the much closer Newington Forest ES, which had not yet been expanded or renovated at that time. Now, however, there is room for at least some of them at Newington Forest and there is certainly room at South County. The bus stop for some of those kids is at the corner of Newington Forest and Tyrolean Way. They could easily walk to NF from that bus stop, and they are also marginally closer to SC than they are to WSHS. Thats going to be where they get kids out of WSHS and HV. They will probably also get rid of that attendance island for Sangster. That will give some room to move kids around in that area and relieve Orange Hunt a bit, since those schools are all very physically close to one another.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

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Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Saw this linked in the weekly newsletter. Looks like draft scenarios will be out in the April/May timeframe.

https://go.boarddocs.com/vsba/fairfax/Board.nsf/files/D9UJD64C86AD/$file/FCPS%20Project%20Planning%20Presentation_FINAL%2010-08-24.pdf

Just took a look at this. It looks like with the boundary scenario tool they are using when they shift boundaries it reports potential enrollment, FARMS %, special ed %, race, and home language (Slide 23). If they are looking for socioeconomic rebalancing, this tool will do it for them.

You do understand that data scientists can customize tools and dashboards to address whatever concerns an individual school board has, right? They're not going to use the same exact tool they used for Omaha in Fairfax County.

DP. The consultants were quite clear they’d be using the same software tool, developed by another company, that they’ve used on prior engagements. Whether they deploy the tool differently or focus on different outputs is a separate question.

They also agreed with Dunne that this will affect virtually every pyramid.

Which is why I don't expect it to pass. Every board member voting yes is willingly giving up any future in politics. Traditionally, the school board is a stepping stone and the members have made decisions with that in mind

If that were the case, then they never would have started down this road. I don't think they're collectively smart enough to understand the significant damage they're doing to their political aspirations. Parents won't forget this.

It’s also possible you’re exaggerating the political fallout or that fewer of the current SB members have political ambitions than their predecessors.

Lets look at Dunne. He's young and seems ambitions. The biggest issue in his district is MVHS. Using a school in Ft Hunt to fix that issue creates a neighborhood of voters angry about their kids' education and their property values. By moving any one of those schools to MVHS, he's also made West Potomac (already at 40% FARMS) that much worse and angered other voters. Since attendance islands seem to be something that the review is supposed to fix, what are the odds that FHES loses their island?

OK, let’s look at Dunne. He’s a Democrat in one of the most Democratic districts in a Democratic county. He spends some time on the School Board, and increases his name recognition.

Let’s also assume, just for the sake of argument, that as part of this boundary review the Fort Hunt attendance island goes away and FHES gets moved to MVHS. You have some people at FHES happy that the school is wealthier and some people at MVHS happier that FCPS has stopped treating it like a pariah and is willing to redistrict kids there. Conversely, you have some other people unhappy about getting moved to MVHS and a whole bunch of other people indifferent because none of this affects them directly.

So if Storck were to step down from the BOS and Dunne were to run he still gets the benefits of name recognition even if there are some PO’d parents. It doesn’t seem like a political career-killer by any stretch.

DP. I guess we’ll find out. The party isn’t going to be too happy when this ends up costing them the house of delegates, the state senate, or the governorship. Could see the party taking it out directly on those who caused the margins to move enough to allow the flip.

Also, don’t forget intensity. The families who see a slight change in farms at their schools will largely be indifferent. Directly impacted families will be much more intense in their hatred.

Yet a different poster. As far as I can tell, it's the non-parent aging population who drives election results in Fairfax County. 50+ people who fondly remember FCPS vote straight blue ballot (for a good chunk of the county, there are exceptions) no matter what.

This won't change a thing for those people. They won't care.

These changes will significantly impact housing values. They should care.

What about the people whose values might get a boost? I'm not saying the SB should try to boost their values, but only that there are two sides to an equation.

Good point and sparked my curiosity.

I wonder how many boundary changes would actually lower home values for the areas being transferred? Langley to Herndon, probably lower values. McLean to Falls Church (where my family goes and loves), probably lower values. What other (assumed to be in play) changes would lower home values? To be transparent, I am not sure this is a compelling argument for not making a change that addresses attendance issues, but I agree it might generate support/opposition from the households without school age kids.

Any school into Lewis, Justice, or Mt Vernon would lower values

Aren’t the Justice SFH neighborhoods hidden gems (both literally and figuratively)? But that school is at capacity with its new addition I think. So probably no redistricting there.

The brand new Falls Church HS facility should boost some home values once it’s completed, but I think the added capacity there simply addresses the current boundaries and there aren’t any expectations to shift neighborhoods into Falls Church.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Saw this linked in the weekly newsletter. Looks like draft scenarios will be out in the April/May timeframe.

https://go.boarddocs.com/vsba/fairfax/Board.nsf/files/D9UJD64C86AD/$file/FCPS%20Project%20Planning%20Presentation_FINAL%2010-08-24.pdf

Just took a look at this. It looks like with the boundary scenario tool they are using when they shift boundaries it reports potential enrollment, FARMS %, special ed %, race, and home language (Slide 23). If they are looking for socioeconomic rebalancing, this tool will do it for them.

You do understand that data scientists can customize tools and dashboards to address whatever concerns an individual school board has, right? They're not going to use the same exact tool they used for Omaha in Fairfax County.

DP. The consultants were quite clear they’d be using the same software tool, developed by another company, that they’ve used on prior engagements. Whether they deploy the tool differently or focus on different outputs is a separate question.

They also agreed with Dunne that this will affect virtually every pyramid.

Which is why I don't expect it to pass. Every board member voting yes is willingly giving up any future in politics. Traditionally, the school board is a stepping stone and the members have made decisions with that in mind

If that were the case, then they never would have started down this road. I don't think they're collectively smart enough to understand the significant damage they're doing to their political aspirations. Parents won't forget this.

It’s also possible you’re exaggerating the political fallout or that fewer of the current SB members have political ambitions than their predecessors.

Lets look at Dunne. He's young and seems ambitions. The biggest issue in his district is MVHS. Using a school in Ft Hunt to fix that issue creates a neighborhood of voters angry about their kids' education and their property values. By moving any one of those schools to MVHS, he's also made West Potomac (already at 40% FARMS) that much worse and angered other voters. Since attendance islands seem to be something that the review is supposed to fix, what are the odds that FHES loses their island?

OK, let’s look at Dunne. He’s a Democrat in one of the most Democratic districts in a Democratic county. He spends some time on the School Board, and increases his name recognition.

Let’s also assume, just for the sake of argument, that as part of this boundary review the Fort Hunt attendance island goes away and FHES gets moved to MVHS. You have some people at FHES happy that the school is wealthier and some people at MVHS happier that FCPS has stopped treating it like a pariah and is willing to redistrict kids there. Conversely, you have some other people unhappy about getting moved to MVHS and a whole bunch of other people indifferent because none of this affects them directly.

So if Storck were to step down from the BOS and Dunne were to run he still gets the benefits of name recognition even if there are some PO’d parents. It doesn’t seem like a political career-killer by any stretch.

DP. I guess we’ll find out. The party isn’t going to be too happy when this ends up costing them the house of delegates, the state senate, or the governorship. Could see the party taking it out directly on those who caused the margins to move enough to allow the flip.

Also, don’t forget intensity. The families who see a slight change in farms at their schools will largely be indifferent. Directly impacted families will be much more intense in their hatred.

Yet a different poster. As far as I can tell, it's the non-parent aging population who drives election results in Fairfax County. 50+ people who fondly remember FCPS vote straight blue ballot (for a good chunk of the county, there are exceptions) no matter what.

This won't change a thing for those people. They won't care.

These changes will significantly impact housing values. They should care.

What about the people whose values might get a boost? I'm not saying the SB should try to boost their values, but only that there are two sides to an equation.

Good point and sparked my curiosity.

I wonder how many boundary changes would actually lower home values for the areas being transferred? Langley to Herndon, probably lower values. McLean to Falls Church (where my family goes and loves), probably lower values. What other (assumed to be in play) changes would lower home values? To be transparent, I am not sure this is a compelling argument for not making a change that addresses attendance issues, but I agree it might generate support/opposition from the households without school age kids.

Any school into Lewis, Justice, or Mt Vernon would lower values

Aren’t the Justice SFH neighborhoods hidden gems (both literally and figuratively)? But that school is at capacity with its new addition I think. So probably no redistricting there.

The brand new Falls Church HS facility should boost some home values once it’s completed, but I think the added capacity there simply addresses the current boundaries and there aren’t any expectations to shift neighborhoods into Falls Church.

Yes. It is lovely. I wish I could have afforded it.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Saw this linked in the weekly newsletter. Looks like draft scenarios will be out in the April/May timeframe.

https://go.boarddocs.com/vsba/fairfax/Board.nsf/files/D9UJD64C86AD/$file/FCPS%20Project%20Planning%20Presentation_FINAL%2010-08-24.pdf

Just took a look at this. It looks like with the boundary scenario tool they are using when they shift boundaries it reports potential enrollment, FARMS %, special ed %, race, and home language (Slide 23). If they are looking for socioeconomic rebalancing, this tool will do it for them.

You do understand that data scientists can customize tools and dashboards to address whatever concerns an individual school board has, right? They're not going to use the same exact tool they used for Omaha in Fairfax County.

DP. The consultants were quite clear they’d be using the same software tool, developed by another company, that they’ve used on prior engagements. Whether they deploy the tool differently or focus on different outputs is a separate question.

They also agreed with Dunne that this will affect virtually every pyramid.

Which is why I don't expect it to pass. Every board member voting yes is willingly giving up any future in politics. Traditionally, the school board is a stepping stone and the members have made decisions with that in mind

If that were the case, then they never would have started down this road. I don't think they're collectively smart enough to understand the significant damage they're doing to their political aspirations. Parents won't forget this.

It’s also possible you’re exaggerating the political fallout or that fewer of the current SB members have political ambitions than their predecessors.

Lets look at Dunne. He's young and seems ambitions. The biggest issue in his district is MVHS. Using a school in Ft Hunt to fix that issue creates a neighborhood of voters angry about their kids' education and their property values. By moving any one of those schools to MVHS, he's also made West Potomac (already at 40% FARMS) that much worse and angered other voters. Since attendance islands seem to be something that the review is supposed to fix, what are the odds that FHES loses their island?

OK, let’s look at Dunne. He’s a Democrat in one of the most Democratic districts in a Democratic county. He spends some time on the School Board, and increases his name recognition.

Let’s also assume, just for the sake of argument, that as part of this boundary review the Fort Hunt attendance island goes away and FHES gets moved to MVHS. You have some people at FHES happy that the school is wealthier and some people at MVHS happier that FCPS has stopped treating it like a pariah and is willing to redistrict kids there. Conversely, you have some other people unhappy about getting moved to MVHS and a whole bunch of other people indifferent because none of this affects them directly.

So if Storck were to step down from the BOS and Dunne were to run he still gets the benefits of name recognition even if there are some PO’d parents. It doesn’t seem like a political career-killer by any stretch.

DP. I guess we’ll find out. The party isn’t going to be too happy when this ends up costing them the house of delegates, the state senate, or the governorship. Could see the party taking it out directly on those who caused the margins to move enough to allow the flip.

Also, don’t forget intensity. The families who see a slight change in farms at their schools will largely be indifferent. Directly impacted families will be much more intense in their hatred.

Yet a different poster. As far as I can tell, it's the non-parent aging population who drives election results in Fairfax County. 50+ people who fondly remember FCPS vote straight blue ballot (for a good chunk of the county, there are exceptions) no matter what.

This won't change a thing for those people. They won't care.

These changes will significantly impact housing values. They should care.

What about the people whose values might get a boost? I'm not saying the SB should try to boost their values, but only that there are two sides to an equation.

Good point and sparked my curiosity.

I wonder how many boundary changes would actually lower home values for the areas being transferred? Langley to Herndon, probably lower values. McLean to Falls Church (where my family goes and loves), probably lower values. What other (assumed to be in play) changes would lower home values? To be transparent, I am not sure this is a compelling argument for not making a change that addresses attendance issues, but I agree it might generate support/opposition from the households without school age kids.

Any school into Lewis, Justice, or Mt Vernon would lower values

Aren’t the Justice SFH neighborhoods hidden gems (both literally and figuratively)? But that school is at capacity with its new addition I think. So probably no redistricting there.

The brand new Falls Church HS facility should boost some home values once it’s completed, but I think the added capacity there simply addresses the current boundaries and there aren’t any expectations to shift neighborhoods into Falls Church.

It’s always better to have a nice new facility, but parents are primarily interested in academic quality. It’s hard to see how the upgraded facilities move any home prices more than a de minimus amount.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Saw this linked in the weekly newsletter. Looks like draft scenarios will be out in the April/May timeframe.

https://go.boarddocs.com/vsba/fairfax/Board.nsf/files/D9UJD64C86AD/$file/FCPS%20Project%20Planning%20Presentation_FINAL%2010-08-24.pdf

Just took a look at this. It looks like with the boundary scenario tool they are using when they shift boundaries it reports potential enrollment, FARMS %, special ed %, race, and home language (Slide 23). If they are looking for socioeconomic rebalancing, this tool will do it for them.

You do understand that data scientists can customize tools and dashboards to address whatever concerns an individual school board has, right? They're not going to use the same exact tool they used for Omaha in Fairfax County.

DP. The consultants were quite clear they’d be using the same software tool, developed by another company, that they’ve used on prior engagements. Whether they deploy the tool differently or focus on different outputs is a separate question.

They also agreed with Dunne that this will affect virtually every pyramid.

Which is why I don't expect it to pass. Every board member voting yes is willingly giving up any future in politics. Traditionally, the school board is a stepping stone and the members have made decisions with that in mind

If that were the case, then they never would have started down this road. I don't think they're collectively smart enough to understand the significant damage they're doing to their political aspirations. Parents won't forget this.

It’s also possible you’re exaggerating the political fallout or that fewer of the current SB members have political ambitions than their predecessors.

Lets look at Dunne. He's young and seems ambitions. The biggest issue in his district is MVHS. Using a school in Ft Hunt to fix that issue creates a neighborhood of voters angry about their kids' education and their property values. By moving any one of those schools to MVHS, he's also made West Potomac (already at 40% FARMS) that much worse and angered other voters. Since attendance islands seem to be something that the review is supposed to fix, what are the odds that FHES loses their island?

OK, let’s look at Dunne. He’s a Democrat in one of the most Democratic districts in a Democratic county. He spends some time on the School Board, and increases his name recognition.

Let’s also assume, just for the sake of argument, that as part of this boundary review the Fort Hunt attendance island goes away and FHES gets moved to MVHS. You have some people at FHES happy that the school is wealthier and some people at MVHS happier that FCPS has stopped treating it like a pariah and is willing to redistrict kids there. Conversely, you have some other people unhappy about getting moved to MVHS and a whole bunch of other people indifferent because none of this affects them directly.

So if Storck were to step down from the BOS and Dunne were to run he still gets the benefits of name recognition even if there are some PO’d parents. It doesn’t seem like a political career-killer by any stretch.

DP. I guess we’ll find out. The party isn’t going to be too happy when this ends up costing them the house of delegates, the state senate, or the governorship. Could see the party taking it out directly on those who caused the margins to move enough to allow the flip.

Also, don’t forget intensity. The families who see a slight change in farms at their schools will largely be indifferent. Directly impacted families will be much more intense in their hatred.

Yet a different poster. As far as I can tell, it's the non-parent aging population who drives election results in Fairfax County. 50+ people who fondly remember FCPS vote straight blue ballot (for a good chunk of the county, there are exceptions) no matter what.

This won't change a thing for those people. They won't care.

These changes will significantly impact housing values. They should care.

What about the people whose values might get a boost? I'm not saying the SB should try to boost their values, but only that there are two sides to an equation.

Good point and sparked my curiosity.

I wonder how many boundary changes would actually lower home values for the areas being transferred? Langley to Herndon, probably lower values. McLean to Falls Church (where my family goes and loves), probably lower values. What other (assumed to be in play) changes would lower home values? To be transparent, I am not sure this is a compelling argument for not making a change that addresses attendance issues, but I agree it might generate support/opposition from the households without school age kids.

Any school into Lewis, Justice, or Mt Vernon would lower values

Aren’t the Justice SFH neighborhoods hidden gems (both literally and figuratively)? But that school is at capacity with its new addition I think. So probably no redistricting there.

The brand new Falls Church HS facility should boost some home values once it’s completed, but I think the added capacity there simply addresses the current boundaries and there aren’t any expectations to shift neighborhoods into Falls Church.

There are some very nice single-family neighborhoods zoned to Justice. Most of the kids come from aging garden apartments and other areas that aren’t so nice.

They are expanding Justice to 2500 but meanwhile Ricardy Anderson is insisting that they downsize Glasgow MS, the 6-8 MS feeder to Justice. So some areas may get moved to Holmes/Annandale or Poe/Falls Church. If that leaves Justice with empty seats that is apparently OK.

As for Falls Church, with its expansion they may move the Timber Lane attendance island at Longfellow/McLean to Jackson/Falls Church. That would also eliminate the split feeder at that school.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Saw this linked in the weekly newsletter. Looks like draft scenarios will be out in the April/May timeframe.

https://go.boarddocs.com/vsba/fairfax/Board.nsf/files/D9UJD64C86AD/$file/FCPS%20Project%20Planning%20Presentation_FINAL%2010-08-24.pdf

Just took a look at this. It looks like with the boundary scenario tool they are using when they shift boundaries it reports potential enrollment, FARMS %, special ed %, race, and home language (Slide 23). If they are looking for socioeconomic rebalancing, this tool will do it for them.

You do understand that data scientists can customize tools and dashboards to address whatever concerns an individual school board has, right? They're not going to use the same exact tool they used for Omaha in Fairfax County.

DP. The consultants were quite clear they’d be using the same software tool, developed by another company, that they’ve used on prior engagements. Whether they deploy the tool differently or focus on different outputs is a separate question.

They also agreed with Dunne that this will affect virtually every pyramid.

Which is why I don't expect it to pass. Every board member voting yes is willingly giving up any future in politics. Traditionally, the school board is a stepping stone and the members have made decisions with that in mind

If that were the case, then they never would have started down this road. I don't think they're collectively smart enough to understand the significant damage they're doing to their political aspirations. Parents won't forget this.

It’s also possible you’re exaggerating the political fallout or that fewer of the current SB members have political ambitions than their predecessors.

Lets look at Dunne. He's young and seems ambitions. The biggest issue in his district is MVHS. Using a school in Ft Hunt to fix that issue creates a neighborhood of voters angry about their kids' education and their property values. By moving any one of those schools to MVHS, he's also made West Potomac (already at 40% FARMS) that much worse and angered other voters. Since attendance islands seem to be something that the review is supposed to fix, what are the odds that FHES loses their island?

OK, let’s look at Dunne. He’s a Democrat in one of the most Democratic districts in a Democratic county. He spends some time on the School Board, and increases his name recognition.

Let’s also assume, just for the sake of argument, that as part of this boundary review the Fort Hunt attendance island goes away and FHES gets moved to MVHS. You have some people at FHES happy that the school is wealthier and some people at MVHS happier that FCPS has stopped treating it like a pariah and is willing to redistrict kids there. Conversely, you have some other people unhappy about getting moved to MVHS and a whole bunch of other people indifferent because none of this affects them directly.

So if Storck were to step down from the BOS and Dunne were to run he still gets the benefits of name recognition even if there are some PO’d parents. It doesn’t seem like a political career-killer by any stretch.

DP. I guess we’ll find out. The party isn’t going to be too happy when this ends up costing them the house of delegates, the state senate, or the governorship. Could see the party taking it out directly on those who caused the margins to move enough to allow the flip.

Also, don’t forget intensity. The families who see a slight change in farms at their schools will largely be indifferent. Directly impacted families will be much more intense in their hatred.

Yet a different poster. As far as I can tell, it's the non-parent aging population who drives election results in Fairfax County. 50+ people who fondly remember FCPS vote straight blue ballot (for a good chunk of the county, there are exceptions) no matter what.

This won't change a thing for those people. They won't care.

These changes will significantly impact housing values. They should care.

What about the people whose values might get a boost? I'm not saying the SB should try to boost their values, but only that there are two sides to an equation.

Good point and sparked my curiosity.

I wonder how many boundary changes would actually lower home values for the areas being transferred? Langley to Herndon, probably lower values. McLean to Falls Church (where my family goes and loves), probably lower values. What other (assumed to be in play) changes would lower home values? To be transparent, I am not sure this is a compelling argument for not making a change that addresses attendance issues, but I agree it might generate support/opposition from the households without school age kids.

Any school into Lewis, Justice, or Mt Vernon would lower values

Aren’t the Justice SFH neighborhoods hidden gems (both literally and figuratively)? But that school is at capacity with its new addition I think. So probably no redistricting there.

The brand new Falls Church HS facility should boost some home values once it’s completed, but I think the added capacity there simply addresses the current boundaries and there aren’t any expectations to shift neighborhoods into Falls Church.

It’s always better to have a nice new facility, but parents are primarily interested in academic quality. It’s hard to see how the upgraded facilities move any home prices more than a de minimus amount.

We are zoned to Falls Church HS and planning to sell in a year or so. Our agent told us that the renovation helps alleviate buyer concerns about the schools - the old facility was in terrible shape and impacted classes - for example electric system couldn't support equipment in science classrooms, etc. The renovation helps assure buyers that the county actually cares about the schools in the pyramid. Nice athletic facilities mean visiting teams don't see the school as second class, etc. I hope they do redistrict Spring Hill to FCHS after the renovation - makes sense to alleviate crowding at McLean/eliminate split feeder.

And, yes, Sleepy Hollow and Lake Barcroft are zoned for Justice - very nice higher price homes. In my anecdotal experience, about half those families go to private and half go the public schools and find that their kids thrive.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Saw this linked in the weekly newsletter. Looks like draft scenarios will be out in the April/May timeframe.

https://go.boarddocs.com/vsba/fairfax/Board.nsf/files/D9UJD64C86AD/$file/FCPS%20Project%20Planning%20Presentation_FINAL%2010-08-24.pdf

Just took a look at this. It looks like with the boundary scenario tool they are using when they shift boundaries it reports potential enrollment, FARMS %, special ed %, race, and home language (Slide 23). If they are looking for socioeconomic rebalancing, this tool will do it for them.

You do understand that data scientists can customize tools and dashboards to address whatever concerns an individual school board has, right? They're not going to use the same exact tool they used for Omaha in Fairfax County.

DP. The consultants were quite clear they’d be using the same software tool, developed by another company, that they’ve used on prior engagements. Whether they deploy the tool differently or focus on different outputs is a separate question.

They also agreed with Dunne that this will affect virtually every pyramid.

Which is why I don't expect it to pass. Every board member voting yes is willingly giving up any future in politics. Traditionally, the school board is a stepping stone and the members have made decisions with that in mind

If that were the case, then they never would have started down this road. I don't think they're collectively smart enough to understand the significant damage they're doing to their political aspirations. Parents won't forget this.

It’s also possible you’re exaggerating the political fallout or that fewer of the current SB members have political ambitions than their predecessors.

Lets look at Dunne. He's young and seems ambitions. The biggest issue in his district is MVHS. Using a school in Ft Hunt to fix that issue creates a neighborhood of voters angry about their kids' education and their property values. By moving any one of those schools to MVHS, he's also made West Potomac (already at 40% FARMS) that much worse and angered other voters. Since attendance islands seem to be something that the review is supposed to fix, what are the odds that FHES loses their island?

OK, let’s look at Dunne. He’s a Democrat in one of the most Democratic districts in a Democratic county. He spends some time on the School Board, and increases his name recognition.

Let’s also assume, just for the sake of argument, that as part of this boundary review the Fort Hunt attendance island goes away and FHES gets moved to MVHS. You have some people at FHES happy that the school is wealthier and some people at MVHS happier that FCPS has stopped treating it like a pariah and is willing to redistrict kids there. Conversely, you have some other people unhappy about getting moved to MVHS and a whole bunch of other people indifferent because none of this affects them directly.

So if Storck were to step down from the BOS and Dunne were to run he still gets the benefits of name recognition even if there are some PO’d parents. It doesn’t seem like a political career-killer by any stretch.

DP. I guess we’ll find out. The party isn’t going to be too happy when this ends up costing them the house of delegates, the state senate, or the governorship. Could see the party taking it out directly on those who caused the margins to move enough to allow the flip.

Also, don’t forget intensity. The families who see a slight change in farms at their schools will largely be indifferent. Directly impacted families will be much more intense in their hatred.

Yet a different poster. As far as I can tell, it's the non-parent aging population who drives election results in Fairfax County. 50+ people who fondly remember FCPS vote straight blue ballot (for a good chunk of the county, there are exceptions) no matter what.

This won't change a thing for those people. They won't care.

These changes will significantly impact housing values. They should care.

What about the people whose values might get a boost? I'm not saying the SB should try to boost their values, but only that there are two sides to an equation.

Good point and sparked my curiosity.

I wonder how many boundary changes would actually lower home values for the areas being transferred? Langley to Herndon, probably lower values. McLean to Falls Church (where my family goes and loves), probably lower values. What other (assumed to be in play) changes would lower home values? To be transparent, I am not sure this is a compelling argument for not making a change that addresses attendance issues, but I agree it might generate support/opposition from the households without school age kids.

Any school into Lewis, Justice, or Mt Vernon would lower values

Aren’t the Justice SFH neighborhoods hidden gems (both literally and figuratively)? But that school is at capacity with its new addition I think. So probably no redistricting there.

The brand new Falls Church HS facility should boost some home values once it’s completed, but I think the added capacity there simply addresses the current boundaries and there aren’t any expectations to shift neighborhoods into Falls Church.

It’s always better to have a nice new facility, but parents are primarily interested in academic quality. It’s hard to see how the upgraded facilities move any home prices more than a de minimus amount.

We are zoned to Falls Church HS and planning to sell in a year or so. Our agent told us that the renovation helps alleviate buyer concerns about the schools - the old facility was in terrible shape and impacted classes - for example electric system couldn't support equipment in science classrooms, etc. The renovation helps assure buyers that the county actually cares about the schools in the pyramid. Nice athletic facilities mean visiting teams don't see the school as second class, etc. I hope they do redistrict Spring Hill to FCHS after the renovation - makes sense to alleviate crowding at McLean/eliminate split feeder.

And, yes, Sleepy Hollow and Lake Barcroft are zoned for Justice - very nice higher price homes. In my anecdotal experience, about half those families go to private and half go the public schools and find that their kids thrive.

Sorry - I meant Timber lane, not Spring Hill.

[Anonymous]

Aside from the garden apartments, a large portion of that Timberlane pyramid are tear-downs with large SFH. High property values being so close to FCC. I do not think those people would be happy moving their kids to Falls Church High School.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Aside from the garden apartments, a large portion of that Timberlane pyramid are tear-downs with large SFH. High property values being so close to FCC. I do not think those people would be happy moving their kids to Falls Church High School.

I’m actually pretty shocked that there isn’t more concern in that attendance island. Seems high on the chopping block

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Aside from the garden apartments, a large portion of that Timberlane pyramid are tear-downs with large SFH. High property values being so close to FCC. I do not think those people would be happy moving their kids to Falls Church High School.

I’m actually pretty shocked that there isn’t more concern in that attendance island. Seems high on the chopping block

Is that just speculation on the part of DCUM or grounded in anything the school board has revealed?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Aside from the garden apartments, a large portion of that Timberlane pyramid are tear-downs with large SFH. High property values being so close to FCC. I do not think those people would be happy moving their kids to Falls Church High School.

I’m actually pretty shocked that there isn’t more concern in that attendance island. Seems high on the chopping block

If I owned there, I’d be selling asap. IMO, there is very little chance that block remains with McLean HS in 7-8 years. It may or may not survive the December 2025 redistricting, but, either way, its days are numbered.

[Anonymous]

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Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Aside from the garden apartments, a large portion of that Timberlane pyramid are tear-downs with large SFH. High property values being so close to FCC. I do not think those people would be happy moving their kids to Falls Church High School.

I’m actually pretty shocked that there isn’t more concern in that attendance island. Seems high on the chopping block

Is that just speculation on the part of DCUM or grounded in anything the school board has revealed?

It’s just my speculation, but grounded in the fact that 1) McLean is overcapacity without trailers; and 2) Proximity (including no attendance islands) is one of the four primary factors required under 8130 to be considered.

Based on that, seems likely in my opinion.

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Anonymous wrote:Saw this linked in the weekly newsletter. Looks like draft scenarios will be out in the April/May timeframe.

https://go.boarddocs.com/vsba/fairfax/Board.nsf/files/D9UJD64C86AD/$file/FCPS%20Project%20Planning%20Presentation_FINAL%2010-08-24.pdf

Just took a look at this. It looks like with the boundary scenario tool they are using when they shift boundaries it reports potential enrollment, FARMS %, special ed %, race, and home language (Slide 23). If they are looking for socioeconomic rebalancing, this tool will do it for them.

You do understand that data scientists can customize tools and dashboards to address whatever concerns an individual school board has, right? They're not going to use the same exact tool they used for Omaha in Fairfax County.

DP. The consultants were quite clear they’d be using the same software tool, developed by another company, that they’ve used on prior engagements. Whether they deploy the tool differently or focus on different outputs is a separate question.

They also agreed with Dunne that this will affect virtually every pyramid.

Which is why I don't expect it to pass. Every board member voting yes is willingly giving up any future in politics. Traditionally, the school board is a stepping stone and the members have made decisions with that in mind

If that were the case, then they never would have started down this road. I don't think they're collectively smart enough to understand the significant damage they're doing to their political aspirations. Parents won't forget this.

It’s also possible you’re exaggerating the political fallout or that fewer of the current SB members have political ambitions than their predecessors.

Lets look at Dunne. He's young and seems ambitions. The biggest issue in his district is MVHS. Using a school in Ft Hunt to fix that issue creates a neighborhood of voters angry about their kids' education and their property values. By moving any one of those schools to MVHS, he's also made West Potomac (already at 40% FARMS) that much worse and angered other voters. Since attendance islands seem to be something that the review is supposed to fix, what are the odds that FHES loses their island?

OK, let’s look at Dunne. He’s a Democrat in one of the most Democratic districts in a Democratic county. He spends some time on the School Board, and increases his name recognition.

Let’s also assume, just for the sake of argument, that as part of this boundary review the Fort Hunt attendance island goes away and FHES gets moved to MVHS. You have some people at FHES happy that the school is wealthier and some people at MVHS happier that FCPS has stopped treating it like a pariah and is willing to redistrict kids there. Conversely, you have some other people unhappy about getting moved to MVHS and a whole bunch of other people indifferent because none of this affects them directly.

So if Storck were to step down from the BOS and Dunne were to run he still gets the benefits of name recognition even if there are some PO’d parents. It doesn’t seem like a political career-killer by any stretch.

DP. I guess we’ll find out. The party isn’t going to be too happy when this ends up costing them the house of delegates, the state senate, or the governorship. Could see the party taking it out directly on those who caused the margins to move enough to allow the flip.

Also, don’t forget intensity. The families who see a slight change in farms at their schools will largely be indifferent. Directly impacted families will be much more intense in their hatred.

Yet a different poster. As far as I can tell, it's the non-parent aging population who drives election results in Fairfax County. 50+ people who fondly remember FCPS vote straight blue ballot (for a good chunk of the county, there are exceptions) no matter what.

This won't change a thing for those people. They won't care.

These changes will significantly impact housing values. They should care.

What about the people whose values might get a boost? I'm not saying the SB should try to boost their values, but only that there are two sides to an equation.

Good point and sparked my curiosity.

I wonder how many boundary changes would actually lower home values for the areas being transferred? Langley to Herndon, probably lower values. McLean to Falls Church (where my family goes and loves), probably lower values. What other (assumed to be in play) changes would lower home values? To be transparent, I am not sure this is a compelling argument for not making a change that addresses attendance issues, but I agree it might generate support/opposition from the households without school age kids.

Any school into Lewis, Justice, or Mt Vernon would lower values

Aren’t the Justice SFH neighborhoods hidden gems (both literally and figuratively)? But that school is at capacity with its new addition I think. So probably no redistricting there.

The brand new Falls Church HS facility should boost some home values once it’s completed, but I think the added capacity there simply addresses the current boundaries and there aren’t any expectations to shift neighborhoods into Falls Church.

There are some very nice single-family neighborhoods zoned to Justice. Most of the kids come from aging garden apartments and other areas that aren’t so nice.

They are expanding Justice to 2500 but meanwhile Ricardy Anderson is insisting that they downsize Glasgow MS, the 6-8 MS feeder to Justice. So some areas may get moved to Holmes/Annandale or Poe/Falls Church. If that leaves Justice with empty seats that is apparently OK.

As for Falls Church, with its expansion they may move the Timber Lane attendance island at Longfellow/McLean to Jackson/Falls Church. That would also eliminate the split feeder at that school.

This is why the boundary consultants need to consult with the facilities planners and work together. Otherwise the money spent on expensive renovations will be all for naught.

Maybe they need to expand the pyramid elementary schools so that grade 6 can return, and transform Glasgow back into an intermediate school. That way you shrink Glasgow and keep the Justice addition fully utilized.

[Anonymous]

Foresee anything happening in Woodson pyramid?