2024 Senate Elections

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I’m voting Harris for president, but really hope the Senate stays red simply because the next tax bill is yet to be crafted and we need a moderating force to ensure estate taxes stay low and we don’t lose step up basis.

Unless you make over $400,000 a year or have over $100M in assets, your taxes won't change too much, if at all.

That's a shit ton of money. I wouldn't mind if they lowered those thresholds and paid for better infrastructure.

[Anonymous]

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I’m voting Harris for president, but really hope the Senate stays red simply because the next tax bill is yet to be crafted and we need a moderating force to ensure estate taxes stay low and we don’t lose step up basis.

Unless you make over $400,000 a year or have over $100M in assets, your taxes won't change too much, if at all.

That's a shit ton of money. I wouldn't mind if they lowered those thresholds and paid for better infrastructure.

Those are two very, very different thresholds.

$400K/yr already pays extra marginal tax rate.

$100Million assets is equivalent to approximately at least $2-4 Million /yr in real income after inflation.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Tester is in danger, but still likely to pull it out.

This article shows why he's popular. He's the only member of Congress in either chamber who is a working farmer. He's very grass roots and likeable. And that's why he's won the last three terms (since 2007).

Sheehy is another rich Republican. He moved to Montana and started up a business and he talks to the wealthy elite in the resort towns. Sheehy has been trying to push that Tester is just another rubber stamp for the Biden-Harris administration and he would be the same for a Harris-Walz administration. But it's hard when Tester is the only sitting Democrat that has not endorsed the Harris campaign, he did not vote for her to become the party nominee, and he's skipping the DNC. He's not tying his wagon to the current administration.

Good article showing why Tester is so well liked in Montana
https://www.npr.org/2024/08/16/g-s1-17155/why-the-last-democrat-standing-in-montana-is-skipping-the-dnc

Tester skipped the DNC in order to harvest his crop - "If you're a farmer you know that pay day only comes once a year" (actual quote to a local news reporter). And then the night of Harris's acceptance he hosted a Pearl Jam concert at U of Montana (he's personal friends with Jeff Ahmet, who lives in MT on Flathead Lake).

I was in MT last week and Tester is running a great campaign. He's on the local news every night, doing town halls across the state, etc. Sheehy is widely viewed as a rich out-of-state carpetbagger, even among local Republicans. The issues with out-of-state wealth and buying up local homes for STR purposes is really creating a real populist movement among otherwise conservative Montanan locals.

This is really great to read and checks out with what I have been hearing as well. More updates in the future would be great!

Both Tester and Ament grew up in Big Sandy, MT. It's literally the middle of nowhere.

https://montanafreepress.org/2024/07/15/convention-or-concert-for-tester-its-no-contest/
https://thepulp.org/qa-with-montana-punk-rocker-jeff-ament/

Tester vs Sheehy is one of the current politican battles that is becoming so common.

Tester is born and raised in Montana. He's a farmer and represents the local population.

Sheehy is a carpetbagger that only moved to MT a few years ago. He moved in, created a new business and he represents the elite that come in from out of state to the resort areas like Big Sky. And then you have communities for vacation-home residents that end up too expensive for the local full-time residents. The recent Teton highway collapse has only shown how different the communities are. And Tester represents those who actually live in Montana while Sheehy represents those who only visit the resorts.

Recent polls show Tester is lagging

[Anonymous]

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

”If we nominate Trump, we will get destroyed…and we will deserve it.”

-- Lindsay Graham 5/13/2016

[Anonymous]

You can't make this sh#t up.

Tester is so good at the game. Sat on the recording for a year and then dropped it into the lap of a local Tribal newspaper to break the story.

https://www.charkoosta.com/news/senate-candidate-tim-sheehy-makes-questionable-racially-tinged-remarks-about-crow-reservation/article_afc75344-6725-11ef-9065-afb44493d9ff.html

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:You can't make this sh#t up.

Tester is so good at the game. Sat on the recording for a year and then dropped it into the lap of a local Tribal newspaper to break the story.

https://www.charkoosta.com/news/senate-candidate-tim-sheehy-makes-questionable-racially-tinged-remarks-about-crow-reservation/article_afc75344-6725-11ef-9065-afb44493d9ff.html

I hope the Crow Nation vote in high volumes. I have no idea one way or the other, but I hope they register to vote and then actually vote for Tester.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Bottomless pits of GOP dark money to the rescue!

[Anonymous]

There have been suggestions there are other similar type oppo-research type things that Tester has and will sprinkle to the oublic over the next few weeks.

Montana really doesn't like carpetbaggers and somehow, this is the best the GOP can come up with both in Montana, PA, WI etc.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:There have been suggestions there are other similar type oppo-research type things that Tester has and will sprinkle to the oublic over the next few weeks.

Montana really doesn't like carpetbaggers and somehow, this is the best the GOP can come up with both in Montana, PA, WI etc.

They don’t like Democrats either. Harris is going to lose in Montana by 15+%. How is Tester going to get enough ticket splitters to overcome that kind of difference at the top of the ticket? The last election he won (2018) - it was a midterm election (lower turnout) and a huge Democratic wave election.

[Anonymous]

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Brown is well liked in Ohio and the Republicans had a lengthy, nasty primary for this Senate election. Hope Brown can pull it out. He was in talks to be Hillary Clinton’s VP nominee back in 2016 but there were concerns about his background.

[Anonymous]

Morning Consult Senate polls out tonight:
Here are our Senate numbers:

#AZSEN: Gallego+8
#FLSEN: Scott+5
#MDSEN: Alsobrooks+5
#MISEN: Slotkin+9
#NVSEN: Rosen+10
#OHSEN: Brown+3
#PASEN: Casey+9
#TXSEN: Cruz+5
#WISEN: Baldwin +7

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Morning Consult Senate polls out tonight:
Here are our Senate numbers:

#AZSEN: Gallego+8
#FLSEN: Scott+5
#MDSEN: Alsobrooks+5
#MISEN: Slotkin+9
#NVSEN: Rosen+10
#OHSEN: Brown+3
#PASEN: Casey+9
#TXSEN: Cruz+5
#WISEN: Baldwin +7

How is it that no one seems to like Ted Cruz but he keeps getting re-elected year after year