FCPS comprehensive boundary review

[Anonymous]

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Anonymous wrote:

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Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Saw this linked in the weekly newsletter. Looks like draft scenarios will be out in the April/May timeframe.

https://go.boarddocs.com/vsba/fairfax/Board.nsf/files/D9UJD64C86AD/$file/FCPS%20Project%20Planning%20Presentation_FINAL%2010-08-24.pdf

Just took a look at this. It looks like with the boundary scenario tool they are using when they shift boundaries it reports potential enrollment, FARMS %, special ed %, race, and home language (Slide 23). If they are looking for socioeconomic rebalancing, this tool will do it for them.

You do understand that data scientists can customize tools and dashboards to address whatever concerns an individual school board has, right? They're not going to use the same exact tool they used for Omaha in Fairfax County.

DP. The consultants were quite clear they’d be using the same software tool, developed by another company, that they’ve used on prior engagements. Whether they deploy the tool differently or focus on different outputs is a separate question.

They also agreed with Dunne that this will affect virtually every pyramid.

Which is why I don't expect it to pass. Every board member voting yes is willingly giving up any future in politics. Traditionally, the school board is a stepping stone and the members have made decisions with that in mind

If that were the case, then they never would have started down this road. I don't think they're collectively smart enough to understand the significant damage they're doing to their political aspirations. Parents won't forget this.

It’s also possible you’re exaggerating the political fallout or that fewer of the current SB members have political ambitions than their predecessors.

Lets look at Dunne. He's young and seems ambitions. The biggest issue in his district is MVHS. Using a school in Ft Hunt to fix that issue creates a neighborhood of voters angry about their kids' education and their property values. By moving any one of those schools to MVHS, he's also made West Potomac (already at 40% FARMS) that much worse and angered other voters. Since attendance islands seem to be something that the review is supposed to fix, what are the odds that FHES loses their island?

OK, let’s look at Dunne. He’s a Democrat in one of the most Democratic districts in a Democratic county. He spends some time on the School Board, and increases his name recognition.

Let’s also assume, just for the sake of argument, that as part of this boundary review the Fort Hunt attendance island goes away and FHES gets moved to MVHS. You have some people at FHES happy that the school is wealthier and some people at MVHS happier that FCPS has stopped treating it like a pariah and is willing to redistrict kids there. Conversely, you have some other people unhappy about getting moved to MVHS and a whole bunch of other people indifferent because none of this affects them directly.

So if Storck were to step down from the BOS and Dunne were to run he still gets the benefits of name recognition even if there are some PO’d parents. It doesn’t seem like a political career-killer by any stretch.

DP. I guess we’ll find out. The party isn’t going to be too happy when this ends up costing them the house of delegates, the state senate, or the governorship. Could see the party taking it out directly on those who caused the margins to move enough to allow the flip.

Also, don’t forget intensity. The families who see a slight change in farms at their schools will largely be indifferent. Directly impacted families will be much more intense in their hatred.

I’m mindful of the “intensity” factor but what experience suggests is that the people who care deeply about a school-related issue tend to think others care equally or can be readily persuaded to care equally. And that’s usually not how it works here. You should not under-estimate the indifference of others to your concerns or the frequency with which they simply vote a straight-party ballot.

Fair enough. I think a Trump win would ensure enough D pushback next year to make this less of an issue.

But a Harris win plus the boundary announcement in summer of 2025 is going to significantly up the odds of another R governor and an R house of delegates and R state senate.

Let’s not forget that education is the reason that Youngkin won the governorship.

Barring something unforeseen, Spanberger is going to be the next Governor. Sears, or Chase, or Miyares won't win that office. Sears and Miyares rode on Youngkin's coattails, but he's not running again and Spanberger doesn't have McAuliffe's baggage.

As for local effects, I've talked to Langley parents in Vienna and McLean who either don't care if part of Great Falls gets rezoned to Herndon, or think it's a good idea. It won't affect them if the FARMS rate at Langley skyrockets all the way to a whopping 5.5%. Forestville can pitch a fit, but it's not going to flip a local or state election.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Saw this linked in the weekly newsletter. Looks like draft scenarios will be out in the April/May timeframe.

https://go.boarddocs.com/vsba/fairfax/Board.nsf/files/D9UJD64C86AD/$file/FCPS%20Project%20Planning%20Presentation_FINAL%2010-08-24.pdf

Just took a look at this. It looks like with the boundary scenario tool they are using when they shift boundaries it reports potential enrollment, FARMS %, special ed %, race, and home language (Slide 23). If they are looking for socioeconomic rebalancing, this tool will do it for them.

You do understand that data scientists can customize tools and dashboards to address whatever concerns an individual school board has, right? They're not going to use the same exact tool they used for Omaha in Fairfax County.

DP. The consultants were quite clear they’d be using the same software tool, developed by another company, that they’ve used on prior engagements. Whether they deploy the tool differently or focus on different outputs is a separate question.

They also agreed with Dunne that this will affect virtually every pyramid.

Which is why I don't expect it to pass. Every board member voting yes is willingly giving up any future in politics. Traditionally, the school board is a stepping stone and the members have made decisions with that in mind

If that were the case, then they never would have started down this road. I don't think they're collectively smart enough to understand the significant damage they're doing to their political aspirations. Parents won't forget this.

It’s also possible you’re exaggerating the political fallout or that fewer of the current SB members have political ambitions than their predecessors.

Lets look at Dunne. He's young and seems ambitions. The biggest issue in his district is MVHS. Using a school in Ft Hunt to fix that issue creates a neighborhood of voters angry about their kids' education and their property values. By moving any one of those schools to MVHS, he's also made West Potomac (already at 40% FARMS) that much worse and angered other voters. Since attendance islands seem to be something that the review is supposed to fix, what are the odds that FHES loses their island?

OK, let’s look at Dunne. He’s a Democrat in one of the most Democratic districts in a Democratic county. He spends some time on the School Board, and increases his name recognition.

Let’s also assume, just for the sake of argument, that as part of this boundary review the Fort Hunt attendance island goes away and FHES gets moved to MVHS. You have some people at FHES happy that the school is wealthier and some people at MVHS happier that FCPS has stopped treating it like a pariah and is willing to redistrict kids there. Conversely, you have some other people unhappy about getting moved to MVHS and a whole bunch of other people indifferent because none of this affects them directly.

So if Storck were to step down from the BOS and Dunne were to run he still gets the benefits of name recognition even if there are some PO’d parents. It doesn’t seem like a political career-killer by any stretch.

DP. I guess we’ll find out. The party isn’t going to be too happy when this ends up costing them the house of delegates, the state senate, or the governorship. Could see the party taking it out directly on those who caused the margins to move enough to allow the flip.

Also, don’t forget intensity. The families who see a slight change in farms at their schools will largely be indifferent. Directly impacted families will be much more intense in their hatred.

I’m mindful of the “intensity” factor but what experience suggests is that the people who care deeply about a school-related issue tend to think others care equally or can be readily persuaded to care equally. And that’s usually not how it works here. You should not under-estimate the indifference of others to your concerns or the frequency with which they simply vote a straight-party ballot.

Fair enough. I think a Trump win would ensure enough D pushback next year to make this less of an issue.

But a Harris win plus the boundary announcement in summer of 2025 is going to significantly up the odds of another R governor and an R house of delegates and R state senate.

Let’s not forget that education is the reason that Youngkin won the governorship.

Not a PP.

The thing is, do we think the individual SB members care about the govenorship or whether some exburb flips R? Probably not. Their careers are still safe, even if they try to run for BOS or house.

You’re probably right. Which is why the other side can just sit back and wait for this to play out, then push through vouchers.

It’s a great strategy that the Fairfax Dems are playing right into.

Buahaha. Even the most ruby red states barely have vouchers and you think it's happening here? Thanks for the laugh.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Saw this linked in the weekly newsletter. Looks like draft scenarios will be out in the April/May timeframe.

https://go.boarddocs.com/vsba/fairfax/Board.nsf/files/D9UJD64C86AD/$file/FCPS%20Project%20Planning%20Presentation_FINAL%2010-08-24.pdf

Just took a look at this. It looks like with the boundary scenario tool they are using when they shift boundaries it reports potential enrollment, FARMS %, special ed %, race, and home language (Slide 23). If they are looking for socioeconomic rebalancing, this tool will do it for them.

You do understand that data scientists can customize tools and dashboards to address whatever concerns an individual school board has, right? They're not going to use the same exact tool they used for Omaha in Fairfax County.

DP. The consultants were quite clear they’d be using the same software tool, developed by another company, that they’ve used on prior engagements. Whether they deploy the tool differently or focus on different outputs is a separate question.

They also agreed with Dunne that this will affect virtually every pyramid.

Which is why I don't expect it to pass. Every board member voting yes is willingly giving up any future in politics. Traditionally, the school board is a stepping stone and the members have made decisions with that in mind

If that were the case, then they never would have started down this road. I don't think they're collectively smart enough to understand the significant damage they're doing to their political aspirations. Parents won't forget this.

It’s also possible you’re exaggerating the political fallout or that fewer of the current SB members have political ambitions than their predecessors.

Lets look at Dunne. He's young and seems ambitions. The biggest issue in his district is MVHS. Using a school in Ft Hunt to fix that issue creates a neighborhood of voters angry about their kids' education and their property values. By moving any one of those schools to MVHS, he's also made West Potomac (already at 40% FARMS) that much worse and angered other voters. Since attendance islands seem to be something that the review is supposed to fix, what are the odds that FHES loses their island?

OK, let’s look at Dunne. He’s a Democrat in one of the most Democratic districts in a Democratic county. He spends some time on the School Board, and increases his name recognition.

Let’s also assume, just for the sake of argument, that as part of this boundary review the Fort Hunt attendance island goes away and FHES gets moved to MVHS. You have some people at FHES happy that the school is wealthier and some people at MVHS happier that FCPS has stopped treating it like a pariah and is willing to redistrict kids there. Conversely, you have some other people unhappy about getting moved to MVHS and a whole bunch of other people indifferent because none of this affects them directly.

So if Storck were to step down from the BOS and Dunne were to run he still gets the benefits of name recognition even if there are some PO’d parents. It doesn’t seem like a political career-killer by any stretch.

DP. I guess we’ll find out. The party isn’t going to be too happy when this ends up costing them the house of delegates, the state senate, or the governorship. Could see the party taking it out directly on those who caused the margins to move enough to allow the flip.

Also, don’t forget intensity. The families who see a slight change in farms at their schools will largely be indifferent. Directly impacted families will be much more intense in their hatred.

I’m mindful of the “intensity” factor but what experience suggests is that the people who care deeply about a school-related issue tend to think others care equally or can be readily persuaded to care equally. And that’s usually not how it works here. You should not under-estimate the indifference of others to your concerns or the frequency with which they simply vote a straight-party ballot.

I'm a PP and I definitely agree with you on this. That said, it will be interesting to see how indifferent some people without school-age children are if/after some of these more controversial boundary changes happen and property values in those areas drop. Because they will drop. Maybe not overnight, but over time as would-be buyers look at the Great Schools scores of the schools those homes are now assigned to.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Saw this linked in the weekly newsletter. Looks like draft scenarios will be out in the April/May timeframe.

https://go.boarddocs.com/vsba/fairfax/Board.nsf/files/D9UJD64C86AD/$file/FCPS%20Project%20Planning%20Presentation_FINAL%2010-08-24.pdf

Just took a look at this. It looks like with the boundary scenario tool they are using when they shift boundaries it reports potential enrollment, FARMS %, special ed %, race, and home language (Slide 23). If they are looking for socioeconomic rebalancing, this tool will do it for them.

You do understand that data scientists can customize tools and dashboards to address whatever concerns an individual school board has, right? They're not going to use the same exact tool they used for Omaha in Fairfax County.

DP. The consultants were quite clear they’d be using the same software tool, developed by another company, that they’ve used on prior engagements. Whether they deploy the tool differently or focus on different outputs is a separate question.

They also agreed with Dunne that this will affect virtually every pyramid.

Which is why I don't expect it to pass. Every board member voting yes is willingly giving up any future in politics. Traditionally, the school board is a stepping stone and the members have made decisions with that in mind

If that were the case, then they never would have started down this road. I don't think they're collectively smart enough to understand the significant damage they're doing to their political aspirations. Parents won't forget this.

It’s also possible you’re exaggerating the political fallout or that fewer of the current SB members have political ambitions than their predecessors.

Lets look at Dunne. He's young and seems ambitions. The biggest issue in his district is MVHS. Using a school in Ft Hunt to fix that issue creates a neighborhood of voters angry about their kids' education and their property values. By moving any one of those schools to MVHS, he's also made West Potomac (already at 40% FARMS) that much worse and angered other voters. Since attendance islands seem to be something that the review is supposed to fix, what are the odds that FHES loses their island?

OK, let’s look at Dunne. He’s a Democrat in one of the most Democratic districts in a Democratic county. He spends some time on the School Board, and increases his name recognition.

Let’s also assume, just for the sake of argument, that as part of this boundary review the Fort Hunt attendance island goes away and FHES gets moved to MVHS. You have some people at FHES happy that the school is wealthier and some people at MVHS happier that FCPS has stopped treating it like a pariah and is willing to redistrict kids there. Conversely, you have some other people unhappy about getting moved to MVHS and a whole bunch of other people indifferent because none of this affects them directly.

So if Storck were to step down from the BOS and Dunne were to run he still gets the benefits of name recognition even if there are some PO’d parents. It doesn’t seem like a political career-killer by any stretch.

DP. I guess we’ll find out. The party isn’t going to be too happy when this ends up costing them the house of delegates, the state senate, or the governorship. Could see the party taking it out directly on those who caused the margins to move enough to allow the flip.

Also, don’t forget intensity. The families who see a slight change in farms at their schools will largely be indifferent. Directly impacted families will be much more intense in their hatred.

I’m mindful of the “intensity” factor but what experience suggests is that the people who care deeply about a school-related issue tend to think others care equally or can be readily persuaded to care equally. And that’s usually not how it works here. You should not under-estimate the indifference of others to your concerns or the frequency with which they simply vote a straight-party ballot.

I'm a PP and I definitely agree with you on this. That said, it will be interesting to see how indifferent some people without school-age children are if/after some of these more controversial boundary changes happen and property values in those areas drop. Because they will drop. Maybe not overnight, but over time as would-be buyers look at the Great Schools scores of the schools those homes are now assigned to.

DP and I don't think people will make a direct correlation between the changes now and the politicians then. People react to what is happening right now when they vote, not what happened 2-10 years ago.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Saw this linked in the weekly newsletter. Looks like draft scenarios will be out in the April/May timeframe.

https://go.boarddocs.com/vsba/fairfax/Board.nsf/files/D9UJD64C86AD/$file/FCPS%20Project%20Planning%20Presentation_FINAL%2010-08-24.pdf

Just took a look at this. It looks like with the boundary scenario tool they are using when they shift boundaries it reports potential enrollment, FARMS %, special ed %, race, and home language (Slide 23). If they are looking for socioeconomic rebalancing, this tool will do it for them.

You do understand that data scientists can customize tools and dashboards to address whatever concerns an individual school board has, right? They're not going to use the same exact tool they used for Omaha in Fairfax County.

DP. The consultants were quite clear they’d be using the same software tool, developed by another company, that they’ve used on prior engagements. Whether they deploy the tool differently or focus on different outputs is a separate question.

They also agreed with Dunne that this will affect virtually every pyramid.

Which is why I don't expect it to pass. Every board member voting yes is willingly giving up any future in politics. Traditionally, the school board is a stepping stone and the members have made decisions with that in mind

If that were the case, then they never would have started down this road. I don't think they're collectively smart enough to understand the significant damage they're doing to their political aspirations. Parents won't forget this.

It’s also possible you’re exaggerating the political fallout or that fewer of the current SB members have political ambitions than their predecessors.

Lets look at Dunne. He's young and seems ambitions. The biggest issue in his district is MVHS. Using a school in Ft Hunt to fix that issue creates a neighborhood of voters angry about their kids' education and their property values. By moving any one of those schools to MVHS, he's also made West Potomac (already at 40% FARMS) that much worse and angered other voters. Since attendance islands seem to be something that the review is supposed to fix, what are the odds that FHES loses their island?

OK, let’s look at Dunne. He’s a Democrat in one of the most Democratic districts in a Democratic county. He spends some time on the School Board, and increases his name recognition.

Let’s also assume, just for the sake of argument, that as part of this boundary review the Fort Hunt attendance island goes away and FHES gets moved to MVHS. You have some people at FHES happy that the school is wealthier and some people at MVHS happier that FCPS has stopped treating it like a pariah and is willing to redistrict kids there. Conversely, you have some other people unhappy about getting moved to MVHS and a whole bunch of other people indifferent because none of this affects them directly.

So if Storck were to step down from the BOS and Dunne were to run he still gets the benefits of name recognition even if there are some PO’d parents. It doesn’t seem like a political career-killer by any stretch.

DP. I guess we’ll find out. The party isn’t going to be too happy when this ends up costing them the house of delegates, the state senate, or the governorship. Could see the party taking it out directly on those who caused the margins to move enough to allow the flip.

Also, don’t forget intensity. The families who see a slight change in farms at their schools will largely be indifferent. Directly impacted families will be much more intense in their hatred.

I’m mindful of the “intensity” factor but what experience suggests is that the people who care deeply about a school-related issue tend to think others care equally or can be readily persuaded to care equally. And that’s usually not how it works here. You should not under-estimate the indifference of others to your concerns or the frequency with which they simply vote a straight-party ballot.

Fair enough. I think a Trump win would ensure enough D pushback next year to make this less of an issue.

But a Harris win plus the boundary announcement in summer of 2025 is going to significantly up the odds of another R governor and an R house of delegates and R state senate.

Let’s not forget that education is the reason that Youngkin won the governorship.

Barring something unforeseen, Spanberger is going to be the next Governor. Sears, or Chase, or Miyares won't win that office. Sears and Miyares rode on Youngkin's coattails, but he's not running again and Spanberger doesn't have McAuliffe's baggage.

As for local effects, I've talked to Langley parents in Vienna and McLean who either don't care if part of Great Falls gets rezoned to Herndon, or think it's a good idea. It won't affect them if the FARMS rate at Langley skyrockets all the way to a whopping 5.5%. Forestville can pitch a fit, but it's not going to flip a local or state election.

Dunne said every pyramid will be impacted. It isn’t just a matter of school quality, but also consistency with the school pyramid. We’ll see if parents who have to split their kids up from their friends groups will be as indifferent as you think they’ll be.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Saw this linked in the weekly newsletter. Looks like draft scenarios will be out in the April/May timeframe.

https://go.boarddocs.com/vsba/fairfax/Board.nsf/files/D9UJD64C86AD/$file/FCPS%20Project%20Planning%20Presentation_FINAL%2010-08-24.pdf

Just took a look at this. It looks like with the boundary scenario tool they are using when they shift boundaries it reports potential enrollment, FARMS %, special ed %, race, and home language (Slide 23). If they are looking for socioeconomic rebalancing, this tool will do it for them.

You do understand that data scientists can customize tools and dashboards to address whatever concerns an individual school board has, right? They're not going to use the same exact tool they used for Omaha in Fairfax County.

DP. The consultants were quite clear they’d be using the same software tool, developed by another company, that they’ve used on prior engagements. Whether they deploy the tool differently or focus on different outputs is a separate question.

They also agreed with Dunne that this will affect virtually every pyramid.

Which is why I don't expect it to pass. Every board member voting yes is willingly giving up any future in politics. Traditionally, the school board is a stepping stone and the members have made decisions with that in mind

If that were the case, then they never would have started down this road. I don't think they're collectively smart enough to understand the significant damage they're doing to their political aspirations. Parents won't forget this.

It’s also possible you’re exaggerating the political fallout or that fewer of the current SB members have political ambitions than their predecessors.

Lets look at Dunne. He's young and seems ambitions. The biggest issue in his district is MVHS. Using a school in Ft Hunt to fix that issue creates a neighborhood of voters angry about their kids' education and their property values. By moving any one of those schools to MVHS, he's also made West Potomac (already at 40% FARMS) that much worse and angered other voters. Since attendance islands seem to be something that the review is supposed to fix, what are the odds that FHES loses their island?

OK, let’s look at Dunne. He’s a Democrat in one of the most Democratic districts in a Democratic county. He spends some time on the School Board, and increases his name recognition.

Let’s also assume, just for the sake of argument, that as part of this boundary review the Fort Hunt attendance island goes away and FHES gets moved to MVHS. You have some people at FHES happy that the school is wealthier and some people at MVHS happier that FCPS has stopped treating it like a pariah and is willing to redistrict kids there. Conversely, you have some other people unhappy about getting moved to MVHS and a whole bunch of other people indifferent because none of this affects them directly.

So if Storck were to step down from the BOS and Dunne were to run he still gets the benefits of name recognition even if there are some PO’d parents. It doesn’t seem like a political career-killer by any stretch.

DP. I guess we’ll find out. The party isn’t going to be too happy when this ends up costing them the house of delegates, the state senate, or the governorship. Could see the party taking it out directly on those who caused the margins to move enough to allow the flip.

Also, don’t forget intensity. The families who see a slight change in farms at their schools will largely be indifferent. Directly impacted families will be much more intense in their hatred.

I’m mindful of the “intensity” factor but what experience suggests is that the people who care deeply about a school-related issue tend to think others care equally or can be readily persuaded to care equally. And that’s usually not how it works here. You should not under-estimate the indifference of others to your concerns or the frequency with which they simply vote a straight-party ballot.

Fair enough. I think a Trump win would ensure enough D pushback next year to make this less of an issue.

But a Harris win plus the boundary announcement in summer of 2025 is going to significantly up the odds of another R governor and an R house of delegates and R state senate.

Let’s not forget that education is the reason that Youngkin won the governorship.

Not a PP.

The thing is, do we think the individual SB members care about the govenorship or whether some exburb flips R? Probably not. Their careers are still safe, even if they try to run for BOS or house.

You’re probably right. Which is why the other side can just sit back and wait for this to play out, then push through vouchers.

It’s a great strategy that the Fairfax Dems are playing right into.

Buahaha. Even the most ruby red states barely have vouchers and you think it's happening here? Thanks for the laugh.

You know most of us know how to google right? Your false bravado is showing.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Saw this linked in the weekly newsletter. Looks like draft scenarios will be out in the April/May timeframe.

https://go.boarddocs.com/vsba/fairfax/Board.nsf/files/D9UJD64C86AD/$file/FCPS%20Project%20Planning%20Presentation_FINAL%2010-08-24.pdf

Just took a look at this. It looks like with the boundary scenario tool they are using when they shift boundaries it reports potential enrollment, FARMS %, special ed %, race, and home language (Slide 23). If they are looking for socioeconomic rebalancing, this tool will do it for them.

You do understand that data scientists can customize tools and dashboards to address whatever concerns an individual school board has, right? They're not going to use the same exact tool they used for Omaha in Fairfax County.

DP. The consultants were quite clear they’d be using the same software tool, developed by another company, that they’ve used on prior engagements. Whether they deploy the tool differently or focus on different outputs is a separate question.

They also agreed with Dunne that this will affect virtually every pyramid.

Which is why I don't expect it to pass. Every board member voting yes is willingly giving up any future in politics. Traditionally, the school board is a stepping stone and the members have made decisions with that in mind

If that were the case, then they never would have started down this road. I don't think they're collectively smart enough to understand the significant damage they're doing to their political aspirations. Parents won't forget this.

It’s also possible you’re exaggerating the political fallout or that fewer of the current SB members have political ambitions than their predecessors.

Lets look at Dunne. He's young and seems ambitions. The biggest issue in his district is MVHS. Using a school in Ft Hunt to fix that issue creates a neighborhood of voters angry about their kids' education and their property values. By moving any one of those schools to MVHS, he's also made West Potomac (already at 40% FARMS) that much worse and angered other voters. Since attendance islands seem to be something that the review is supposed to fix, what are the odds that FHES loses their island?

OK, let’s look at Dunne. He’s a Democrat in one of the most Democratic districts in a Democratic county. He spends some time on the School Board, and increases his name recognition.

Let’s also assume, just for the sake of argument, that as part of this boundary review the Fort Hunt attendance island goes away and FHES gets moved to MVHS. You have some people at FHES happy that the school is wealthier and some people at MVHS happier that FCPS has stopped treating it like a pariah and is willing to redistrict kids there. Conversely, you have some other people unhappy about getting moved to MVHS and a whole bunch of other people indifferent because none of this affects them directly.

So if Storck were to step down from the BOS and Dunne were to run he still gets the benefits of name recognition even if there are some PO’d parents. It doesn’t seem like a political career-killer by any stretch.

DP. I guess we’ll find out. The party isn’t going to be too happy when this ends up costing them the house of delegates, the state senate, or the governorship. Could see the party taking it out directly on those who caused the margins to move enough to allow the flip.

Also, don’t forget intensity. The families who see a slight change in farms at their schools will largely be indifferent. Directly impacted families will be much more intense in their hatred.

I’m mindful of the “intensity” factor but what experience suggests is that the people who care deeply about a school-related issue tend to think others care equally or can be readily persuaded to care equally. And that’s usually not how it works here. You should not under-estimate the indifference of others to your concerns or the frequency with which they simply vote a straight-party ballot.

Fair enough. I think a Trump win would ensure enough D pushback next year to make this less of an issue.

But a Harris win plus the boundary announcement in summer of 2025 is going to significantly up the odds of another R governor and an R house of delegates and R state senate.

Let’s not forget that education is the reason that Youngkin won the governorship.

Not a PP.

The thing is, do we think the individual SB members care about the govenorship or whether some exburb flips R? Probably not. Their careers are still safe, even if they try to run for BOS or house.

You’re probably right. Which is why the other side can just sit back and wait for this to play out, then push through vouchers.

It’s a great strategy that the Fairfax Dems are playing right into.

Buahaha. Even the most ruby red states barely have vouchers and you think it's happening here? Thanks for the laugh.

You know most of us know how to google right? Your false bravado is showing.

Guess it depends on how you define vouchers. When states offer some money to lower income families I don't define it as the sky-is-falling vouchers-for-all program everyone always screams about.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Saw this linked in the weekly newsletter. Looks like draft scenarios will be out in the April/May timeframe.

https://go.boarddocs.com/vsba/fairfax/Board.nsf/files/D9UJD64C86AD/$file/FCPS%20Project%20Planning%20Presentation_FINAL%2010-08-24.pdf

Just took a look at this. It looks like with the boundary scenario tool they are using when they shift boundaries it reports potential enrollment, FARMS %, special ed %, race, and home language (Slide 23). If they are looking for socioeconomic rebalancing, this tool will do it for them.

You do understand that data scientists can customize tools and dashboards to address whatever concerns an individual school board has, right? They're not going to use the same exact tool they used for Omaha in Fairfax County.

DP. The consultants were quite clear they’d be using the same software tool, developed by another company, that they’ve used on prior engagements. Whether they deploy the tool differently or focus on different outputs is a separate question.

They also agreed with Dunne that this will affect virtually every pyramid.

Which is why I don't expect it to pass. Every board member voting yes is willingly giving up any future in politics. Traditionally, the school board is a stepping stone and the members have made decisions with that in mind

If that were the case, then they never would have started down this road. I don't think they're collectively smart enough to understand the significant damage they're doing to their political aspirations. Parents won't forget this.

It’s also possible you’re exaggerating the political fallout or that fewer of the current SB members have political ambitions than their predecessors.

Lets look at Dunne. He's young and seems ambitions. The biggest issue in his district is MVHS. Using a school in Ft Hunt to fix that issue creates a neighborhood of voters angry about their kids' education and their property values. By moving any one of those schools to MVHS, he's also made West Potomac (already at 40% FARMS) that much worse and angered other voters. Since attendance islands seem to be something that the review is supposed to fix, what are the odds that FHES loses their island?

OK, let’s look at Dunne. He’s a Democrat in one of the most Democratic districts in a Democratic county. He spends some time on the School Board, and increases his name recognition.

Let’s also assume, just for the sake of argument, that as part of this boundary review the Fort Hunt attendance island goes away and FHES gets moved to MVHS. You have some people at FHES happy that the school is wealthier and some people at MVHS happier that FCPS has stopped treating it like a pariah and is willing to redistrict kids there. Conversely, you have some other people unhappy about getting moved to MVHS and a whole bunch of other people indifferent because none of this affects them directly.

So if Storck were to step down from the BOS and Dunne were to run he still gets the benefits of name recognition even if there are some PO’d parents. It doesn’t seem like a political career-killer by any stretch.

DP. I guess we’ll find out. The party isn’t going to be too happy when this ends up costing them the house of delegates, the state senate, or the governorship. Could see the party taking it out directly on those who caused the margins to move enough to allow the flip.

Also, don’t forget intensity. The families who see a slight change in farms at their schools will largely be indifferent. Directly impacted families will be much more intense in their hatred.

Yet a different poster. As far as I can tell, it's the non-parent aging population who drives election results in Fairfax County. 50+ people who fondly remember FCPS vote straight blue ballot (for a good chunk of the county, there are exceptions) no matter what.

This won't change a thing for those people. They won't care.

These changes will significantly impact housing values. They should care.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Saw this linked in the weekly newsletter. Looks like draft scenarios will be out in the April/May timeframe.

https://go.boarddocs.com/vsba/fairfax/Board.nsf/files/D9UJD64C86AD/$file/FCPS%20Project%20Planning%20Presentation_FINAL%2010-08-24.pdf

Just took a look at this. It looks like with the boundary scenario tool they are using when they shift boundaries it reports potential enrollment, FARMS %, special ed %, race, and home language (Slide 23). If they are looking for socioeconomic rebalancing, this tool will do it for them.

You do understand that data scientists can customize tools and dashboards to address whatever concerns an individual school board has, right? They're not going to use the same exact tool they used for Omaha in Fairfax County.

DP. The consultants were quite clear they’d be using the same software tool, developed by another company, that they’ve used on prior engagements. Whether they deploy the tool differently or focus on different outputs is a separate question.

They also agreed with Dunne that this will affect virtually every pyramid.

Which is why I don't expect it to pass. Every board member voting yes is willingly giving up any future in politics. Traditionally, the school board is a stepping stone and the members have made decisions with that in mind

If that were the case, then they never would have started down this road. I don't think they're collectively smart enough to understand the significant damage they're doing to their political aspirations. Parents won't forget this.

It’s also possible you’re exaggerating the political fallout or that fewer of the current SB members have political ambitions than their predecessors.

Lets look at Dunne. He's young and seems ambitions. The biggest issue in his district is MVHS. Using a school in Ft Hunt to fix that issue creates a neighborhood of voters angry about their kids' education and their property values. By moving any one of those schools to MVHS, he's also made West Potomac (already at 40% FARMS) that much worse and angered other voters. Since attendance islands seem to be something that the review is supposed to fix, what are the odds that FHES loses their island?

OK, let’s look at Dunne. He’s a Democrat in one of the most Democratic districts in a Democratic county. He spends some time on the School Board, and increases his name recognition.

Let’s also assume, just for the sake of argument, that as part of this boundary review the Fort Hunt attendance island goes away and FHES gets moved to MVHS. You have some people at FHES happy that the school is wealthier and some people at MVHS happier that FCPS has stopped treating it like a pariah and is willing to redistrict kids there. Conversely, you have some other people unhappy about getting moved to MVHS and a whole bunch of other people indifferent because none of this affects them directly.

So if Storck were to step down from the BOS and Dunne were to run he still gets the benefits of name recognition even if there are some PO’d parents. It doesn’t seem like a political career-killer by any stretch.

DP. I guess we’ll find out. The party isn’t going to be too happy when this ends up costing them the house of delegates, the state senate, or the governorship. Could see the party taking it out directly on those who caused the margins to move enough to allow the flip.

Also, don’t forget intensity. The families who see a slight change in farms at their schools will largely be indifferent. Directly impacted families will be much more intense in their hatred.

I’m mindful of the “intensity” factor but what experience suggests is that the people who care deeply about a school-related issue tend to think others care equally or can be readily persuaded to care equally. And that’s usually not how it works here. You should not under-estimate the indifference of others to your concerns or the frequency with which they simply vote a straight-party ballot.

Fair enough. I think a Trump win would ensure enough D pushback next year to make this less of an issue.

But a Harris win plus the boundary announcement in summer of 2025 is going to significantly up the odds of another R governor and an R house of delegates and R state senate.

Let’s not forget that education is the reason that Youngkin won the governorship.

Barring something unforeseen, Spanberger is going to be the next Governor. Sears, or Chase, or Miyares won't win that office. Sears and Miyares rode on Youngkin's coattails, but he's not running again and Spanberger doesn't have McAuliffe's baggage.

As for local effects, I've talked to Langley parents in Vienna and McLean who either don't care if part of Great Falls gets rezoned to Herndon, or think it's a good idea. It won't affect them if the FARMS rate at Langley skyrockets all the way to a whopping 5.5%. Forestville can pitch a fit, but it's not going to flip a local or state election.

Dunne said every pyramid will be impacted. It isn’t just a matter of school quality, but also consistency with the school pyramid. We’ll see if parents who have to split their kids up from their friends groups will be as indifferent as you think they’ll be.

Read the post. I don't think the parents who will be most affected will be indifferent, but rather than the majority who won't be materially affected are likely to get too agitated. If every pyramid is affected, but most are affected on the margins, that doesn't suggest there will be a sufficiently large number of upset parents to flip local/state elections. Also, keep in mind that some of these changes may please parents with younger children if it means eliminating split feeders or reducing commutes.

I do think there's a bigger issue as to whether "the juice is worth the squeeze" at a time when FCPS enrollments are flat and even down slightly. Perhaps that will translate into a larger, more successful attack on unnecessary boundary changes by an all-Democratic School Board with a penchant for disguised social activism. But I'm skeptical given the overall voting profile in the county.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Saw this linked in the weekly newsletter. Looks like draft scenarios will be out in the April/May timeframe.

https://go.boarddocs.com/vsba/fairfax/Board.nsf/files/D9UJD64C86AD/$file/FCPS%20Project%20Planning%20Presentation_FINAL%2010-08-24.pdf

Just took a look at this. It looks like with the boundary scenario tool they are using when they shift boundaries it reports potential enrollment, FARMS %, special ed %, race, and home language (Slide 23). If they are looking for socioeconomic rebalancing, this tool will do it for them.

You do understand that data scientists can customize tools and dashboards to address whatever concerns an individual school board has, right? They're not going to use the same exact tool they used for Omaha in Fairfax County.

DP. The consultants were quite clear they’d be using the same software tool, developed by another company, that they’ve used on prior engagements. Whether they deploy the tool differently or focus on different outputs is a separate question.

They also agreed with Dunne that this will affect virtually every pyramid.

Which is why I don't expect it to pass. Every board member voting yes is willingly giving up any future in politics. Traditionally, the school board is a stepping stone and the members have made decisions with that in mind

If that were the case, then they never would have started down this road. I don't think they're collectively smart enough to understand the significant damage they're doing to their political aspirations. Parents won't forget this.

It’s also possible you’re exaggerating the political fallout or that fewer of the current SB members have political ambitions than their predecessors.

Lets look at Dunne. He's young and seems ambitions. The biggest issue in his district is MVHS. Using a school in Ft Hunt to fix that issue creates a neighborhood of voters angry about their kids' education and their property values. By moving any one of those schools to MVHS, he's also made West Potomac (already at 40% FARMS) that much worse and angered other voters. Since attendance islands seem to be something that the review is supposed to fix, what are the odds that FHES loses their island?

OK, let’s look at Dunne. He’s a Democrat in one of the most Democratic districts in a Democratic county. He spends some time on the School Board, and increases his name recognition.

Let’s also assume, just for the sake of argument, that as part of this boundary review the Fort Hunt attendance island goes away and FHES gets moved to MVHS. You have some people at FHES happy that the school is wealthier and some people at MVHS happier that FCPS has stopped treating it like a pariah and is willing to redistrict kids there. Conversely, you have some other people unhappy about getting moved to MVHS and a whole bunch of other people indifferent because none of this affects them directly.

So if Storck were to step down from the BOS and Dunne were to run he still gets the benefits of name recognition even if there are some PO’d parents. It doesn’t seem like a political career-killer by any stretch.

DP. I guess we’ll find out. The party isn’t going to be too happy when this ends up costing them the house of delegates, the state senate, or the governorship. Could see the party taking it out directly on those who caused the margins to move enough to allow the flip.

Also, don’t forget intensity. The families who see a slight change in farms at their schools will largely be indifferent. Directly impacted families will be much more intense in their hatred.

Yet a different poster. As far as I can tell, it's the non-parent aging population who drives election results in Fairfax County. 50+ people who fondly remember FCPS vote straight blue ballot (for a good chunk of the county, there are exceptions) no matter what.

This won't change a thing for those people. They won't care.

These changes will significantly impact housing values. They should care.

What about the people whose values might get a boost? I'm not saying the SB should try to boost their values, but only that there are two sides to an equation.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Saw this linked in the weekly newsletter. Looks like draft scenarios will be out in the April/May timeframe.

https://go.boarddocs.com/vsba/fairfax/Board.nsf/files/D9UJD64C86AD/$file/FCPS%20Project%20Planning%20Presentation_FINAL%2010-08-24.pdf

Just took a look at this. It looks like with the boundary scenario tool they are using when they shift boundaries it reports potential enrollment, FARMS %, special ed %, race, and home language (Slide 23). If they are looking for socioeconomic rebalancing, this tool will do it for them.

You do understand that data scientists can customize tools and dashboards to address whatever concerns an individual school board has, right? They're not going to use the same exact tool they used for Omaha in Fairfax County.

DP. The consultants were quite clear they’d be using the same software tool, developed by another company, that they’ve used on prior engagements. Whether they deploy the tool differently or focus on different outputs is a separate question.

They also agreed with Dunne that this will affect virtually every pyramid.

Which is why I don't expect it to pass. Every board member voting yes is willingly giving up any future in politics. Traditionally, the school board is a stepping stone and the members have made decisions with that in mind

If that were the case, then they never would have started down this road. I don't think they're collectively smart enough to understand the significant damage they're doing to their political aspirations. Parents won't forget this.

It’s also possible you’re exaggerating the political fallout or that fewer of the current SB members have political ambitions than their predecessors.

Lets look at Dunne. He's young and seems ambitions. The biggest issue in his district is MVHS. Using a school in Ft Hunt to fix that issue creates a neighborhood of voters angry about their kids' education and their property values. By moving any one of those schools to MVHS, he's also made West Potomac (already at 40% FARMS) that much worse and angered other voters. Since attendance islands seem to be something that the review is supposed to fix, what are the odds that FHES loses their island?

OK, let’s look at Dunne. He’s a Democrat in one of the most Democratic districts in a Democratic county. He spends some time on the School Board, and increases his name recognition.

Let’s also assume, just for the sake of argument, that as part of this boundary review the Fort Hunt attendance island goes away and FHES gets moved to MVHS. You have some people at FHES happy that the school is wealthier and some people at MVHS happier that FCPS has stopped treating it like a pariah and is willing to redistrict kids there. Conversely, you have some other people unhappy about getting moved to MVHS and a whole bunch of other people indifferent because none of this affects them directly.

So if Storck were to step down from the BOS and Dunne were to run he still gets the benefits of name recognition even if there are some PO’d parents. It doesn’t seem like a political career-killer by any stretch.

DP. I guess we’ll find out. The party isn’t going to be too happy when this ends up costing them the house of delegates, the state senate, or the governorship. Could see the party taking it out directly on those who caused the margins to move enough to allow the flip.

Also, don’t forget intensity. The families who see a slight change in farms at their schools will largely be indifferent. Directly impacted families will be much more intense in their hatred.

Yet a different poster. As far as I can tell, it's the non-parent aging population who drives election results in Fairfax County. 50+ people who fondly remember FCPS vote straight blue ballot (for a good chunk of the county, there are exceptions) no matter what.

This won't change a thing for those people. They won't care.

These changes will significantly impact housing values. They should care.

What about the people whose values might get a boost? I'm not saying the SB should try to boost their values, but only that there are two sides to an equation.

Good point and sparked my curiosity.

I wonder how many boundary changes would actually lower home values for the areas being transferred? Langley to Herndon, probably lower values. McLean to Falls Church (where my family goes and loves), probably lower values. What other (assumed to be in play) changes would lower home values? To be transparent, I am not sure this is a compelling argument for not making a change that addresses attendance issues, but I agree it might generate support/opposition from the households without school age kids.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Saw this linked in the weekly newsletter. Looks like draft scenarios will be out in the April/May timeframe.

https://go.boarddocs.com/vsba/fairfax/Board.nsf/files/D9UJD64C86AD/$file/FCPS%20Project%20Planning%20Presentation_FINAL%2010-08-24.pdf

Just took a look at this. It looks like with the boundary scenario tool they are using when they shift boundaries it reports potential enrollment, FARMS %, special ed %, race, and home language (Slide 23). If they are looking for socioeconomic rebalancing, this tool will do it for them.

You do understand that data scientists can customize tools and dashboards to address whatever concerns an individual school board has, right? They're not going to use the same exact tool they used for Omaha in Fairfax County.

DP. The consultants were quite clear they’d be using the same software tool, developed by another company, that they’ve used on prior engagements. Whether they deploy the tool differently or focus on different outputs is a separate question.

They also agreed with Dunne that this will affect virtually every pyramid.

Which is why I don't expect it to pass. Every board member voting yes is willingly giving up any future in politics. Traditionally, the school board is a stepping stone and the members have made decisions with that in mind

If that were the case, then they never would have started down this road. I don't think they're collectively smart enough to understand the significant damage they're doing to their political aspirations. Parents won't forget this.

It’s also possible you’re exaggerating the political fallout or that fewer of the current SB members have political ambitions than their predecessors.

Lets look at Dunne. He's young and seems ambitions. The biggest issue in his district is MVHS. Using a school in Ft Hunt to fix that issue creates a neighborhood of voters angry about their kids' education and their property values. By moving any one of those schools to MVHS, he's also made West Potomac (already at 40% FARMS) that much worse and angered other voters. Since attendance islands seem to be something that the review is supposed to fix, what are the odds that FHES loses their island?

OK, let’s look at Dunne. He’s a Democrat in one of the most Democratic districts in a Democratic county. He spends some time on the School Board, and increases his name recognition.

Let’s also assume, just for the sake of argument, that as part of this boundary review the Fort Hunt attendance island goes away and FHES gets moved to MVHS. You have some people at FHES happy that the school is wealthier and some people at MVHS happier that FCPS has stopped treating it like a pariah and is willing to redistrict kids there. Conversely, you have some other people unhappy about getting moved to MVHS and a whole bunch of other people indifferent because none of this affects them directly.

So if Storck were to step down from the BOS and Dunne were to run he still gets the benefits of name recognition even if there are some PO’d parents. It doesn’t seem like a political career-killer by any stretch.

DP. I guess we’ll find out. The party isn’t going to be too happy when this ends up costing them the house of delegates, the state senate, or the governorship. Could see the party taking it out directly on those who caused the margins to move enough to allow the flip.

Also, don’t forget intensity. The families who see a slight change in farms at their schools will largely be indifferent. Directly impacted families will be much more intense in their hatred.

Yet a different poster. As far as I can tell, it's the non-parent aging population who drives election results in Fairfax County. 50+ people who fondly remember FCPS vote straight blue ballot (for a good chunk of the county, there are exceptions) no matter what.

This won't change a thing for those people. They won't care.

These changes will significantly impact housing values. They should care.

What about the people whose values might get a boost? I'm not saying the SB should try to boost their values, but only that there are two sides to an equation.

Good point and sparked my curiosity.

I wonder how many boundary changes would actually lower home values for the areas being transferred? Langley to Herndon, probably lower values. McLean to Falls Church (where my family goes and loves), probably lower values. What other (assumed to be in play) changes would lower home values? To be transparent, I am not sure this is a compelling argument for not making a change that addresses attendance issues, but I agree it might generate support/opposition from the households without school age kids.

Any school into Lewis, Justice, or Mt Vernon would lower values

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Saw this linked in the weekly newsletter. Looks like draft scenarios will be out in the April/May timeframe.

https://go.boarddocs.com/vsba/fairfax/Board.nsf/files/D9UJD64C86AD/$file/FCPS%20Project%20Planning%20Presentation_FINAL%2010-08-24.pdf

Just took a look at this. It looks like with the boundary scenario tool they are using when they shift boundaries it reports potential enrollment, FARMS %, special ed %, race, and home language (Slide 23). If they are looking for socioeconomic rebalancing, this tool will do it for them.

You do understand that data scientists can customize tools and dashboards to address whatever concerns an individual school board has, right? They're not going to use the same exact tool they used for Omaha in Fairfax County.

DP. The consultants were quite clear they’d be using the same software tool, developed by another company, that they’ve used on prior engagements. Whether they deploy the tool differently or focus on different outputs is a separate question.

They also agreed with Dunne that this will affect virtually every pyramid.

Which is why I don't expect it to pass. Every board member voting yes is willingly giving up any future in politics. Traditionally, the school board is a stepping stone and the members have made decisions with that in mind

If that were the case, then they never would have started down this road. I don't think they're collectively smart enough to understand the significant damage they're doing to their political aspirations. Parents won't forget this.

It’s also possible you’re exaggerating the political fallout or that fewer of the current SB members have political ambitions than their predecessors.

Lets look at Dunne. He's young and seems ambitions. The biggest issue in his district is MVHS. Using a school in Ft Hunt to fix that issue creates a neighborhood of voters angry about their kids' education and their property values. By moving any one of those schools to MVHS, he's also made West Potomac (already at 40% FARMS) that much worse and angered other voters. Since attendance islands seem to be something that the review is supposed to fix, what are the odds that FHES loses their island?

OK, let’s look at Dunne. He’s a Democrat in one of the most Democratic districts in a Democratic county. He spends some time on the School Board, and increases his name recognition.

Let’s also assume, just for the sake of argument, that as part of this boundary review the Fort Hunt attendance island goes away and FHES gets moved to MVHS. You have some people at FHES happy that the school is wealthier and some people at MVHS happier that FCPS has stopped treating it like a pariah and is willing to redistrict kids there. Conversely, you have some other people unhappy about getting moved to MVHS and a whole bunch of other people indifferent because none of this affects them directly.

So if Storck were to step down from the BOS and Dunne were to run he still gets the benefits of name recognition even if there are some PO’d parents. It doesn’t seem like a political career-killer by any stretch.

DP. I guess we’ll find out. The party isn’t going to be too happy when this ends up costing them the house of delegates, the state senate, or the governorship. Could see the party taking it out directly on those who caused the margins to move enough to allow the flip.

Also, don’t forget intensity. The families who see a slight change in farms at their schools will largely be indifferent. Directly impacted families will be much more intense in their hatred.

Yet a different poster. As far as I can tell, it's the non-parent aging population who drives election results in Fairfax County. 50+ people who fondly remember FCPS vote straight blue ballot (for a good chunk of the county, there are exceptions) no matter what.

This won't change a thing for those people. They won't care.

These changes will significantly impact housing values. They should care.

What about the people whose values might get a boost? I'm not saying the SB should try to boost their values, but only that there are two sides to an equation.

Good point and sparked my curiosity.

I wonder how many boundary changes would actually lower home values for the areas being transferred? Langley to Herndon, probably lower values. McLean to Falls Church (where my family goes and loves), probably lower values. What other (assumed to be in play) changes would lower home values? To be transparent, I am not sure this is a compelling argument for not making a change that addresses attendance issues, but I agree it might generate support/opposition from the households without school age kids.

The two obvious ones would be if a West Springfield feeder gets moved to Lewis and a West Potomac feeder gets moved to Mount Vernon. The perception is that both would lower home values.

On the other hand, a lot of the changes to clean up ES split feeders/attendance islands might have minimal impact, especially if kids were staying at the same MS/HS.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Saw this linked in the weekly newsletter. Looks like draft scenarios will be out in the April/May timeframe.

https://go.boarddocs.com/vsba/fairfax/Board.nsf/files/D9UJD64C86AD/$file/FCPS%20Project%20Planning%20Presentation_FINAL%2010-08-24.pdf

Just took a look at this. It looks like with the boundary scenario tool they are using when they shift boundaries it reports potential enrollment, FARMS %, special ed %, race, and home language (Slide 23). If they are looking for socioeconomic rebalancing, this tool will do it for them.

You do understand that data scientists can customize tools and dashboards to address whatever concerns an individual school board has, right? They're not going to use the same exact tool they used for Omaha in Fairfax County.

DP. The consultants were quite clear they’d be using the same software tool, developed by another company, that they’ve used on prior engagements. Whether they deploy the tool differently or focus on different outputs is a separate question.

They also agreed with Dunne that this will affect virtually every pyramid.

Which is why I don't expect it to pass. Every board member voting yes is willingly giving up any future in politics. Traditionally, the school board is a stepping stone and the members have made decisions with that in mind

If that were the case, then they never would have started down this road. I don't think they're collectively smart enough to understand the significant damage they're doing to their political aspirations. Parents won't forget this.

It’s also possible you’re exaggerating the political fallout or that fewer of the current SB members have political ambitions than their predecessors.

Lets look at Dunne. He's young and seems ambitions. The biggest issue in his district is MVHS. Using a school in Ft Hunt to fix that issue creates a neighborhood of voters angry about their kids' education and their property values. By moving any one of those schools to MVHS, he's also made West Potomac (already at 40% FARMS) that much worse and angered other voters. Since attendance islands seem to be something that the review is supposed to fix, what are the odds that FHES loses their island?

OK, let’s look at Dunne. He’s a Democrat in one of the most Democratic districts in a Democratic county. He spends some time on the School Board, and increases his name recognition.

Let’s also assume, just for the sake of argument, that as part of this boundary review the Fort Hunt attendance island goes away and FHES gets moved to MVHS. You have some people at FHES happy that the school is wealthier and some people at MVHS happier that FCPS has stopped treating it like a pariah and is willing to redistrict kids there. Conversely, you have some other people unhappy about getting moved to MVHS and a whole bunch of other people indifferent because none of this affects them directly.

So if Storck were to step down from the BOS and Dunne were to run he still gets the benefits of name recognition even if there are some PO’d parents. It doesn’t seem like a political career-killer by any stretch.

DP. I guess we’ll find out. The party isn’t going to be too happy when this ends up costing them the house of delegates, the state senate, or the governorship. Could see the party taking it out directly on those who caused the margins to move enough to allow the flip.

Also, don’t forget intensity. The families who see a slight change in farms at their schools will largely be indifferent. Directly impacted families will be much more intense in their hatred.

Yet a different poster. As far as I can tell, it's the non-parent aging population who drives election results in Fairfax County. 50+ people who fondly remember FCPS vote straight blue ballot (for a good chunk of the county, there are exceptions) no matter what.

This won't change a thing for those people. They won't care.

These changes will significantly impact housing values. They should care.

What about the people whose values might get a boost? I'm not saying the SB should try to boost their values, but only that there are two sides to an equation.

Good point and sparked my curiosity.

I wonder how many boundary changes would actually lower home values for the areas being transferred? Langley to Herndon, probably lower values. McLean to Falls Church (where my family goes and loves), probably lower values. What other (assumed to be in play) changes would lower home values? To be transparent, I am not sure this is a compelling argument for not making a change that addresses attendance issues, but I agree it might generate support/opposition from the households without school age kids.

Any school into Lewis, Justice, or Mt Vernon would lower values

No one should expect to get moved to Justice. It has a fairly large enrollment now, unlike Lewis and Mount Vernon.

[Anonymous]

Home values will still remain high for kids zoned for Hunt Valley if moved to Lewis. If anything, it might pull more enlisted families in.