Dem pollsters acknowledge ‘major errors’ in 2020 polling

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I still feel deep down that R’s have been stealing elections for years.

And now they are suppressing votes by law

I said so on the first page and I stand by that.

Look at the Q nonsense, the centerpiece charge of which was that there was a cabal of all powerful Democrats who were trading kids around. Turns out there’s a cabal alright, but it’s Republicans. They are all projection. So their continued obsession with alleged election fraud strongly points the finger to them stealing elections across the country. I think 2020 was an absolute blowout win for the Democrats. I think Biden probably won closer to 90 million votes (if not more) and Trump probably closer to 65 million votes (and probably less). I think there is a solid Democratic majority in the Senate and I think we probably won a lot more state elections, too.

Ask yourself: why would the Democratic pollsters all be off? Does that even make sense? Contrary to the childish conservative belief (but I repeat myself) that pollsters want to steer people, they actually want to be as accurate as possible because that’s how pollsters keep a reputation for accuracy and how they stay in business. But if the GOP pollsters are all in on the GOP’s game, they can adjust their polls as necessary.

So this is what the liberal version of Q looks like ^^^. Wow.

Not really.

DP. I'm a Democrat and yeah it is. I love the 90-65 victory. But no evidence. Just because they are paranoid doesn't mean you aren't.

I don’t care if your name is Joe Biden. I’m not paranoid. What I say makes sense. I didn’t claim to have any direct evidence, but seriously. Look at how Republicans far out perform polls and projections. It makes no damn sense; the article even mentions it: “Tuesday’s statement marks the beginning of a years-long process to examine why, since 2012, most major elections have tilted against the party, despite favorable polling data before the vote. Up and down the ballot, Democrats have been, more often than not, shell-shocked by defeats in races they thought to be competitive, or narrower-than-expected, victories in contests they thought they led comfortably.”

How does this even pass the sniff test to you? There were several very close polling Senate races in 2020, specifically Iowa, Maine and North Carolina, in which it was a tossup or even a lean D and the GOP pulled it out? Even famously unpopular and deeply concerned Susan Collins? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_Senate_elections Then look first at the expected vote margins, then the actual outcome. How is it possible that the GOP outperforms the polls all the time? It doesn’t even make sense and I’m tired of people like you looking away saying there’s no evidence when there’s pretty damn good circumstantial evidence. I’m not claiming to be some high-clearance person in the government who is the only one to tell you about a satanic sex cabal in the government. So don’t dismiss me out of hand.

DP. You really do seem to believe your evidence-free fantasies. Here’s why Democrats are always “shell-shocked” when they get trounced at the polls: you actually believe your own hype. You sincerely believe that you *should* win because no one else could possibly be worthy or speak to Americans effectively. Susan Collins? She’s only “deeply unpopular” in your dreams. In reality, she’s a well-respected moderate who is independent enough not to vote along party lines. She also can’t be bullied liberals like you, who insist she vote your way. Remember - she is a Republican. Republicans don’t expect Democrats to vote for their issues - why do you?

And finally, as other posters have noted, many/most of these polls are sponsored by left-leaning organizations who very deliberately slant questions in such a way as to get favorable results for Democrats. And you fall for it, year in and year out. “But, but, the polls say...!!” There are enough independents in this country (thankfully) who will wait until all the information is in before deciding who to vote for. They aren’t the mindless “blue no matter who” twits who don’t have a critical thinking bone in their body.

You couldn’t be more wrong if you tried.

And my circumstantial evidence is great. It would be great if you were able to process what I wrote, but I see that you don’t even understand how polling works, so I’m not really expecting you to understand anything else, either.

[Anonymous]

The shy Trump voter idea doesn’t really hold water in terms of the Senate and House elections. The only two states that looked fishy in terms of way more Trump votes than expected were Texas and Florida. Texas is voter suppression and who knows what went on in Florida.

In Maine, it’s more likely the moderates decided to split the ticket voting for Biden because they hate Trump but not wanting too a high a democratic majority.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:The shy Trump voter idea doesn’t really hold water in terms of the Senate and House elections. The only two states that looked fishy in terms of way more Trump votes than expected were Texas and Florida. Texas is voter suppression and who knows what went on in Florida.

In Maine, it’s more likely the moderates decided to split the ticket voting for Biden because they hate Trump but not wanting too a high a democratic majority.

Call them "shy Trump voters" is misleading because it implies they are simply afraid to tell the truth. But their could be other things going on and it could affect other races. We are seeing that the polls are becoming less reliable and are so upset with this that we blame the population not the sample. Which is the most wrong thing you could do with any kind of sample. It's literally antiscience and you would know if we selecting colored balls from a jar instead of making political predictions.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I still feel deep down that R’s have been stealing elections for years.

And now they are suppressing votes by law

I said so on the first page and I stand by that.

Look at the Q nonsense, the centerpiece charge of which was that there was a cabal of all powerful Democrats who were trading kids around. Turns out there’s a cabal alright, but it’s Republicans. They are all projection. So their continued obsession with alleged election fraud strongly points the finger to them stealing elections across the country. I think 2020 was an absolute blowout win for the Democrats. I think Biden probably won closer to 90 million votes (if not more) and Trump probably closer to 65 million votes (and probably less). I think there is a solid Democratic majority in the Senate and I think we probably won a lot more state elections, too.

Ask yourself: why would the Democratic pollsters all be off? Does that even make sense? Contrary to the childish conservative belief (but I repeat myself) that pollsters want to steer people, they actually want to be as accurate as possible because that’s how pollsters keep a reputation for accuracy and how they stay in business. But if the GOP pollsters are all in on the GOP’s game, they can adjust their polls as necessary.

So this is what the liberal version of Q looks like ^^^. Wow.

Not really.

DP. I'm a Democrat and yeah it is. I love the 90-65 victory. But no evidence. Just because they are paranoid doesn't mean you aren't.

I don’t care if your name is Joe Biden. I’m not paranoid. What I say makes sense. I didn’t claim to have any direct evidence, but seriously. Look at how Republicans far out perform polls and projections. It makes no damn sense; the article even mentions it: “Tuesday’s statement marks the beginning of a years-long process to examine why, since 2012, most major elections have tilted against the party, despite favorable polling data before the vote. Up and down the ballot, Democrats have been, more often than not, shell-shocked by defeats in races they thought to be competitive, or narrower-than-expected, victories in contests they thought they led comfortably.”

How does this even pass the sniff test to you? There were several very close polling Senate races in 2020, specifically Iowa, Maine and North Carolina, in which it was a tossup or even a lean D and the GOP pulled it out? Even famously unpopular and deeply concerned Susan Collins? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_Senate_elections Then look first at the expected vote margins, then the actual outcome. How is it possible that the GOP outperforms the polls all the time? It doesn’t even make sense and I’m tired of people like you looking away saying there’s no evidence when there’s pretty damn good circumstantial evidence. I’m not claiming to be some high-clearance person in the government who is the only one to tell you about a satanic sex cabal in the government. So don’t dismiss me out of hand.

DP. You really do seem to believe your evidence-free fantasies. Here’s why Democrats are always “shell-shocked” when they get trounced at the polls: you actually believe your own hype. You sincerely believe that you *should* win because no one else could possibly be worthy or speak to Americans effectively. Susan Collins? She’s only “deeply unpopular” in your dreams. In reality, she’s a well-respected moderate who is independent enough not to vote along party lines. She also can’t be bullied liberals like you, who insist she vote your way. Remember - she is a Republican. Republicans don’t expect Democrats to vote for their issues - why do you?

And finally, as other posters have noted, many/most of these polls are sponsored by left-leaning organizations who very deliberately slant questions in such a way as to get favorable results for Democrats. And you fall for it, year in and year out. “But, but, the polls say...!!” There are enough independents in this country (thankfully) who will wait until all the information is in before deciding who to vote for. They aren’t the mindless “blue no matter who” twits who don’t have a critical thinking bone in their body.

You couldn’t be more wrong if you tried.

And my circumstantial evidence is great. It would be great if you were able to process what I wrote, but I see that you don’t even understand how polling works, so I’m not really expecting you to understand anything else, either.

Polls show 50% of Democrats lack epistemic humility.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I still feel deep down that R’s have been stealing elections for years.

And now they are suppressing votes by law

I said so on the first page and I stand by that.

Look at the Q nonsense, the centerpiece charge of which was that there was a cabal of all powerful Democrats who were trading kids around. Turns out there’s a cabal alright, but it’s Republicans. They are all projection. So their continued obsession with alleged election fraud strongly points the finger to them stealing elections across the country. I think 2020 was an absolute blowout win for the Democrats. I think Biden probably won closer to 90 million votes (if not more) and Trump probably closer to 65 million votes (and probably less). I think there is a solid Democratic majority in the Senate and I think we probably won a lot more state elections, too.

Ask yourself: why would the Democratic pollsters all be off? Does that even make sense? Contrary to the childish conservative belief (but I repeat myself) that pollsters want to steer people, they actually want to be as accurate as possible because that’s how pollsters keep a reputation for accuracy and how they stay in business. But if the GOP pollsters are all in on the GOP’s game, they can adjust their polls as necessary.

So this is what the liberal version of Q looks like ^^^. Wow.

Not really.

DP. I'm a Democrat and yeah it is. I love the 90-65 victory. But no evidence. Just because they are paranoid doesn't mean you aren't.

I don’t care if your name is Joe Biden. I’m not paranoid. What I say makes sense. I didn’t claim to have any direct evidence, but seriously. Look at how Republicans far out perform polls and projections. It makes no damn sense; the article even mentions it: “Tuesday’s statement marks the beginning of a years-long process to examine why, since 2012, most major elections have tilted against the party, despite favorable polling data before the vote. Up and down the ballot, Democrats have been, more often than not, shell-shocked by defeats in races they thought to be competitive, or narrower-than-expected, victories in contests they thought they led comfortably.”

How does this even pass the sniff test to you? There were several very close polling Senate races in 2020, specifically Iowa, Maine and North Carolina, in which it was a tossup or even a lean D and the GOP pulled it out? Even famously unpopular and deeply concerned Susan Collins? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_Senate_elections Then look first at the expected vote margins, then the actual outcome. How is it possible that the GOP outperforms the polls all the time? It doesn’t even make sense and I’m tired of people like you looking away saying there’s no evidence when there’s pretty damn good circumstantial evidence. I’m not claiming to be some high-clearance person in the government who is the only one to tell you about a satanic sex cabal in the government. So don’t dismiss me out of hand.

DP. You really do seem to believe your evidence-free fantasies. Here’s why Democrats are always “shell-shocked” when they get trounced at the polls: you actually believe your own hype. You sincerely believe that you *should* win because no one else could possibly be worthy or speak to Americans effectively. Susan Collins? She’s only “deeply unpopular” in your dreams. In reality, she’s a well-respected moderate who is independent enough not to vote along party lines. She also can’t be bullied liberals like you, who insist she vote your way. Remember - she is a Republican. Republicans don’t expect Democrats to vote for their issues - why do you?

And finally, as other posters have noted, many/most of these polls are sponsored by left-leaning organizations who very deliberately slant questions in such a way as to get favorable results for Democrats. And you fall for it, year in and year out. “But, but, the polls say...!!” There are enough independents in this country (thankfully) who will wait until all the information is in before deciding who to vote for. They aren’t the mindless “blue no matter who” twits who don’t have a critical thinking bone in their body.

You couldn’t be more wrong if you tried.

And my circumstantial evidence is great. It would be great if you were able to process what I wrote, but I see that you don’t even understand how polling works, so I’m not really expecting you to understand anything else, either.

Polls show 50% of Democrats lack epistemic humility.

Lol. First you go work on how and why polls are conducted, then we can talk about my humility.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I still feel deep down that R’s have been stealing elections for years.

And now they are suppressing votes by law

I said so on the first page and I stand by that.

Look at the Q nonsense, the centerpiece charge of which was that there was a cabal of all powerful Democrats who were trading kids around. Turns out there’s a cabal alright, but it’s Republicans. They are all projection. So their continued obsession with alleged election fraud strongly points the finger to them stealing elections across the country. I think 2020 was an absolute blowout win for the Democrats. I think Biden probably won closer to 90 million votes (if not more) and Trump probably closer to 65 million votes (and probably less). I think there is a solid Democratic majority in the Senate and I think we probably won a lot more state elections, too.

Ask yourself: why would the Democratic pollsters all be off? Does that even make sense? Contrary to the childish conservative belief (but I repeat myself) that pollsters want to steer people, they actually want to be as accurate as possible because that’s how pollsters keep a reputation for accuracy and how they stay in business. But if the GOP pollsters are all in on the GOP’s game, they can adjust their polls as necessary.

So this is what the liberal version of Q looks like ^^^. Wow.

Not really.

DP. I'm a Democrat and yeah it is. I love the 90-65 victory. But no evidence. Just because they are paranoid doesn't mean you aren't.

I don’t care if your name is Joe Biden. I’m not paranoid. What I say makes sense. I didn’t claim to have any direct evidence, but seriously. Look at how Republicans far out perform polls and projections. It makes no damn sense; the article even mentions it: “Tuesday’s statement marks the beginning of a years-long process to examine why, since 2012, most major elections have tilted against the party, despite favorable polling data before the vote. Up and down the ballot, Democrats have been, more often than not, shell-shocked by defeats in races they thought to be competitive, or narrower-than-expected, victories in contests they thought they led comfortably.”

How does this even pass the sniff test to you? There were several very close polling Senate races in 2020, specifically Iowa, Maine and North Carolina, in which it was a tossup or even a lean D and the GOP pulled it out? Even famously unpopular and deeply concerned Susan Collins? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_Senate_elections Then look first at the expected vote margins, then the actual outcome. How is it possible that the GOP outperforms the polls all the time? It doesn’t even make sense and I’m tired of people like you looking away saying there’s no evidence when there’s pretty damn good circumstantial evidence. I’m not claiming to be some high-clearance person in the government who is the only one to tell you about a satanic sex cabal in the government. So don’t dismiss me out of hand.

DP. You really do seem to believe your evidence-free fantasies. Here’s why Democrats are always “shell-shocked” when they get trounced at the polls: you actually believe your own hype. You sincerely believe that you *should* win because no one else could possibly be worthy or speak to Americans effectively. Susan Collins? She’s only “deeply unpopular” in your dreams. In reality, she’s a well-respected moderate who is independent enough not to vote along party lines. She also can’t be bullied liberals like you, who insist she vote your way. Remember - she is a Republican. Republicans don’t expect Democrats to vote for their issues - why do you?

And finally, as other posters have noted, many/most of these polls are sponsored by left-leaning organizations who very deliberately slant questions in such a way as to get favorable results for Democrats. And you fall for it, year in and year out. “But, but, the polls say...!!” There are enough independents in this country (thankfully) who will wait until all the information is in before deciding who to vote for. They aren’t the mindless “blue no matter who” twits who don’t have a critical thinking bone in their body.

You couldn’t be more wrong if you tried.

And my circumstantial evidence is great. It would be great if you were able to process what I wrote, but I see that you don’t even understand how polling works, so I’m not really expecting you to understand anything else, either.

Polls show 50% of Democrats lack epistemic humility.

Lol. First you go work on how and why polls are conducted, then we can talk about my humility.

My god. A legend in your own mind too.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I still feel deep down that R’s have been stealing elections for years.

And now they are suppressing votes by law

I said so on the first page and I stand by that.

Look at the Q nonsense, the centerpiece charge of which was that there was a cabal of all powerful Democrats who were trading kids around. Turns out there’s a cabal alright, but it’s Republicans. They are all projection. So their continued obsession with alleged election fraud strongly points the finger to them stealing elections across the country. I think 2020 was an absolute blowout win for the Democrats. I think Biden probably won closer to 90 million votes (if not more) and Trump probably closer to 65 million votes (and probably less). I think there is a solid Democratic majority in the Senate and I think we probably won a lot more state elections, too.

Ask yourself: why would the Democratic pollsters all be off? Does that even make sense? Contrary to the childish conservative belief (but I repeat myself) that pollsters want to steer people, they actually want to be as accurate as possible because that’s how pollsters keep a reputation for accuracy and how they stay in business. But if the GOP pollsters are all in on the GOP’s game, they can adjust their polls as necessary.

So this is what the liberal version of Q looks like ^^^. Wow.

Not really.

DP. I'm a Democrat and yeah it is. I love the 90-65 victory. But no evidence. Just because they are paranoid doesn't mean you aren't.

I don’t care if your name is Joe Biden. I’m not paranoid. What I say makes sense. I didn’t claim to have any direct evidence, but seriously. Look at how Republicans far out perform polls and projections. It makes no damn sense; the article even mentions it: “Tuesday’s statement marks the beginning of a years-long process to examine why, since 2012, most major elections have tilted against the party, despite favorable polling data before the vote. Up and down the ballot, Democrats have been, more often than not, shell-shocked by defeats in races they thought to be competitive, or narrower-than-expected, victories in contests they thought they led comfortably.”

How does this even pass the sniff test to you? There were several very close polling Senate races in 2020, specifically Iowa, Maine and North Carolina, in which it was a tossup or even a lean D and the GOP pulled it out? Even famously unpopular and deeply concerned Susan Collins? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_Senate_elections Then look first at the expected vote margins, then the actual outcome. How is it possible that the GOP outperforms the polls all the time? It doesn’t even make sense and I’m tired of people like you looking away saying there’s no evidence when there’s pretty damn good circumstantial evidence. I’m not claiming to be some high-clearance person in the government who is the only one to tell you about a satanic sex cabal in the government. So don’t dismiss me out of hand.

If your sample differs from the population at large, your sample is probably off, not the population.

Exactly this.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I still feel deep down that R’s have been stealing elections for years.

And now they are suppressing votes by law

I said so on the first page and I stand by that.

Look at the Q nonsense, the centerpiece charge of which was that there was a cabal of all powerful Democrats who were trading kids around. Turns out there’s a cabal alright, but it’s Republicans. They are all projection. So their continued obsession with alleged election fraud strongly points the finger to them stealing elections across the country. I think 2020 was an absolute blowout win for the Democrats. I think Biden probably won closer to 90 million votes (if not more) and Trump probably closer to 65 million votes (and probably less). I think there is a solid Democratic majority in the Senate and I think we probably won a lot more state elections, too.

Ask yourself: why would the Democratic pollsters all be off? Does that even make sense? Contrary to the childish conservative belief (but I repeat myself) that pollsters want to steer people, they actually want to be as accurate as possible because that’s how pollsters keep a reputation for accuracy and how they stay in business. But if the GOP pollsters are all in on the GOP’s game, they can adjust their polls as necessary.

So this is what the liberal version of Q looks like ^^^. Wow.

Not really.

DP. I'm a Democrat and yeah it is. I love the 90-65 victory. But no evidence. Just because they are paranoid doesn't mean you aren't.

I don’t care if your name is Joe Biden. I’m not paranoid. What I say makes sense. I didn’t claim to have any direct evidence, but seriously. Look at how Republicans far out perform polls and projections. It makes no damn sense; the article even mentions it: “Tuesday’s statement marks the beginning of a years-long process to examine why, since 2012, most major elections have tilted against the party, despite favorable polling data before the vote. Up and down the ballot, Democrats have been, more often than not, shell-shocked by defeats in races they thought to be competitive, or narrower-than-expected, victories in contests they thought they led comfortably.”

How does this even pass the sniff test to you? There were several very close polling Senate races in 2020, specifically Iowa, Maine and North Carolina, in which it was a tossup or even a lean D and the GOP pulled it out? Even famously unpopular and deeply concerned Susan Collins? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_Senate_elections Then look first at the expected vote margins, then the actual outcome. How is it possible that the GOP outperforms the polls all the time? It doesn’t even make sense and I’m tired of people like you looking away saying there’s no evidence when there’s pretty damn good circumstantial evidence. I’m not claiming to be some high-clearance person in the government who is the only one to tell you about a satanic sex cabal in the government. So don’t dismiss me out of hand.

DP. You really do seem to believe your evidence-free fantasies. Here’s why Democrats are always “shell-shocked” when they get trounced at the polls: you actually believe your own hype. You sincerely believe that you *should* win because no one else could possibly be worthy or speak to Americans effectively. Susan Collins? She’s only “deeply unpopular” in your dreams. In reality, she’s a well-respected moderate who is independent enough not to vote along party lines. She also can’t be bullied liberals like you, who insist she vote your way. Remember - she is a Republican. Republicans don’t expect Democrats to vote for their issues - why do you?

And finally, as other posters have noted, many/most of these polls are sponsored by left-leaning organizations who very deliberately slant questions in such a way as to get favorable results for Democrats. And you fall for it, year in and year out. “But, but, the polls say...!!” There are enough independents in this country (thankfully) who will wait until all the information is in before deciding who to vote for. They aren’t the mindless “blue no matter who” twits who don’t have a critical thinking bone in their body.

You couldn’t be more wrong if you tried.

And my circumstantial evidence is great. It would be great if you were able to process what I wrote, but I see that you don’t even understand how polling works, so I’m not really expecting you to understand anything else, either.

Polls show 50% of Democrats lack epistemic humility.

Understatement of the year!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I still feel deep down that R’s have been stealing elections for years.

And now they are suppressing votes by law

I said so on the first page and I stand by that.

Look at the Q nonsense, the centerpiece charge of which was that there was a cabal of all powerful Democrats who were trading kids around. Turns out there’s a cabal alright, but it’s Republicans. They are all projection. So their continued obsession with alleged election fraud strongly points the finger to them stealing elections across the country. I think 2020 was an absolute blowout win for the Democrats. I think Biden probably won closer to 90 million votes (if not more) and Trump probably closer to 65 million votes (and probably less). I think there is a solid Democratic majority in the Senate and I think we probably won a lot more state elections, too.

Ask yourself: why would the Democratic pollsters all be off? Does that even make sense? Contrary to the childish conservative belief (but I repeat myself) that pollsters want to steer people, they actually want to be as accurate as possible because that’s how pollsters keep a reputation for accuracy and how they stay in business. But if the GOP pollsters are all in on the GOP’s game, they can adjust their polls as necessary.

So this is what the liberal version of Q looks like ^^^. Wow.

Not really.

DP. I'm a Democrat and yeah it is. I love the 90-65 victory. But no evidence. Just because they are paranoid doesn't mean you aren't.

I don’t care if your name is Joe Biden. I’m not paranoid. What I say makes sense. I didn’t claim to have any direct evidence, but seriously. Look at how Republicans far out perform polls and projections. It makes no damn sense; the article even mentions it: “Tuesday’s statement marks the beginning of a years-long process to examine why, since 2012, most major elections have tilted against the party, despite favorable polling data before the vote. Up and down the ballot, Democrats have been, more often than not, shell-shocked by defeats in races they thought to be competitive, or narrower-than-expected, victories in contests they thought they led comfortably.”

How does this even pass the sniff test to you? There were several very close polling Senate races in 2020, specifically Iowa, Maine and North Carolina, in which it was a tossup or even a lean D and the GOP pulled it out? Even famously unpopular and deeply concerned Susan Collins? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_Senate_elections Then look first at the expected vote margins, then the actual outcome. How is it possible that the GOP outperforms the polls all the time? It doesn’t even make sense and I’m tired of people like you looking away saying there’s no evidence when there’s pretty damn good circumstantial evidence. I’m not claiming to be some high-clearance person in the government who is the only one to tell you about a satanic sex cabal in the government. So don’t dismiss me out of hand.

DP. You really do seem to believe your evidence-free fantasies. Here’s why Democrats are always “shell-shocked” when they get trounced at the polls: you actually believe your own hype. You sincerely believe that you *should* win because no one else could possibly be worthy or speak to Americans effectively. Susan Collins? She’s only “deeply unpopular” in your dreams. In reality, she’s a well-respected moderate who is independent enough not to vote along party lines. She also can’t be bullied liberals like you, who insist she vote your way. Remember - she is a Republican. Republicans don’t expect Democrats to vote for their issues - why do you?

And finally, as other posters have noted, many/most of these polls are sponsored by left-leaning organizations who very deliberately slant questions in such a way as to get favorable results for Democrats. And you fall for it, year in and year out. “But, but, the polls say...!!” There are enough independents in this country (thankfully) who will wait until all the information is in before deciding who to vote for. They aren’t the mindless “blue no matter who” twits who don’t have a critical thinking bone in their body.

You couldn’t be more wrong if you tried.

And my circumstantial evidence is great. It would be great if you were able to process what I wrote, but I see that you don’t even understand how polling works, so I’m not really expecting you to understand anything else, either.

Ah. So when someone disagrees with you, you accuse them of “not understanding how polling works.” Never change, arrogant liberal!

[Anonymous]

DP, but someone who has worked in polling/market research. The poster who babbled about all poll questions being slanted is just wrong. The isn’t how it works in reputable polling. Now, yes, there are “polls” that ask questions in a slanted way, but those aren’t being conducted by the established polling organizations.

Sample is and always has been a bit of a guessing game. You always have to weight samples based on best guesstimate of population. Good polling firms involve statisticians to help with this. But there is always a margin of error to try to account for the possible guesstimating errors.

Polling isn’t an exact science, but it also isn’t just people making up numbers and fielding biased questionnaires

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Ah. So when someone disagrees with you, you accuse them of “not understanding how polling works.” Never change, arrogant liberal!

But you don’t understand how polling works. You guys literally believe that pollsters will mock you for your beliefs and you imply that they’ll tell all your friends. Plus you think they’re purposely slanting questions and trying to steer how people answer. That’s not polling. You literally don’t understand how polling works. That’s not arrogance. You’re just wrong.

Furthermore:

Your side worked with Russia. Forgive me if I think Russia may have had a direct hand in 2016’s outcome.

[Anonymous]

OP, I very much agree with you and I’ve been saying this for months. There were several senate races in which the dem candidate had a clear lead in the polls going into Election Day and then somehow, all lost.
Biden also had a clear lead in both the general and the swing states.
My guess, someone wanted the GOP senators to win and tipped the balance for them but wouldn’t do it for Trump, not this time.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I still feel deep down that R’s have been stealing elections for years.

And now they are suppressing votes by law

I said so on the first page and I stand by that.

Look at the Q nonsense, the centerpiece charge of which was that there was a cabal of all powerful Democrats who were trading kids around. Turns out there’s a cabal alright, but it’s Republicans. They are all projection. So their continued obsession with alleged election fraud strongly points the finger to them stealing elections across the country. I think 2020 was an absolute blowout win for the Democrats. I think Biden probably won closer to 90 million votes (if not more) and Trump probably closer to 65 million votes (and probably less). I think there is a solid Democratic majority in the Senate and I think we probably won a lot more state elections, too.

Ask yourself: why would the Democratic pollsters all be off? Does that even make sense? Contrary to the childish conservative belief (but I repeat myself) that pollsters want to steer people, they actually want to be as accurate as possible because that’s how pollsters keep a reputation for accuracy and how they stay in business. But if the GOP pollsters are all in on the GOP’s game, they can adjust their polls as necessary.

So this is what the liberal version of Q looks like ^^^. Wow.

Not really.

DP. I'm a Democrat and yeah it is. I love the 90-65 victory. But no evidence. Just because they are paranoid doesn't mean you aren't.

I don’t care if your name is Joe Biden. I’m not paranoid. What I say makes sense. I didn’t claim to have any direct evidence, but seriously. Look at how Republicans far out perform polls and projections. It makes no damn sense; the article even mentions it: “Tuesday’s statement marks the beginning of a years-long process to examine why, since 2012, most major elections have tilted against the party, despite favorable polling data before the vote. Up and down the ballot, Democrats have been, more often than not, shell-shocked by defeats in races they thought to be competitive, or narrower-than-expected, victories in contests they thought they led comfortably.”

How does this even pass the sniff test to you? There were several very close polling Senate races in 2020, specifically Iowa, Maine and North Carolina, in which it was a tossup or even a lean D and the GOP pulled it out? Even famously unpopular and deeply concerned Susan Collins? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_Senate_elections Then look first at the expected vote margins, then the actual outcome. How is it possible that the GOP outperforms the polls all the time? It doesn’t even make sense and I’m tired of people like you looking away saying there’s no evidence when there’s pretty damn good circumstantial evidence. I’m not claiming to be some high-clearance person in the government who is the only one to tell you about a satanic sex cabal in the government. So don’t dismiss me out of hand.

If your sample differs from the population at large, your sample is probably off, not the population.

Exactly this.

+1

Every conservative on here has tried to explain that they would never answer a political poll (for many reasons) and all the liberals just refuse to accept it.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Ah. So when someone disagrees with you, you accuse them of “not understanding how polling works.” Never change, arrogant liberal!

But you don’t understand how polling works. You guys literally believe that pollsters will mock you for your beliefs and you imply that they’ll tell all your friends. Plus you think they’re purposely slanting questions and trying to steer how people answer. That’s not polling. You literally don’t understand how polling works. That’s not arrogance. You’re just wrong.

Furthermore:

Your side worked with Russia. Forgive me if I think Russia may have had a direct hand in 2016’s outcome.

I don't think they literally believe it. They are saying that a lot of people are uncomfortable with answering pollsters now and it's messing up data. They don't literally believe a pollster will yell at them, but they just don't trust them. It's a feeling not a factual inference. And not necessarily wrong. Most people won't talk to a pollster at all. Normal behavior now is not to answer polls, so they have to call 100 people to get one participant. That one is not necessarily representative of the 99 who didn't answer.

As for "purposely slanting" this does happen all the time in partisan polls that are released like normal polls. And the sponsors are news orgs like CNN who they also don't trust. How do you know their pollsters are doing it right? You don't really, you just trust that they have a good quality control process. But you can't verify their QC, so you don't really know.

This is part of the breakdown in social trust across society. People don't trust the government, the media, the corporations, the other party, the police, and each other. And they certainly they don't trust people who don't understand what they really mean and instead insult them for what they don't mean.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I still feel deep down that R’s have been stealing elections for years.

And now they are suppressing votes by law

I said so on the first page and I stand by that.

Look at the Q nonsense, the centerpiece charge of which was that there was a cabal of all powerful Democrats who were trading kids around. Turns out there’s a cabal alright, but it’s Republicans. They are all projection. So their continued obsession with alleged election fraud strongly points the finger to them stealing elections across the country. I think 2020 was an absolute blowout win for the Democrats. I think Biden probably won closer to 90 million votes (if not more) and Trump probably closer to 65 million votes (and probably less). I think there is a solid Democratic majority in the Senate and I think we probably won a lot more state elections, too.

Ask yourself: why would the Democratic pollsters all be off? Does that even make sense? Contrary to the childish conservative belief (but I repeat myself) that pollsters want to steer people, they actually want to be as accurate as possible because that’s how pollsters keep a reputation for accuracy and how they stay in business. But if the GOP pollsters are all in on the GOP’s game, they can adjust their polls as necessary.

So this is what the liberal version of Q looks like ^^^. Wow.

Not really.

DP. I'm a Democrat and yeah it is. I love the 90-65 victory. But no evidence. Just because they are paranoid doesn't mean you aren't.

I don’t care if your name is Joe Biden. I’m not paranoid. What I say makes sense. I didn’t claim to have any direct evidence, but seriously. Look at how Republicans far out perform polls and projections. It makes no damn sense; the article even mentions it: “Tuesday’s statement marks the beginning of a years-long process to examine why, since 2012, most major elections have tilted against the party, despite favorable polling data before the vote. Up and down the ballot, Democrats have been, more often than not, shell-shocked by defeats in races they thought to be competitive, or narrower-than-expected, victories in contests they thought they led comfortably.”

How does this even pass the sniff test to you? There were several very close polling Senate races in 2020, specifically Iowa, Maine and North Carolina, in which it was a tossup or even a lean D and the GOP pulled it out? Even famously unpopular and deeply concerned Susan Collins? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_Senate_elections Then look first at the expected vote margins, then the actual outcome. How is it possible that the GOP outperforms the polls all the time? It doesn’t even make sense and I’m tired of people like you looking away saying there’s no evidence when there’s pretty damn good circumstantial evidence. I’m not claiming to be some high-clearance person in the government who is the only one to tell you about a satanic sex cabal in the government. So don’t dismiss me out of hand.

If your sample differs from the population at large, your sample is probably off, not the population.

Exactly this.

+1

Every conservative on here has tried to explain that they would never answer a political poll (for many reasons) and all the liberals just refuse to accept it.

I stop calling myself a liberal because of this. I'm still a Democrat but I don't like how the left refuses to admit that they are not the majority and they aren't always right. They are the new Moral Minority, even more insufferable than Jerry Falwell was back in the day.