Dem pollsters acknowledge ‘major errors’ in 2020 polling

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Became convinced of the shy Trump voter in 2020. They aren't claiming to be Biden voters though, they are claiming to be undecided.

And many of them are. Or they simply have no desire to talk politics with someone who’s going to verbally pounce on them.

Or maybe, the GOP was so convinced there was election fraud because they were the ones doing it. Maybe that is why the election was so close. Without GOP voting fraud, it would have been a landslide defeat. I mean we all know that GOP fraud got Kemp elected in GA.

Don’t let all the noise fool you. It was a landslide defeat for Trump. The republicans down the ballot over performed but Trump lost clearly and soundly. He just made so much noise after the fact that we forget that the election was not even a bit close.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:DH always picks on pollsters who call. He feigns his ability to speak English, asks a million questions to them, and then lies. It’s great fun to listen to! He does the same to telemarketers.

Yes, it is very funny to mess with minimum wage workers. Do really you think the people whose names are on the polls are calling you?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Became convinced of the shy Trump voter in 2020. They aren't claiming to be Biden voters though, they are claiming to be undecided.

And many of them are. Or they simply have no desire to talk politics with someone who’s going to verbally pounce on them.

Or maybe, the GOP was so convinced there was election fraud because they were the ones doing it. Maybe that is why the election was so close. Without GOP voting fraud, it would have been a landslide defeat. I mean we all know that GOP fraud got Kemp elected in GA.

That makes sense. The Trump voters I know are welfare cheaters. Takes one to know one.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I still feel deep down that R’s have been stealing elections for years.

And now they are suppressing votes by law

I said so on the first page and I stand by that.

Look at the Q nonsense, the centerpiece charge of which was that there was a cabal of all powerful Democrats who were trading kids around. Turns out there’s a cabal alright, but it’s Republicans. They are all projection. So their continued obsession with alleged election fraud strongly points the finger to them stealing elections across the country. I think 2020 was an absolute blowout win for the Democrats. I think Biden probably won closer to 90 million votes (if not more) and Trump probably closer to 65 million votes (and probably less). I think there is a solid Democratic majority in the Senate and I think we probably won a lot more state elections, too.

Ask yourself: why would the Democratic pollsters all be off? Does that even make sense? Contrary to the childish conservative belief (but I repeat myself) that pollsters want to steer people, they actually want to be as accurate as possible because that’s how pollsters keep a reputation for accuracy and how they stay in business. But if the GOP pollsters are all in on the GOP’s game, they can adjust their polls as necessary.

So this is what the liberal version of Q looks like ^^^. Wow.

Not really.

DP. I'm a Democrat and yeah it is. I love the 90-65 victory. But no evidence. Just because they are paranoid doesn't mean you aren't.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:DH always picks on pollsters who call. He feigns his ability to speak English, asks a million questions to them, and then lies. It’s great fun to listen to! He does the same to telemarketers.

Yes, it is very funny to mess with minimum wage workers. Do really you think the people whose names are on the polls are calling you?

Powerless people - and straight up dill-holes - love to be cruel to those who they think are even lower than themselves. Then their stupid spouses come here and brag about it. Very sad. Get a life, dummies.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:"According to Democrats involved with the internal review, Tuesday’s statement marks the beginning of a years-long process to examine why, since 2012, most major elections have tilted against the party, despite favorable polling data before the vote. Up and down the ballot, Democrats have been, more often than not, shell-shocked by defeats in races they thought to be competitive, or narrower-than-expected, victories in contests they thought they led comfortably.
....

The memo floats at least three possible causes: late movement toward Trump and Republican candidates that polls conducted in the run-up to the election failed to catch, the Covid pandemic causing people who stayed home to answer the phone at a greater rate than those who did not follow restrictions, and the decline of social trust and faith in institutions.

But there’s little clarity about how significant each of those hypotheses was."

What happen to the independent polls? They were also way off.

https://www.politico.com/news/2021/04/13/dems-polling-failure-481044

More people get their news from the internet and social media.
More people share their news on the internet and social media.
People want to look like good and morally right people so they say what is popular, not what they think.
This leads to an inflated sense of what people value and pollsters start off with that inflated sense.
The skew their asks to people who they believe will give them the right answers. It's subtle. They do it once or twice and don't even realize it. They want a positive response after a few negatives.
They can't be wrong because they have see in on the internet and social media.
Then they start to skew their questions to get more favorable responses. Again it's subtle.

[RedTailHawk]

I think Jenny Cohn's Twitter is a good place for learning more on the election fraud aspect of this. I'm not saying this accounts for the polling problems but it makes sense to me that election security could be a contributing factor.
Timeline summary at https://twitter.com/jennycohn1/status/1379533252730396672



There's a whole lot more in her Twitter feed, for example:
https://twitter.com/jennycohn1/status/1369480895841804289 (ES&S conducting it's own hash validation testing)
https://twitter.com/jennycohn1/status/1369013739865870337 (more on ES&S software in TX)
https://twitter.com/jennycohn1/status/1382069133198589959 (modems in ES&S machines)
https://twitter.com/jennycohn1/status/1381778422259535875 (Russian breach of FL election networks)
https://twitter.com/AlexandraChalup/status/1124712657578283008 (anomalies in PA's 2016 results)

[Anonymous]

They are suppressing absentee/paper ballots because they can’t cheat them

It is right there in your face, yet you refuse to see it

Republicans cheat to win. Always.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I still feel deep down that R’s have been stealing elections for years.

And now they are suppressing votes by law

I said so on the first page and I stand by that.

Look at the Q nonsense, the centerpiece charge of which was that there was a cabal of all powerful Democrats who were trading kids around. Turns out there’s a cabal alright, but it’s Republicans. They are all projection. So their continued obsession with alleged election fraud strongly points the finger to them stealing elections across the country. I think 2020 was an absolute blowout win for the Democrats. I think Biden probably won closer to 90 million votes (if not more) and Trump probably closer to 65 million votes (and probably less). I think there is a solid Democratic majority in the Senate and I think we probably won a lot more state elections, too.

Ask yourself: why would the Democratic pollsters all be off? Does that even make sense? Contrary to the childish conservative belief (but I repeat myself) that pollsters want to steer people, they actually want to be as accurate as possible because that’s how pollsters keep a reputation for accuracy and how they stay in business. But if the GOP pollsters are all in on the GOP’s game, they can adjust their polls as necessary.

So this is what the liberal version of Q looks like ^^^. Wow.

Not really.

DP. I'm a Democrat and yeah it is. I love the 90-65 victory. But no evidence. Just because they are paranoid doesn't mean you aren't.

I don’t care if your name is Joe Biden. I’m not paranoid. What I say makes sense. I didn’t claim to have any direct evidence, but seriously. Look at how Republicans far out perform polls and projections. It makes no damn sense; the article even mentions it: “Tuesday’s statement marks the beginning of a years-long process to examine why, since 2012, most major elections have tilted against the party, despite favorable polling data before the vote. Up and down the ballot, Democrats have been, more often than not, shell-shocked by defeats in races they thought to be competitive, or narrower-than-expected, victories in contests they thought they led comfortably.”

How does this even pass the sniff test to you? There were several very close polling Senate races in 2020, specifically Iowa, Maine and North Carolina, in which it was a tossup or even a lean D and the GOP pulled it out? Even famously unpopular and deeply concerned Susan Collins? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_Senate_elections Then look first at the expected vote margins, then the actual outcome. How is it possible that the GOP outperforms the polls all the time? It doesn’t even make sense and I’m tired of people like you looking away saying there’s no evidence when there’s pretty damn good circumstantial evidence. I’m not claiming to be some high-clearance person in the government who is the only one to tell you about a satanic sex cabal in the government. So don’t dismiss me out of hand.

[Anonymous]

RedTailHawk wrote:I think Jenny Cohn's Twitter is a good place for learning more on the election fraud aspect of this. I'm not saying this accounts for the polling problems but it makes sense to me that election security could be a contributing factor.
Timeline summary at https://twitter.com/jennycohn1/status/1379533252730396672



There's a whole lot more in her Twitter feed, for example:
https://twitter.com/jennycohn1/status/1369480895841804289 (ES&S conducting it's own hash validation testing)
https://twitter.com/jennycohn1/status/1369013739865870337 (more on ES&S software in TX)
https://twitter.com/jennycohn1/status/1382069133198589959 (modems in ES&S machines)
https://twitter.com/jennycohn1/status/1381778422259535875 (Russian breach of FL election networks)
https://twitter.com/AlexandraChalup/status/1124712657578283008 (anomalies in PA's 2016 results)

21:29 again. This is horrifying and exactly what I’m talking about.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:All polls are off largely due to cell phones and anti spam restrictions. The calls get blocked. Pollsters can’t really target where the person is anymore as people keep their area code when they move. They are using sample sizes far too small and they know it but want the money.

Mail in voting really skewed any polling data occurring on Election Day.

Voter suppression doesn’t get captured by pollsters. Someone may very well be likely to vote but when they go and realize it’s a two hour drive to a drop box or eight hour wait in line it’s too much.

This. I live in D.C. but have had the same area code from my childhood region for life.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I still feel deep down that R’s have been stealing elections for years.

And now they are suppressing votes by law

I said so on the first page and I stand by that.

Look at the Q nonsense, the centerpiece charge of which was that there was a cabal of all powerful Democrats who were trading kids around. Turns out there’s a cabal alright, but it’s Republicans. They are all projection. So their continued obsession with alleged election fraud strongly points the finger to them stealing elections across the country. I think 2020 was an absolute blowout win for the Democrats. I think Biden probably won closer to 90 million votes (if not more) and Trump probably closer to 65 million votes (and probably less). I think there is a solid Democratic majority in the Senate and I think we probably won a lot more state elections, too.

Ask yourself: why would the Democratic pollsters all be off? Does that even make sense? Contrary to the childish conservative belief (but I repeat myself) that pollsters want to steer people, they actually want to be as accurate as possible because that’s how pollsters keep a reputation for accuracy and how they stay in business. But if the GOP pollsters are all in on the GOP’s game, they can adjust their polls as necessary.

So this is what the liberal version of Q looks like ^^^. Wow.

Not really.

Yes, really and truly. You are blinded to your own insanity.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I still feel deep down that R’s have been stealing elections for years.

And now they are suppressing votes by law

I said so on the first page and I stand by that.

Look at the Q nonsense, the centerpiece charge of which was that there was a cabal of all powerful Democrats who were trading kids around. Turns out there’s a cabal alright, but it’s Republicans. They are all projection. So their continued obsession with alleged election fraud strongly points the finger to them stealing elections across the country. I think 2020 was an absolute blowout win for the Democrats. I think Biden probably won closer to 90 million votes (if not more) and Trump probably closer to 65 million votes (and probably less). I think there is a solid Democratic majority in the Senate and I think we probably won a lot more state elections, too.

Ask yourself: why would the Democratic pollsters all be off? Does that even make sense? Contrary to the childish conservative belief (but I repeat myself) that pollsters want to steer people, they actually want to be as accurate as possible because that’s how pollsters keep a reputation for accuracy and how they stay in business. But if the GOP pollsters are all in on the GOP’s game, they can adjust their polls as necessary.

So this is what the liberal version of Q looks like ^^^. Wow.

Not really.

DP. I'm a Democrat and yeah it is. I love the 90-65 victory. But no evidence. Just because they are paranoid doesn't mean you aren't.

I don’t care if your name is Joe Biden. I’m not paranoid. What I say makes sense. I didn’t claim to have any direct evidence, but seriously. Look at how Republicans far out perform polls and projections. It makes no damn sense; the article even mentions it: “Tuesday’s statement marks the beginning of a years-long process to examine why, since 2012, most major elections have tilted against the party, despite favorable polling data before the vote. Up and down the ballot, Democrats have been, more often than not, shell-shocked by defeats in races they thought to be competitive, or narrower-than-expected, victories in contests they thought they led comfortably.”

How does this even pass the sniff test to you? There were several very close polling Senate races in 2020, specifically Iowa, Maine and North Carolina, in which it was a tossup or even a lean D and the GOP pulled it out? Even famously unpopular and deeply concerned Susan Collins? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_Senate_elections Then look first at the expected vote margins, then the actual outcome. How is it possible that the GOP outperforms the polls all the time? It doesn’t even make sense and I’m tired of people like you looking away saying there’s no evidence when there’s pretty damn good circumstantial evidence. I’m not claiming to be some high-clearance person in the government who is the only one to tell you about a satanic sex cabal in the government. So don’t dismiss me out of hand.

DP. You really do seem to believe your evidence-free fantasies. Here’s why Democrats are always “shell-shocked” when they get trounced at the polls: you actually believe your own hype. You sincerely believe that you *should* win because no one else could possibly be worthy or speak to Americans effectively. Susan Collins? She’s only “deeply unpopular” in your dreams. In reality, she’s a well-respected moderate who is independent enough not to vote along party lines. She also can’t be bullied liberals like you, who insist she vote your way. Remember - she is a Republican. Republicans don’t expect Democrats to vote for their issues - why do you?

And finally, as other posters have noted, many/most of these polls are sponsored by left-leaning organizations who very deliberately slant questions in such a way as to get favorable results for Democrats. And you fall for it, year in and year out. “But, but, the polls say...!!” There are enough independents in this country (thankfully) who will wait until all the information is in before deciding who to vote for. They aren’t the mindless “blue no matter who” twits who don’t have a critical thinking bone in their body.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I still feel deep down that R’s have been stealing elections for years.

And now they are suppressing votes by law

I said so on the first page and I stand by that.

Look at the Q nonsense, the centerpiece charge of which was that there was a cabal of all powerful Democrats who were trading kids around. Turns out there’s a cabal alright, but it’s Republicans. They are all projection. So their continued obsession with alleged election fraud strongly points the finger to them stealing elections across the country. I think 2020 was an absolute blowout win for the Democrats. I think Biden probably won closer to 90 million votes (if not more) and Trump probably closer to 65 million votes (and probably less). I think there is a solid Democratic majority in the Senate and I think we probably won a lot more state elections, too.

Ask yourself: why would the Democratic pollsters all be off? Does that even make sense? Contrary to the childish conservative belief (but I repeat myself) that pollsters want to steer people, they actually want to be as accurate as possible because that’s how pollsters keep a reputation for accuracy and how they stay in business. But if the GOP pollsters are all in on the GOP’s game, they can adjust their polls as necessary.

So this is what the liberal version of Q looks like ^^^. Wow.

Not really.

DP. I'm a Democrat and yeah it is. I love the 90-65 victory. But no evidence. Just because they are paranoid doesn't mean you aren't.

I don’t care if your name is Joe Biden. I’m not paranoid. What I say makes sense. I didn’t claim to have any direct evidence, but seriously. Look at how Republicans far out perform polls and projections. It makes no damn sense; the article even mentions it: “Tuesday’s statement marks the beginning of a years-long process to examine why, since 2012, most major elections have tilted against the party, despite favorable polling data before the vote. Up and down the ballot, Democrats have been, more often than not, shell-shocked by defeats in races they thought to be competitive, or narrower-than-expected, victories in contests they thought they led comfortably.”

How does this even pass the sniff test to you? There were several very close polling Senate races in 2020, specifically Iowa, Maine and North Carolina, in which it was a tossup or even a lean D and the GOP pulled it out? Even famously unpopular and deeply concerned Susan Collins? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_Senate_elections Then look first at the expected vote margins, then the actual outcome. How is it possible that the GOP outperforms the polls all the time? It doesn’t even make sense and I’m tired of people like you looking away saying there’s no evidence when there’s pretty damn good circumstantial evidence. I’m not claiming to be some high-clearance person in the government who is the only one to tell you about a satanic sex cabal in the government. So don’t dismiss me out of hand.

If your sample differs from the population at large, your sample is probably off, not the population.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I still feel deep down that R’s have been stealing elections for years.

And now they are suppressing votes by law

I said so on the first page and I stand by that.

Look at the Q nonsense, the centerpiece charge of which was that there was a cabal of all powerful Democrats who were trading kids around. Turns out there’s a cabal alright, but it’s Republicans. They are all projection. So their continued obsession with alleged election fraud strongly points the finger to them stealing elections across the country. I think 2020 was an absolute blowout win for the Democrats. I think Biden probably won closer to 90 million votes (if not more) and Trump probably closer to 65 million votes (and probably less). I think there is a solid Democratic majority in the Senate and I think we probably won a lot more state elections, too.

Ask yourself: why would the Democratic pollsters all be off? Does that even make sense? Contrary to the childish conservative belief (but I repeat myself) that pollsters want to steer people, they actually want to be as accurate as possible because that’s how pollsters keep a reputation for accuracy and how they stay in business. But if the GOP pollsters are all in on the GOP’s game, they can adjust their polls as necessary.

So this is what the liberal version of Q looks like ^^^. Wow.

Not really.

DP. I'm a Democrat and yeah it is. I love the 90-65 victory. But no evidence. Just because they are paranoid doesn't mean you aren't.

I don’t care if your name is Joe Biden. I’m not paranoid. What I say makes sense. I didn’t claim to have any direct evidence, but seriously. Look at how Republicans far out perform polls and projections. It makes no damn sense; the article even mentions it: “Tuesday’s statement marks the beginning of a years-long process to examine why, since 2012, most major elections have tilted against the party, despite favorable polling data before the vote. Up and down the ballot, Democrats have been, more often than not, shell-shocked by defeats in races they thought to be competitive, or narrower-than-expected, victories in contests they thought they led comfortably.”

How does this even pass the sniff test to you? There were several very close polling Senate races in 2020, specifically Iowa, Maine and North Carolina, in which it was a tossup or even a lean D and the GOP pulled it out? Even famously unpopular and deeply concerned Susan Collins? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_Senate_elections Then look first at the expected vote margins, then the actual outcome. How is it possible that the GOP outperforms the polls all the time? It doesn’t even make sense and I’m tired of people like you looking away saying there’s no evidence when there’s pretty damn good circumstantial evidence. I’m not claiming to be some high-clearance person in the government who is the only one to tell you about a satanic sex cabal in the government. So don’t dismiss me out of hand.

DP. You really do seem to believe your evidence-free fantasies. Here’s why Democrats are always “shell-shocked” when they get trounced at the polls: you actually believe your own hype. You sincerely believe that you *should* win because no one else could possibly be worthy or speak to Americans effectively. Susan Collins? She’s only “deeply unpopular” in your dreams. In reality, she’s a well-respected moderate who is independent enough not to vote along party lines. She also can’t be bullied liberals like you, who insist she vote your way. Remember - she is a Republican. Republicans don’t expect Democrats to vote for their issues - why do you?

And finally, as other posters have noted, many/most of these polls are sponsored by left-leaning organizations who very deliberately slant questions in such a way as to get favorable results for Democrats. And you fall for it, year in and year out. “But, but, the polls say...!!” There are enough independents in this country (thankfully) who will wait until all the information is in before deciding who to vote for. They aren’t the mindless “blue no matter who” twits who don’t have a critical thinking bone in their body.

BRAVO!!!