Dem pollsters acknowledge ‘major errors’ in 2020 polling

[Anonymous]

"According to Democrats involved with the internal review, Tuesday’s statement marks the beginning of a years-long process to examine why, since 2012, most major elections have tilted against the party, despite favorable polling data before the vote. Up and down the ballot, Democrats have been, more often than not, shell-shocked by defeats in races they thought to be competitive, or narrower-than-expected, victories in contests they thought they led comfortably.
....

The memo floats at least three possible causes: late movement toward Trump and Republican candidates that polls conducted in the run-up to the election failed to catch, the Covid pandemic causing people who stayed home to answer the phone at a greater rate than those who did not follow restrictions, and the decline of social trust and faith in institutions.

But there’s little clarity about how significant each of those hypotheses was."

What happen to the independent polls? They were also way off.

https://www.politico.com/news/2021/04/13/dems-polling-failure-481044

[Anonymous]

well this does seem to fall in the category of "duh".

Dems have underperformed the polls - that is not in dispute. Good they are trying to figure out what the cause of error is.

[Anonymous]

Doesn’t the media play into the razor thin margins. Polls tilt one way, media spins to the other side. Keeping it razor thin keeps eyeballs on screens. It’s just too hard to believe that elections are always so close to 50/50.

[Anonymous]

All polls are off largely due to cell phones and anti spam restrictions. The calls get blocked. Pollsters can’t really target where the person is anymore as people keep their area code when they move. They are using sample sizes far too small and they know it but want the money.

Mail in voting really skewed any polling data occurring on Election Day.

Voter suppression doesn’t get captured by pollsters. Someone may very well be likely to vote but when they go and realize it’s a two hour drive to a drop box or eight hour wait in line it’s too much.

[Anonymous]

DH always picks on pollsters who call. He feigns his ability to speak English, asks a million questions to them, and then lies. It’s great fun to listen to! He does the same to telemarketers.

[Anonymous]

Or perhaps the counts were changed and the polling was accurate.

ES&S machine flaws seem to indicate the probability of this.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Or perhaps the counts were changed and the polling was accurate.

ES&S machine flaws seem to indicate the probability of this.

Sorry, given the GOP penchant for projection, their insistence that the 2020 election wasn’t safe tells me, yeah. The GOP probably stole a bunch more elections.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Or perhaps the counts were changed and the polling was accurate.

ES&S machine flaws seem to indicate the probability of this.

or perhaps pigs fly and Trump is an honest and never lies.

The courts (99% of them) also disagrees with you.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:well this does seem to fall in the category of "duh".

Dems have underperformed the polls - that is not in dispute. Good they are trying to figure out what the cause of error is.

Seriously. Dems are just now aware there’s an issue in their polling? That makes me laugh. For one, most Republicans don’t bother to participate in polls, whereas Democrats get giddy when asked to participate. It’s really odd.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:All polls are off largely due to cell phones and anti spam restrictions. The calls get blocked. Pollsters can’t really target where the person is anymore as people keep their area code when they move. They are using sample sizes far too small and they know it but want the money.

Mail in voting really skewed any polling data occurring on Election Day.

Voter suppression doesn’t get captured by pollsters. Someone may very well be likely to vote but when they go and realize it’s a two hour drive to a drop box or eight hour wait in line it’s too much.

Who answers phone calls from pollsters in the first place? Lonely people, I suppose.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Or perhaps the counts were changed and the polling was accurate.

ES&S machine flaws seem to indicate the probability of this.

or perhaps pigs fly and Trump is an honest and never lies.

The courts (99% of them) also disagrees with you.

ES&S machines are different than Dominion.

No paper trail
Internet connected

There are a lot of issues with them.

[Anonymous]

Became convinced of the shy Trump voter in 2020. They aren't claiming to be Biden voters though, they are claiming to be undecided.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:well this does seem to fall in the category of "duh".

Dems have underperformed the polls - that is not in dispute. Good they are trying to figure out what the cause of error is.

Seriously. Dems are just now aware there’s an issue in their polling? That makes me laugh. For one, most Republicans don’t bother to participate in polls, whereas Democrats get giddy when asked to participate. It’s really odd.

Democrats need validation from the mob to feel powerful.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:well this does seem to fall in the category of "duh".

Dems have underperformed the polls - that is not in dispute. Good they are trying to figure out what the cause of error is.

Seriously. Dems are just now aware there’s an issue in their polling? That makes me laugh. For one, most Republicans don’t bother to participate in polls, whereas Democrats get giddy when asked to participate. It’s really odd.

Democrats need validation from the mob to feel powerful.

Do we? I thought we needed the White House the House and teh Senate to feel powerful

Huh

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Became convinced of the shy Trump voter in 2020. They aren't claiming to be Biden voters though, they are claiming to be undecided.

And many of them are. Or they simply have no desire to talk politics with someone who’s going to verbally pounce on them.