Predictions for full time in person in the Fall please

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I think PK-5 will be FT in person and that any school that struggles to handle that will be in trouble with parents and DCPS (including charters).

I think MS and HS are going to be tricky and that MS in particular is going to prove problematic because kids normally switch classrooms and participate in more specialized classes and none of those kids will be able to vaccinate by September. I could easily see MS and HS being hybrid in the fall but I think there will be enormous pressure to offer as much in person as possible.

I've heard a number of well-respected epidemiologists and virologists talk about how younger kids can be well protected from the virus before vaccination because if teachers and parents are vaccinated it creates an umbrella of protection for these kids who spend all of their time with vaccinated adults. It's a harder question with older children. 16 and up will be able to vaccinate by September, but no one else will. Plus kids this age are more social and independent and that's going to impact trust by the teacher's union as well as families who are happy with DL and reluctant to return. And you need those groups on board.

But if the parents of middle schoolers are vaccinated, then why would they worry about their middle schoolers? The chances of Covid harming them are lower than the flu. How did these parents ever send their kids to school?

I think the issue is they are in that brackish age of getting Covid and getting sick and not getting vaxxed. So 6th and 7th maybe no issue but 8th?

If the vax goes down to age 12 by the fall then I don't see why MS wouldn't open normally.

I do think we will see the pediatric vax sooner than we think. I'm prepping my kid mentally to be jabbed.

But middle schoolers' risk of getting severely sick or dying from Covid is lower than it is for the flu (despite the flu vaccine). So this is just not logical.

Long term effects aren’t fully known. Doctors have seen increase in long term problems in healthy people (even teens) with mild covid. For example: https://www.lung.org/blog/long-term-covid-19-effects

You are so dismissive of the unknown.

No, I am choosing to be rational and am weighing the risks (I do tend to be a worrier, but I have learned to fight that tendency when it really counts). "One teenager's story" (plus other anecdotal reports) is not going to make me decide that this potential but likely low risk outweighs the definitive and significant risks of further deprivation of in-person school for millions of teenagers. I'm also following the discussion of Covid risks in other countries, and notice that these kinds of stories and potential risks are not hyped nearly as much anywhere as they are here, and don't determine policy in other countries.

No, you aren’t a worrier if you dismiss this as just “one teenager’s story.” You should know after doctors do not know enough about the long term effects. That’s not anecdotal! You got some serious Dunning-Kruger Effect going on!

Dunning Kruger right back atcha, if you think you can judge from my post that I must not be a worrier (trust me, I am), or how well I am equipped to assess risks (you know nothing about my professional background). And it sounds like you would diagnose public health experts around the world with the same limitations, as despite the existing unknowns, almost none of them are recommending that teens be denied access to proper schooling until they can be vaccinated.

You don’t have a job. You’re an angry person. All you do is spend your days b*tching about your kids being home in the form of lashing out at teachers, unions, and politicians. You’re a tiny person with a lot of rage.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I think PK-5 will be FT in person and that any school that struggles to handle that will be in trouble with parents and DCPS (including charters).

I think MS and HS are going to be tricky and that MS in particular is going to prove problematic because kids normally switch classrooms and participate in more specialized classes and none of those kids will be able to vaccinate by September. I could easily see MS and HS being hybrid in the fall but I think there will be enormous pressure to offer as much in person as possible.

I've heard a number of well-respected epidemiologists and virologists talk about how younger kids can be well protected from the virus before vaccination because if teachers and parents are vaccinated it creates an umbrella of protection for these kids who spend all of their time with vaccinated adults. It's a harder question with older children. 16 and up will be able to vaccinate by September, but no one else will. Plus kids this age are more social and independent and that's going to impact trust by the teacher's union as well as families who are happy with DL and reluctant to return. And you need those groups on board.

But if the parents of middle schoolers are vaccinated, then why would they worry about their middle schoolers? The chances of Covid harming them are lower than the flu. How did these parents ever send their kids to school?

I think the issue is they are in that brackish age of getting Covid and getting sick and not getting vaxxed. So 6th and 7th maybe no issue but 8th?

If the vax goes down to age 12 by the fall then I don't see why MS wouldn't open normally.

I do think we will see the pediatric vax sooner than we think. I'm prepping my kid mentally to be jabbed.

But middle schoolers' risk of getting severely sick or dying from Covid is lower than it is for the flu (despite the flu vaccine). So this is just not logical.

Long term effects aren’t fully known. Doctors have seen increase in long term problems in healthy people (even teens) with mild covid. For example: https://www.lung.org/blog/long-term-covid-19-effects

You are so dismissive of the unknown.

No, I am choosing to be rational and am weighing the risks (I do tend to be a worrier, but I have learned to fight that tendency when it really counts). "One teenager's story" (plus other anecdotal reports) is not going to make me decide that this potential but likely low risk outweighs the definitive and significant risks of further deprivation of in-person school for millions of teenagers. I'm also following the discussion of Covid risks in other countries, and notice that these kinds of stories and potential risks are not hyped nearly as much anywhere as they are here, and don't determine policy in other countries.

No, you aren’t a worrier if you dismiss this as just “one teenager’s story.” You should know after doctors do not know enough about the long term effects. That’s not anecdotal! You got some serious Dunning-Kruger Effect going on!

Dunning Kruger right back atcha, if you think you can judge from my post that I must not be a worrier (trust me, I am), or how well I am equipped to assess risks (you know nothing about my professional background). And it sounds like you would diagnose public health experts around the world with the same limitations, as despite the existing unknowns, almost none of them are recommending that teens be denied access to proper schooling until they can be vaccinated.

You don’t have a job. You’re an angry person. All you do is spend your days b*tching about your kids being home in the form of lashing out at teachers, unions, and politicians. You’re a tiny person with a lot of rage.

Um, no. But keep demonstrating you don't have any real arguments or data by resorting to ad hominem attacks. This one was exemplary, compiling all your assumptions and rage against those who think schools should open into one post.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:From the above thread:

Here is a recent quote from the DME. Compared to other districts DCPS is much more non committal about the fall.

"We also believe and, I know I personally think this, the virus is insidious and we have no idea what the world will look like in September. We do know that there will be no child vaccine, probably, by then and so we need to prepare for a September that is not necessarily going to be normal. So we should be preparing for a September that could have some version of hybrid or virtual ongoing. So we also think it's important that we continue to support our teachers who are at the center of this endeavor as they continue strengthening their virtual education skills.”

(https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BRjt5FDgYuE&feature=youtu.be&ab_channel=DCSBOE at 8:00)

I was the one who posted this. I still hope that we will come to his senses. I hope he just said this without thinking it through.

Between things like that, and various reports that charters have heard from OSSE to prepare for hybrid in the fall, I don't have particularly high hopes for full-time in-person. Particularly face-to-face with teachers.

Also, someone posted on DCUM that Wilson's principal (I think?) said they were preparing for full time in the fall, so I hope that I'm wrong.

Where did you hear OSSE told charters to prepare for hybrid? Can you post that?

I'm PP. It wasn't ALL charters, it was individuals relaying what they'd heard at their individual charters. It's somewhere on DCUM....let me try and find them....

Ok, here's one where someone's talking about what their charter admin is saying: https://www.dcurbanmom.com/jforum/posts/list/105/953773.page#19403096

There's this one, too: https://www.dcurbanmom.com/jforum/posts/list/955831.page

There were a couple other comments from people at charters; those might be all one charter, who knows.

As you might imagine, I am a bit nervous about Fall and am trying desperately to get any info. It would be very very helpful if the Mayor or BOE would say ANYTHING SUBSTANTIVE about the fall.

What chancellor said a few days ago was that DCPS is planning concurrently for all scenarios and will decide on one when the health situation becomes clearer

I don’t know. I would love that info. Please provide a link.

Did you mean that as a gotcha? I’m lost. Is this Jeopardy?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I think PK-5 will be FT in person and that any school that struggles to handle that will be in trouble with parents and DCPS (including charters).

I think MS and HS are going to be tricky and that MS in particular is going to prove problematic because kids normally switch classrooms and participate in more specialized classes and none of those kids will be able to vaccinate by September. I could easily see MS and HS being hybrid in the fall but I think there will be enormous pressure to offer as much in person as possible.

I've heard a number of well-respected epidemiologists and virologists talk about how younger kids can be well protected from the virus before vaccination because if teachers and parents are vaccinated it creates an umbrella of protection for these kids who spend all of their time with vaccinated adults. It's a harder question with older children. 16 and up will be able to vaccinate by September, but no one else will. Plus kids this age are more social and independent and that's going to impact trust by the teacher's union as well as families who are happy with DL and reluctant to return. And you need those groups on board.

But if the parents of middle schoolers are vaccinated, then why would they worry about their middle schoolers? The chances of Covid harming them are lower than the flu. How did these parents ever send their kids to school?

I think the issue is they are in that brackish age of getting Covid and getting sick and not getting vaxxed. So 6th and 7th maybe no issue but 8th?

If the vax goes down to age 12 by the fall then I don't see why MS wouldn't open normally.

I do think we will see the pediatric vax sooner than we think. I'm prepping my kid mentally to be jabbed.

But middle schoolers' risk of getting severely sick or dying from Covid is lower than it is for the flu (despite the flu vaccine). So this is just not logical.

Long term effects aren’t fully known. Doctors have seen increase in long term problems in healthy people (even teens) with mild covid. For example: https://www.lung.org/blog/long-term-covid-19-effects

You are so dismissive of the unknown.

No, I am choosing to be rational and am weighing the risks (I do tend to be a worrier, but I have learned to fight that tendency when it really counts). "One teenager's story" (plus other anecdotal reports) is not going to make me decide that this potential but likely low risk outweighs the definitive and significant risks of further deprivation of in-person school for millions of teenagers. I'm also following the discussion of Covid risks in other countries, and notice that these kinds of stories and potential risks are not hyped nearly as much anywhere as they are here, and don't determine policy in other countries.

No, you aren’t a worrier if you dismiss this as just “one teenager’s story.” You should know after doctors do not know enough about the long term effects. That’s not anecdotal! You got some serious Dunning-Kruger Effect going on!

Dunning Kruger right back atcha, if you think you can judge from my post that I must not be a worrier (trust me, I am), or how well I am equipped to assess risks (you know nothing about my professional background). And it sounds like you would diagnose public health experts around the world with the same limitations, as despite the existing unknowns, almost none of them are recommending that teens be denied access to proper schooling until they can be vaccinated.

You don’t have a job. You’re an angry person. All you do is spend your days b*tching about your kids being home in the form of lashing out at teachers, unions, and politicians. You’re a tiny person with a lot of rage.

Um, no. But keep demonstrating you don't have any real arguments or data by resorting to ad hominem attacks. This one was exemplary, compiling all your assumptions and rage against those who think schools should open into one post.

https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/coronavirus/in-depth/coronavirus-long-term-effects/art-20490351
https://www.kuer.org/health-science-environment/2020-09-29/what-doctors-know-so-far-about-the-long-term-effects-of-covid-19
https://www.health.harvard.edu/diseases-and-conditions/what-are-the-long-lasting-effects-of-covid-19

All note doctors do not know the long effects.

[Anonymous]

DCPS will open in the Fall. Fairfax PS is as are the others.

[Anonymous]

I’m interested in understanding the thought process behind those that think that DC will fully open in the fall. I would love to be on that train.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I think PK-5 will be FT in person and that any school that struggles to handle that will be in trouble with parents and DCPS (including charters).

I think MS and HS are going to be tricky and that MS in particular is going to prove problematic because kids normally switch classrooms and participate in more specialized classes and none of those kids will be able to vaccinate by September. I could easily see MS and HS being hybrid in the fall but I think there will be enormous pressure to offer as much in person as possible.

I've heard a number of well-respected epidemiologists and virologists talk about how younger kids can be well protected from the virus before vaccination because if teachers and parents are vaccinated it creates an umbrella of protection for these kids who spend all of their time with vaccinated adults. It's a harder question with older children. 16 and up will be able to vaccinate by September, but no one else will. Plus kids this age are more social and independent and that's going to impact trust by the teacher's union as well as families who are happy with DL and reluctant to return. And you need those groups on board.

But if the parents of middle schoolers are vaccinated, then why would they worry about their middle schoolers? The chances of Covid harming them are lower than the flu. How did these parents ever send their kids to school?

I think the issue is they are in that brackish age of getting Covid and getting sick and not getting vaxxed. So 6th and 7th maybe no issue but 8th?

If the vax goes down to age 12 by the fall then I don't see why MS wouldn't open normally.

I do think we will see the pediatric vax sooner than we think. I'm prepping my kid mentally to be jabbed.

But middle schoolers' risk of getting severely sick or dying from Covid is lower than it is for the flu (despite the flu vaccine). So this is just not logical.

Long term effects aren’t fully known. Doctors have seen increase in long term problems in healthy people (even teens) with mild covid. For example: https://www.lung.org/blog/long-term-covid-19-effects

You are so dismissive of the unknown.

No, I am choosing to be rational and am weighing the risks (I do tend to be a worrier, but I have learned to fight that tendency when it really counts). "One teenager's story" (plus other anecdotal reports) is not going to make me decide that this potential but likely low risk outweighs the definitive and significant risks of further deprivation of in-person school for millions of teenagers. I'm also following the discussion of Covid risks in other countries, and notice that these kinds of stories and potential risks are not hyped nearly as much anywhere as they are here, and don't determine policy in other countries.

No, you aren’t a worrier if you dismiss this as just “one teenager’s story.” You should know after doctors do not know enough about the long term effects. That’s not anecdotal! You got some serious Dunning-Kruger Effect going on!

Dunning Kruger right back atcha, if you think you can judge from my post that I must not be a worrier (trust me, I am), or how well I am equipped to assess risks (you know nothing about my professional background). And it sounds like you would diagnose public health experts around the world with the same limitations, as despite the existing unknowns, almost none of them are recommending that teens be denied access to proper schooling until they can be vaccinated.

You don’t have a job. You’re an angry person. All you do is spend your days b*tching about your kids being home in the form of lashing out at teachers, unions, and politicians. You’re a tiny person with a lot of rage.

Um, no. But keep demonstrating you don't have any real arguments or data by resorting to ad hominem attacks. This one was exemplary, compiling all your assumptions and rage against those who think schools should open into one post.

https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/coronavirus/in-depth/coronavirus-long-term-effects/art-20490351
https://www.kuer.org/health-science-environment/2020-09-29/what-doctors-know-so-far-about-the-long-term-effects-of-covid-19
https://www.health.harvard.edu/diseases-and-conditions/what-are-the-long-lasting-effects-of-covid-19

All note doctors do not know the long effects.

I never disputed that they don't. How could they? You are missing the point.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I’m interested in understanding the thought process behind those that think that DC will fully open in the fall. I would love to be on that train.

DC is a follower district not a leader district.
Once MoCo, PG, Fairfax, Arlington etc.... declare they are open full time in the fall, DC announces they are too because of a preponderance of evidence.
Once it becomes obvious that the mainstream, progressive position is to go back to school in the fall, full force, one random official will not be used as a scapegoat for why schools can't open. She will be fired if she won't agree that it makes sense.

This will happen because:

Soon, everyone will have the opportunity to register for a vaccine.
If they don't, it's on them.
At that point teachers can no longer say, I can't go back to school until I'm vaccinated.
Covid cases will fall precipitously before the fall.

Once there is very little covid and everyone can get the vaccine (except some kids who are far less impacted by COVID than anyone else in society) then it will become obvious that it is an unreasonable position to keep the schools closed.

Parents will have an out to keep their kids home.
Lots of parents will say they might.
But then they won't.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I think PK-5 will be FT in person and that any school that struggles to handle that will be in trouble with parents and DCPS (including charters).

I think MS and HS are going to be tricky and that MS in particular is going to prove problematic because kids normally switch classrooms and participate in more specialized classes and none of those kids will be able to vaccinate by September. I could easily see MS and HS being hybrid in the fall but I think there will be enormous pressure to offer as much in person as possible.

I've heard a number of well-respected epidemiologists and virologists talk about how younger kids can be well protected from the virus before vaccination because if teachers and parents are vaccinated it creates an umbrella of protection for these kids who spend all of their time with vaccinated adults. It's a harder question with older children. 16 and up will be able to vaccinate by September, but no one else will. Plus kids this age are more social and independent and that's going to impact trust by the teacher's union as well as families who are happy with DL and reluctant to return. And you need those groups on board.

But if the parents of middle schoolers are vaccinated, then why would they worry about their middle schoolers? The chances of Covid harming them are lower than the flu. How did these parents ever send their kids to school?

I think the issue is they are in that brackish age of getting Covid and getting sick and not getting vaxxed. So 6th and 7th maybe no issue but 8th?

If the vax goes down to age 12 by the fall then I don't see why MS wouldn't open normally.

I do think we will see the pediatric vax sooner than we think. I'm prepping my kid mentally to be jabbed.

But middle schoolers' risk of getting severely sick or dying from Covid is lower than it is for the flu (despite the flu vaccine). So this is just not logical.

Long term effects aren’t fully known. Doctors have seen increase in long term problems in healthy people (even teens) with mild covid. For example: https://www.lung.org/blog/long-term-covid-19-effects

You are so dismissive of the unknown.

No, I am choosing to be rational and am weighing the risks (I do tend to be a worrier, but I have learned to fight that tendency when it really counts). "One teenager's story" (plus other anecdotal reports) is not going to make me decide that this potential but likely low risk outweighs the definitive and significant risks of further deprivation of in-person school for millions of teenagers. I'm also following the discussion of Covid risks in other countries, and notice that these kinds of stories and potential risks are not hyped nearly as much anywhere as they are here, and don't determine policy in other countries.

No, you aren’t a worrier if you dismiss this as just “one teenager’s story.” You should know after doctors do not know enough about the long term effects. That’s not anecdotal! You got some serious Dunning-Kruger Effect going on!

Dunning Kruger right back atcha, if you think you can judge from my post that I must not be a worrier (trust me, I am), or how well I am equipped to assess risks (you know nothing about my professional background). And it sounds like you would diagnose public health experts around the world with the same limitations, as despite the existing unknowns, almost none of them are recommending that teens be denied access to proper schooling until they can be vaccinated.

You don’t have a job. You’re an angry person. All you do is spend your days b*tching about your kids being home in the form of lashing out at teachers, unions, and politicians. You’re a tiny person with a lot of rage.

DP. I think it’s pretty clear who the angry one is.

[Anonymous]

Fulltime will depend on vaccine efficacy. People in Brazil are being reinfected after having COVID with their new variant. If we see that happen with the vaccine, that will crush any hope of normalcy for the fall

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I think PK-5 will be FT in person and that any school that struggles to handle that will be in trouble with parents and DCPS (including charters).

I think MS and HS are going to be tricky and that MS in particular is going to prove problematic because kids normally switch classrooms and participate in more specialized classes and none of those kids will be able to vaccinate by September. I could easily see MS and HS being hybrid in the fall but I think there will be enormous pressure to offer as much in person as possible.

I've heard a number of well-respected epidemiologists and virologists talk about how younger kids can be well protected from the virus before vaccination because if teachers and parents are vaccinated it creates an umbrella of protection for these kids who spend all of their time with vaccinated adults. It's a harder question with older children. 16 and up will be able to vaccinate by September, but no one else will. Plus kids this age are more social and independent and that's going to impact trust by the teacher's union as well as families who are happy with DL and reluctant to return. And you need those groups on board.

But if the parents of middle schoolers are vaccinated, then why would they worry about their middle schoolers? The chances of Covid harming them are lower than the flu. How did these parents ever send their kids to school?

I think the issue is they are in that brackish age of getting Covid and getting sick and not getting vaxxed. So 6th and 7th maybe no issue but 8th?

If the vax goes down to age 12 by the fall then I don't see why MS wouldn't open normally.

I do think we will see the pediatric vax sooner than we think. I'm prepping my kid mentally to be jabbed.

But middle schoolers' risk of getting severely sick or dying from Covid is lower than it is for the flu (despite the flu vaccine). So this is just not logical.

Long term effects aren’t fully known. Doctors have seen increase in long term problems in healthy people (even teens) with mild covid. For example: https://www.lung.org/blog/long-term-covid-19-effects

You are so dismissive of the unknown.

No, I am choosing to be rational and am weighing the risks (I do tend to be a worrier, but I have learned to fight that tendency when it really counts). "One teenager's story" (plus other anecdotal reports) is not going to make me decide that this potential but likely low risk outweighs the definitive and significant risks of further deprivation of in-person school for millions of teenagers. I'm also following the discussion of Covid risks in other countries, and notice that these kinds of stories and potential risks are not hyped nearly as much anywhere as they are here, and don't determine policy in other countries.

No, you aren’t a worrier if you dismiss this as just “one teenager’s story.” You should know after doctors do not know enough about the long term effects. That’s not anecdotal! You got some serious Dunning-Kruger Effect going on!

Dunning Kruger right back atcha, if you think you can judge from my post that I must not be a worrier (trust me, I am), or how well I am equipped to assess risks (you know nothing about my professional background). And it sounds like you would diagnose public health experts around the world with the same limitations, as despite the existing unknowns, almost none of them are recommending that teens be denied access to proper schooling until they can be vaccinated.

You don’t have a job. You’re an angry person. All you do is spend your days b*tching about your kids being home in the form of lashing out at teachers, unions, and politicians. You’re a tiny person with a lot of rage.

Um, no. But keep demonstrating you don't have any real arguments or data by resorting to ad hominem attacks. This one was exemplary, compiling all your assumptions and rage against those who think schools should open into one post.

https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/coronavirus/in-depth/coronavirus-long-term-effects/art-20490351
https://www.kuer.org/health-science-environment/2020-09-29/what-doctors-know-so-far-about-the-long-term-effects-of-covid-19
https://www.health.harvard.edu/diseases-and-conditions/what-are-the-long-lasting-effects-of-covid-19

All note doctors do not know the long effects.

I never disputed that they don't. How could they? You are missing the point.

Sure. Whatever.

Schools are re-opening in the Fall despite the unknown. People like you have given up and don’t care about long haul issues. I just wish you would stop with the constant rage posting. It’s exhausting. People who worry about reopening worry about the long term health problems. (FWIW, I have requested that my kids return for limited instruction now. But I don’t ridicule people’s fear because there are long term severe problems.)

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Fulltime will depend on vaccine efficacy. People in Brazil are being reinfected after having COVID with their new variant. If we see that happen with the vaccine, that will crush any hope of normalcy for the fall

Sorry - not efficacy. I think we are good on that, though perhaps variants will test it. I meant lasting efficacy months after getting it

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I think PK-5 will be FT in person and that any school that struggles to handle that will be in trouble with parents and DCPS (including charters).

I think MS and HS are going to be tricky and that MS in particular is going to prove problematic because kids normally switch classrooms and participate in more specialized classes and none of those kids will be able to vaccinate by September. I could easily see MS and HS being hybrid in the fall but I think there will be enormous pressure to offer as much in person as possible.

I've heard a number of well-respected epidemiologists and virologists talk about how younger kids can be well protected from the virus before vaccination because if teachers and parents are vaccinated it creates an umbrella of protection for these kids who spend all of their time with vaccinated adults. It's a harder question with older children. 16 and up will be able to vaccinate by September, but no one else will. Plus kids this age are more social and independent and that's going to impact trust by the teacher's union as well as families who are happy with DL and reluctant to return. And you need those groups on board.

But if the parents of middle schoolers are vaccinated, then why would they worry about their middle schoolers? The chances of Covid harming them are lower than the flu. How did these parents ever send their kids to school?

I think the issue is they are in that brackish age of getting Covid and getting sick and not getting vaxxed. So 6th and 7th maybe no issue but 8th?

If the vax goes down to age 12 by the fall then I don't see why MS wouldn't open normally.

I do think we will see the pediatric vax sooner than we think. I'm prepping my kid mentally to be jabbed.

But middle schoolers' risk of getting severely sick or dying from Covid is lower than it is for the flu (despite the flu vaccine). So this is just not logical.

Long term effects aren’t fully known. Doctors have seen increase in long term problems in healthy people (even teens) with mild covid. For example: https://www.lung.org/blog/long-term-covid-19-effects

You are so dismissive of the unknown.

No, I am choosing to be rational and am weighing the risks (I do tend to be a worrier, but I have learned to fight that tendency when it really counts). "One teenager's story" (plus other anecdotal reports) is not going to make me decide that this potential but likely low risk outweighs the definitive and significant risks of further deprivation of in-person school for millions of teenagers. I'm also following the discussion of Covid risks in other countries, and notice that these kinds of stories and potential risks are not hyped nearly as much anywhere as they are here, and don't determine policy in other countries.

No, you aren’t a worrier if you dismiss this as just “one teenager’s story.” You should know after doctors do not know enough about the long term effects. That’s not anecdotal! You got some serious Dunning-Kruger Effect going on!

Dunning Kruger right back atcha, if you think you can judge from my post that I must not be a worrier (trust me, I am), or how well I am equipped to assess risks (you know nothing about my professional background). And it sounds like you would diagnose public health experts around the world with the same limitations, as despite the existing unknowns, almost none of them are recommending that teens be denied access to proper schooling until they can be vaccinated.

You don’t have a job. You’re an angry person. All you do is spend your days b*tching about your kids being home in the form of lashing out at teachers, unions, and politicians. You’re a tiny person with a lot of rage.

Um, no. But keep demonstrating you don't have any real arguments or data by resorting to ad hominem attacks. This one was exemplary, compiling all your assumptions and rage against those who think schools should open into one post.

https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/coronavirus/in-depth/coronavirus-long-term-effects/art-20490351
https://www.kuer.org/health-science-environment/2020-09-29/what-doctors-know-so-far-about-the-long-term-effects-of-covid-19
https://www.health.harvard.edu/diseases-and-conditions/what-are-the-long-lasting-effects-of-covid-19

All note doctors do not know the long effects.

I never disputed that they don't. How could they? You are missing the point.

Sure. Whatever.

Schools are re-opening in the Fall despite the unknown. People like you have given up and don’t care about long haul issues. I just wish you would stop with the constant rage posting. It’s exhausting. People who worry about reopening worry about the long term health problems. (FWIW, I have requested that my kids return for limited instruction now. But I don’t ridicule people’s fear because there are long term severe problems.)

I'm not rage posting, you are projecting. I was trying to have a rational discussion about the risk trade offs for middle schoolers and high high schoolers who are too young to be vaccinated. I don't even have a kid in that age group. All I got was a blog post and some generalities about the unknowns, which nobody disputes, along with an extremely angry, vicious ad hominem attack. I didn't ridicule anyone (that was you), nor did I ever post hateful things about teachers, but of course you can't know that because we are all anonymous. It's evident though that YOU are the one who needs to chill out and manage your rage.

[Anonymous]

Pfizer and Moderna (and AstraZeneca though that’s not here anyway) are already believed not to be particularly effective against the South African strain. Something like over ten times less of an immune response than for the main strains it was created for.

[Anonymous]

Many teachers do want full time IPL in the Fall, please don't think the WTU will stop that.

But I am asking you to fight with us on fully funding our schools. Why are high needs schools having to excess teachers? Especially when enrollment doesn't warrant it?

And even if it did aren't smaller classrooms a GOOD idea? Even before covid, smaller class sizes equals better learning for all.

I stand with you for full time, I am sure this time teachers who don't agree will speak up because we know another year of DL is insane. But we need you to call the mayor out too.