Predictions for full time in person in the Fall please

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I’m interested in understanding the thought process behind those that think that DC will fully open in the fall. I would love to be on that train.

DC is a follower district not a leader district.
Once MoCo, PG, Fairfax, Arlington etc.... declare they are open full time in the fall, DC announces they are too because of a preponderance of evidence.
Once it becomes obvious that the mainstream, progressive position is to go back to school in the fall, full force, one random official will not be used as a scapegoat for why schools can't open. She will be fired if she won't agree that it makes sense.

This will happen because:

Soon, everyone will have the opportunity to register for a vaccine.
If they don't, it's on them.
At that point teachers can no longer say, I can't go back to school until I'm vaccinated.
Covid cases will fall precipitously before the fall.

Once there is very little covid and everyone can get the vaccine (except some kids who are far less impacted by COVID than anyone else in society) then it will become obvious that it is an unreasonable position to keep the schools closed.

Parents will have an out to keep their kids home.
Lots of parents will say they might.
But then they won't.

But all of the surrounding counties HAVE declared they are planning for full time opening in the fall. And dc remains silent.

Look, I’m not disputing that it seems like, with COVID cases likely to decline with the vaccine, that one would expect people to be rational and go to normalish school in the Fall. But DC seems to be hell bent on being anti-science, inert, uninterested in learning loss, and only attentive to a small percentage of parents’ wishes. It’s unfathomable from a rational perspective but DC thus far isn’t rational in relation to schools.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Many teachers do want full time IPL in the Fall, please don't think the WTU will stop that.

But I am asking you to fight with us on fully funding our schools. Why are high needs schools having to excess teachers? Especially when enrollment doesn't warrant it?

And even if it did aren't smaller classrooms a GOOD idea? Even before covid, smaller class sizes equals better learning for all.

I stand with you for full time, I am sure this time teachers who don't agree will speak up because we know another year of DL is insane. But we need you to call the mayor out too.

I’ll believe teachers want full time IPL when I see literally any of them publicly saying so.

And don’t kid yourself, WTU has permanently destroyed any trust or goodwill they had with parents. We will not be standing with you on anything going forward because you’ve shown that we can’t trust you to have kids’ best interests in mind.

[Anonymous]

At some point does Bowser get pressure from the Biden Administration?

They can't really get feds in DC back to in-person until DC area kids are back to school. And so far the Biden Administration seems to be pushing for reopening.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Many teachers do want full time IPL in the Fall, please don't think the WTU will stop that.

But I am asking you to fight with us on fully funding our schools. Why are high needs schools having to excess teachers? Especially when enrollment doesn't warrant it?

And even if it did aren't smaller classrooms a GOOD idea? Even before covid, smaller class sizes equals better learning for all.

I stand with you for full time, I am sure this time teachers who don't agree will speak up because we know another year of DL is insane. But we need you to call the mayor out too.

I’ll believe teachers want full time IPL when I see literally any of them publicly saying so.

And don’t kid yourself, WTU has permanently destroyed any trust or goodwill they had with parents. We will not be standing with you on anything going forward because you’ve shown that we can’t trust you to have kids’ best interests in mind.

Not all parents feel this way. Every DCPS teacher I know cannot wait to put an end to distance learning and get back into their buildings, provided they are vaccinated.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Many teachers do want full time IPL in the Fall, please don't think the WTU will stop that.

But I am asking you to fight with us on fully funding our schools. Why are high needs schools having to excess teachers? Especially when enrollment doesn't warrant it?

And even if it did aren't smaller classrooms a GOOD idea? Even before covid, smaller class sizes equals better learning for all.

I stand with you for full time, I am sure this time teachers who don't agree will speak up because we know another year of DL is insane. But we need you to call the mayor out too.

I’ll believe teachers want full time IPL when I see literally any of them publicly saying so.

And don’t kid yourself, WTU has permanently destroyed any trust or goodwill they had with parents. We will not be standing with you on anything going forward because you’ve shown that we can’t trust you to have kids’ best interests in mind.

NP, and I understand why no one would trust the WTU, but I do think the number of teachers who want hybrid or DL in the fall is quite low. And I do think more teachers will speak up regardless of backlash.

I also think the WTU is losing it's arguments as time goes on:
-teachers need to be vaccinated? that will 100% be possible for the fall
-teachers need childcare? All school systems in the area are going back in the fall
-teachers live with vulnerable family members? They should all be vaccinated by the fall

It would be weird for the WTU to claim kids can get COVID and need to be vaccinated first because it would be the only time all pandemic the WTU has thought about the welfare of students. So that would go over like a lead balloon.

[Anonymous]

My prediction

- WTU will argue its not known if vaccine prevents spread
- WTU will argue new variants too risky
- WTU will push for concessions

We’ll get some kind of limited hybrid.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I’m interested in understanding the thought process behind those that think that DC will fully open in the fall. I would love to be on that train.

Our case counts are currently mid-teens per 100,000. I assume they will continue to fall as more folks get vaccinated, and that the risk of transmission will be smaller in September.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Many teachers do want full time IPL in the Fall, please don't think the WTU will stop that.

But I am asking you to fight with us on fully funding our schools. Why are high needs schools having to excess teachers? Especially when enrollment doesn't warrant it?

And even if it did aren't smaller classrooms a GOOD idea? Even before covid, smaller class sizes equals better learning for all.

I stand with you for full time, I am sure this time teachers who don't agree will speak up because we know another year of DL is insane. But we need you to call the mayor out too.

I’ll believe teachers want full time IPL when I see literally any of them publicly saying so.

And don’t kid yourself, WTU has permanently destroyed any trust or goodwill they had with parents. We will not be standing with you on anything going forward because you’ve shown that we can’t trust you to have kids’ best interests in mind.

This. WTU has fought to keep schools closed, which has harmed my kids. There's nothing that WTU can do or say to ever repair my trust in WTU or WTU supporters (looking at your WTU-endorsed council members). It's laughable to think that I would ever stand with WTU for benefits for teachers. Stop trying to couch it as we should stand with WTU to benefit our children. You already used that scam before to try to keep schools closed which hurt our children.

[Anonymous]

Schools are not closed. Schools are on line. It’s sucks but it was the best choice for a pandemic w an airborne disease

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Schools are not closed. Schools are on line. It’s sucks but it was the best choice for a pandemic w an airborne disease

no

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Schools are not closed. Schools are on line. It’s sucks but it was the best choice for a pandemic w an airborne disease

no

Through the end of the 2019-2020 school year? Yes. During the Thanksgiving to New Years season? Yes. Now? No

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Pfizer and Moderna (and AstraZeneca though that’s not here anyway) are already believed not to be particularly effective against the South African strain. Something like over ten times less of an immune response than for the main strains it was created for.

What you are trying to imply here with your vague allusion to facts you are not sure of - that the vaccines will not offer protection against the variants - is simply not true. The practical implications of the findings you are pointing to (without providing a source) are not nearly as alarming as you would like to pretend:

https://science.sciencemag.org/content/371/6534/1116.1

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2777785

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I’m interested in understanding the thought process behind those that think that DC will fully open in the fall. I would love to be on that train.

I don't understand why people are so concerned that it WON'T open.

Here are a few of the reasons I'm pretty sanguine about this.
1) The default position for school is in-person; this year and last year were exceptional circumstances. That is still the case, so there's no reason to just assume that they'll be closed unless we hear otherwise.
2) The chancellor specifically issued a correction to that tweet that said they were planning for hybrid learning, even though the tweet was pretty obviously being misread as if he meant they were ONLY planning for hybrid learning; if they weren't planning to be open in person, why would they have bothered cleaning that up?
3) They're already bringing some kids in person now, and many schools seem to have more spots for Q4 this year than they did for Q3. Case counts will be lower in August than they are now, so if you can bring in more kids today, you can certainly bring them in then.
4) It sure seems likely that the CDC will change its guidance on how much distance schools should try to maintain between students, which, in turn, makes it seem likely that D.C.'s health department will change its guidance for OSSE.
5) All the teachers and most parents/grandparents/caregivers will at least have the opportunity to be vaccinated by fall, which should significantly ease some of the concerns parents might have about sending their kids in person.
6) D.C. has already loosened some of the restrictions on mixing cohorts, etc., now, which seems likely to continue.
7) Despite all the fury a lot of my neighbors seem to have about DCPS, it did still start doing in-person school earlier than most suburban jurisdictions -- friends in MCPS just sent their kids back this week, friends in Arlington just earlier this month. So the fact that DCPS has been slower to announce its fall plans doesn't make me panic, especially given that every other school district in the area is aiming for five days a week in person.

Could all that be wrong? Sure. Could the whole situation change completely by August? Of course, that's five months from now. Has the city's communication about a lot of this been lousy? Yes, duh. But I don't see any real reason to look at things today and be angry already that DCPS isn't going to have in-person options for everyone who wants it by the fall, unless you just like wallowing in outrage.

[Anonymous]

Because Ward 7 and 8 parents won't want to go back to full time.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I’m interested in understanding the thought process behind those that think that DC will fully open in the fall. I would love to be on that train.

I don't understand why people are so concerned that it WON'T open.

Here are a few of the reasons I'm pretty sanguine about this.
1) The default position for school is in-person; this year and last year were exceptional circumstances. That is still the case, so there's no reason to just assume that they'll be closed unless we hear otherwise.
2) The chancellor specifically issued a correction to that tweet that said they were planning for hybrid learning, even though the tweet was pretty obviously being misread as if he meant they were ONLY planning for hybrid learning; if they weren't planning to be open in person, why would they have bothered cleaning that up?
3) They're already bringing some kids in person now, and many schools seem to have more spots for Q4 this year than they did for Q3. Case counts will be lower in August than they are now, so if you can bring in more kids today, you can certainly bring them in then.
4) It sure seems likely that the CDC will change its guidance on how much distance schools should try to maintain between students, which, in turn, makes it seem likely that D.C.'s health department will change its guidance for OSSE.
5) All the teachers and most parents/grandparents/caregivers will at least have the opportunity to be vaccinated by fall, which should significantly ease some of the concerns parents might have about sending their kids in person.
6) D.C. has already loosened some of the restrictions on mixing cohorts, etc., now, which seems likely to continue.
7) Despite all the fury a lot of my neighbors seem to have about DCPS, it did still start doing in-person school earlier than most suburban jurisdictions -- friends in MCPS just sent their kids back this week, friends in Arlington just earlier this month. So the fact that DCPS has been slower to announce its fall plans doesn't make me panic, especially given that every other school district in the area is aiming for five days a week in person.

Could all that be wrong? Sure. Could the whole situation change completely by August? Of course, that's five months from now. Has the city's communication about a lot of this been lousy? Yes, duh. But I don't see any real reason to look at things today and be angry already that DCPS isn't going to have in-person options for everyone who wants it by the fall, unless you just like wallowing in outrage.

Because even with 3 feet distance we can't fit all kids into classrooms in many places. So they need to remove it entirely, and they have been SO slow on this.

Even now, DC DOH removed cohort limits, but OSSE hasn't issued new guidance on that so schools cannot actually remove cohort limits.

Essentially, stupid bureaucracy can foil anything.