Fierce competition for Fall 2021 admissions, if lots of current seniors defer?

[Anonymous]

My guess is that colleges may allow deferrals under certain financial circumstances that can be proven, and as we speak are trying to decide what those are. Otherwise they will not allow deferrals or they won’t be able to survive. They’ll need to move to students on the waitlist and the student refusing to start via online would lose their spot. Hopefully the online instruction would be temporary and classes will be back on campus by sophomore year at the latest. Meanwhile students would only be paying tuition, possibly at a reduced rate, but not have to pay room & board so their online time will still be cheaper than campus time. And they keep their spot for when campus opens again.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Back to the original question-- yes, I think that lots of seniors deferring will make it tougher for juniors to enter college immediately after graduation in 2021. But is that really so bad? I have a junior and I was actually hoping that he would take a gap year after graduation in 2021. MAybe I'm crazy to look for a silver lining in this mess, but maybe society will pull together and focus on helping current seniors do interesting and productive things so that they can delay admission for a semester or so and such programs will roll to the benefit of not only current seniors but also to current juniors. Perhaps there will be apprenticeship programs. Perhaps volunteer opportunities.

In sum, I get it that juniors could be at a disadvantage because of seniors deferring (as a parent of a junior I really do get it-- and he was sort of hoping to get recruited in a sport, but that is a whole other thing) but the pain is clearly falling much harder upon the current seniors. They are at the vanguard of this. If your child is a senior, please don't feel obligated to send your child to college in the fall just because it will make it difficult for current juniors to enter college immediately after their graduation. Maybe todays juniors could actually benefit by having a delayed entrance, even without a virus on campus. Time to hone their sport, time to learn a trade, who knows?? We juniors parents will be sending best wishes and watching those seniors as they make their way as best they can-- as we all are doing in this difficult time.

So are you saying that most students will apply for next fall and the colleges will say "why don't you come in the fall of 2022 instead?" How would a delayed entrance for class of 2021 work? If half the spots are already gone because 2020 defers, are you saying that colleges would accept half as many 2021 grads for fall and the other half they would accept for fall of 2022? I get that in your mind this seems like a nice idea but it likely won't work like that.

Right, so then the class of 2022 pays? Or do half of them defer as well?

[Anonymous]

Do you all really think that all US colleges are going to just close up their classrooms for an entire year? Please! Hopefully they will not defer students who request it just because they're afraid of being on campus. Anyone who is too afraid will be welcome to reapply against the class of 2021. Class of 2021 should not be punished because a bunch of over-parented ninnies can't come because Mommy is too scared.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Do you all really think that all US colleges are going to just close up their classrooms for an entire year? Please! Hopefully they will not defer students who request it just because they're afraid of being on campus. Anyone who is too afraid will be welcome to reapply against the class of 2021. Class of 2021 should not be punished because a bunch of over-parented ninnies can't come because Mommy is too scared.

Don't you think the competitive schools will allow 2020 to defer, fill the class with waitlist students (primarily full pay) and then catch up by having a reduction of spots for 2021?
I think this is what people are afraid will happen.
The good schools (top 100) will be able to fill their class in fall 2021 by going to the waitlist if half the class defers. They won't take a financial hit. The 2021 students will.

Less competitive colleges won't have this option. But the top 100 or 200 will.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Do you all really think that all US colleges are going to just close up their classrooms for an entire year? Please! Hopefully they will not defer students who request it just because they're afraid of being on campus. Anyone who is too afraid will be welcome to reapply against the class of 2021. Class of 2021 should not be punished because a bunch of over-parented ninnies can't come because Mommy is too scared.

As I understand it, the class of 2020 deferments come from a desire not to pay full price for online classes. I suspect the numbers of those afraid of in-person classes on campus is tiny.

While some may allow deferments if classes are online, there is a limit to what numbers are going to work for the colleges. Those of us with current college students may see a little more clearly that the show must go on; not ideal, but for many, online will often be the least-worst alternative way to spend next semester.

[Anonymous]

I agree. If lots of seniors are allowed to defer, it will be tough for the class of 2021. Will lots of seniors be allowed to defer? Maybe at some schools. Not at others.

I've got a junior and am hoping he can take the SAT or ACT (forget multiple times, just once would be great).

[Anonymous]

Completely agree that folks need to quickly mourn what should have been for our juniors and seniors and then move on. Otherwise it is a bad lesson you are teaching your child. Instead, start focusing on what opportunities you can find or create in this adversity. There’s no point in dwelling on what has happened and what you can’t change. Focus on what you can affect. As a PP mentioned, this will be an unprecedented time for kids to be accepted from the waitlist. More domestic kids will have the opportunity for slots at our colleges. This also is an unprecedented time where taking a gap year will not be looked upon with possible concern, but will be a much more common thing. More opportunities for kids to better decide what they want for a career rather than guessing at 17. For athletes, I’m sure the school teams as we speak are trying to figure out how to replace a typical recruiting season for upcoming freshman years or their teams will be short as older team members graduate, so that will ultimately resolve.

We are the adults in this and need to teach our children perspective. I have a junior and am mourning what should have been as much as anyone. But it’s time to move on and teach them life lessons in this. This is a small chapter in their lifetime.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Back to the original question-- yes, I think that lots of seniors deferring will make it tougher for juniors to enter college immediately after graduation in 2021. But is that really so bad? I have a junior and I was actually hoping that he would take a gap year after graduation in 2021. MAybe I'm crazy to look for a silver lining in this mess, but maybe society will pull together and focus on helping current seniors do interesting and productive things so that they can delay admission for a semester or so and such programs will roll to the benefit of not only current seniors but also to current juniors. Perhaps there will be apprenticeship programs. Perhaps volunteer opportunities.

In sum, I get it that juniors could be at a disadvantage because of seniors deferring (as a parent of a junior I really do get it-- and he was sort of hoping to get recruited in a sport, but that is a whole other thing) but the pain is clearly falling much harder upon the current seniors. They are at the vanguard of this. If your child is a senior, please don't feel obligated to send your child to college in the fall just because it will make it difficult for current juniors to enter college immediately after their graduation. Maybe todays juniors could actually benefit by having a delayed entrance, even without a virus on campus. Time to hone their sport, time to learn a trade, who knows?? We juniors parents will be sending best wishes and watching those seniors as they make their way as best they can-- as we all are doing in this difficult time.

Ok - thanks for your permission. I feel much better about my senior's deferral now.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

I think it's pretty selfish to think that seniors are the only students suffering in this. My junior is at a private school where they are not doing pass/fail, she missed her SAT that she had been training for and then the next two got cancelled as well, her spring varsity season was cancelled and this is one that colleges look at for recruiting, her prospect days were cancelled and she needs to start the pre read process soon with no scores and limited information about the schools. She will likely be fine because she's a recruited athlete and far ahead of her peers in terms of narrowing her college choices but I do feel for other juniors who have been dealing with cancelations as well (junior prom, junior ring ceremony, junior summer abroad trips all cancelled).

Class of 2021 is not in a good position so please don't say they're not "carrying their share of the burden".

Do you realize how tone deaf and privileged this sounds?

+1

Total lack of awareness.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Completely agree that folks need to quickly mourn what should have been for our juniors and seniors and then move on. Otherwise it is a bad lesson you are teaching your child. Instead, start focusing on what opportunities you can find or create in this adversity. There’s no point in dwelling on what has happened and what you can’t change. Focus on what you can affect. As a PP mentioned, this will be an unprecedented time for kids to be accepted from the waitlist. More domestic kids will have the opportunity for slots at our colleges. This also is an unprecedented time where taking a gap year will not be looked upon with possible concern, but will be a much more common thing. More opportunities for kids to better decide what they want for a career rather than guessing at 17. For athletes, I’m sure the school teams as we speak are trying to figure out how to replace a typical recruiting season for upcoming freshman years or their teams will be short as older team members graduate, so that will ultimately resolve.

We are the adults in this and need to teach our children perspective. I have a junior and am mourning what should have been as much as anyone. But it’s time to move on and teach them life lessons in this. This is a small chapter in their lifetime.

+1. Teens and young adults, like everyone else, have just been handed a bowl of lemons. Time to figure out their own best, or least-worst, recipe for lemonade.

[Anonymous]

Yes, I anticipate that this will land heavily on the class of 2021.

Colleges will surely allow deferrals. Class of 2021 is this unknown quantity: no grades, potentially no SAT's, no meaningful AP scores, no achievements. Figuring out whom to admit will be a nightmare for most colleges.

Class of 2020 students that were already admitted were excellent, hence that's why they were chosen. If a sizable portion of the class of 2020 students defer, college will admit off waitlist and be fine. Students at the top of the waitlist are barely different from students who were admitted, everyone knows it. Students who were juuuuuuust a tad below the cut will gladly grab onto the ability to attend a reach school, in person or not, and will not defer because they got an admission they were hoping for, but never really counting on.

Admission for 2021 will be much easier on the colleges; half the slots are already filled with excellent class of 2020 students!

Win-win for everyone except class of 2021, or current Juniors.

As a parent of a Junior, there is nothing I can do to change this layout. Yes it makes me upset. I will suggest that my child applies heavily to safeties in addition to the predetermined state and reach schools.

To parents of 2020 Seniors who just missed the cut to be admitted to the top choice schools - congrats, you pulled out a BANNER YEAR. Wait for those waitlists to move. You won a lottery. Don't miss your chance, recession is coming, it won't be pretty for anyone.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

I think it's pretty selfish to think that seniors are the only students suffering in this. My junior is at a private school where they are not doing pass/fail, she missed her SAT that she had been training for and then the next two got cancelled as well, her spring varsity season was cancelled and this is one that colleges look at for recruiting, her prospect days were cancelled and she needs to start the pre read process soon with no scores and limited information about the schools. She will likely be fine because she's a recruited athlete and far ahead of her peers in terms of narrowing her college choices but I do feel for other juniors who have been dealing with cancelations as well (junior prom, junior ring ceremony, junior summer abroad trips all cancelled).

Class of 2021 is not in a good position so please don't say they're not "carrying their share of the burden".

Do you realize how tone deaf and privileged this sounds?

People please!! I have a senior who is missing out on the most fun months of school life: senior prank day, final theater production, senior ditch day, prom, graduation. Also at a small private. You know what? She is taking it like a champ, with maturity and grace. More mature than this poster who is obviously a parent!!

Nobody is WINNING on the "who has it worse" in this crisis. Juniors and seniors are both facing big challenges this year and next - it's not a competition. I am so, so proud of my senior who has risen to the occasion and has not complained much at all about losing out. Our school is hoping for a weekend of celebrations in August if it's safe, and DC is holding out hope that we can do that. Otherwise, she is looking forward to college in the fall - however that takes place. She is NOT deferring. DC hasn't made a final school decision yet - so this week is a bit stressful because she has three amazing choices that are all highly ranked. That's a great, privileged problem to have and we know it.

Please put things in perspective and help your junior handle this with maturity. They will all be fine - a little adversity is good for our snowflakes as they embark on adulthood.

From a college admissions perspective, juniors have it worse than current seniors. Current seniors have a choice about accepting for this year or deferring. They've already been accepted and have a spot if they want it. Some are even getting off wait lists because of the lower expected numbers for fall. Your kid is handling it like a trooper because she has three wonderful choices. Parents of juniors are concerned that if too many of this years class defers, their kid will be shut out. That's a very real concern. It's easy to tell juniors to handle this with maturity when your child has three offers in hand. Not having prospects other than cc or lower tier schools because next year's classes are full isn't a little adversity. Have three really good choices and an option to defer is a little adversity. Try to see that perspective and avoid using "snowflakes" to describe kids who have no clue what whether they'll get in anywhere.

It is NOT a contest people.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Yes, I anticipate that this will land heavily on the class of 2021.

Colleges will surely allow deferrals. Class of 2021 is this unknown quantity: no grades, potentially no SAT's, no meaningful AP scores, no achievements. Figuring out whom to admit will be a nightmare for most colleges.

Class of 2020 students that were already admitted were excellent, hence that's why they were chosen. If a sizable portion of the class of 2020 students defer, college will admit off waitlist and be fine. Students at the top of the waitlist are barely different from students who were admitted, everyone knows it. Students who were juuuuuuust a tad below the cut will gladly grab onto the ability to attend a reach school, in person or not, and will not defer because they got an admission they were hoping for, but never really counting on.

Admission for 2021 will be much easier on the colleges; half the slots are already filled with excellent class of 2020 students!

Win-win for everyone except class of 2021, or current Juniors.

As a parent of a Junior, there is nothing I can do to change this layout. Yes it makes me upset. I will suggest that my child applies heavily to safeties in addition to the predetermined state and reach schools.

To parents of 2020 Seniors who just missed the cut to be admitted to the top choice schools - congrats, you pulled out a BANNER YEAR. Wait for those waitlists to move. You won a lottery. Don't miss your chance, recession is coming, it won't be pretty for anyone.

This is exactly why colleges will be happy to fill all of Fall 2020 and 1/2 of Fall 2021 with 2020 grads. They come with data and the colleges know what they're getting.
With the class of 2021 they have no idea. They could be admitting top students, they could be admitting mediocre students. There won't be meaningful ways to distinguish between students.
It's a huge bummer for high achievers in the class of 2021.


But life will go on. The reality is that top students will almost universally be fine regardless of what college they attend. We've all been reading the data that supports this and telling ourselves this for YEARS.
Now we will likely see it play out.

[Anonymous]

Actually this might work out well for my junior. She was thinking of a gap year because she has little idea of what she wants to study and wants to have more purpose when she goes, more maturity to handle the workload and deadlines. Doesn’t want to spend the money we have for college spinning her wheels and having to go longer, spending more money, possibly incurring loans because of it. We were already discussing this as a serious option and for her to take some community college courses to keep a toe in, try out different subjects, decide what to major in. Now with all the upheaval, it will be a much more common thing to happen, our current juniors and seniors taking a gap year or starting locally due to finances as the admissions crisis works itself out over the next couple of years.

[Anonymous]

Has anyone considered that there is no guarantee thats
spring or fall of 2021 will happen either? We don’t know enough at this point. No one knows when the pandemic will and or return.

Fall of 2020 could go on without an issue and then spring of 2021 or fall of 2021 could be online. Then what? You’ve just delayed your kid’s adult life for the same or worse outcome.