exodus from MD

[Anonymous]

You don't need to drop to extremes to create financial problems for the county.

We sold our house in Potomac last year for 100K less than we bought it for 15 years ago. The tax assessment was 200K+ over the sales price and comps in the neighborhood. We didn't lose as much money as other people are losing. The buyers were nice and had kids. They were about the same age as us but make far less money and really stretched to buy the house. I hope that they don't need to sell in the next few years. Montgomery county will now get less property tax and less income tax as a result of our move.

When we dropped the price by 100K another neighbor that was selling but planning on holding on until he got a higher offer had to drop because his house wouldn't appraise based on our added lower comp. He was not happy. This is how neighborhood property values cycle down. He had a high income and had just retired so I doubt whoever bought his house would be paying the same amount of income tax and they certainly wouldn't accept paying property taxes 100K- 200K above what they paid for the house.

I understand the rush to sell. You aren't just trying to get at the last remaining high price buyers but you are trying to stay ahead of dropping appraisals.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:You don't need to drop to extremes to create financial problems for the county.

We sold our house in Potomac last year for 100K less than we bought it for 15 years ago. The tax assessment was 200K+ over the sales price and comps in the neighborhood. We didn't lose as much money as other people are losing. The buyers were nice and had kids. They were about the same age as us but make far less money and really stretched to buy the house. I hope that they don't need to sell in the next few years. Montgomery county will now get less property tax and less income tax as a result of our move.

When we dropped the price by 100K another neighbor that was selling but planning on holding on until he got a higher offer had to drop because his house wouldn't appraise based on our added lower comp. He was not happy. This is how neighborhood property values cycle down. He had a high income and had just retired so I doubt whoever bought his house would be paying the same amount of income tax and they certainly wouldn't accept paying property taxes 100K- 200K above what they paid for the house.

I understand the rush to sell. You aren't just trying to get at the last remaining high price buyers but you are trying to stay ahead of dropping appraisals.

You bought at the top of the market, and you live in a part of the county that is comparatively less desirable than it used to be.

[Anonymous]

Here’s what I’m getting from their thread, DC and NoVA are in a new housing bubble and everyone will lose a lot of money in a few years. MoCo has avoided the bubble and will be fine. People bought in undesirable locations like Potomac and think a bunch of Millinials should buy there house for more than they paid even though Potomac is not walkable and has no modern amenities.

[Anonymous]

Seriously, this hand-wringing and narrative of MoCo in decline needs to stop. Are there other areas growing faster? Yes. Is MoCo shrinking or is there really an exodus? No, and the data shows it. The GCAAR website offers free reports directly from contracts signed and then closed in the county. Here is the June report:

https://gcaar.com/docs/default-source/montgomery-c...une-2019.pdf?sfvrsn=2432cd93_2

The report is fairly clear:

- stable if not slightly higher prices than one year ago ~1.6% higher
- lower overall closed sales than June 2018 BUT higher contracts pending than one year ago, should even out by end of July or August
- less inventory on market, you cannot sell what is not there

My read on this is that the market is not quite as strong as 2016, when units were higher, but prices are still increasing and inventory is lower than that time period.

This is not a report that suggests imminent doom. Sorry.

[Anonymous]

All you have to do is check the GCAAR website folks. Kind of ridiculous how many people post without any data, just their judgments.

https://gcaar.com/realtor-tools/smart-charts-housing-data/montgomery-county-market-reports

[Anonymous]

No exodus from my neighborhood, unless you count old people dying/downsizing. I’m inEast MoCo in a not very highly desired neighborhood and our house has appreciated about 33% from when we bought it 7 years ago. Even here, houses are not sitting!

[Anonymous]

Here’s what I’m getting from their thread, DC and NoVA are in a new housing bubble and everyone will lose a lot of money in a few years. MoCo has avoided the bubble and will be fine. People bought in undesirable locations like Potomac and think a bunch of Millinials should buy there house for more than they paid even though Potomac is not walkable and has no modern amenities.

No people are moving to NOVA because of the jobs and the greater appreciation potential. Its all the new businesses that are growing and projecting to grow. The expansions haven't even occurred and all the growth is basically people relocating from other areas in the DMV before it is too difficult. Potomac may come back because of its proximity to VA but VA has to rise to where no area in VA is remotely affordable before that happens.

I don't think anyone in 2003-2005 could have predicted MCPS taking a nose dive but we should have seen the problems of the area not having professional jobs. NOVA had defense contractors and telecoms before the tech and finance boom in VA.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:All you have to do is check the GCAAR website folks. Kind of ridiculous how many people post without any data, just their judgments.

https://gcaar.com/realtor-tools/smart-charts-housing-data/montgomery-county-market-reports

Someone asked Jeff if all of these posts were from the same person...several of the examples were. The others could be the same person at work..

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Well, I am Asian, living in MoCo and my kids are expected to ace the SAT and ACT, anything less than that is considered failure lol. Many UMC Asian families in my circle are staying in MoCo. Of course many things are not perfect here, but relocating is expensive (~ 10% transaction fee) there are better ways to spend that money. For example, I wouldn't mind spending 10K on tutors per year if needed.

I heart you, Tiger Mom!

[Anonymous]

I have no idea what you are talking about. I'm in close in SS and would love to buy a house inside my neighborhood and not on our busy street. Nothing is for sale and I'm willing to go to about $850k

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Here’s what I’m getting from their thread, DC and NoVA are in a new housing bubble and everyone will lose a lot of money in a few years. MoCo has avoided the bubble and will be fine. People bought in undesirable locations like Potomac and think a bunch of Millinials should buy there house for more than they paid even though Potomac is not walkable and has no modern amenities.

Except that's the problem with real estate. No one can predict how desirable an area will be 20-30 years from now. People are overpaying for what is desirable now and might get a sticker shock about how much money they will lose or how slow their money has grown when they try to sell in 25 years. Real estate in general is so overrated. Especially at the prices for what places in this region go for.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:You don't need to drop to extremes to create financial problems for the county.

We sold our house in Potomac last year for 100K less than we bought it for 15 years ago. The tax assessment was 200K+ over the sales price and comps in the neighborhood. We didn't lose as much money as other people are losing. The buyers were nice and had kids. They were about the same age as us but make far less money and really stretched to buy the house. I hope that they don't need to sell in the next few years. Montgomery county will now get less property tax and less income tax as a result of our move.

When we dropped the price by 100K another neighbor that was selling but planning on holding on until he got a higher offer had to drop because his house wouldn't appraise based on our added lower comp. He was not happy. This is how neighborhood property values cycle down. He had a high income and had just retired so I doubt whoever bought his house would be paying the same amount of income tax and they certainly wouldn't accept paying property taxes 100K- 200K above what they paid for the house.

I understand the rush to sell. You aren't just trying to get at the last remaining high price buyers but you are trying to stay ahead of dropping appraisals.

You bought your house at the highest price time, and then crash happened, correct? Houses that people overpaid for, and then crashed did not recover fully yet. This happened everywhere it is not a MoCo only effect. You bought a very price house, right? Because I bought in 2011 and all next to mine are selling for 150K more than what we paid for, same houses more or less like mine. However, my next doors neighbor still hasn't recovered his paying price. He bought in 2007 for more than he would get now. He seems ok, renting his walk in basement for years and years, so clearly he is making money there.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I have no idea what you are talking about. I'm in close in SS and would love to buy a house inside my neighborhood and not on our busy street. Nothing is for sale and I'm willing to go to about $850k

It is the rich people talking. Those that bought mansions in Potomac for 2M, they can't sell it even close to that price. A friend just bought a 1.5M there that was sold prior for 2M.

[Anonymous]

I think the worst part of the problem is that the quality of the houses in Potomac for sale is low. There is hardly any new building going on, and those that are are going up on crappy lots with water running through them. The older ones need to be torn down due to dank, dank, mold smell, old infrastructure, horrific original build materials. But, too expensive to tear down and rebuild! At some point there will be no choice, like the houses in the Luxmanor ES district, where new ones replaced old. There is not a whole new crop of houses like in Bethesda around North Bethesda MS. But there desperately needs to be. And, worst of all, they will probably be crazy bigger McMansions when they do.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I think the worst part of the problem is that the quality of the houses in Potomac for sale is low. There is hardly any new building going on, and those that are are going up on crappy lots with water running through them. The older ones need to be torn down due to dank, dank, mold smell, old infrastructure, horrific original build materials. But, too expensive to tear down and rebuild! At some point there will be no choice, like the houses in the Luxmanor ES district, where new ones replaced old. There is not a whole new crop of houses like in Bethesda around North Bethesda MS. But there desperately needs to be. And, worst of all, they will probably be crazy bigger McMansions when they do.

Potomac in general Comps are not a good indicator due to age of homes. My block in Potomac was built 1975. I bought in 2017 and paid highest price on block since bubble. My new neighbor came running over to see it after I moved in. House was only on market like 10 minutes when I bought it at broker only open house.

After I bought a home sold for S150K less same size.

Am I crazy no. My seller bought a wreck of house at peak in Spring 2005. He put in one new kitchen, four new bathrooms, all new wood floors main level, several new windows, new slate deck and red-did den with beautiful wood. He did the work between 2005 and 2016.

Other houses back in Spring 2005 the seller did the paint, do new floors, update kitchens and baths (cheaply) to get ready for sale and top dollar. New Owner immediately underwater did nothing to house and is now selling in 2019 at a "200k" loss.

Very large houses are very expensive to fix and maintain, prices can swing 200k to 300K on my block on identical homes depending on condition of home. In phony realtor pictures they all look the same they are not. My house has a 2,000 square foot basement, prior owner painted, new carpeting, new sump pump, new trim, new windows. It is all usable, my old neighbor is was dank, smelly, paneled, ugly. Dont laugh just painting, put down new carpets, new windows, new doors in basement, new trim at 2,000 square feet adds up. I have no media room none of that it is square footage adds up.

My old block had tiny capes and splites, 1,300 to 1,400 square feet, fixer uppers did not go for a lot less than all done homes. Painting, sanding floors new windows in a tiny home is not much. Try that on a 7,0000 square foot home