exodus from MD

[Anonymous]

I live in Potomac on a nice block. I actually grew up in the Bronx. In the 1970's people left the Bronx in record numbers. Landlords who owned buildings mortgage free would walk away as the taxes and water bills alone was not worth it. Other Landlords one by one set the buildings on fire to collect insurance. The South Bronx was a pile of rubble in parts where rows and row of houses and apartment buildings stood 15 years earlier. That is leaving.

My block older folks sell and younger folks buy. Sometimes older folks pissed they sell house for less than expected as they ran it down or folks who bought 2005/2006 sell for slight loss and are pissed. Hardly would call that leaving.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Yes, on my street in Chevy Chase, the exodus is occurring. All families have left for greener pastures and the foreclosure rate is spiking. Thieves are running rampant in order to steal copper from the abandoned homes.

I don't go out at night for fear of being mugged or being mistaken for a rival gang member. Corner boys selling H have replaced crossing guards and soccer moms.

The decay is only accelerating. They've renamed the once tony enclaves.

Chevy Chase Sections 8, 8, and 8

Rolling'Hood

Murder's Additions

Chevy Chase'in the Dragon

PP, whomever you are, you're awesome!

[Anonymous]

Yes it does look like an exodus. We were buying/house hunting throughout MoCo in 2004. Prices everywhere, except maybe very close in Bethesda are much lower than they were back then. There is much more inventory sitting around too.

It seems like every empty nester in Silver Spring, Potomac, Rockville, North Bethesda and North Potomac decided to put their house on the market this spring. Houses that are below 700K-750K in high ranking school clusters seem to be selling. Houses below 600K in mediocre clusters seem to be selling. The more expensive houses for each neighborhood market are all sitting and price dropping. I could point to 1-2 houses that sold quickly in the spring for each area but there are 5 others that have been sitting. The houses that did sell did so under long contingencies for the buyer to sell their house too which is generally a sign of a very slow market. It is dicey to accept an offer that is contingent on the buyer selling their house.

My guess is that Potomac, Rockville and North Bethesda are being hit by people who can afford 1M choosing VA over MoCo. Silver Spring is still held back by low scoring schools and higher crime. All the inventory is coming from the age demographics and people retiring, concern over MoCo financial position, declining reputation of MCPS and general fear of a future recession. It seems to be sort of a get out while you can seller mentality. I have heard that Asians are leaving but they have been slowly leaving or choosing VA and Howard for the schools over the past several years. Maybe this is increasing now because of all the other negative factors for MoCo and MCPS actions discriminating against asians.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Yes it does look like an exodus. We were buying/house hunting throughout MoCo in 2004. Prices everywhere, except maybe very close in Bethesda are much lower than they were back then. There is much more inventory sitting around too.

It seems like every empty nester in Silver Spring, Potomac, Rockville, North Bethesda and North Potomac decided to put their house on the market this spring. Houses that are below 700K-750K in high ranking school clusters seem to be selling. Houses below 600K in mediocre clusters seem to be selling. The more expensive houses for each neighborhood market are all sitting and price dropping. I could point to 1-2 houses that sold quickly in the spring for each area but there are 5 others that have been sitting. The houses that did sell did so under long contingencies for the buyer to sell their house too which is generally a sign of a very slow market. It is dicey to accept an offer that is contingent on the buyer selling their house.

My guess is that Potomac, Rockville and North Bethesda are being hit by people who can afford 1M choosing VA over MoCo. Silver Spring is still held back by low scoring schools and higher crime. All the inventory is coming from the age demographics and people retiring, concern over MoCo financial position, declining reputation of MCPS and general fear of a future recession. It seems to be sort of a get out while you can seller mentality. I have heard that Asians are leaving but they have been slowly leaving or choosing VA and Howard for the schools over the past several years. Maybe this is increasing now because of all the other negative factors for MoCo and MCPS actions discriminating against asians.

Um.

[Anonymous]

I do not doubt 2004 was a different time, it was the middle of the housing bubble. People were waiving every contingency, even inspections, it was a crazy time.

These areas - Rockville, Potomac, Bethesda - will be just fine. In and of themselves they are not big economic engines, but they are close enough to others - DC, parts of NOVA, that they will have a floor under them.

If you are looking for more significant appreciation in percentage terms, then you need to go around the beltway towards Takoma Park. You can get more value there.

[Anonymous]

I do not doubt 2004 was a different time, it was the middle of the housing bubble. People were waiving every contingency, even inspections, it was a crazy time.

These areas - Rockville, Potomac, Bethesda - will be just fine. In and of themselves they are not big economic engines, but they are close enough to others - DC, parts of NOVA, that they will have a floor under them.

If you are looking for more significant appreciation in percentage terms, then you need to go around the beltway towards Takoma Park. You can get more value there.

Not true at all. We were looking at houses in 2005 and looked at a few in TP. Prices were way higher and inventory was in bad shape back in 2004-2007 in TP. We looked at two houses in the 900K range that needed massive work. Not just cosmetic but serious structural problems, major water damage and wood rot. TP and SS prices dropped much more after the crash. If you picked up a fixer upper after the crash or even a few years after the crash and sunk 100K into it then you may think you made some $$ in appreciation. TP and SS just started recovering now with DC exploding. Its risky to assume that they will hold their value.

I don't think Potomac is going to turn into a slum anytime soon but people are trying to sell before they lose more money. It will simply attract people who can no longer afford VA.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

I do not doubt 2004 was a different time, it was the middle of the housing bubble. People were waiving every contingency, even inspections, it was a crazy time.

These areas - Rockville, Potomac, Bethesda - will be just fine. In and of themselves they are not big economic engines, but they are close enough to others - DC, parts of NOVA, that they will have a floor under them.

If you are looking for more significant appreciation in percentage terms, then you need to go around the beltway towards Takoma Park. You can get more value there.

Not true at all. We were looking at houses in 2005 and looked at a few in TP. Prices were way higher and inventory was in bad shape back in 2004-2007 in TP. We looked at two houses in the 900K range that needed massive work. Not just cosmetic but serious structural problems, major water damage and wood rot. TP and SS prices dropped much more after the crash. If you picked up a fixer upper after the crash or even a few years after the crash and sunk 100K into it then you may think you made some $$ in appreciation. TP and SS just started recovering now with DC exploding. Its risky to assume that they will hold their value.

I don't think Potomac is going to turn into a slum anytime soon but people are trying to sell before they lose more money. It will simply attract people who can no longer afford VA.

Not surprising that prices were higher and people were trying to sell less for more during the real estate bubble, is it?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:
I do not doubt 2004 was a different time, it was the middle of the housing bubble. People were waiving every contingency, even inspections, it was a crazy time.

These areas - Rockville, Potomac, Bethesda - will be just fine. In and of themselves they are not big economic engines, but they are close enough to others - DC, parts of NOVA, that they will have a floor under them.

If you are looking for more significant appreciation in percentage terms, then you need to go around the beltway towards Takoma Park. You can get more value there.


Not true at all. We were looking at houses in 2005 and looked at a few in TP. Prices were way higher and inventory was in bad shape back in 2004-2007 in TP. We looked at two houses in the 900K range that needed massive work. Not just cosmetic but serious structural problems, major water damage and wood rot. TP and SS prices dropped much more after the crash. If you picked up a fixer upper after the crash or even a few years after the crash and sunk 100K into it then you may think you made some $$ in appreciation. TP and SS just started recovering now with DC exploding. Its risky to assume that they will hold their value.

I don't think Potomac is going to turn into a slum anytime soon but people are trying to sell before they lose more money. It will simply attract people who can no longer afford VA.


Not surprising that prices were higher and people were trying to sell less for more during the real estate bubble, is it?

Prices didn't drop as steeply in Potomac and Rockville as they did in Silver Spring. People didn't have to sell their houses and had the luxury to wait until prices started climbing again but they never did. Potomac just stagnated and dropped slowly. Tax assessments never changed so people out there think their houses are worth what they paid for them 15 years ago.

VA and DC have not only recovered but surpassed their 2004 prices. Buying a house anywhere in MoCo in 2004 was the equivalent of buying Blockbuster stock while people who bought on NoVa were buying Google stock. I think a lot of home owners in MoCo are freaked out seeing how far VA and DC have risen while MoCo is going in the other direction.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Yes, on my street in Chevy Chase, the exodus is occurring. All families have left for greener pastures and the foreclosure rate is spiking. Thieves are running rampant in order to steal copper from the abandoned homes.

I don't go out at night for fear of being mugged or being mistaken for a rival gang member. Corner boys selling H have replaced crossing guards and soccer moms.

The decay is only accelerating. They've renamed the once tony enclaves.

Chevy Chase Sections 8, 8, and 8

Rolling'Hood

Murder's Additions

Chevy Chase'in the Dragon

To be fair there has always (since the 80s at least) been a Chevy Chase Section 8, the “something isn’t quite like the rest” parts on the eastern stretches near silver spring. Kids at BCC have been making fun of that area for decades

Parts of Silver Spring that fed into BCC like Summit Hills was really bad when I grew up. We were not allowed to visit friends there.

Maybe your parents were just racists.

[Anonymous]

Really... Rockville has brought new meaning to "china town".

[Anonymous]

There are a lot of houses for sale in the more expensive parts of Rockville. I don't know if both Chinese-american and Indian-american families are moving but several of the neighborhoods that have lots of Asian families seem to have lots of houses on the market compared to the last few years. If scores at Churchill and Wootton start dropping in the next few years then I guess we'll all know that they left.

[Anonymous]

I don't know, I think MD is just prettier, calmer compared to NoVa. Due to our jobs we moved to McLean, would have loved staying in Potomac. There is appreciation and then there is quality of life, both matter and second one matters a lot.

Signed -

A former Moco resident who can't seem to get over Moco.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I don't know, I think MD is just prettier, calmer compared to NoVa. Due to our jobs we moved to McLean, would have loved staying in Potomac. There is appreciation and then there is quality of life, both matter and second one matters a lot.

Signed -

A former Moco resident who can't seem to get over Moco.

It's funny, because I think of Virginia as a gorgeous state in general. But NOVA is not attractive. Chevy Chase and parts of Potomac and Bethesda are very attractive as far as suburbs go. I think those areas of MoCo will be fine.

[Anonymous]

It is REALLY hard for a lot of sellers to realize that they can only sell for 200K below what they paid for 15 years ago. We came close to paying 1.4M back then for a house that just sold for 1.1M. I would loose my mind if we lost 300K on what at the time seemed like a good to at least stable house investment.

The time to sell in western Montgomery county was back in 2014-15. The time to sell in eastern Montgomery county was 2017-2018. Now its like everyone is racing to sell before its too late.

[Anonymous]

It is really a bad thing if the new folk leave MoCo? Potomac was at its best in the 1970s and 1980s. They want to go to VA I will gladly drive their truck over the bridge