How do you feel knowing how much money you lost out on by trying to time the market? |
Everyone has a different risk tolerance. |
And you’re about to lose a lot more keeping your money in equities right now. You know the US is about to start gambling on oil futures? lol. G fund all day, mofos! I’ll dip back in C and I when all is said and done, but it ain’t gonna be soon! Read some fking news! Maybe you’ll understand more about recessions and so forth someday. |
You know, you don’t lose money until you take it out of the market. Keeping the money in equities is playing the long game and the long game is much more likely to win than your market timing. |
| My friend has kept all her money in G fund for 20 years now. Only you know your own risk tolerance, OP. Do you what you think is best for you. |
I think that’s an incredibly poor move. I was 100% C until Nov 2025 and then went 100% I and I was rewarded handsomely. Now I’m 90% G and 10% I because I read lots of news and could see where we would be today. The market will continue to fall because oil prices. It also is very easy to do fund interchanges in TSP, so if I see a positive uptrend regarding oil and global shipments returning to normal I’ll return back to some C and I fund split because takes much more sense to be invested in equities long term than bonds. My point with this thread is that it wasn’t hard to read news and see how topsy turvy things were getting. I’m sure lots of other people could see market issues. |
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Dunning-Krueger effect is a powerful thing. Dozens of studies have shown over and over that your chances of beating the market (despite intelligence,experience, education) via market timing are extremely low.
It's amazing that nobody on DCUM has ever admitted to receiving below market returns. |
I'd love to follow your guidance! |
| Not PP, but I am 30% G fund in my tsp because its the only bond fund where you can't lose money and I have other 401K and brokerage accounts. |
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| There is that possible apocryphal Fidelity study that showed that the best performing investors fall into two categories: those who had forgotten they had Fidelity accounts and account holders who were dead. |
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Pretty happy with G move still. Might move back to I soon. Not sure! But you can all tell that we are in a stock downtrend right? You think people are gonna pay $35 for a burger and 20% tip at fking Chili’s soon?
The best part about G is that it doesn’t lose money. Ever. And once the market continues to slide, I will slide my azz right back to I and have maaaany maaaany more shares than I did when I left. You CAN time things if you read a broad section of news and can reason. |
It looks to me like the taco trade has started already. So idk, but I'm back in. |
Not real sure what we can do. I am seeing stagflation. We get a couple of teaser Green days here and there lately but overall trend is down. Easier to sit in G for another month maybe two and see if it slides further. If not, back in to I! My strategy has already saved me a ton of capital. Might not work for others, but it has for me. I mean at this specific point in time. |
And how’s that going? |