Move TSP to G for a bit?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Tuesday at 8pm is either going to be the end of the war or the beginning of the depression. That is no exaggeration.

If Iran doesn't surrender, they will destroy the refineries of Qatar. Trump has made it clear they won't get a second chance to strike back. 40% of the world's raw materials and energy, including fertilizer gone.

In such a situation sitting in anything but cash seems like idiocy.

I am also sitting on a healthy amount of cash (G Fund, hello!) but cash can (and will) be printed and the money printers will be running at full-tilt if things go south in the Persian Gulf. Therefore, sitting on hard assets like gold and bitcoin, in addition to a healthy cash position, makes sense to me. (Of course, I'm also holding my real estate investments, but those are long-term assets that I can't easily exit anyway in response to sudden events like this insane war.)

bitcoin... hard asset?! Ha.

It's much harder than my "U.S. Dollar" coin, which can and will be printed to infinity. Weimar, anyone?

I hope you've got a wheelbarrow ...

Oh man - you're one of those crazies.

Yeah. I mean, it's not like it's ever happened in history, where a highly functional, civilized nation with a strong economy completely collapsed and its currency became worthless and its government run by a madman elected by the people. I'm just imagining things lol.

Yes, but that could never happen in the US. We have too educated a populace.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Tuesday at 8pm is either going to be the end of the war or the beginning of the depression. That is no exaggeration.

If Iran doesn't surrender, they will destroy the refineries of Qatar. Trump has made it clear they won't get a second chance to strike back. 40% of the world's raw materials and energy, including fertilizer gone.

In such a situation sitting in anything but cash seems like idiocy.

Op here. Yep. Hence why I started this thread. I left equities a month ago knowing this was no ordinary time. I got out of I fund and into G fund. If I was wrong oh nooo I miss a month of stock gains and most likely jump back in to I fund. If I am right about worldwide oil issues and extended turmoil and scary sht then stocks will most likely tumble super hard and that’s what I was scared of. I guess we will see tomorrow what commander in chief chooses for the world.

Jumped to G fund today. Whatever happens happens. If I lose a little I still have plenty of time until retirement.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Tuesday at 8pm is either going to be the end of the war or the beginning of the depression. That is no exaggeration.

If Iran doesn't surrender, they will destroy the refineries of Qatar. Trump has made it clear they won't get a second chance to strike back. 40% of the world's raw materials and energy, including fertilizer gone.

In such a situation sitting in anything but cash seems like idiocy.

Op here. Yep. Hence why I started this thread. I left equities a month ago knowing this was no ordinary time. I got out of I fund and into G fund. If I was wrong oh nooo I miss a month of stock gains and most likely jump back in to I fund. If I am right about worldwide oil issues and extended turmoil and scary sht then stocks will most likely tumble super hard and that’s what I was scared of. I guess we will see tomorrow what commander in chief chooses for the world.

Jumped to G fund today. Whatever happens happens. If I lose a little I still have plenty of time until retirement.

Op here. Nice move. Makes sense.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Tuesday at 8pm is either going to be the end of the war or the beginning of the depression. That is no exaggeration.

If Iran doesn't surrender, they will destroy the refineries of Qatar. Trump has made it clear they won't get a second chance to strike back. 40% of the world's raw materials and energy, including fertilizer gone.

In such a situation sitting in anything but cash seems like idiocy.

Op here. Yep. Hence why I started this thread. I left equities a month ago knowing this was no ordinary time. I got out of I fund and into G fund. If I was wrong oh nooo I miss a month of stock gains and most likely jump back in to I fund. If I am right about worldwide oil issues and extended turmoil and scary sht then stocks will most likely tumble super hard and that’s what I was scared of. I guess we will see tomorrow what commander in chief chooses for the world.

Jumped to G fund today. Whatever happens happens. If I lose a little I still have plenty of time until retirement.

Op here. Nice move. Makes sense.

How much is a little? You are talking about potentially a huge portion of your net worth to move. If you miss out on a $200k gain over the next few months (10% on a 2 million portfolio), that's a potentially enormous hit to your future retirement when looking at compounding.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Tuesday at 8pm is either going to be the end of the war or the beginning of the depression. That is no exaggeration.

If Iran doesn't surrender, they will destroy the refineries of Qatar. Trump has made it clear they won't get a second chance to strike back. 40% of the world's raw materials and energy, including fertilizer gone.

In such a situation sitting in anything but cash seems like idiocy.

Op here. Yep. Hence why I started this thread. I left equities a month ago knowing this was no ordinary time. I got out of I fund and into G fund. If I was wrong oh nooo I miss a month of stock gains and most likely jump back in to I fund. If I am right about worldwide oil issues and extended turmoil and scary sht then stocks will most likely tumble super hard and that’s what I was scared of. I guess we will see tomorrow what commander in chief chooses for the world.

Jumped to G fund today. Whatever happens happens. If I lose a little I still have plenty of time until retirement.

Op here. Nice move. Makes sense.

How much is a little? You are talking about potentially a huge portion of your net worth to move. If you miss out on a $200k gain over the next few months (10% on a 2 million portfolio), that's a potentially enormous hit to your future retirement when looking at compounding.

Well, for one, it’s been a month since I moved it from I to G. My entire goal was to preserve capital and buy back in to C or I later. I am still ahead in that goal.

For months, I’ve been reading news of tariff related economic impacts on everything from goods prices to small companies not hiring, then there is the persistent inflation, and obviously global events.

I think things are really fked up and not sure how long our stock market can just keep rallying even with algos buying every dip. I could be totally wrong. Are 9 out 10 economists wrong about timing the next recession or whatever?

I honestly don’t care. If there is good news related at this 8pm announcement tonight, I will prob move 20% of my portfolio back to I fund. All my contributions are still going to C and I anyway, because I know how investing works and CAGR and that time in market is best, but just recently I really didn’t like the way things felt and got into G to be safe.

Who knows. This is just me. You do you. I still think we are due for a massive recession for 20 different reasons like AI impacts and articles about how hard it is, even in DC, for folks to find jobs. I am just super bearish and pessimistic in general.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Tuesday at 8pm is either going to be the end of the war or the beginning of the depression. That is no exaggeration.

If Iran doesn't surrender, they will destroy the refineries of Qatar. Trump has made it clear they won't get a second chance to strike back. 40% of the world's raw materials and energy, including fertilizer gone.

In such a situation sitting in anything but cash seems like idiocy.

Op here. Yep. Hence why I started this thread. I left equities a month ago knowing this was no ordinary time. I got out of I fund and into G fund. If I was wrong oh nooo I miss a month of stock gains and most likely jump back in to I fund. If I am right about worldwide oil issues and extended turmoil and scary sht then stocks will most likely tumble super hard and that’s what I was scared of. I guess we will see tomorrow what commander in chief chooses for the world.

Jumped to G fund today. Whatever happens happens. If I lose a little I still have plenty of time until retirement.

Op here. Nice move. Makes sense.

How much is a little? You are talking about potentially a huge portion of your net worth to move. If you miss out on a $200k gain over the next few months (10% on a 2 million portfolio), that's a potentially enormous hit to your future retirement when looking at compounding.

Ha. I have no where near 2M in my TSP. Plus I have other retirement accounts I haven’t touched.

[Anonymous]

Bunch of geniuses in this thread. Think we’ll hit a new S&P high this week?

[Anonymous]

Op here. Yeah, this is great news. Let’s see if it holds. I’m still in G and am happy for now. I still see a recession on the horizon.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Op here. Yeah, this is great news. Let’s see if it holds. I’m still in G and am happy for now. I still see a recession on the horizon.

If you haven't gotten the point yet, the criticism is not for your choice of direction, but the fact that you think you can predict it. Down/Up/Sideways doesn't matter for a retirement portfolio of someone clearly as young as you are. Retirements accounts are just fun money to play with, but it seems you're young/dumb and will need to learn the lesson the hard way.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Op here. Yeah, this is great news. Let’s see if it holds. I’m still in G and am happy for now. I still see a recession on the horizon.

If you haven't gotten the point yet, the criticism is not for your choice of direction, but the fact that you think you can predict it. Down/Up/Sideways doesn't matter for a retirement portfolio of someone clearly as young as you are. Retirements accounts are just fun money to play with, but it seems you're young/dumb and will need to learn the lesson the hard way.

*aren't

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Op here. Yeah, this is great news. Let’s see if it holds. I’m still in G and am happy for now. I still see a recession on the horizon.

If you haven't gotten the point yet, the criticism is not for your choice of direction, but the fact that you think you can predict it. Down/Up/Sideways doesn't matter for a retirement portfolio of someone clearly as young as you are. Retirements accounts are just fun money to play with, but it seems you're young/dumb and will need to learn the lesson the hard way.

I get it. I get that being in the market is usually the best course of action. However, there is more than a tentative 2-week ceasefire announced tonight, that will pump the stock market tomorrow and the next few days, to convince me that I was wrong to put my money in the G fund when I did a month ago.

There are still massive systemic issues with our economy like job loss, cpi, PPI, tariff related issues, 39 trillion in debt, and ballooning debt payments, and no clear resolution with the global turmoil. I still think we are headed for more economic woes, but have been granted a temporary reprieve by this news. I’m holding in G for a bit.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Op here. Yeah, this is great news. Let’s see if it holds. I’m still in G and am happy for now. I still see a recession on the horizon.

My TSP is just shy of 1 million. I am 50% C Fund and 50% G Fund.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Op here. Yeah, this is great news. Let’s see if it holds. I’m still in G and am happy for now. I still see a recession on the horizon.

My TSP is just shy of 1 million. I am 50% C Fund and 50% G Fund.

For how long? That is potentially a massive mistake…

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Tuesday at 8pm is either going to be the end of the war or the beginning of the depression. That is no exaggeration.

If Iran doesn't surrender, they will destroy the refineries of Qatar. Trump has made it clear they won't get a second chance to strike back. 40% of the world's raw materials and energy, including fertilizer gone.

In such a situation sitting in anything but cash seems like idiocy.

Op here. Yep. Hence why I started this thread. I left equities a month ago knowing this was no ordinary time. I got out of I fund and into G fund. If I was wrong oh nooo I miss a month of stock gains and most likely jump back in to I fund. If I am right about worldwide oil issues and extended turmoil and scary sht then stocks will most likely tumble super hard and that’s what I was scared of. I guess we will see tomorrow what commander in chief chooses for the world.

Jumped to G fund today. Whatever happens happens. If I lose a little I still have plenty of time until retirement.

WOW! Your timing couldn’t have been worse…missing a +2.5% day will permanently stunt your portfolio. And now you have to sweat when to get back into equities.

And for the millionth time: pick an asset allocation that will let you sleep well at night, invest dutifully every paycheck, and don’t futz with it. This practically guarantees a 100% chance of success over 20+ years of consistent investing. Stand there, don’t do anything! This too shall pass.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Tuesday at 8pm is either going to be the end of the war or the beginning of the depression. That is no exaggeration.

If Iran doesn't surrender, they will destroy the refineries of Qatar. Trump has made it clear they won't get a second chance to strike back. 40% of the world's raw materials and energy, including fertilizer gone.

In such a situation sitting in anything but cash seems like idiocy.

Op here. Yep. Hence why I started this thread. I left equities a month ago knowing this was no ordinary time. I got out of I fund and into G fund. If I was wrong oh nooo I miss a month of stock gains and most likely jump back in to I fund. If I am right about worldwide oil issues and extended turmoil and scary sht then stocks will most likely tumble super hard and that’s what I was scared of. I guess we will see tomorrow what commander in chief chooses for the world.

Jumped to G fund today. Whatever happens happens. If I lose a little I still have plenty of time until retirement.

WOW! Your timing couldn’t have been worse…missing a +2.5% day will permanently stunt your portfolio. And now you have to sweat when to get back into equities.

And for the millionth time: pick an asset allocation that will let you sleep well at night, invest dutifully every paycheck, and don’t futz with it. This practically guarantees a 100% chance of success over 20+ years of consistent investing. Stand there, don’t do anything! This too shall pass.

Wild stuff. I wonder if they immediately got back in or are letting it ride? Get back in and you lock in an unnecessary 2.5% loss that amounts to something farily sizeable over the long haul. But if you don't, you risk the problem getting worse. Glad I never make rash financial decisions and ever have to worry about this stuff since I don't sell...