What are your political predictions for 2024?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:So far my prediction is that overwhelming majority of these big predictions the rest of you have made won't pan out.

This! And we don’t need debates. We know where both candidates stand:
Biden got us through COVID successfully and economy is up, inflation down.

Trump wants to stay out of prison, be a king and will yank our economy (and let Putin take Ukraine).

My money’s on Biden.

Debates would help, though. For as much as MAGA tries to paint Biden as the one struggling, Trump is deteriorating fast. He rarely makes any sense when speaking and gets easily confused.

Debates would help?? Help who? A Trump/Biden debate would only reaffirm to the rest of the world how the US will be led until January 2029 by someone who is mentally unfit for a very demanding job. A debate between Trump and Biden, assuming they do become the nominees, would be a complete embarrassment for the entire country and would only put our country at a strategic disadvantage globally for the next few years. Not helpful.

[Anonymous]

Biden will win.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Trump wins, Republicans take Senate, Democrats take House. Trump says federal troops will be out fist day of new administration and that he will ban abortion. Woman are outraged, demonstrations happen. 2025 is looked upon with dread throughout the world as there will be bloodshed on American streets. People like Kyle Rittenhouse will be out in full force.

Why would he do this? How would it serve him?

Strong man actions and tactics appeal to him as do many who have worked for him and want to work for him in a new GOP admin. There are more than a few GOPers, heck, 2/3rds of SCOTUS, who would be stoked with both a national ban as well as arresting and jailing people engaged in lawful dissent.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Trump wins, Republicans take Senate, Democrats take House. Trump says federal troops will be out fist day of new administration and that he will ban abortion. Woman are outraged, demonstrations happen. 2025 is looked upon with dread throughout the world as there will be bloodshed on American streets. People like Kyle Rittenhouse will be out in full force.

Why would he do this? How would it serve him?

Strong man actions and tactics appeal to him as do many who have worked for him and want to work for him in a new GOP admin. There are more than a few GOPers, heck, 2/3rds of SCOTUS, who would be stoked with both a national ban as well as arresting and jailing people engaged in lawful dissent.

Agree with this. But Trump won’t need another election.

He will only do this if it enriches him or punishes those who “wronged” him. He doesn’t give a shit about fetuses.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Demanding the President and leader of the free world participate in meaningless debates is stupid. It would be unheard for a President singlehandedly engaged in wars against Russia, Palestinian extremists, and Iran and its terrorist proxies to be forced into a campaign debate. People who would suggest otherwise are unpatriotic and anti-democracy.

Wut?
What president is single-handedly fighting a war? What war is he fighting?

The President. He is leading the fight against Russia and Hamas. Where have you been???

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I think Biden will win again but step down in 2027 bc of dementia and also so Kamala can run as an incumbent (and she will win too).

Also, I hate that I really think this will happen.

That is ridiculous for lots of reasons - including that Biden doesn't want to hand the WH to Republicans and he can see as well as anyone that people mostly don't like Kamala and she probably wouldn't win an election.

If Biden steps down for health reasons it will be fairly early into his 2nd term. This will allow for: Kamala Harris to get some experience as president; the public to get to know her a little more and to see if she could win election on her own in 2028; if she is coming across very unlikeable, incompetent, and/or unfavorable/scandal-plagued, it allows for 2028 primary challengers to get their houses in order in plenty of time before the 2028 election.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Trump wins, Republicans take Senate, Democrats take House. Trump says federal troops will be out fist day of new administration and that he will ban abortion. Woman are outraged, demonstrations happen. 2025 is looked upon with dread throughout the world as there will be bloodshed on American streets. People like Kyle Rittenhouse will be out in full force.

Why would he do this? How would it serve him?

Strong man actions and tactics appeal to him as do many who have worked for him and want to work for him in a new GOP admin. There are more than a few GOPers, heck, 2/3rds of SCOTUS, who would be stoked with both a national ban as well as arresting and jailing people engaged in lawful dissent.

Ah, you mean what the Democrats did to a lot of the J6 protesters?

Democrats didn't do shit to J6 protesters. They did it all to themselves. That's what happens when you get pumped up on some fat orange guy's incessant lies to the point where you storm the capitol, attack police, smash windows and doors, loot House offices, smear shit on the hallowed walls of Congress, and disrupt a lawful and legal proceeding of certifying LEGAL electoral votes.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Biden is not afraid to debate Trump. The Rs declared a couple years ago that they are no longer participating in the debate commission. They pretty much signaled no interest in national debates then.

+1 Trump will refuse to debate Biden. Not the other way around.

+2

[Anonymous]

1.) Trump is GOP nominee
2.) Biden is DNC nominee
3.) Trump and Biden die or have a stroke
4.) 2024 will be a last minute match-up between Kamala Harris and Nikki Haley
5.) Nikki will win but just barely

[Anonymous]

2024 will be a sh*tshow.

Trump and Biden will be the nominees. The likelihood of one or both of these rapidly declining geriatrics dying on the campaign trail is very high. Presidential campaigns are very intense, very stressful, and 80 year olds have no business participating in them. Obese and high strung Trump is one Big Mac away from a heart attack. And shuffling Joe is one fall away from a broken hip and terminal decline. Not to mention dementia, a stroke, a brain aneurysm and all the other things that get you when you are older than rocks.

No one wants Kamala Harris to be president, and Trump will undoubtedly choose some hack sycophant for his VP. He's not making the Pence mistake again. He needs a cult member for backup. So it'll be someone like Kari Lake.

My brain hurts imagining all of this.

Meanwhile, anti-vax conspiracy nut RFK Jr is presently polling at 22 percent nationally. That number is only going to go up. In comparison to Trump and Biden, he will seem youthful. He's 69. And he will seem comparably sane, because we will have a year of Trump and Biden having brain melts and saying stupid sh*t.

But it's unclear who he's taking votes away from. It's not like Nader in 2000. Kennedy gets a lot of Republican votes. And he gets a lot of disaffected Democrats. It is absolutely impossible to predict how this plays out in swing states, where margins are less than 4 percent.

Who knows.

Meanwhile, it's a terrible map for Democrats in the Senate this year. Republicans will take it back. Probably 51-49. McConnell will be gently pushed aside. Thune will be the next Senate majority leader. Democrats will take back the House, and pretty convincingly. Would guess a 15 seat majority if not more. Jeffries becomes Speaker.

And then four years of mayhem. Because our presidential system is utterly broken. If it's Trump, we are going right back to riots and burning cities. If it's Biden, would expect right wing terror and a completely radicalized progressive youth.

Absolutely no one in America wants to see a redux of Biden-Trump. And yet here we are. There will be consequences. Two vain, narcissistic old men have hijacked American politics. If either is elected, I'd expect we get to a 1859 moment. Dancing with the devil either way.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:2024 will be a sh*tshow.

Trump and Biden will be the nominees. The likelihood of one or both of these rapidly declining geriatrics dying on the campaign trail is very high. Presidential campaigns are very intense, very stressful, and 80 year olds have no business participating in them. Obese and high strung Trump is one Big Mac away from a heart attack. And shuffling Joe is one fall away from a broken hip and terminal decline. Not to mention dementia, a stroke, a brain aneurysm and all the other things that get you when you are older than rocks.

No one wants Kamala Harris to be president, and Trump will undoubtedly choose some hack sycophant for his VP. He's not making the Pence mistake again. He needs a cult member for backup. So it'll be someone like Kari Lake.

My brain hurts imagining all of this.

Meanwhile, anti-vax conspiracy nut RFK Jr is presently polling at 22 percent nationally. That number is only going to go up. In comparison to Trump and Biden, he will seem youthful. He's 69. And he will seem comparably sane, because we will have a year of Trump and Biden having brain melts and saying stupid sh*t.

But it's unclear who he's taking votes away from. It's not like Nader in 2000. Kennedy gets a lot of Republican votes. And he gets a lot of disaffected Democrats. It is absolutely impossible to predict how this plays out in swing states, where margins are less than 4 percent.

Who knows.

Meanwhile, it's a terrible map for Democrats in the Senate this year. Republicans will take it back. Probably 51-49. McConnell will be gently pushed aside. Thune will be the next Senate majority leader. Democrats will take back the House, and pretty convincingly. Would guess a 15 seat majority if not more. Jeffries becomes Speaker.

And then four years of mayhem. Because our presidential system is utterly broken. If it's Trump, we are going right back to riots and burning cities. If it's Biden, would expect right wing terror and a completely radicalized progressive youth.

Absolutely no one in America wants to see a redux of Biden-Trump. And yet here we are. There will be consequences. Two vain, narcissistic old men have hijacked American politics. If either is elected, I'd expect we get to a 1859 moment. Dancing with the devil either way.

[Anonymous]

1. Trump wins IA, NH, SC
2. Trump sweeps Super Tuesday and becomes GOP nominee
3. Trumps selects Kristi Noem for VP
4. Economy improves more due to interest rate cuts
5. Inflation comes down
6. Trump gets convicted in at least one case
7. Biden wins PA, WI, MI and gets re-elected

Democracy is saved.

It's the economy, stupid.

[Anonymous]

Trump will not have a conviction on his record.

He’ll be reelected, again while losing the popular vote.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:2024 will be a sh*tshow.

Trump and Biden will be the nominees. The likelihood of one or both of these rapidly declining geriatrics dying on the campaign trail is very high. Presidential campaigns are very intense, very stressful, and 80 year olds have no business participating in them. Obese and high strung Trump is one Big Mac away from a heart attack. And shuffling Joe is one fall away from a broken hip and terminal decline. Not to mention dementia, a stroke, a brain aneurysm and all the other things that get you when you are older than rocks.

No one wants Kamala Harris to be president, and Trump will undoubtedly choose some hack sycophant for his VP. He's not making the Pence mistake again. He needs a cult member for backup. So it'll be someone like Kari Lake.

My brain hurts imagining all of this.

Meanwhile, anti-vax conspiracy nut RFK Jr is presently polling at 22 percent nationally. That number is only going to go up. In comparison to Trump and Biden, he will seem youthful. He's 69. And he will seem comparably sane, because we will have a year of Trump and Biden having brain melts and saying stupid sh*t.

But it's unclear who he's taking votes away from. It's not like Nader in 2000. Kennedy gets a lot of Republican votes. And he gets a lot of disaffected Democrats. It is absolutely impossible to predict how this plays out in swing states, where margins are less than 4 percent.

Who knows.

Meanwhile, it's a terrible map for Democrats in the Senate this year. Republicans will take it back. Probably 51-49. McConnell will be gently pushed aside. Thune will be the next Senate majority leader. Democrats will take back the House, and pretty convincingly. Would guess a 15 seat majority if not more. Jeffries becomes Speaker.

And then four years of mayhem. Because our presidential system is utterly broken. If it's Trump, we are going right back to riots and burning cities. If it's Biden, would expect right wing terror and a completely radicalized progressive youth.

Absolutely no one in America wants to see a redux of Biden-Trump. And yet here we are. There will be consequences. Two vain, narcissistic old men have hijacked American politics. If either is elected, I'd expect we get to a 1859 moment. Dancing with the devil either way.

The map is hard for Dems but not impossible. NC, TX, OH, heck even AR just saw record filings for Democrats in state gov. Just having a contested state race increases turnout for National races by 1 - 1.5%.

I choose to look at real data, not polls or anecdotal evidence. Democrats have been crushing elections since 2018 (except VA in 2021). The party is strong, the grassroots are kicking arse, and consumer confidence is aligning with reality. And what does GOP have? Abortion bans, incompetence, and a leader who poops in diapers.

I'd rather be us than them.

[Anonymous]

Trump will die. Chaos on the R side to choose a nominee. Biden will decide later in the year not to run, citing health issues. Kamala will not be on the ticket. Ds will win.