NYT: Profound increase in black voters who support Trump

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Serious question: how significant is the black vote? Black people are 12% of Americans, right? And the voting levels are generally lower than in other racial groups?
So even if some black people change their mind and vote Republican, how significant is it?

NYT has had some interesting content about this. They recently did a thing on it in their podcast called The Daily, that's worth a listen. The black vote has been the most reliable for the Democrats, and that is shifting. It's not a massive shift, but the fact it is happening among younger black voters is a sign that this may not be a voting demographic they can take for granted. They go into why young black voters, especially male, are peeling off.

I’m a democrat and would never vote for Trump but I honestly think Biden keeps missing the mark. I’m very worried and hope his campaign is taking these signs seriously. The DC democrats I know keep saying Trump “can’t win again”. In 2016 they said Trump can’t win” and we know how that turned out.

I think it was a little more open-ended in 2016 how a Trump presidency could possible go.

I think it's pretty clear what the post 2024 intentions would be, given their actions in 2017-1/6/2021, and the fact that they are laying out their dubious intentions for us clear as day in Project 2025.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Serious question: how significant is the black vote? Black people are 12% of Americans, right? And the voting levels are generally lower than in other racial groups?
So even if some black people change their mind and vote Republican, how significant is it?

NYT has had some interesting content about this. They recently did a thing on it in their podcast called The Daily, that's worth a listen. The black vote has been the most reliable for the Democrats, and that is shifting. It's not a massive shift, but the fact it is happening among younger black voters is a sign that this may not be a voting demographic they can take for granted. They go into why young black voters, especially male, are peeling off.

I’m a democrat and would never vote for Trump but I honestly think Biden keeps missing the mark. I’m very worried and hope his campaign is taking these signs seriously. The DC democrats I know keep saying Trump “can’t win again”. In 2016 they said Trump can’t win” and we know how that turned out.

I think it was a little more open-ended in 2016 how a Trump presidency could possible go.

I think it's pretty clear what the post 2024 intentions would be, given their actions in 2017-1/6/2021, and the fact that they are laying out their dubious intentions for us clear as day in Project 2025.

That can go either way. People who look around and things were better a few years ago will have a different view than people who think things are great now.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It’s a free country. If black people feel Trump will do better for them then they can vote accordingly.

I don't think it's unreasonable to assume that a Republican in the White House would be better for black folks in several areas. One, the current USAO in DC is Matthew Graves, a Biden appointee that declines to prosecute 67 percent of all arrests here. As a result, crime is once again an epidemic in DC - every corner of it. And the vast, vast majority of victims of violent crime in DC are black people. I don't know if people here actually talk to black people, but they went action - more police, more prosecutions, even the National Guard - to deal with crime. And that will never happen as long as Biden is president.

The border is another issue. Just because everyone is a shade of brown doesn't mean blacks naturally feel an affinity for Venezuelans who don't speak a word of English and whose children are overwhelming school districts around the country. Plus the additional pressure on housing and social services. Very often the feeling in the black community is that all those millions of illegal migrants are simply cutting to the front of the line.

Biden does not engender much loyalty in the black community. It's not like Obama. It's not even like the Clintons. I would not be surprised if 25 percent of blacks vote Republican. And I suspect turnout will be low. Add that to all the young people upset about Israel and I think Biden is going to have a lot of difficulty getting to a 2nd term. He's a bad candidate for this moment in time.

And Trump is a good one?

Of course not. Almost no one in this country wants to see a redux of Trump vs Biden. However, Biden is weak with his base. He needs college educated women, minorities, and young people to win the electoral college. His support among younger voters has been slipping rapidly after events in Israel. Many black folks lack any enthusiasm for Biden. And I don't think college educated women who are upset by Roes is enough to win this election.

Biden is extremely weal in several important ways. The people posting here tend to be well to do. I think they forget how devastating four years of serious inflation - food, rent, transportation - has been for most families. By purchasing power, the vast majority of Americans are significantly poorer than they were four years ago. Also, democrats are on the wrong side of crime. People look at San Francisco or Portland or DC and think no thank you. Give me Sheriff Bubba instead. And most importantly, Biden is far too old. He presents as a doddering old man and no one wants that in a president.

No one loves Trump either of course. I think average people remember his presidency as noisy but ultimately harmless. All he did legislatively was pass some tax cuts. And people felt wealthier then than they do now. I think there's an extremely high chance he defeats Biden. And if republicans do get it together and nominate Haley instead, there is no chance Biden wins the White House. It was incredibly stupid of democrats to presume that Americans want an 86 year old man who shuffles and mumbles to be their president.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It’s a free country. If black people feel Trump will do better for them then they can vote accordingly.

I don't think it's unreasonable to assume that a Republican in the White House would be better for black folks in several areas. One, the current USAO in DC is Matthew Graves, a Biden appointee that declines to prosecute 67 percent of all arrests here. As a result, crime is once again an epidemic in DC - every corner of it. And the vast, vast majority of victims of violent crime in DC are black people. I don't know if people here actually talk to black people, but they went action - more police, more prosecutions, even the National Guard - to deal with crime. And that will never happen as long as Biden is president.

The border is another issue. Just because everyone is a shade of brown doesn't mean blacks naturally feel an affinity for Venezuelans who don't speak a word of English and whose children are overwhelming school districts around the country. Plus the additional pressure on housing and social services. Very often the feeling in the black community is that all those millions of illegal migrants are simply cutting to the front of the line.

Biden does not engender much loyalty in the black community. It's not like Obama. It's not even like the Clintons. I would not be surprised if 25 percent of blacks vote Republican. And I suspect turnout will be low. Add that to all the young people upset about Israel and I think Biden is going to have a lot of difficulty getting to a 2nd term. He's a bad candidate for this moment in time.

And Trump is a good one?

Of course not. Almost no one in this country wants to see a redux of Trump vs Biden. However, Biden is weak with his base. He needs college educated women, minorities, and young people to win the electoral college. His support among younger voters has been slipping rapidly after events in Israel. Many black folks lack any enthusiasm for Biden. And I don't think college educated women who are upset by Roes is enough to win this election.

[…]

It’s not just “college educated women” who are “upset” by “Roes.” It’s a plurality of the country who don’t like the fascism of the GOP; abortion is just the first place the GOP thought they were safe and where they really let themselves loose with their authoritarianism.

Black people know that it’s the GOP who continually chisels their votes away; if so many of them were going to magically vote for fascism, they’d probably stop carving up the Black vote.

We’re in the weird ebb in a world where the media does the GOP’s work for them. Once Trump starts talking and reminds people of how awful those four years were, plus how bad his dementia* has gotten since he’s been gone, people are going to flock to Biden. Project 2025 is real. Regressives over-reaching at the state level is real. Women without full citizenship is real.

The GOP offers nothing but hate, pure id.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It’s a free country. If black people feel Trump will do better for them then they can vote accordingly.

I don't think it's unreasonable to assume that a Republican in the White House would be better for black folks in several areas. One, the current USAO in DC is Matthew Graves, a Biden appointee that declines to prosecute 67 percent of all arrests here. As a result, crime is once again an epidemic in DC - every corner of it. And the vast, vast majority of victims of violent crime in DC are black people. I don't know if people here actually talk to black people, but they went action - more police, more prosecutions, even the National Guard - to deal with crime. And that will never happen as long as Biden is president.

The border is another issue. Just because everyone is a shade of brown doesn't mean blacks naturally feel an affinity for Venezuelans who don't speak a word of English and whose children are overwhelming school districts around the country. Plus the additional pressure on housing and social services. Very often the feeling in the black community is that all those millions of illegal migrants are simply cutting to the front of the line.

Biden does not engender much loyalty in the black community. It's not like Obama. It's not even like the Clintons. I would not be surprised if 25 percent of blacks vote Republican. And I suspect turnout will be low. Add that to all the young people upset about Israel and I think Biden is going to have a lot of difficulty getting to a 2nd term. He's a bad candidate for this moment in time.

And Trump is a good one?

Of course not. Almost no one in this country wants to see a redux of Trump vs Biden. However, Biden is weak with his base. He needs college educated women, minorities, and young people to win the electoral college. His support among younger voters has been slipping rapidly after events in Israel. Many black folks lack any enthusiasm for Biden. And I don't think college educated women who are upset by Roes is enough to win this election.

Biden is extremely weal in several important ways. The people posting here tend to be well to do. I think they forget how devastating four years of serious inflation - food, rent, transportation - has been for most families. By purchasing power, the vast majority of Americans are significantly poorer than they were four years ago. Also, democrats are on the wrong side of crime. People look at San Francisco or Portland or DC and think no thank you. Give me Sheriff Bubba instead. And most importantly, Biden is far too old. He presents as a doddering old man and no one wants that in a president.

No one loves Trump either of course. I think average people remember his presidency as noisy but ultimately harmless. All he did legislatively was pass some tax cuts. And people felt wealthier then than they do now. I think there's an extremely high chance he defeats Biden. And if republicans do get it together and nominate Haley instead, there is no chance Biden wins the White House. It was incredibly stupid of democrats to presume that Americans want an 86 year old man who shuffles and mumbles to be their president.

FWIW inflation now is lower than it was in 1984 when Ronald Reagan won 49 states and 59% of the popular vote.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:We are just going to have to wait until Nov 2024. Until then, everything is speculation. Polls have burned all in the past. Who knows?!

+1

Color me skeptical that 22% of Black men are headed over to the GOP. I mean, maybe. But Republicans are pretty bald about the fact that they don’t think Black people are human.

This is such garbage and I hope that one day you realize that your "I like you black people, regardless of what the right wing says about you guys" routine is actually incredibly racist. Its gross that you even say these vile sentiments out loud, claiming you're just paraphrasing the other guys.

You know many of us know Republicans in real life, right? And we can see the way you act? It’s not a secret that the GOP collectively hates Black people.

Oh OK.

Just keep importing cheap underground labor to bring everyone's wages down to the floor while they scream about not being able to make ends meet and our cities being pushed to the edge on every front. This policy makes great sense!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:This seems like yet another article in a series of articles written by a media that is fixated on portraying everything as a disaster for Biden. It's hard to take it seriously anymore.

Maybe Trump has some superficial lead among black voters right now. Just wait until he's the nominee and keeps opening up his mouth to remind black voters of his true nature.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It’s a free country. If black people feel Trump will do better for them then they can vote accordingly.

I don't think it's unreasonable to assume that a Republican in the White House would be better for black folks in several areas. One, the current USAO in DC is Matthew Graves, a Biden appointee that declines to prosecute 67 percent of all arrests here. As a result, crime is once again an epidemic in DC - every corner of it. And the vast, vast majority of victims of violent crime in DC are black people. I don't know if people here actually talk to black people, but they went action - more police, more prosecutions, even the National Guard - to deal with crime. And that will never happen as long as Biden is president.

The border is another issue. Just because everyone is a shade of brown doesn't mean blacks naturally feel an affinity for Venezuelans who don't speak a word of English and whose children are overwhelming school districts around the country. Plus the additional pressure on housing and social services. Very often the feeling in the black community is that all those millions of illegal migrants are simply cutting to the front of the line.

Biden does not engender much loyalty in the black community. It's not like Obama. It's not even like the Clintons. I would not be surprised if 25 percent of blacks vote Republican. And I suspect turnout will be low. Add that to all the young people upset about Israel and I think Biden is going to have a lot of difficulty getting to a 2nd term. He's a bad candidate for this moment in time.

And Trump is a good one?

Of course not. Almost no one in this country wants to see a redux of Trump vs Biden. However, Biden is weak with his base. He needs college educated women, minorities, and young people to win the electoral college. His support among younger voters has been slipping rapidly after events in Israel. Many black folks lack any enthusiasm for Biden. And I don't think college educated women who are upset by Roes is enough to win this election.

[…]

It’s not just “college educated women” who are “upset” by “Roes.” It’s a plurality of the country who don’t like the fascism of the GOP; abortion is just the first place the GOP thought they were safe and where they really let themselves loose with their authoritarianism.

Black people know that it’s the GOP who continually chisels their votes away; if so many of them were going to magically vote for fascism, they’d probably stop carving up the Black vote.

We’re in the weird ebb in a world where the media does the GOP’s work for them. Once Trump starts talking and reminds people of how awful those four years were, plus how bad his dementia* has gotten since he’s been gone, people are going to flock to Biden. Project 2025 is real. Regressives over-reaching at the state level is real. Women without full citizenship is real.

The GOP offers nothing but hate, pure id.

I actually suspect this exact type of messaging, "the GOP offers nothing but hate," is a huge part of voter alienation. It's shorthand for saying, "if you have concerns about the border, the economy, crime, or education, you must be a racist." It's very dismissive and also forgets the fact that POC live in the same world as everyone else and have the same concerns.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:How do the Dems remain so tone deaf? NYT reported polling data showing skyrocketing support among black voters for Trump:

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/06/us/politics/biden-trump-black-voters-poll-democrats.html


People across the board are sick and tired of the out of the control crime like car jackings and shootings that have skyrocketed under Biden and are a result of local policies enacted by the Democrats. All too often that crime is occurring in black neighborhoods. That and the massive influx of illegal immigrants that have been pouring into the country courtesy of Biden and the Democrats is causing a significant erosion in the confidence of Dems to be able to govern. People want law and order and oour borders to be restored.

It is almost inevitable Trump is going to win. He is leading Biden by double digits now.

I don't see a single poll where Trump is leading Biden by double digits.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/

DP. There are at least two on your own link.

Both of those pit Harris against Trump, not Biden

[Anonymous]

Last time Biden was "Bye Don"

Now he will be "Bye Dem"

[Anonymous]

Thread title should be “Profound increase in poll respondents who say they’re Black and will support Trump.”

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Thread title should be “Profound increase in poll respondents who say they’re Black and will support Trump.”

You mean like when Biden told Charlemagne tha God that if you don't vote for him, he does not consider you authentically black? That was certainly bold politics.

[Anonymous]

Sure, let's all vote for the guy who wants to invoke the Insurrection Act next time there's a BLM rally. What could possibly go wrong?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Sure, let's all vote for the guy who wants to invoke the Insurrection Act next time there's a BLM rally. What could possibly go wrong?

No one believes this bs anymore.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It’s a free country. If black people feel Trump will do better for them then they can vote accordingly.

I don't think it's unreasonable to assume that a Republican in the White House would be better for black folks in several areas. One, the current USAO in DC is Matthew Graves, a Biden appointee that declines to prosecute 67 percent of all arrests here. As a result, crime is once again an epidemic in DC - every corner of it. And the vast, vast majority of victims of violent crime in DC are black people. I don't know if people here actually talk to black people, but they went action - more police, more prosecutions, even the National Guard - to deal with crime. And that will never happen as long as Biden is president.

The border is another issue. Just because everyone is a shade of brown doesn't mean blacks naturally feel an affinity for Venezuelans who don't speak a word of English and whose children are overwhelming school districts around the country. Plus the additional pressure on housing and social services. Very often the feeling in the black community is that all those millions of illegal migrants are simply cutting to the front of the line.

Biden does not engender much loyalty in the black community. It's not like Obama. It's not even like the Clintons. I would not be surprised if 25 percent of blacks vote Republican. And I suspect turnout will be low. Add that to all the young people upset about Israel and I think Biden is going to have a lot of difficulty getting to a 2nd term. He's a bad candidate for this moment in time.

And Trump is a good one?

Of course not. Almost no one in this country wants to see a redux of Trump vs Biden. However, Biden is weak with his base. He needs college educated women, minorities, and young people to win the electoral college. His support among younger voters has been slipping rapidly after events in Israel. Many black folks lack any enthusiasm for Biden. And I don't think college educated women who are upset by Roes is enough to win this election.

[…]

It’s not just “college educated women” who are “upset” by “Roes.” It’s a plurality of the country who don’t like the fascism of the GOP; abortion is just the first place the GOP thought they were safe and where they really let themselves loose with their authoritarianism.

Black people know that it’s the GOP who continually chisels their votes away; if so many of them were going to magically vote for fascism, they’d probably stop carving up the Black vote.

We’re in the weird ebb in a world where the media does the GOP’s work for them. Once Trump starts talking and reminds people of how awful those four years were, plus how bad his dementia* has gotten since he’s been gone, people are going to flock to Biden. Project 2025 is real. Regressives over-reaching at the state level is real. Women without full citizenship is real.

The GOP offers nothing but hate, pure id.

I actually suspect this exact type of messaging, "the GOP offers nothing but hate," is a huge part of voter alienation. It's shorthand for saying, "if you have concerns about the border, the economy, crime, or education, you must be a racist." It's very dismissive and also forgets the fact that POC live in the same world as everyone else and have the same concerns.

I’m the pp you’re replying to and nice try but what does the GOP offer on those issues, other than hate?

The border: they refuse to legislate on it. They do make fun of immigrants, both legal and not, and traffick asylum seekers around the country in an attempt to punish blue cities.

The economy: other than tax cuts for the uber wealthy and cutting services for the rest of us, what do they offer?

Crime: more vilification - ironically for this thread, usually of Black people, less so of other minorities. But what do they offer? I guess more money for privatized prisons and harsher sentences for things like drugs. But no actual policies to help with crime. Oh I guess your party’s desire to make abortion illegal will create more crime in 18 years, so I guess your party offers more crime.

Education: vouchers and book bans, I guess?

The GOP offers nothing but hatred. If you actually want to talk policy instead of idiotic right wing slogans and chewy mouth talk nonsense, let’s do it. Because I don’t see the GOP offering anything for anyone but rich old angry White men. And that’s not racism, that’s reality.