i'm a lifelong Democrat, voting for Sullivan Reardon AMA

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:MoCo is roughly 62% Dem, 15% Republican, and 24% independent (no party affiliation) based on Sept 2022 data. Let's say Sully got all the Republican and Ind votes. That puts him at 39%. He needs another 11%, which would be about 18% of Dems to vote for him.

In the primary, Elrich got 39% of the Dem vote, Blair got 39% of the Dem vote, and Reimer got 20% of the Dem vote.

So.. would at least 30% of Blair voters decide to vote for Sully? It's possible. A lot of Blair voters were vehemently anti-Elrich. Then that's not even looking at what Riemer supporters would do.

Of course, I'm still making a lot of assumptions, a big one being the Independents will go for Sully, and also that we'll see even turnout among those 3 party groups. It's still a bit of a long shot for Sully, but it's not impossible either.

This might be a compelling argument if it weren't for the evidence from 2018, when Floreen ran as an independent. Elrich still got 60% of the vote. The percentage of Dems who would actually switch votes (even for an independent) are miniscule, the number who would vote R are even smaller.

DCUM is not representative of the electorate. DCUM is representative of UMC professionals, 35-55.
Elrich is not as broadly disliked as you think - his favorability polls have always been above water. The only reason why he almost lost to Blair is because millions of dollars were spent on campaigns claiming that Elrich was the sole reason for the housing affordability crisis. Most people who are MC, LMC, or generally not political activists are fine with Elrich or they actually really like him. He has a lot support among Latinos in Wheaton and Ethiopian immigrants in Silver Spring, for example.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:MoCo is roughly 62% Dem, 15% Republican, and 24% independent (no party affiliation) based on Sept 2022 data. Let's say Sully got all the Republican and Ind votes. That puts him at 39%. He needs another 11%, which would be about 18% of Dems to vote for him.

In the primary, Elrich got 39% of the Dem vote, Blair got 39% of the Dem vote, and Reimer got 20% of the Dem vote.

So.. would at least 30% of Blair voters decide to vote for Sully? It's possible. A lot of Blair voters were vehemently anti-Elrich. Then that's not even looking at what Riemer supporters would do.

Of course, I'm still making a lot of assumptions, a big one being the Independents will go for Sully, and also that we'll see even turnout among those 3 party groups. It's still a bit of a long shot for Sully, but it's not impossible either.

This might be a compelling argument if it weren't for the evidence from 2018, when Floreen ran as an independent. Elrich still got 60% of the vote. The percentage of Dems who would actually switch votes (even for an independent) are miniscule, the number who would vote R are even smaller.

This. This is a permanently deep blue county. Not going to change anytime soon.

Voters are incredibly entrenched in their identity as ‘Democrats’. I hear it in talking to my neighbors. They hate the Democrat policies and candidates but just cannot and will not ever vote for a Republican.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Nope, not voting for any Republicans. I used to, but after the Capitol riot and Roe v. Wade, not crossing the aisle anymore.

But you were okay with Antifa and its violent garbage. GFY!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Nope, not voting for any Republicans. I used to, but after the Capitol riot and Roe v. Wade, not crossing the aisle anymore.

But you were okay with Antifa and its violent garbage. GFY!

Exactly! And the BLM riots were perfectly fine.

There are crazies on both sides. That’s a ridiculous thing to base your vote on or not vote on.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:MoCo is roughly 62% Dem, 15% Republican, and 24% independent (no party affiliation) based on Sept 2022 data. Let's say Sully got all the Republican and Ind votes. That puts him at 39%. He needs another 11%, which would be about 18% of Dems to vote for him.

In the primary, Elrich got 39% of the Dem vote, Blair got 39% of the Dem vote, and Reimer got 20% of the Dem vote.

So.. would at least 30% of Blair voters decide to vote for Sully? It's possible. A lot of Blair voters were vehemently anti-Elrich. Then that's not even looking at what Riemer supporters would do.

Of course, I'm still making a lot of assumptions, a big one being the Independents will go for Sully, and also that we'll see even turnout among those 3 party groups. It's still a bit of a long shot for Sully, but it's not impossible either.

This might be a compelling argument if it weren't for the evidence from 2018, when Floreen ran as an independent. Elrich still got 60% of the vote. The percentage of Dems who would actually switch votes (even for an independent) are miniscule, the number who would vote R are even smaller.

In that race, the R was Robin Ficker, who was about the worst possible candidate they could put up.

[Anonymous]

1) How come you don’t know his name? If you’re going to shill for someone in the guise of doing an AMA, shouldn’t you know his name?

2) Why doesn’t he prominently list his political party on his page? When I look for information about a candidate, one of the things I’m interested in is why they’ve chosen to be a part of a specific party, and how closely they adhere to their party line.

I have more questions, but responses to these two will make it clearer to me whether or not it’s worth it to ask additional questions.

[Anonymous]

It happened to my dad when he got old too, OP.

[Anonymous]

Name 10 great things Biden has done.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:MoCo is roughly 62% Dem, 15% Republican, and 24% independent (no party affiliation) based on Sept 2022 data. Let's say Sully got all the Republican and Ind votes. That puts him at 39%. He needs another 11%, which would be about 18% of Dems to vote for him.

In the primary, Elrich got 39% of the Dem vote, Blair got 39% of the Dem vote, and Reimer got 20% of the Dem vote.

So.. would at least 30% of Blair voters decide to vote for Sully? It's possible. A lot of Blair voters were vehemently anti-Elrich. Then that's not even looking at what Riemer supporters would do.

Of course, I'm still making a lot of assumptions, a big one being the Independents will go for Sully, and also that we'll see even turnout among those 3 party groups. It's still a bit of a long shot for Sully, but it's not impossible either.

This might be a compelling argument if it weren't for the evidence from 2018, when Floreen ran as an independent. Elrich still got 60% of the vote. The percentage of Dems who would actually switch votes (even for an independent) are miniscule, the number who would vote R are even smaller.

In that race, the R was Robin Ficker, who was about the worst possible candidate they could put up.

Yeah, and back in 2018 this board was full of posts of people claiming they were lifelong D but were voting for Ficker. Ficker got 16%, Floreen 19%, and Elrich 65%. Do the math, even if every Floreen voter (prob a combo of D and R voters) decided to vote for Sullivan, Elrich still wins by 30 pts. My guess is a number of Floreen voters are either going to vote for Elrich or not vote at all. My prediction is Elrich 70%, Sullivan 30%.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:MoCo is roughly 62% Dem, 15% Republican, and 24% independent (no party affiliation) based on Sept 2022 data. Let's say Sully got all the Republican and Ind votes. That puts him at 39%. He needs another 11%, which would be about 18% of Dems to vote for him.

In the primary, Elrich got 39% of the Dem vote, Blair got 39% of the Dem vote, and Reimer got 20% of the Dem vote.

So.. would at least 30% of Blair voters decide to vote for Sully? It's possible. A lot of Blair voters were vehemently anti-Elrich. Then that's not even looking at what Riemer supporters would do.

Of course, I'm still making a lot of assumptions, a big one being the Independents will go for Sully, and also that we'll see even turnout among those 3 party groups. It's still a bit of a long shot for Sully, but it's not impossible either.

This might be a compelling argument if it weren't for the evidence from 2018, when Floreen ran as an independent. Elrich still got 60% of the vote. The percentage of Dems who would actually switch votes (even for an independent) are miniscule, the number who would vote R are even smaller.

In that race, the R was Robin Ficker, who was about the worst possible candidate they could put up.

Yeah, and back in 2018 this board was full of posts of people claiming they were lifelong D but were voting for Ficker. Ficker got 16%, Floreen 19%, and Elrich 65%. Do the math, even if every Floreen voter (prob a combo of D and R voters) decided to vote for Sullivan, Elrich still wins by 30 pts. My guess is a number of Floreen voters are either going to vote for Elrich or not vote at all. My prediction is Elrich 70%, Sullivan 30%.

I’m voting for Sully, but so agree with this. Zero chance a Republican wins in MoCo and it won’t even be close.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:No Democrat uses the term "leftists" nice try.

+1

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:MoCo is roughly 62% Dem, 15% Republican, and 24% independent (no party affiliation) based on Sept 2022 data. Let's say Sully got all the Republican and Ind votes. That puts him at 39%. He needs another 11%, which would be about 18% of Dems to vote for him.

In the primary, Elrich got 39% of the Dem vote, Blair got 39% of the Dem vote, and Reimer got 20% of the Dem vote.

So.. would at least 30% of Blair voters decide to vote for Sully? It's possible. A lot of Blair voters were vehemently anti-Elrich. Then that's not even looking at what Riemer supporters would do.

Of course, I'm still making a lot of assumptions, a big one being the Independents will go for Sully, and also that we'll see even turnout among those 3 party groups. It's still a bit of a long shot for Sully, but it's not impossible either.

This might be a compelling argument if it weren't for the evidence from 2018, when Floreen ran as an independent. Elrich still got 60% of the vote. The percentage of Dems who would actually switch votes (even for an independent) are miniscule, the number who would vote R are even smaller.

In that race, the R was Robin Ficker, who was about the worst possible candidate they could put up.

Yeah, and back in 2018 this board was full of posts of people claiming they were lifelong D but were voting for Ficker. Ficker got 16%, Floreen 19%, and Elrich 65%. Do the math, even if every Floreen voter (prob a combo of D and R voters) decided to vote for Sullivan, Elrich still wins by 30 pts. My guess is a number of Floreen voters are either going to vote for Elrich or not vote at all. My prediction is Elrich 70%, Sullivan 30%.

The thing is, the anti-Elrich faction was not as big of a thing last time around. Now he's been in office for 4 years, and that faction has had time to grow. Elrich won the primary 4 years ago by about 100 votes in a 5-way race. This time, it was down to a 3-way race (primary) and he still barely squeaked by (33 vote margin). Are the majority of Blair and Riemer voters going for Elrich in the general?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:MoCo is roughly 62% Dem, 15% Republican, and 24% independent (no party affiliation) based on Sept 2022 data. Let's say Sully got all the Republican and Ind votes. That puts him at 39%. He needs another 11%, which would be about 18% of Dems to vote for him.

In the primary, Elrich got 39% of the Dem vote, Blair got 39% of the Dem vote, and Reimer got 20% of the Dem vote.

So.. would at least 30% of Blair voters decide to vote for Sully? It's possible. A lot of Blair voters were vehemently anti-Elrich. Then that's not even looking at what Riemer supporters would do.

Of course, I'm still making a lot of assumptions, a big one being the Independents will go for Sully, and also that we'll see even turnout among those 3 party groups. It's still a bit of a long shot for Sully, but it's not impossible either.

This might be a compelling argument if it weren't for the evidence from 2018, when Floreen ran as an independent. Elrich still got 60% of the vote. The percentage of Dems who would actually switch votes (even for an independent) are miniscule, the number who would vote R are even smaller.

This. This is a permanently deep blue county. Not going to change anytime soon.

Voters are incredibly entrenched in their identity as ‘Democrats’. I hear it in talking to my neighbors. They hate the Democrat policies and candidates but just cannot and will not ever vote for a Republican.

We are more than a third immigrants. And a large number of ones who are eligible to vote are conservative.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:MoCo is roughly 62% Dem, 15% Republican, and 24% independent (no party affiliation) based on Sept 2022 data. Let's say Sully got all the Republican and Ind votes. That puts him at 39%. He needs another 11%, which would be about 18% of Dems to vote for him.

In the primary, Elrich got 39% of the Dem vote, Blair got 39% of the Dem vote, and Reimer got 20% of the Dem vote.

So.. would at least 30% of Blair voters decide to vote for Sully? It's possible. A lot of Blair voters were vehemently anti-Elrich. Then that's not even looking at what Riemer supporters would do.

Of course, I'm still making a lot of assumptions, a big one being the Independents will go for Sully, and also that we'll see even turnout among those 3 party groups. It's still a bit of a long shot for Sully, but it's not impossible either.

This might be a compelling argument if it weren't for the evidence from 2018, when Floreen ran as an independent. Elrich still got 60% of the vote. The percentage of Dems who would actually switch votes (even for an independent) are miniscule, the number who would vote R are even smaller.

In that race, the R was Robin Ficker, who was about the worst possible candidate they could put up.

Yeah, and back in 2018 this board was full of posts of people claiming they were lifelong D but were voting for Ficker. Ficker got 16%, Floreen 19%, and Elrich 65%. Do the math, even if every Floreen voter (prob a combo of D and R voters) decided to vote for Sullivan, Elrich still wins by 30 pts. My guess is a number of Floreen voters are either going to vote for Elrich or not vote at all. My prediction is Elrich 70%, Sullivan 30%.

I am pretty addicted to this board, and have been since about 2010 or so. I NEVER remember anyone saying they'd vote for Ficker. I hated Elrich then, but voted for him and not Floreen because I couldn't bear the thought of Ficker winning because of a split vote. Sully is completely different. Voted for him on Thursday.

[Anonymous]

Not.voting.for.a.republican!

No.matter.what!

Come.back.after.republicans.are.deprogrammed.from.their.cult!