Reply to i'm a lifelong Democrat, voting for Sullivan Reardon AMA

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]MoCo is roughly 62% Dem, 15% Republican, and 24% independent (no party affiliation) based on Sept 2022 data. Let's say Sully got all the Republican and Ind votes. That puts him at 39%. He needs another 11%, which would be about 18% of Dems to vote for him.

In the primary, Elrich got 39% of the Dem vote, Blair got 39% of the Dem vote, and Reimer got 20% of the Dem vote.

So.. would at least 30% of Blair voters decide to vote for Sully? It's possible. A lot of Blair voters were vehemently anti-Elrich. Then that's not even looking at what Riemer supporters would do.

Of course, I'm still making a lot of assumptions, a big one being the Independents will go for Sully, and also that we'll see even turnout among those 3 party groups. It's still a bit of a long shot for Sully, but it's not impossible either.[/quote]

This might be a compelling argument if it weren't for the evidence from 2018, when Floreen ran as an independent. Elrich still got 60% of the vote. The percentage of Dems who would actually switch votes (even for an independent) are miniscule, the number who would vote R are even smaller.[/quote]

In that race, the R was Robin Ficker, who was about the worst possible candidate they could put up.[/quote]

Yeah, and back in 2018 this board was full of posts of people claiming they were lifelong D but were voting for Ficker. Ficker got 16%, Floreen 19%, and Elrich 65%. Do the math, even if every Floreen voter (prob a combo of D and R voters) decided to vote for Sullivan, Elrich still wins by 30 pts. My guess is a number of Floreen voters are either going to vote for Elrich or not vote at all. My prediction is Elrich 70%, Sullivan 30%.[/quote]

The thing is, the anti-Elrich faction was not as big of a thing last time around. Now he's been in office for 4 years, and that faction has had time to grow. Elrich won the primary 4 years ago by about 100 votes in a 5-way race. This time, it was down to a 3-way race (primary) and he still barely squeaked by (33 vote margin). Are the majority of Blair and Riemer voters going for Elrich in the general?[/quote]

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