Reply to i'm a lifelong Democrat, voting for Sullivan Reardon AMA

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]MoCo is roughly 62% Dem, 15% Republican, and 24% independent (no party affiliation) based on Sept 2022 data. Let's say Sully got all the Republican and Ind votes. That puts him at 39%. He needs another 11%, which would be about 18% of Dems to vote for him.

In the primary, Elrich got 39% of the Dem vote, Blair got 39% of the Dem vote, and Reimer got 20% of the Dem vote.

So.. would at least 30% of Blair voters decide to vote for Sully? It's possible. A lot of Blair voters were vehemently anti-Elrich. Then that's not even looking at what Riemer supporters would do.

Of course, I'm still making a lot of assumptions, a big one being the Independents will go for Sully, and also that we'll see even turnout among those 3 party groups. It's still a bit of a long shot for Sully, but it's not impossible either.[/quote]

This might be a compelling argument if it weren't for the evidence from 2018, when Floreen ran as an independent. Elrich still got 60% of the vote. The percentage of Dems who would actually switch votes (even for an independent) are miniscule, the number who would vote R are even smaller.[/quote]

DCUM is not representative of the electorate. DCUM is representative of UMC professionals, 35-55. 
Elrich is not as broadly disliked as you think - his favorability polls have always been above water. The only reason why he almost lost to Blair is because millions of dollars were spent on campaigns claiming that Elrich was the sole reason for the housing affordability crisis. Most people who are MC, LMC, or generally not political activists are fine with Elrich or they actually really like him. He has a lot support among Latinos in Wheaton and Ethiopian immigrants in Silver Spring, for example. [/quote]

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