Reply to i'm a lifelong Democrat, voting for Sullivan Reardon AMA

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]MoCo is roughly 62% Dem, 15% Republican, and 24% independent (no party affiliation) based on Sept 2022 data. Let's say Sully got all the Republican and Ind votes. That puts him at 39%. He needs another 11%, which would be about 18% of Dems to vote for him.

In the primary, Elrich got 39% of the Dem vote, Blair got 39% of the Dem vote, and Reimer got 20% of the Dem vote.

So.. would at least 30% of Blair voters decide to vote for Sully? It's possible. A lot of Blair voters were vehemently anti-Elrich. Then that's not even looking at what Riemer supporters would do.

Of course, I'm still making a lot of assumptions, a big one being the Independents will go for Sully, and also that we'll see even turnout among those 3 party groups. It's still a bit of a long shot for Sully, but it's not impossible either.[/quote]

This might be a compelling argument if it weren't for the evidence from 2018, when Floreen ran as an independent. Elrich still got 60% of the vote.[b] The percentage of Dems who would actually switch votes (even for an independent) are miniscule, the number who would vote R are even smaller.[/b][/quote]

This.  This is a permanently deep blue county.  Not going to change anytime soon.

Voters are incredibly entrenched in their identity as ‘Democrats’.  I hear it in talking to my neighbors.  They hate the Democrat policies and candidates but just cannot and will not ever vote for a Republican.  [/quote]

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