I don’t know, this depends. My kid’s coach wanted to have them swim some off events but at the same time, my kid is trying to qualify for the winter invite meets with cut times so they also swam their best events to get the baseline qualifying time. At the November Open they will do the same, swim an off event or 2 but also some events that they are capable of getting qualifying times in. |
New poster - the 10 and wonder research is true, however. The kids who don’t drop out and we’re very fast at 10 and under are likely to not be anywhere near that fast as an 15-18 year old. |
That’s not what the study says. It was a study basically about burnout/drop out rate. Only a small percentage of those top 10 year olds are top senior level swimmers because a huge number of them are no longer swimming. Many of them are very athletically gifted and choose a different sport when push comes to shove. Others don’t grow as much relative to their peers or their body changes unfavorably with puberty and they stop improving and generally eventually drop out. Either way, the main reason top 10 year olds do not become top 17 year olds at a high rate is that they ARE NO LONGER SWIMMING. Not that they were overtaken by the once mediocre 10 year olds. Does that ever happen? Sure, rarely. But not at the rate DCUM swim parents seem to want to believe. |
It’s the first meet of the season, kids are swimming a lineup based on the meet schedule, what they are trained for, and what cuts they may want/need for upcoming meets. Young (fast) kids are swimming in whichever meet their training group is doing. For a lot of clubs, that’s the PVS open. For RMSC, it’s our own October open. The fastest HS group at RMSC does an intrasquad meet, everyone else 9+ does the “kick off”. The fastest NCAP kids (at quick glance of those I know) swam the PVS open. |
Can you share the link to the study you are referencing? |
You are saying that they drop because they are burnt our or athletically gifted and pursue another sport. Burnt out usually comes from lack of mental focus (huge component to swim) or physical underperformance causing disappointment. So yes, only 11% of the top 10s keep in but that is because the others probably dropped out/burnt out because they could no longer perform. Even if the 90% of kids who dropped stayed in they would no longer be the top athletes. And there will be a small percentage of swimmers that were okay that will excel - they might have it all click along with a growth spurt, etc. But like the high number of top performers that will no longer be, that is going to also be a very small number. |
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I can think of 6 kids on our team who are now 13/14 or 15+ and at 10 and under were AAAA, but are now A times.
I also can think of some (2) kids who were AAAA at 10 and are AAA or AAAA at 16. |
We have quite a few boys that are in the 15+ now making AAA times (no AAAA) that were B and BB kids in the 10&U. I am no up on our girls, so cannot say. In all cases with these boys they were small and slim when little and are now very tall and still slim. Height? Finally figuring out their awkwardness? I don't know. |
| My AAA 10 year old swimmer is now BB at 13. |
What happened? Girl who grew big boobs? Lack of motivation? Other? |
| Boy- works really hard but hasn't hit puberty at all. Very short currently. He is trying to hang in but who knows how it will all work out. |
| Coach here. For the 10 and unders what you really want to see is the kid who is very talented, maybe getting AAA times, but is not just dominating due to size. There are a lot of kids who are huge 10 year olds, very muscular etc and they can destroy the competition due to pure strength. But it’s the normal looking but super fast kid who will most likely ultimately succeed, especially if they are quite thin. These kids eventually grow and gain muscle, and that combined with their athleticism and that kind of mysterious natural feel for the water makes them unstoppable. So yes, I see that the top swimmers at 10 usually succeed IF they fit this profile. That is, if you can keep them in the sport! |
Is this the same for boys and girls? |
| My 10 year old was mostly BB, and didn't even get her first AAA until 14. Might have happened at 12, but lost most all of that year due to covid. Was always surprised when the coaches were moving her up to the advanced groups. Now closing in on Futures times. So it can happen! |
Same my college swimmer only had B and BB times when he was 10. He didn’t make JOs until 12. Had sectional and Future cuts by 15. |