Reply to PVS October Open and Time Standards

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]I wouldn’t hold too much stock in whether 9 and 10 year olds can get those AAA and AAAA times. Irrelevant to future success in the pool.[/quote]

Eh, not really. Those kids, if they stick with the sport, usually end up being at the top as teens/college swimmers as well. It’s a DCUM fantasy that the B level 9-10 year olds suddenly rise to the top at 16 years old.  [/quote]

New poster - the 10 and wonder research is true, however. The kids who don’t drop out and we’re very fast at 10 and under are likely to not be anywhere near that fast as an 15-18 year old. [/quote]

That’s not what the study says. It was a study basically about burnout/drop out rate. Only a small percentage of those top 10 year olds are top senior level swimmers because a huge number of them are no longer swimming. Many of them are very athletically gifted and choose a different sport when push comes to shove. Others don’t grow as much relative to their peers or their body changes unfavorably with puberty and they stop improving and generally eventually drop out. Either way, the main reason top 10 year olds do not become top 17 year olds at a high rate is that they ARE NO LONGER SWIMMING. Not that they were overtaken by the once mediocre 10 year olds. Does that ever happen? Sure, rarely. But not at the rate DCUM swim parents seem to want to believe. [/quote]

You are saying that they drop because they are burnt our or athletically gifted and pursue another sport.  Burnt out usually comes from lack of mental focus (huge component to swim) or physical underperformance causing disappointment.  So yes, only 11% of the top 10s keep in but that is because the others probably dropped out/burnt out because they could no longer perform.  Even if the 90% of kids who dropped stayed in they would no longer be the top athletes.

And there will be a small percentage of swimmers that were okay that will excel - they might have it all click along with a growth spurt, etc.  But like the high number of top performers that will no longer be, that is going to also be a very small number.[/quote]

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