Latin Cooper - Capitol Hill families?

Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:No, I wasn’t assuming that, although I did assume there were a lot of people who listed both. Your observation doesn’t really address what was asked since you didn’t list Latin 2.


Sigh. You miss the point. Your assumption was that Latin II filled first because it had fewer spots. There's a hole in your logic that is filled with people who didn't list Latin II.

Have the decency to just go away quietly.


NP. I really really doubt there are meaningful numbers of people who applied to Latin I/BASIS and didn’t throw Latin II onto their lottery application even if they had no intention of taking a spot.


This. I think that there is going to be fewer acceptances at Latin II because of above, and they are going to move deeper into the waitlist.

Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:So let me take a stab at this relative hardness to get into in the initial lottery question. I've been pondering it today!

Background: Basis took in 89 rising 5th graders with no preference (ignoring founders preference and siblings) and had 155 rising 5th graders with no preference waitlisted. Latin Cooper took in 40 rising 5th graders with no preference (2 had sibling accepted preference, not considering equitable access applicants or slots) and had 192 rising 5th graders waitlisted.

So let's assume all of the kids with no preference (244 for Basis and 232 for Latin Cooper) had lottery numbers that were evenly distributed between 0 and 1 (0 being good). If we divide 89 by 244 (number of kids with no preference who got into Basis in initial lottery divided by number of kids with no preference in the whole pool), the cutoff number for Basis would have been around 0.36. If we divide 40 by 232 (number of kids with no preference who got into Latin Cooper in initial lottery divided by number of kids with no preference in the whole pool), the cutoff number for Latin Cooper would be 0.17. So you would have needed a much better lottery number to get into Latin Cooper.

This keeps the pools separate for analysis purposes. Of course the two pools pulling from the other affects what actual waitlist numbers were the actual cutoff numbers, but for it to really affect results, you'd need to assume that people who preferred Basis or Latin Cooper had skewed random lottery numbers.

Does this analysis work? I'm not a mathematician nor do I play one on TV.


Not correct. The problem with your "math" is that does not consider preference; it assumes someone gets a spot by virtue of their lottery # without regard to preference order. It assumes everyone has both schools on their lists. And it conflates the idea of how many people didn't get a spot at either (WL) with matching probability and success - those two things don't correlate.
Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:So let me take a stab at this relative hardness to get into in the initial lottery question. I've been pondering it today!

Background: Basis took in 89 rising 5th graders with no preference (ignoring founders preference and siblings) and had 155 rising 5th graders with no preference waitlisted. Latin Cooper took in 40 rising 5th graders with no preference (2 had sibling accepted preference, not considering equitable access applicants or slots) and had 192 rising 5th graders waitlisted.

So let's assume all of the kids with no preference (244 for Basis and 232 for Latin Cooper) had lottery numbers that were evenly distributed between 0 and 1 (0 being good). If we divide 89 by 244 (number of kids with no preference who got into Basis in initial lottery divided by number of kids with no preference in the whole pool), the cutoff number for Basis would have been around 0.36. If we divide 40 by 232 (number of kids with no preference who got into Latin Cooper in initial lottery divided by number of kids with no preference in the whole pool), the cutoff number for Latin Cooper would be 0.17. So you would have needed a much better lottery number to get into Latin Cooper.

This keeps the pools separate for analysis purposes. Of course the two pools pulling from the other affects what actual waitlist numbers were the actual cutoff numbers, but for it to really affect results, you'd need to assume that people who preferred Basis or Latin Cooper had skewed random lottery numbers.

Does this analysis work? I'm not a mathematician nor do I play one on TV.


DCUM ... definitively disproving that time equals money
Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:So let me take a stab at this relative hardness to get into in the initial lottery question. I've been pondering it today!

Background: Basis took in 89 rising 5th graders with no preference (ignoring founders preference and siblings) and had 155 rising 5th graders with no preference waitlisted. Latin Cooper took in 40 rising 5th graders with no preference (2 had sibling accepted preference, not considering equitable access applicants or slots) and had 192 rising 5th graders waitlisted.

So let's assume all of the kids with no preference (244 for Basis and 232 for Latin Cooper) had lottery numbers that were evenly distributed between 0 and 1 (0 being good). If we divide 89 by 244 (number of kids with no preference who got into Basis in initial lottery divided by number of kids with no preference in the whole pool), the cutoff number for Basis would have been around 0.36. If we divide 40 by 232 (number of kids with no preference who got into Latin Cooper in initial lottery divided by number of kids with no preference in the whole pool), the cutoff number for Latin Cooper would be 0.17. So you would have needed a much better lottery number to get into Latin Cooper.

This keeps the pools separate for analysis purposes. Of course the two pools pulling from the other affects what actual waitlist numbers were the actual cutoff numbers, but for it to really affect results, you'd need to assume that people who preferred Basis or Latin Cooper had skewed random lottery numbers.

Does this analysis work? I'm not a mathematician nor do I play one on TV.


Not correct. The problem with your "math" is that does not consider preference; it assumes someone gets a spot by virtue of their lottery # without regard to preference order. It assumes everyone has both schools on their lists. And it conflates the idea of how many people didn't get a spot at either (WL) with matching probability and success - those two things don't correlate.


OK. but what's clear to me, not a data analyst professionally, is that demand has dramatically outpaced supply in the rush for 5th grade spots in the most desirable charter MS programs in this city in the last 3 or 4 years. Not long ago, a 4th grader EotP could cruise into BASIS, and had a decent shot at Latin even without a sibling there.

With just 40 spots going to 5th graders at Latin 2, and almost 250 applications, the odds were not good, not at all. Neither are odds good at BASIS, where almost two-thirds of 5th grade applicants were wait listed. I expect twice as many kids to return to our DCPS EotP for 5th grade, 5th grade refugees in this race, as just five years ago. Some of these families will move to the burbs at this rate. Who's impressed with this system?
Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:So let me take a stab at this relative hardness to get into in the initial lottery question. I've been pondering it today!

Background: Basis took in 89 rising 5th graders with no preference (ignoring founders preference and siblings) and had 155 rising 5th graders with no preference waitlisted. Latin Cooper took in 40 rising 5th graders with no preference (2 had sibling accepted preference, not considering equitable access applicants or slots) and had 192 rising 5th graders waitlisted.

So let's assume all of the kids with no preference (244 for Basis and 232 for Latin Cooper) had lottery numbers that were evenly distributed between 0 and 1 (0 being good). If we divide 89 by 244 (number of kids with no preference who got into Basis in initial lottery divided by number of kids with no preference in the whole pool), the cutoff number for Basis would have been around 0.36. If we divide 40 by 232 (number of kids with no preference who got into Latin Cooper in initial lottery divided by number of kids with no preference in the whole pool), the cutoff number for Latin Cooper would be 0.17. So you would have needed a much better lottery number to get into Latin Cooper.

This keeps the pools separate for analysis purposes. Of course the two pools pulling from the other affects what actual waitlist numbers were the actual cutoff numbers, but for it to really affect results, you'd need to assume that people who preferred Basis or Latin Cooper had skewed random lottery numbers.

Does this analysis work? I'm not a mathematician nor do I play one on TV.


Not correct. The problem with your "math" is that does not consider preference; it assumes someone gets a spot by virtue of their lottery # without regard to preference order. It assumes everyone has both schools on their lists. And it conflates the idea of how many people didn't get a spot at either (WL) with matching probability and success - those two things don't correlate.


OK. but what's clear to me, not a data analyst professionally, is that demand has dramatically outpaced supply in the rush for 5th grade spots in the most desirable charter MS programs in this city in the last 3 or 4 years. Not long ago, a 4th grader EotP could cruise into BASIS, and had a decent shot at Latin even without a sibling there.

With just 40 spots going to 5th graders at Latin 2, and almost 250 applications, the odds were not good, not at all. Neither are odds good at BASIS, where almost two-thirds of 5th grade applicants were wait listed. I expect twice as many kids to return to our DCPS EotP for 5th grade, 5th grade refugees in this race, as just five years ago. Some of these families will move to the burbs at this rate. Who's impressed with this system?


The people who want neighborhood kids/families to stay within the neighborhood and improve the schools, just like they've done in the elementaries.
Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:So let me take a stab at this relative hardness to get into in the initial lottery question. I've been pondering it today!

Background: Basis took in 89 rising 5th graders with no preference (ignoring founders preference and siblings) and had 155 rising 5th graders with no preference waitlisted. Latin Cooper took in 40 rising 5th graders with no preference (2 had sibling accepted preference, not considering equitable access applicants or slots) and had 192 rising 5th graders waitlisted.

So let's assume all of the kids with no preference (244 for Basis and 232 for Latin Cooper) had lottery numbers that were evenly distributed between 0 and 1 (0 being good). If we divide 89 by 244 (number of kids with no preference who got into Basis in initial lottery divided by number of kids with no preference in the whole pool), the cutoff number for Basis would have been around 0.36. If we divide 40 by 232 (number of kids with no preference who got into Latin Cooper in initial lottery divided by number of kids with no preference in the whole pool), the cutoff number for Latin Cooper would be 0.17. So you would have needed a much better lottery number to get into Latin Cooper.

This keeps the pools separate for analysis purposes. Of course the two pools pulling from the other affects what actual waitlist numbers were the actual cutoff numbers, but for it to really affect results, you'd need to assume that people who preferred Basis or Latin Cooper had skewed random lottery numbers.

Does this analysis work? I'm not a mathematician nor do I play one on TV.



Not correct. The problem with your "math" is that does not consider preference; it assumes someone gets a spot by virtue of their lottery # without regard to preference order. It assumes everyone has both schools on their lists. And it conflates the idea of how many people didn't get a spot at either (WL) with matching probability and success - those two things don't correlate.


OK. but what's clear to me, not a data analyst professionally, is that demand has dramatically outpaced supply in the rush for 5th grade spots in the most desirable charter MS programs in this city in the last 3 or 4 years. Not long ago, a 4th grader EotP could cruise into BASIS, and had a decent shot at Latin even without a sibling there.

With just 40 spots going to 5th graders at Latin 2, and almost 250 applications, the odds were not good, not at all. Neither are odds good at BASIS, where almost two-thirds of 5th grade applicants were wait listed. I expect twice as many kids to return to our DCPS EotP for 5th grade, 5th grade refugees in this race, as just five years ago. Some of these families will move to the burbs at this rate. Who's impressed with this system?


Not sure what your point is. That there are more kids who want slots at these schools than slots? Ok. There has been a rising number of school aged kids in the public school system for years now, so this is not surprising. And its not as if these are the only schools people try to go to. DCI, Deal, Hardy and others should be included in this calculation.
Anonymous
"Matched" like it's med school lmao.
Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:So let me take a stab at this relative hardness to get into in the initial lottery question. I've been pondering it today!

Background: Basis took in 89 rising 5th graders with no preference (ignoring founders preference and siblings) and had 155 rising 5th graders with no preference waitlisted. Latin Cooper took in 40 rising 5th graders with no preference (2 had sibling accepted preference, not considering equitable access applicants or slots) and had 192 rising 5th graders waitlisted.

So let's assume all of the kids with no preference (244 for Basis and 232 for Latin Cooper) had lottery numbers that were evenly distributed between 0 and 1 (0 being good). If we divide 89 by 244 (number of kids with no preference who got into Basis in initial lottery divided by number of kids with no preference in the whole pool), the cutoff number for Basis would have been around 0.36. If we divide 40 by 232 (number of kids with no preference who got into Latin Cooper in initial lottery divided by number of kids with no preference in the whole pool), the cutoff number for Latin Cooper would be 0.17. So you would have needed a much better lottery number to get into Latin Cooper.

This keeps the pools separate for analysis purposes. Of course the two pools pulling from the other affects what actual waitlist numbers were the actual cutoff numbers, but for it to really affect results, you'd need to assume that people who preferred Basis or Latin Cooper had skewed random lottery numbers.

Does this analysis work? I'm not a mathematician nor do I play one on TV.



Not correct. The problem with your "math" is that does not consider preference; it assumes someone gets a spot by virtue of their lottery # without regard to preference order. It assumes everyone has both schools on their lists. And it conflates the idea of how many people didn't get a spot at either (WL) with matching probability and success - those two things don't correlate.


OK. but what's clear to me, not a data analyst professionally, is that demand has dramatically outpaced supply in the rush for 5th grade spots in the most desirable charter MS programs in this city in the last 3 or 4 years. Not long ago, a 4th grader EotP could cruise into BASIS, and had a decent shot at Latin even without a sibling there.

With just 40 spots going to 5th graders at Latin 2, and almost 250 applications, the odds were not good, not at all. Neither are odds good at BASIS, where almost two-thirds of 5th grade applicants were wait listed. I expect twice as many kids to return to our DCPS EotP for 5th grade, 5th grade refugees in this race, as just five years ago. Some of these families will move to the burbs at this rate. Who's impressed with this system?


Not sure what your point is. That there are more kids who want slots at these schools than slots? Ok. There has been a rising number of school aged kids in the public school system for years now, so this is not surprising. And its not as if these are the only schools people try to go to. DCI, Deal, Hardy and others should be included in this calculation.


How long have you been in the District? How long in DC public schools? This train wreck was in the makings when Rhee & Henderson were at the helm. They made the decision to outsource MS to charters for UMC families EotP, to the system's detriment. They closed the door on test-in middle schools, a real shame in my books. What a headache for families in Wards 5 and 6. Just not the way an East Coast city should be run. My college friends in NYC, Chicago and Boston with kids at Hunter College, Stuyvesant, Boston Latin, Whitney Young etc. have taught me that over the years.
Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:So let me take a stab at this relative hardness to get into in the initial lottery question. I've been pondering it today!

Background: Basis took in 89 rising 5th graders with no preference (ignoring founders preference and siblings) and had 155 rising 5th graders with no preference waitlisted. Latin Cooper took in 40 rising 5th graders with no preference (2 had sibling accepted preference, not considering equitable access applicants or slots) and had 192 rising 5th graders waitlisted.

So let's assume all of the kids with no preference (244 for Basis and 232 for Latin Cooper) had lottery numbers that were evenly distributed between 0 and 1 (0 being good). If we divide 89 by 244 (number of kids with no preference who got into Basis in initial lottery divided by number of kids with no preference in the whole pool), the cutoff number for Basis would have been around 0.36. If we divide 40 by 232 (number of kids with no preference who got into Latin Cooper in initial lottery divided by number of kids with no preference in the whole pool), the cutoff number for Latin Cooper would be 0.17. So you would have needed a much better lottery number to get into Latin Cooper.

This keeps the pools separate for analysis purposes. Of course the two pools pulling from the other affects what actual waitlist numbers were the actual cutoff numbers, but for it to really affect results, you'd need to assume that people who preferred Basis or Latin Cooper had skewed random lottery numbers.

Does this analysis work? I'm not a mathematician nor do I play one on TV.



Not correct. The problem with your "math" is that does not consider preference; it assumes someone gets a spot by virtue of their lottery # without regard to preference order. It assumes everyone has both schools on their lists. And it conflates the idea of how many people didn't get a spot at either (WL) with matching probability and success - those two things don't correlate.


OK. but what's clear to me, not a data analyst professionally, is that demand has dramatically outpaced supply in the rush for 5th grade spots in the most desirable charter MS programs in this city in the last 3 or 4 years. Not long ago, a 4th grader EotP could cruise into BASIS, and had a decent shot at Latin even without a sibling there.

With just 40 spots going to 5th graders at Latin 2, and almost 250 applications, the odds were not good, not at all. Neither are odds good at BASIS, where almost two-thirds of 5th grade applicants were wait listed. I expect twice as many kids to return to our DCPS EotP for 5th grade, 5th grade refugees in this race, as just five years ago. Some of these families will move to the burbs at this rate. Who's impressed with this system?


Not sure what your point is. That there are more kids who want slots at these schools than slots? Ok. There has been a rising number of school aged kids in the public school system for years now, so this is not surprising. And its not as if these are the only schools people try to go to. DCI, Deal, Hardy and others should be included in this calculation.


How long have you been in the District? How long in DC public schools? This train wreck was in the makings when Rhee & Henderson were at the helm. They made the decision to outsource MS to charters for UMC families EotP, to the system's detriment. They closed the door on test-in middle schools, a real shame in my books. What a headache for families in Wards 5 and 6. Just not the way an East Coast city should be run. My college friends in NYC, Chicago and Boston with kids at Hunter College, Stuyvesant, Boston Latin, Whitney Young etc. have taught me that over the years.


All the schools you mention are test in high schools. We have those.
Anonymous
No they aren’t. Hunter College starts in 6th grade whike Boston Latin and Cambridge and Rindge Latin start in 7th. We certainly don’t have a true magnet test-in HS in DC. No way.
Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:So let me take a stab at this relative hardness to get into in the initial lottery question. I've been pondering it today!

Background: Basis took in 89 rising 5th graders with no preference (ignoring founders preference and siblings) and had 155 rising 5th graders with no preference waitlisted. Latin Cooper took in 40 rising 5th graders with no preference (2 had sibling accepted preference, not considering equitable access applicants or slots) and had 192 rising 5th graders waitlisted.

So let's assume all of the kids with no preference (244 for Basis and 232 for Latin Cooper) had lottery numbers that were evenly distributed between 0 and 1 (0 being good). If we divide 89 by 244 (number of kids with no preference who got into Basis in initial lottery divided by number of kids with no preference in the whole pool), the cutoff number for Basis would have been around 0.36. If we divide 40 by 232 (number of kids with no preference who got into Latin Cooper in initial lottery divided by number of kids with no preference in the whole pool), the cutoff number for Latin Cooper would be 0.17. So you would have needed a much better lottery number to get into Latin Cooper.

This keeps the pools separate for analysis purposes. Of course the two pools pulling from the other affects what actual waitlist numbers were the actual cutoff numbers, but for it to really affect results, you'd need to assume that people who preferred Basis or Latin Cooper had skewed random lottery numbers.

Does this analysis work? I'm not a mathematician nor do I play one on TV.


Not correct. The problem with your "math" is that does not consider preference; it assumes someone gets a spot by virtue of their lottery # without regard to preference order. It assumes everyone has both schools on their lists. And it conflates the idea of how many people didn't get a spot at either (WL) with matching probability and success - those two things don't correlate.


OK. but what's clear to me, not a data analyst professionally, is that demand has dramatically outpaced supply in the rush for 5th grade spots in the most desirable charter MS programs in this city in the last 3 or 4 years. Not long ago, a 4th grader EotP could cruise into BASIS, and had a decent shot at Latin even without a sibling there.

With just 40 spots going to 5th graders at Latin 2, and almost 250 applications, the odds were not good, not at all. Neither are odds good at BASIS, where almost two-thirds of 5th grade applicants were wait listed. I expect twice as many kids to return to our DCPS EotP for 5th grade, 5th grade refugees in this race, as just five years ago. Some of these families will move to the burbs at this rate. Who's impressed with this system?


You strike me as someone who thinks the world was flat before Columbus landed here. Just because you only now have a kid in the MS age range does not mean these issues only just materialized "in the last 3 or 4 years". These issues go farther back than that. In fact it is only a relatively recent phenomenon that Stuart Hobson is a viable option for many MS families.

Also not clear on what exactly you are arguing. But in all fairness, neither are you. Assuming you were right that the supply demand issues are new (they aren't) then those kids who are only recently opting for Latin and Basis would have been in the DCPS system and those MS would have improved. It also sounds like your argument is that if everyone can't have a scarce resource (Latin, Basis) then no one should be allowed to have it. That's juvenile and emotional.

And you continue to fundamentally misunderstand how WL length for a costless submission does not equate to actual demand. Demand will be measured by how many kids ultimately accept those spots.

I'm impressed with the system, BTW. I have options for MS that are varied and different based on what and who my kids are. It allows me to live in a diverse city and a fun and diverse neighborhood when in the absence of the lottery and choice I might be forced to decamp for a wealthy and boring burb.
Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:So let me take a stab at this relative hardness to get into in the initial lottery question. I've been pondering it today!

Background: Basis took in 89 rising 5th graders with no preference (ignoring founders preference and siblings) and had 155 rising 5th graders with no preference waitlisted. Latin Cooper took in 40 rising 5th graders with no preference (2 had sibling accepted preference, not considering equitable access applicants or slots) and had 192 rising 5th graders waitlisted.

So let's assume all of the kids with no preference (244 for Basis and 232 for Latin Cooper) had lottery numbers that were evenly distributed between 0 and 1 (0 being good). If we divide 89 by 244 (number of kids with no preference who got into Basis in initial lottery divided by number of kids with no preference in the whole pool), the cutoff number for Basis would have been around 0.36. If we divide 40 by 232 (number of kids with no preference who got into Latin Cooper in initial lottery divided by number of kids with no preference in the whole pool), the cutoff number for Latin Cooper would be 0.17. So you would have needed a much better lottery number to get into Latin Cooper.

This keeps the pools separate for analysis purposes. Of course the two pools pulling from the other affects what actual waitlist numbers were the actual cutoff numbers, but for it to really affect results, you'd need to assume that people who preferred Basis or Latin Cooper had skewed random lottery numbers.

Does this analysis work? I'm not a mathematician nor do I play one on TV.



Not correct. The problem with your "math" is that does not consider preference; it assumes someone gets a spot by virtue of their lottery # without regard to preference order. It assumes everyone has both schools on their lists. And it conflates the idea of how many people didn't get a spot at either (WL) with matching probability and success - those two things don't correlate.


OK. but what's clear to me, not a data analyst professionally, is that demand has dramatically outpaced supply in the rush for 5th grade spots in the most desirable charter MS programs in this city in the last 3 or 4 years. Not long ago, a 4th grader EotP could cruise into BASIS, and had a decent shot at Latin even without a sibling there.

With just 40 spots going to 5th graders at Latin 2, and almost 250 applications, the odds were not good, not at all. Neither are odds good at BASIS, where almost two-thirds of 5th grade applicants were wait listed. I expect twice as many kids to return to our DCPS EotP for 5th grade, 5th grade refugees in this race, as just five years ago. Some of these families will move to the burbs at this rate. Who's impressed with this system?


Not sure what your point is. That there are more kids who want slots at these schools than slots? Ok. There has been a rising number of school aged kids in the public school system for years now, so this is not surprising. And its not as if these are the only schools people try to go to. DCI, Deal, Hardy and others should be included in this calculation.


How long have you been in the District? How long in DC public schools? This train wreck was in the makings when Rhee & Henderson were at the helm. They made the decision to outsource MS to charters for UMC families EotP, to the system's detriment. They closed the door on test-in middle schools, a real shame in my books. What a headache for families in Wards 5 and 6. Just not the way an East Coast city should be run. My college friends in NYC, Chicago and Boston with kids at Hunter College, Stuyvesant, Boston Latin, Whitney Young etc. have taught me that over the years.


NP. How long have you been here? You seem confused on the timelines and realities of schools in DC. Rhee was Chancellor in 2007. Congress mandated the charter system in 1996. Even ignoring the 10 years in between, your position necessarily requires one to believe that until Rhee took over DCPS and MS in particular were healthy, vibrant and excellent. If you lived here then you would know none of those things were true. DCPS Central Admin was a train wreck and the WTU was calling all the shots. (See, Barbara Bullock, the missing $5 million and 9 year prison sentence). The aggregate school system in DC is much healthier now than it was in 2007 and the DCPS ES and MS are much, MUCH healthier now than they were in 2007. We didn't have a test-in MS then and we still don't have one now. Not sure how you are still blaming Rhee. We do, by the way, have several test-in HS that are excellent schools (SWW, McKinley Tech, Banneker). You can argue that is as much a function of increased population, wealth, housing prices and gentrification as it was charter or DC school improvements (those are fair arguments), but you don't get to just ignore data and history and recycle the same trite "Michelle Rhee is the boogeyman" noise. She was here for 4 years (2007-2010). The charter system has been in place for 25 years.
Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:"Matched" like it's med school lmao.


It is the proper term because the lottery system incorporates ordinal preference from the submitter and a random lottery component from the provider (My School DC). Because of that structure the system "matches" those two things in an efficient manner. It is the same term used for med school because the same matching principles apply. My School DC shows "Matched" as status when for the school you match at.

But mazel tov on successfully illustrating meanness and ignorance in one brief sentence. Not an easy thing to do!
Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:So let me take a stab at this relative hardness to get into in the initial lottery question. I've been pondering it today!

Background: Basis took in 89 rising 5th graders with no preference (ignoring founders preference and siblings) and had 155 rising 5th graders with no preference waitlisted. Latin Cooper took in 40 rising 5th graders with no preference (2 had sibling accepted preference, not considering equitable access applicants or slots) and had 192 rising 5th graders waitlisted.

So let's assume all of the kids with no preference (244 for Basis and 232 for Latin Cooper) had lottery numbers that were evenly distributed between 0 and 1 (0 being good). If we divide 89 by 244 (number of kids with no preference who got into Basis in initial lottery divided by number of kids with no preference in the whole pool), the cutoff number for Basis would have been around 0.36. If we divide 40 by 232 (number of kids with no preference who got into Latin Cooper in initial lottery divided by number of kids with no preference in the whole pool), the cutoff number for Latin Cooper would be 0.17. So you would have needed a much better lottery number to get into Latin Cooper.

This keeps the pools separate for analysis purposes. Of course the two pools pulling from the other affects what actual waitlist numbers were the actual cutoff numbers, but for it to really affect results, you'd need to assume that people who preferred Basis or Latin Cooper had skewed random lottery numbers.

Does this analysis work? I'm not a mathematician nor do I play one on TV.



Not correct. The problem with your "math" is that does not consider preference; it assumes someone gets a spot by virtue of their lottery # without regard to preference order. It assumes everyone has both schools on their lists. And it conflates the idea of how many people didn't get a spot at either (WL) with matching probability and success - those two things don't correlate.


OK. but what's clear to me, not a data analyst professionally, is that demand has dramatically outpaced supply in the rush for 5th grade spots in the most desirable charter MS programs in this city in the last 3 or 4 years. Not long ago, a 4th grader EotP could cruise into BASIS, and had a decent shot at Latin even without a sibling there.

With just 40 spots going to 5th graders at Latin 2, and almost 250 applications, the odds were not good, not at all. Neither are odds good at BASIS, where almost two-thirds of 5th grade applicants were wait listed. I expect twice as many kids to return to our DCPS EotP for 5th grade, 5th grade refugees in this race, as just five years ago. Some of these families will move to the burbs at this rate. Who's impressed with this system?


Not sure what your point is. That there are more kids who want slots at these schools than slots? Ok. There has been a rising number of school aged kids in the public school system for years now, so this is not surprising. And its not as if these are the only schools people try to go to. DCI, Deal, Hardy and others should be included in this calculation.


How long have you been in the District? How long in DC public schools? This train wreck was in the makings when Rhee & Henderson were at the helm. They made the decision to outsource MS to charters for UMC families EotP, to the system's detriment. They closed the door on test-in middle schools, a real shame in my books. What a headache for families in Wards 5 and 6. Just not the way an East Coast city should be run. My college friends in NYC, Chicago and Boston with kids at Hunter College, Stuyvesant, Boston Latin, Whitney Young etc. have taught me that over the years.


NP. How long have you been here? You seem confused on the timelines and realities of schools in DC. Rhee was Chancellor in 2007. Congress mandated the charter system in 1996. Even ignoring the 10 years in between, your position necessarily requires one to believe that until Rhee took over DCPS and MS in particular were healthy, vibrant and excellent. If you lived here then you would know none of those things were true. DCPS Central Admin was a train wreck and the WTU was calling all the shots. (See, Barbara Bullock, the missing $5 million and 9 year prison sentence). The aggregate school system in DC is much healthier now than it was in 2007 and the DCPS ES and MS are much, MUCH healthier now than they were in 2007. We didn't have a test-in MS then and we still don't have one now. Not sure how you are still blaming Rhee. We do, by the way, have several test-in HS that are excellent schools (SWW, McKinley Tech, Banneker). You can argue that is as much a function of increased population, wealth, housing prices and gentrification as it was charter or DC school improvements (those are fair arguments), but you don't get to just ignore data and history and recycle the same trite "Michelle Rhee is the boogeyman" noise. She was here for 4 years (2007-2010). The charter system has been in place for 25 years.


In DC? Since the 1990s. Let's agree to disagree, shall we?

Rhee may not have been the boogeyman, but she and Henderson certainly dropped the ball in failing to move to reinvent DCPS middle and high schools EotP so that they appealed to most in-boundary families. They paid lip service to the exercise is establishing the IB Diploma program at Eastern 15 years ago and left it at that. They had their chance, but outsourced the job to new charters.

The Brent PTA tried to create its own middle school in 2009, and Rhee shot them down right before the election Fenty lost, after having encouraged the parents' proposal for a good year. At present, no Ward 6 middle school offers "honors" classes for social studies or science, more than a decade after honors classes for math and English arrived at Stuart Hobson. The previous SH principal, who was great, quit over the issue, and other curricular matters, two years ago.

No, SWW, McKinley Tech and Banneker aren't excellent high schools. You're deeply mired in relalativism in claiming this. These programs can't hold a candle to the top test-in magnet programs in big cities around the country, or even in the DC burbs. DC's admissions high schools are far too wedded to affirmative action-based admissions to compete. End of story.
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Anonymous wrote:So let me take a stab at this relative hardness to get into in the initial lottery question. I've been pondering it today!

Background: Basis took in 89 rising 5th graders with no preference (ignoring founders preference and siblings) and had 155 rising 5th graders with no preference waitlisted. Latin Cooper took in 40 rising 5th graders with no preference (2 had sibling accepted preference, not considering equitable access applicants or slots) and had 192 rising 5th graders waitlisted.

So let's assume all of the kids with no preference (244 for Basis and 232 for Latin Cooper) had lottery numbers that were evenly distributed between 0 and 1 (0 being good). If we divide 89 by 244 (number of kids with no preference who got into Basis in initial lottery divided by number of kids with no preference in the whole pool), the cutoff number for Basis would have been around 0.36. If we divide 40 by 232 (number of kids with no preference who got into Latin Cooper in initial lottery divided by number of kids with no preference in the whole pool), the cutoff number for Latin Cooper would be 0.17. So you would have needed a much better lottery number to get into Latin Cooper.

This keeps the pools separate for analysis purposes. Of course the two pools pulling from the other affects what actual waitlist numbers were the actual cutoff numbers, but for it to really affect results, you'd need to assume that people who preferred Basis or Latin Cooper had skewed random lottery numbers.

Does this analysis work? I'm not a mathematician nor do I play one on TV.



Not correct. The problem with your "math" is that does not consider preference; it assumes someone gets a spot by virtue of their lottery # without regard to preference order. It assumes everyone has both schools on their lists. And it conflates the idea of how many people didn't get a spot at either (WL) with matching probability and success - those two things don't correlate.


OK. but what's clear to me, not a data analyst professionally, is that demand has dramatically outpaced supply in the rush for 5th grade spots in the most desirable charter MS programs in this city in the last 3 or 4 years. Not long ago, a 4th grader EotP could cruise into BASIS, and had a decent shot at Latin even without a sibling there.

With just 40 spots going to 5th graders at Latin 2, and almost 250 applications, the odds were not good, not at all. Neither are odds good at BASIS, where almost two-thirds of 5th grade applicants were wait listed. I expect twice as many kids to return to our DCPS EotP for 5th grade, 5th grade refugees in this race, as just five years ago. Some of these families will move to the burbs at this rate. Who's impressed with this system?


Not sure what your point is. That there are more kids who want slots at these schools than slots? Ok. There has been a rising number of school aged kids in the public school system for years now, so this is not surprising. And its not as if these are the only schools people try to go to. DCI, Deal, Hardy and others should be included in this calculation.


How long have you been in the District? How long in DC public schools? This train wreck was in the makings when Rhee & Henderson were at the helm. They made the decision to outsource MS to charters for UMC families EotP, to the system's detriment. They closed the door on test-in middle schools, a real shame in my books. What a headache for families in Wards 5 and 6. Just not the way an East Coast city should be run. My college friends in NYC, Chicago and Boston with kids at Hunter College, Stuyvesant, Boston Latin, Whitney Young etc. have taught me that over the years.


NP. How long have you been here? You seem confused on the timelines and realities of schools in DC. Rhee was Chancellor in 2007. Congress mandated the charter system in 1996. Even ignoring the 10 years in between, your position necessarily requires one to believe that until Rhee took over DCPS and MS in particular were healthy, vibrant and excellent. If you lived here then you would know none of those things were true. DCPS Central Admin was a train wreck and the WTU was calling all the shots. (See, Barbara Bullock, the missing $5 million and 9 year prison sentence). The aggregate school system in DC is much healthier now than it was in 2007 and the DCPS ES and MS are much, MUCH healthier now than they were in 2007. We didn't have a test-in MS then and we still don't have one now. Not sure how you are still blaming Rhee. We do, by the way, have several test-in HS that are excellent schools (SWW, McKinley Tech, Banneker). You can argue that is as much a function of increased population, wealth, housing prices and gentrification as it was charter or DC school improvements (those are fair arguments), but you don't get to just ignore data and history and recycle the same trite "Michelle Rhee is the boogeyman" noise. She was here for 4 years (2007-2010). The charter system has been in place for 25 years.


In DC? Since the 1990s. Let's agree to disagree, shall we?

Rhee may not have been the boogeyman, but she and Henderson certainly dropped the ball in failing to move to reinvent DCPS middle and high schools EotP so that they appealed to most in-boundary families. They paid lip service to the exercise is establishing the IB Diploma program at Eastern 15 years ago and left it at that. They had their chance, but outsourced the job to new charters.

The Brent PTA tried to create its own middle school in 2009, and Rhee shot them down right before the election Fenty lost, after having encouraged the parents' proposal for a good year. At present, no Ward 6 middle school offers "honors" classes for social studies or science, more than a decade after honors classes for math and English arrived at Stuart Hobson. The previous SH principal, who was great, quit over the issue, and other curricular matters, two years ago.

No, SWW, McKinley Tech and Banneker aren't excellent high schools. You're deeply mired in relalativism in claiming this. These programs can't hold a candle to the top test-in magnet programs in big cities around the country, or even in the DC burbs. DC's admissions high schools are far too wedded to affirmative action-based admissions to compete. End of story.


This poster speaks much truth. One minor quibble. The Brent PTA did not try to create “its own middle school”. It had several proposals ( including a pan-Hill middle school, feeding to SH, or else expanding into 6,7 and 8 for a few years until DCPS got its ish together at the MS level) that would have worked to keep those Brent graduates in a DCPS middle school situation. And as the pp points out, Rhee said “nah, pick Eliot Hine or Jefferson as your feeder.” A portion if the PTA acquiesced and got on board with keeping the Jefferson feed, hyped it up and then never sent their kids there. Fun times.
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