Reply to Latin Cooper - Capitol Hill families?

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]So let me take a stab at this relative hardness to get into in the initial lottery question. I've been pondering it today!

Background: Basis took in 89 rising 5th graders with no preference (ignoring founders preference and siblings) and had 155 rising 5th graders with no preference waitlisted. Latin Cooper took in 40 rising 5th graders with no preference (2 had sibling accepted preference, not considering equitable access applicants or slots) and had 192 rising 5th graders waitlisted.

So let's assume all of the kids with no preference (244 for Basis and 232 for Latin Cooper) had lottery numbers that were evenly distributed between 0 and 1 (0 being good). If we divide 89 by 244 (number of kids with no preference who got into Basis in initial lottery divided by number of kids with no preference in the whole pool), the cutoff number for Basis would have been around 0.36. If we divide 40 by 232 (number of kids with no preference who got into Latin Cooper in initial lottery divided by number of kids with no preference in the whole pool), the cutoff number for Latin Cooper would be 0.17. So you would have needed a much better lottery number to get into Latin Cooper.

This keeps the pools separate for analysis purposes. Of course the two pools pulling from the other affects what actual waitlist numbers were the actual cutoff numbers, but for it to really affect results, you'd need to assume that people who preferred Basis or Latin Cooper had skewed random lottery numbers.

Does this analysis work? I'm not a mathematician nor do I play one on TV.[/quote]

Not correct. The problem with your "math" is that does not consider preference; it assumes someone gets a spot by virtue of their lottery # without regard to preference order. It assumes everyone has both schools on their lists. And it conflates the idea of how many people didn't get a spot at either (WL) with matching probability and success - those two things don't correlate.  [/quote]

OK. but what's clear to me, not a data analyst professionally, is that demand has dramatically outpaced supply in the rush for 5th grade spots in the most desirable charter MS programs in this city in the last 3 or 4 years.  Not long ago, a 4th grader EotP could cruise into BASIS, and had a decent shot at Latin even without a sibling there.

With just 40 spots going to 5th graders at Latin 2, and almost 250 applications, the odds were not good, not at all.  Neither are odds good at BASIS, where almost two-thirds of 5th grade applicants were wait listed.  I expect twice as many kids to return to our DCPS EotP for 5th grade, 5th grade refugees in this race, as just five years ago.  Some of these families will move to the burbs at this rate.  Who's impressed with this system?[/quote]

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