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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]So let me take a stab at this relative hardness to get into in the initial lottery question. I've been pondering it today!

Background: Basis took in 89 rising 5th graders with no preference (ignoring founders preference and siblings) and had 155 rising 5th graders with no preference waitlisted. Latin Cooper took in 40 rising 5th graders with no preference (2 had sibling accepted preference, not considering equitable access applicants or slots) and had 192 rising 5th graders waitlisted.

So let's assume all of the kids with no preference (244 for Basis and 232 for Latin Cooper) had lottery numbers that were evenly distributed between 0 and 1 (0 being good). If we divide 89 by 244 (number of kids with no preference who got into Basis in initial lottery divided by number of kids with no preference in the whole pool), the cutoff number for Basis would have been around 0.36. If we divide 40 by 232 (number of kids with no preference who got into Latin Cooper in initial lottery divided by number of kids with no preference in the whole pool), the cutoff number for Latin Cooper would be 0.17. So you would have needed a much better lottery number to get into Latin Cooper.

This keeps the pools separate for analysis purposes. Of course the two pools pulling from the other affects what actual waitlist numbers were the actual cutoff numbers, but for it to really affect results, you'd need to assume that people who preferred Basis or Latin Cooper had skewed random lottery numbers.

Does this analysis work? I'm not a mathematician nor do I play one on TV.[/quote]

Not correct. The problem with your "math" is that does not consider preference; it assumes someone gets a spot by virtue of their lottery # without regard to preference order. It assumes everyone has both schools on their lists. And it conflates the idea of how many people didn't get a spot at either (WL) with matching probability and success - those two things don't correlate.  [/quote]

OK. but what's clear to me, not a data analyst professionally, is that demand has dramatically outpaced supply in the rush for 5th grade spots in the most desirable charter MS programs in this city [b]in the last 3 or 4 years[/b].  [b]Not long ago[/b], a 4th grader EotP could cruise into BASIS, and had a decent shot at Latin even without a sibling there.

With just 40 spots going to 5th graders at Latin 2, and almost 250 applications, the odds were not good, not at all.  Neither are odds good at BASIS, where almost two-thirds of 5th grade applicants were wait listed.  I expect twice as many kids to return to our DCPS EotP for 5th grade, 5th grade refugees in this race, as just five years ago.  Some of these families will move to the burbs at this rate.  Who's impressed with this system?[/quote]

You strike me as someone who thinks the world was flat before Columbus landed here. Just because you only now have a kid in the MS age range does not mean these issues only just materialized "in the last 3 or 4 years". These issues go farther back than that. In fact it is only a relatively recent phenomenon that Stuart Hobson is a viable option for many MS families.

Also not clear on what exactly you are arguing. But in all fairness, neither are you. Assuming you were right that the supply demand issues are new (they aren't) then those kids who are only recently opting for Latin and Basis would have been in the DCPS system and those MS would have improved. It also sounds like your argument is that if everyone can't have a scarce resource (Latin, Basis) then no one should be allowed to have it. That's juvenile and emotional.

And you continue to fundamentally misunderstand how WL length for a costless submission does not equate to actual demand. Demand will be measured by how many kids ultimately accept those spots.

I'm impressed with the system, BTW. I have options for MS that are varied and different based on what and who my kids are. It allows me to live in a diverse city and a fun and diverse neighborhood when in the absence of the lottery and choice I might be forced to decamp for a wealthy and boring burb. [/quote]

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