Early Predictions 2028: AOC, Whitmer, Newsome or …?

[Anonymous]

I really don't understand how some democrats cannot see that Trump is insanely popular. For christ sakes, folks voted for his revenge tour over a more optimistic outlook. that tells you everything right there.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I really don't understand how some democrats cannot see that Trump is insanely popular. For christ sakes, folks voted for his revenge tour over a more optimistic outlook. that tells you everything right there.

I am a Democrat but one who was here begging people in 2016 and 2024 to see he’d win easily. I would not say he is insanely popular. People don’t like the unpredictability, they don’t like his crazy rants, they don’t like his open corruption.

But he is far, far more popular than the Democrats. Why? Because he is a populist. He is perceived as anti-war (and to be fair, that may be correct). He is seen as taking border issues seriously, which is an issue that rich DCUM Democrats are largely insulated from, but which has devastated lower- and middle-income communities. He is perceived as pushing back on the excesses of the left. Meanwhile the Democrats are perceived as the party of extremely rich elitist coastal Democrats who look down on everyone else.

And for electoral purposes, that is all that Trump needs. He doesn’t need to be insanely popular. He just needs to be a lot more popular than national Democrats, and he’s easily achieving that now.

[Anonymous]

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Anonymous wrote:Gotta be a moderate, likeable, smart White male. Think JFK or Bill Clinton. Otherwise get ready to the permanent minority party.

This is where Andy Beshear comes in! perfect candidate. handsome. likable. smart. white. moderate. savvy enough.

It's a good thing Obama ran for office prior to when the racist took back over and proclaimed only "white" candidates are viable.

Crawl back under your rock!

Lol. Obama and I are the same race. go judge someone else buddy. It's very clear that America is NOT going to elect a women or person of color for some time. Y'all want white male moderates. so I tossed out one that I thought could actually work well. Reading too much into these post will make you look like an arse!

Oh yeah, the good ole "I'm not racist, I'm just telling you what racists think" spiel. A woman or POC is just as capable as the elderly white men you idiots are addicted to.

then why did two highly capable women lose to a felon? GTFOH with your gaslighting.

Because they were bad candidates with some bad policies. I’m pretty sure Nikki Haley would have won in a landslide if she had been the nominee. I also think if Barack Obama was running in 2024 he too would have won in a landslide.

The losing has nothing to do with gender or race. Nothing wrong with Democrats choosing a middle aged white guy, but if it’s bc of race and gender and not charisma and policy, they’re going to lose again.

Democrats haven’t had a free and open primary in a gazilion years. They really need one.

[Anonymous]

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Anonymous wrote:Gotta be a moderate, likeable, smart White male. Think JFK or Bill Clinton. Otherwise get ready to the permanent minority party.

This is where Andy Beshear comes in! perfect candidate. handsome. likable. smart. white. moderate. savvy enough.

It's a good thing Obama ran for office prior to when the racist took back over and proclaimed only "white" candidates are viable.

Crawl back under your rock!

Lol. Obama and I are the same race. go judge someone else buddy. It's very clear that America is NOT going to elect a women or person of color for some time. Y'all want white male moderates. so I tossed out one that I thought could actually work well. Reading too much into these post will make you look like an arse!

Oh yeah, the good ole "I'm not racist, I'm just telling you what racists think" spiel. A woman or POC is just as capable as the elderly white men you idiots are addicted to.

then why did two highly capable women lose to a felon? GTFOH with your gaslighting.

Because they were bad candidates with some bad policies. I’m pretty sure Nikki Haley would have won in a landslide if she had been the nominee. I also think if Barack Obama was running in 2024 he too would have won in a landslide.

The losing has nothing to do with gender or race. Nothing wrong with Democrats choosing a middle aged white guy, but if it’s bc of race and gender and not charisma and policy, they’re going to lose again.

Democrats haven’t had a free and open primary in a gazilion years. They really need one.

I do get what you are saying. it's just really hard to hear or read (Hillary or Kamala) being "bad candidates" with "some bad policies" when Trump is the worst candidate ever with policies that will destroy his own base. I get that the people voting for him don't see that. They see "someone who speaks his mind." "someone that talks plainly." "someone that gives us the feel that America is first." "someone that was a successful businessman."

while not perfect, I do think Hillary and especially Kamala are actually decent human beings who cared about helped EVERYONE not a select few. Meanwhile Trump DGAF about nobody outside the 1 percent. so comparatively...

and Nikki Haley is actually not even close to being as good as Hillary. but a conservative woman will pass before a liberal one. funny thing is--at the time, Hillary was a lot more moderate than how people painted her.

[Anonymous]

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Anonymous wrote:Gotta be a moderate, likeable, smart White male. Think JFK or Bill Clinton. Otherwise get ready to the permanent minority party.

This is where Andy Beshear comes in! perfect candidate. handsome. likable. smart. white. moderate. savvy enough.

It's a good thing Obama ran for office prior to when the racist took back over and proclaimed only "white" candidates are viable.

Crawl back under your rock!

Lol. Obama and I are the same race. go judge someone else buddy. It's very clear that America is NOT going to elect a women or person of color for some time. Y'all want white male moderates. so I tossed out one that I thought could actually work well. Reading too much into these post will make you look like an arse!

Oh yeah, the good ole "I'm not racist, I'm just telling you what racists think" spiel. A woman or POC is just as capable as the elderly white men you idiots are addicted to.

then why did two highly capable women lose to a felon? GTFOH with your gaslighting.

Because they were bad candidates with some bad policies. I’m pretty sure Nikki Haley would have won in a landslide if she had been the nominee. I also think if Barack Obama was running in 2024 he too would have won in a landslide.

The losing has nothing to do with gender or race. Nothing wrong with Democrats choosing a middle aged white guy, but if it’s bc of race and gender and not charisma and policy, they’re going to lose again.

Democrats haven’t had a free and open primary in a gazilion years. They really need one.

I do get what you are saying. it's just really hard to hear or read (Hillary or Kamala) being "bad candidates" with "some bad policies" when Trump is the worst candidate ever with policies that will destroy his own base. I get that the people voting for him don't see that. They see "someone who speaks his mind." "someone that talks plainly." "someone that gives us the feel that America is first." "someone that was a successful businessman."

while not perfect, I do think Hillary and especially Kamala are actually decent human beings who cared about helped EVERYONE not a select few. Meanwhile Trump DGAF about nobody outside the 1 percent. so comparatively...

and Nikki Haley is actually not even close to being as good as Hillary. but a conservative woman will pass before a liberal one. funny thing is--at the time, Hillary was a lot more moderate than how people painted her.

I’m one of the Democrat PPs who knew Trump was going to win easily in 2016 and 2024 and who has been frustrated by the DCUM bubble. I am what you might call an old-school Democrat: pro-labor, pro-education, pro-science (but as the Democrats used to be, not the ideological nonsense that Democratic positions on education and science engage in now). I want the Democrats back in power and I think Trump is destructive and harmful.

So with that as background, can I ask you seriously why on earth you believe the bolded? What makes you believe that is true? To the majority of the voting electorate (and to me) that seems just absolutely delusional.

Of course Trump only cares for himself. But this DCUM bubble around the bolded is crazy-making to me, because it’s just not seen as remotely true by most voters, and I don’t think it is true.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I really don't understand how some democrats cannot see that Trump is insanely popular. For christ sakes, folks voted for his revenge tour over a more optimistic outlook. that tells you everything right there.

I am a Democrat but one who was here begging people in 2016 and 2024 to see he’d win easily. I would not say he is insanely popular. People don’t like the unpredictability, they don’t like his crazy rants, they don’t like his open corruption.

But he is far, far more popular than the Democrats. Why? Because he is a populist. He is perceived as anti-war (and to be fair, that may be correct). He is seen as taking border issues seriously, which is an issue that rich DCUM Democrats are largely insulated from, but which has devastated lower- and middle-income communities. He is perceived as pushing back on the excesses of the left. Meanwhile the Democrats are perceived as the party of extremely rich elitist coastal Democrats who look down on everyone else.

And for electoral purposes, that is all that Trump needs. He doesn’t need to be insanely popular. He just needs to be a lot more popular than national Democrats, and he’s easily achieving that now.

Trump earned a place in politics as a viable candidate with a populist message in 2016 and he capitalized on the inevitable advantage the challenger party had on the incumbent party after the incumbent party has been in power for 8 years. He also worked his butt off campaigning in the mid-western swing states telling swing state voters everything they wanted to hear in a promise of change from status quo while HRC was lackadaisical in her campaign efforts in those same states relative to Trump. It's fair to say Trump earned the 2016 victory as much as any POTUS earns their victory and with all things considered, we shouldn't have been as surprised as many of us were when he won in 2016.

Trump then became even more unpopular than we could have ever imagined during his 1st term and lost to a relatively weak Dem candidate when 80 million people voted against him.

Trump maintained support of roughly 30% to 35% of American voters throughout Biden's term making him unbeatable in the GOP primary and then he capitalized on being in the right place at the right time as a POTUS candidate due to the unprecedented actions of an unprecedentedly weak incumbent party to become a two term president with his 2024 election victory.

That 30% to 35% of support from American voters would have been his ceiling against a legitimately presidential opponent who had been campaigning against Trump for 18 months. Trump would have been destroyed in 2024 if he were running against incumbents Obama in 2012 and Clinton in 1996. That's an indisputable fact.

Trump has maintained an impressive base of support from GOP voters since 2016. His support beyond the MAGA base fluctuates based on who his opponent is. Yes, Trump was reasonably popular in 2024 relative to the sitting POTUS at the time and he is popular with a majority of Republican voters. Otherwise, there are three Presidents in modern history who are in a class of their own as far as unpopularity goes and Trump is very much so one on those three. He lucked into his second term thanks to the actions of another of those three most unpopular presidents.

Popular enough in 2024 relative to the competition, yes, but that level of popular enough is not popular enough under normal circumstances and we should all hope it isn't a level of popularity that is good enough in any future election.

[Anonymous]

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Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I really don't understand how some democrats cannot see that Trump is insanely popular. For christ sakes, folks voted for his revenge tour over a more optimistic outlook. that tells you everything right there.

I am a Democrat but one who was here begging people in 2016 and 2024 to see he’d win easily. I would not say he is insanely popular. People don’t like the unpredictability, they don’t like his crazy rants, they don’t like his open corruption.

But he is far, far more popular than the Democrats. Why? Because he is a populist. He is perceived as anti-war (and to be fair, that may be correct). He is seen as taking border issues seriously, which is an issue that rich DCUM Democrats are largely insulated from, but which has devastated lower- and middle-income communities. He is perceived as pushing back on the excesses of the left. Meanwhile the Democrats are perceived as the party of extremely rich elitist coastal Democrats who look down on everyone else.

And for electoral purposes, that is all that Trump needs. He doesn’t need to be insanely popular. He just needs to be a lot more popular than national Democrats, and he’s easily achieving that now.

Trump earned a place in politics as a viable candidate with a populist message in 2016 and he capitalized on the inevitable advantage the challenger party had on the incumbent party after the incumbent party has been in power for 8 years. He also worked his butt off campaigning in the mid-western swing states telling swing state voters everything they wanted to hear in a promise of change from status quo while HRC was lackadaisical in her campaign efforts in those same states relative to Trump. It's fair to say Trump earned the 2016 victory as much as any POTUS earns their victory and with all things considered, we shouldn't have been as surprised as many of us were when he won in 2016.

Trump then became even more unpopular than we could have ever imagined during his 1st term and lost to a relatively weak Dem candidate when 80 million people voted against him.

Trump maintained support of roughly 30% to 35% of American voters throughout Biden's term making him unbeatable in the GOP primary and then he capitalized on being in the right place at the right time as a POTUS candidate due to the unprecedented actions of an unprecedentedly weak incumbent party to become a two term president with his 2024 election victory.

That 30% to 35% of support from American voters would have been his ceiling against a legitimately presidential opponent who had been campaigning against Trump for 18 months. Trump would have been destroyed in 2024 if he were running against incumbents Obama in 2012 and Clinton in 1996. That's an indisputable fact.

Trump has maintained an impressive base of support from GOP voters since 2016. His support beyond the MAGA base fluctuates based on who his opponent is. Yes, Trump was reasonably popular in 2024 relative to the sitting POTUS at the time and he is popular with a majority of Republican voters. Otherwise, there are three Presidents in modern history who are in a class of their own as far as unpopularity goes and Trump is very much so one on those three. He lucked into his second term thanks to the actions of another of those three most unpopular presidents.

Popular enough in 2024 relative to the competition, yes, but that level of popular enough is not popular enough under normal circumstances and we should all hope it isn't a level of popularity that is good enough in any future election.

What you are essentially saying is that the Democrats need to just hope that he’ll continue to be comparatively unpopular for 2028, thus tanking Vance’s chances against any of the Democratic front runners (including Harris).

I am the PP you are responding to and I think this is highly risky. It would be better if Trump ran, then Democrats can just go with a “too old” platform. But I think it will more likely be a younger MAGA acolyte, probably Vance. And while mainstream Democrats seem convinced Vance can’t win, I’m very skeptical of that (and I called it for Trump in spring of 2016 for reference, as well as early in 2024).

There are a couple of issues with popularity as a measure. First of all, polls have consistently underreported Trump’s popularity. He is embarrassing and tacky, and people will vote for him but will never tell a pollster. Secondly, he’s more popular than acknowledged with the youth voters, particularly Gen Z men. Polls are notoriously bad at capturing their mood.

Right now, I do not see a Democratic candidate who can defeat MAGA in 2028. I am hopeful one will come forward like Obama did, but none of the mainstream candidates can succeed IMO.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:AOC is a bartender, Whitmer just hid her face behind a binder at the White House like a child and French Laundry is so CA slicked back hair cringe.

I'll be interested to hear who the ors are?

So? Harry Truman was a haberdasher and one of our best presidents.

[Anonymous]

I am hoping that Kinzinger will switch parties or run as an Independent. AOC would be a good choice for his running mate

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I am hoping that Kinzinger will switch parties or run as an Independent. AOC would be a good choice for his running mate

Why do you think this pair is the best ticket?

[Anonymous]

AOC is unelectable.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I am hoping that Kinzinger will switch parties or run as an Independent. AOC would be a good choice for his running mate

This is why Democrats will lose again. They have no clue.

[Anonymous]

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Anonymous wrote:I really don't understand how some democrats cannot see that Trump is insanely popular. For christ sakes, folks voted for his revenge tour over a more optimistic outlook. that tells you everything right there.

I am a Democrat but one who was here begging people in 2016 and 2024 to see he’d win easily. I would not say he is insanely popular. People don’t like the unpredictability, they don’t like his crazy rants, they don’t like his open corruption.

But he is far, far more popular than the Democrats. Why? Because he is a populist. He is perceived as anti-war (and to be fair, that may be correct). He is seen as taking border issues seriously, which is an issue that rich DCUM Democrats are largely insulated from, but which has devastated lower- and middle-income communities. He is perceived as pushing back on the excesses of the left. Meanwhile the Democrats are perceived as the party of extremely rich elitist coastal Democrats who look down on everyone else.

And for electoral purposes, that is all that Trump needs. He doesn’t need to be insanely popular. He just needs to be a lot more popular than national Democrats, and he’s easily achieving that now.

Trump earned a place in politics as a viable candidate with a populist message in 2016 and he capitalized on the inevitable advantage the challenger party had on the incumbent party after the incumbent party has been in power for 8 years. He also worked his butt off campaigning in the mid-western swing states telling swing state voters everything they wanted to hear in a promise of change from status quo while HRC was lackadaisical in her campaign efforts in those same states relative to Trump. It's fair to say Trump earned the 2016 victory as much as any POTUS earns their victory and with all things considered, we shouldn't have been as surprised as many of us were when he won in 2016.

Trump then became even more unpopular than we could have ever imagined during his 1st term and lost to a relatively weak Dem candidate when 80 million people voted against him.

Trump maintained support of roughly 30% to 35% of American voters throughout Biden's term making him unbeatable in the GOP primary and then he capitalized on being in the right place at the right time as a POTUS candidate due to the unprecedented actions of an unprecedentedly weak incumbent party to become a two term president with his 2024 election victory.

That 30% to 35% of support from American voters would have been his ceiling against a legitimately presidential opponent who had been campaigning against Trump for 18 months. Trump would have been destroyed in 2024 if he were running against incumbents Obama in 2012 and Clinton in 1996. That's an indisputable fact.

Trump has maintained an impressive base of support from GOP voters since 2016. His support beyond the MAGA base fluctuates based on who his opponent is. Yes, Trump was reasonably popular in 2024 relative to the sitting POTUS at the time and he is popular with a majority of Republican voters. Otherwise, there are three Presidents in modern history who are in a class of their own as far as unpopularity goes and Trump is very much so one on those three. He lucked into his second term thanks to the actions of another of those three most unpopular presidents.

Popular enough in 2024 relative to the competition, yes, but that level of popular enough is not popular enough under normal circumstances and we should all hope it isn't a level of popularity that is good enough in any future election.

What you are essentially saying is that the Democrats need to just hope that he’ll continue to be comparatively unpopular for 2028, thus tanking Vance’s chances against any of the Democratic front runners (including Harris).

I am the PP you are responding to and I think this is highly risky. It would be better if Trump ran, then Democrats can just go with a “too old” platform. But I think it will more likely be a younger MAGA acolyte, probably Vance. And while mainstream Democrats seem convinced Vance can’t win, I’m very skeptical of that (and I called it for Trump in spring of 2016 for reference, as well as early in 2024).

There are a couple of issues with popularity as a measure. First of all, polls have consistently underreported Trump’s popularity. He is embarrassing and tacky, and people will vote for him but will never tell a pollster. Secondly, he’s more popular than acknowledged with the youth voters, particularly Gen Z men. Polls are notoriously bad at capturing their mood.

Right now, I do not see a Democratic candidate who can defeat MAGA in 2028. I am hopeful one will come forward like Obama did, but none of the mainstream candidates can succeed IMO.

Let's apply some common sense odds based on historical facts to the 2028 election preview.

If Trump exceeds expectations relative to his history as POTUS and has a 47% average 2nd term job approval rating maintained through Election day 2028, the 2028 GOP nominee will have a fair 50/50 chance in 2028. Political science tells us that a sitting POTUS with a job approval at Trump or Biden's 1st term averages gives the incumbent party zero chance of winning. If Trump becomes more popular among the small margins of people that determine whether or not 40% of American people approve of a president or 47% approve of a president, it means the Trump's second term will have evolved in a manner that all Americans should appreciate so I'd be okay with a Trump endorsed 2028 GOP nominee having a fair chance in the 2028 election. Odds of Trump being more popular in 2028 than he was 2020 by an impactful amount are less than 25% in my opinion just based on the facts that he is the same person and same politician and his second term hasn't begun in a manner that is a change in trajectory from his first term.

The odds of the Dem Party being able to put forth a nominee in 2028 who is as strong and appealing as Biden was in 2020 are very, very good odds. We don't know who that nominee will be at this point but safe to say, it doesn't take much to present a more likable, more fit, and more appealing candidate than 77 year old Biden to the swing voters seeking change from status quo.

Odds of 2nd term Trump out performing Trump 1st term by an impactful margin- 25% at best. Odds of the Dem Party not being able to put forth a nominee as strong or stronger than the nominee who beat 1st term Trump- 10% at best. The GOP nominee will inevitably have a chance in 2028 and could possibly have a 50/50 chance due to the variables in play but this common since analysis based on historical facts tells us Dems are the obvious favorites to retake The White House in 2028.

If you have an argument that makes sense against these odds, I'd love to hear it.

[Anonymous]

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Anonymous wrote:Vance(?)/Trump vs. Buttigieg/Obama
Only “elected” twice still.
Although according to Donald’s truth he would have been elected POTUS 3 times. But the Constitution doesn’t matter anymore anyway

Vance is in an interracial marriage.

Vance has zero chance of ever having success running for POTUS. Just ask Harris, Pence, and Mondale what political life is like after being VP of one of our 3 most unpopular presidents ever.

Repeating it does not make it true. Trump is not "unpopular". Not recognizing that is a huge part of the problem with many Democrats.

Well, he isn't unpopular relative Bin Laden and Jeffrey Dahmer but otherwise he is as unpopular as he was during his 1st term and even less popular than Biden was during the 1st year of his term. What happens to presidents as unpopular as Trump? They cause their party to lose big time in midterms and the next POTUS election.

If you don't understand these very basic facts that have been proven over and over recently, you're a complete idiot or just in denial.

You need to get out of the DCUM bubble. I bet you were "shocked" when he won both times because "everyone you know" wouldn’t vote for him. You’ll be "shocked" again when Vance wins. Like I said, not recognizing the popularity of Trump is a flaw of Democrats.

Trump earned his victory in 2016. He then fell on his face and LOST to an unfit and unlikable 77 year old in 2020. He then couldn't even secure 50% of the popular vote when gifted an easy election victory after the Dem incumbent fell on his face and backed out of the race just 3 months prior to Election Day.

Obama, Clinton, Reagan or any other reasonably popular candidate would have won in 2024 with 500 electoral votes and 70% of the popular vote. Why is it that Trump couldn't even garner 50% of the popular vote in this situation? Because he is, relative to the norm, a weak and unpopular politician.

Numbers don't lie. All I mention above happened! Just keep denying 2 + 2 = 4 and see where that gets you, idiot.

You keep mentioning popular vote like it matters, and I’m the idiot? Popular vote has zero to do with who wins the election. You do know that right?

What exactly is your point? Are you suggesting that Trump has magically changed his leopard spots and won't give the Dems easy election victories in 2026 & 2028 like he did in 2018 & 2020?

I hope you're right and he does magically transform into a reasonably popular president but as it stands, he is on the same trajectory as his first term. You have no substance that serves as a leg to stand on when suggesting his second term will evolve any differently than his first.

My point is outside of the DCUM bubble, he’s very popular. People here refuse to see it.

A valiant effort to pierce the DCUM bubble but it won’t work. I tried to warn people here before the 2016 and 2024 elections too, and was roundly scolded for even thinking Trump was going to easily win. Of course Clinton was going to win and of course Harris was going to win. DCUM said so.

It wasn’t “so obvious” either time. The polls had Clinton ahead for most of the race, and she actually got more popular votes.
And for Harris it was more equivocal but it was hard to imagine people for a lunatic like Trump (for the 3rd time).

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I really don't understand how some democrats cannot see that Trump is insanely popular. For christ sakes, folks voted for his revenge tour over a more optimistic outlook. that tells you everything right there.

I am a Democrat but one who was here begging people in 2016 and 2024 to see he’d win easily. I would not say he is insanely popular. People don’t like the unpredictability, they don’t like his crazy rants, they don’t like his open corruption.

But he is far, far more popular than the Democrats. Why? Because he is a populist. He is perceived as anti-war (and to be fair, that may be correct). He is seen as taking border issues seriously, which is an issue that rich DCUM Democrats are largely insulated from, but which has devastated lower- and middle-income communities. He is perceived as pushing back on the excesses of the left. Meanwhile the Democrats are perceived as the party of extremely rich elitist coastal Democrats who look down on everyone else.

And for electoral purposes, that is all that Trump needs. He doesn’t need to be insanely popular. He just needs to be a lot more popular than national Democrats, and he’s easily achieving that now.

Not sure how anyone can see democrats as rich elitist since we don’t have billionaires sitting behind our presidents during inauguration or on their staff.