Reply to Early Predictions 2028: AOC, Whitmer, Newsome or …?

Forum Index » Political Discussion

Reply to "Early Predictions 2028: AOC, Whitmer, Newsome or …?"

Subject:

Emoticons





More smilies

Text Color: Font: Close Marks

[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]I really don't understand how some democrats cannot see that Trump is insanely popular. For christ sakes, folks voted for his revenge tour over a more optimistic outlook. that tells you everything right there. [/quote]

I am a Democrat but one who was here begging people in 2016 and 2024 to see he’d win easily. I would not say he is insanely popular. People don’t like the unpredictability, they don’t like his crazy rants, they don’t like his open corruption.

But he is far, far more popular than the Democrats. Why? Because he is a populist. He is perceived as anti-war (and to be fair, that may be correct). He is seen as taking border issues seriously, which is an issue that rich DCUM Democrats are largely insulated from, but which has devastated lower- and middle-income communities. He is perceived as pushing back on the excesses of the left. Meanwhile the Democrats are perceived as the party of extremely rich elitist coastal Democrats who look down on everyone else.

And for electoral purposes, that is all that Trump needs. He doesn’t need to be insanely popular. He just needs to be a lot more popular than national Democrats, and he’s easily achieving that now. [/quote]

Trump earned a place in politics as a viable candidate with a populist message in 2016 and he capitalized on the inevitable advantage the challenger party had on the incumbent party after the incumbent party has been in power for 8 years. He also worked his butt off campaigning in the mid-western swing states telling swing state voters everything they wanted to hear in a promise of change from status quo while HRC was lackadaisical in her campaign efforts in those same states relative to Trump. It's fair to say Trump earned the 2016 victory as much as any POTUS earns their victory and with all things considered, we shouldn't have been as surprised as many of us were when he won in 2016.

Trump then became even more unpopular than we could have ever imagined during his 1st term and lost to a relatively weak Dem candidate when 80 million people voted against him.

Trump maintained support of roughly 30% to 35% of American voters throughout Biden's term making him unbeatable in the GOP primary and then he capitalized on being in the right place at the right time as a POTUS candidate due to the unprecedented actions of an unprecedentedly weak incumbent party to become a two term president with his 2024 election victory.

That 30% to 35% of support from American voters would have been his ceiling against a legitimately presidential opponent who had been campaigning against Trump for 18 months. Trump would have been destroyed in 2024 if he were running against incumbents Obama in 2012 and Clinton in 1996. That's an indisputable fact.

Trump has maintained an impressive base of support from GOP voters since 2016. His support beyond the MAGA base fluctuates based on who his opponent is. Yes, Trump was reasonably popular in 2024 relative to the sitting POTUS at the time and he is popular with a majority of Republican voters. Otherwise, there are three Presidents in modern history who are in a class of their own as far as unpopularity goes and Trump is very much so one on those three. He lucked into his second term thanks to the actions of another of those three most unpopular presidents.

Popular enough in 2024 relative to the competition, yes, but that level of popular enough is not popular enough under normal circumstances and we should all hope it isn't a level of popularity that is good enough in any future election.[/quote]

What you are essentially saying is that the Democrats need to just hope that he’ll continue to be comparatively unpopular for 2028, thus tanking Vance’s chances against any of the Democratic front runners (including Harris).

I am the PP you are responding to and I think this is highly risky. It would be better if Trump ran, then Democrats can just go with a “too old” platform. But I think it will more likely be a younger MAGA acolyte, probably Vance. And while mainstream Democrats seem convinced Vance can’t win, I’m very skeptical of that (and I called it for Trump in spring of 2016 for reference, as well as early in 2024).

There are a couple of issues with popularity as a measure. First of all, polls have consistently underreported Trump’s popularity. He is embarrassing and tacky, and people will vote for him but will never tell a pollster. Secondly, he’s more popular than acknowledged with the youth voters, particularly Gen Z men. Polls are notoriously bad at capturing their mood.

Right now, I do not see a Democratic candidate who can defeat MAGA in 2028. I am hopeful one will come forward like Obama did, but none of the mainstream candidates can succeed IMO. [/quote]

Let's apply some common sense odds based on historical facts to the 2028 election preview.

If Trump exceeds expectations relative to his history as POTUS and has a 47% average 2nd term job approval rating maintained through Election day 2028, the 2028 GOP nominee will have a fair 50/50 chance in 2028. Political science tells us that a sitting POTUS with a job approval at Trump or Biden's 1st term averages gives the incumbent party zero chance of winning. If Trump becomes more popular among the small margins of people that determine whether or not 40% of American people approve of a president or 47% approve of a president, it means the Trump's second term will have evolved in a manner that all Americans should appreciate so I'd be okay with a Trump endorsed 2028 GOP nominee having a fair chance in the 2028 election. Odds of Trump being more popular in 2028 than he was 2020 by an impactful amount are less than 25% in my opinion just based on the facts that he is the same person and same politician and his second term hasn't begun in a manner that is a change in trajectory from his first term.

The odds of the Dem Party being able to put forth a nominee in 2028 who is as strong and appealing as Biden was in 2020 are very, very good odds. We don't know who that nominee will be at this point but safe to say, it doesn't take much to present a more likable, more fit, and more appealing candidate than 77 year old Biden to the swing voters seeking change from status quo.

Odds of 2nd term Trump out performing Trump 1st term by an impactful margin- 25% at best. Odds of the Dem Party not being able to put forth a nominee as strong or stronger than the nominee who beat 1st term Trump- 10% at best. The GOP nominee will inevitably have a chance in 2028 and could possibly have a 50/50 chance due to the variables in play but this common since analysis based on historical facts tells us Dems are the obvious favorites to retake The White House in 2028.

If you have an argument that makes sense against these odds, I'd love to hear it. 
 
[/quote]

Options

	Disable HTML in this message
	Disable BB Code in this message
	Disable smilies in this message

Review message

Search Recent Topics Hottest Topics