Early Predictions 2028: AOC, Whitmer, Newsome or …?

[Anonymous]

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Anonymous wrote:Vance(?)/Trump vs. Buttigieg/Obama
Only “elected” twice still.
Although according to Donald’s truth he would have been elected POTUS 3 times. But the Constitution doesn’t matter anymore anyway

Vance is in an interracial marriage.

Vance has zero chance of ever having success running for POTUS. Just ask Harris, Pence, and Mondale what political life is like after being VP of one of our 3 most unpopular presidents ever.

Repeating it does not make it true. Trump is not "unpopular". Not recognizing that is a huge part of the problem with many Democrats.

Well, he isn't unpopular relative Bin Laden and Jeffrey Dahmer but otherwise he is as unpopular as he was during his 1st term and even less popular than Biden was during the 1st year of his term. What happens to presidents as unpopular as Trump? They cause their party to lose big time in midterms and the next POTUS election.

If you don't understand these very basic facts that have been proven over and over recently, you're a complete idiot or just in denial.

You need to get out of the DCUM bubble. I bet you were "shocked" when he won both times because "everyone you know" wouldn’t vote for him. You’ll be "shocked" again when Vance wins. Like I said, not recognizing the popularity of Trump is a flaw of Democrats.

Trump earned his victory in 2016. He then fell on his face and LOST to an unfit and unlikable 77 year old in 2020. He then couldn't even secure 50% of the popular vote when gifted an easy election victory after the Dem incumbent fell on his face and backed out of the race just 3 months prior to Election Day.

Obama, Clinton, Reagan or any other reasonably popular candidate would have won in 2024 with 500 electoral votes and 70% of the popular vote. Why is it that Trump couldn't even garner 50% of the popular vote in this situation? Because he is, relative to the norm, a weak and unpopular politician.

Numbers don't lie. All I mention above happened! Just keep denying 2 + 2 = 4 and see where that gets you, idiot.

You keep mentioning popular vote like it matters, and I’m the idiot? Popular vote has zero to do with who wins the election. You do know that right?

What exactly is your point? Are you suggesting that Trump has magically changed his leopard spots and won't give the Dems easy election victories in 2026 & 2028 like he did in 2018 & 2020?

I hope you're right and he does magically transform into a reasonably popular president but as it stands, he is on the same trajectory as his first term. You have no substance that serves as a leg to stand on when suggesting his second term will evolve any differently than his first.

My point is outside of the DCUM bubble, he’s very popular. People here refuse to see it.

A valiant effort to pierce the DCUM bubble but it won’t work. I tried to warn people here before the 2016 and 2024 elections too, and was roundly scolded for even thinking Trump was going to easily win. Of course Clinton was going to win and of course Harris was going to win. DCUM said so.

It wasn’t “so obvious” either time. The polls had Clinton ahead for most of the race, and she actually got more popular votes.
And for Harris it was more equivocal but it was hard to imagine people for a lunatic like Trump (for the 3rd time).

It was obvious to anyone with even a modicum of common sense. Or anyone who talked to anyone outside of wealthy rich Democrats. Or anyone who drove through the suburbs of swing states and saw the vast numbers of Trump signs, particularly in working class neighborhoods.

I’ll grant you that it wasn’t obvious to people in the DCUM sealed bubble. That would mean they’d have to talk to people they despise.

[Anonymous]

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Anonymous wrote:Vance(?)/Trump vs. Buttigieg/Obama
Only “elected” twice still.
Although according to Donald’s truth he would have been elected POTUS 3 times. But the Constitution doesn’t matter anymore anyway

Vance is in an interracial marriage.

Vance has zero chance of ever having success running for POTUS. Just ask Harris, Pence, and Mondale what political life is like after being VP of one of our 3 most unpopular presidents ever.

Repeating it does not make it true. Trump is not "unpopular". Not recognizing that is a huge part of the problem with many Democrats.

Well, he isn't unpopular relative Bin Laden and Jeffrey Dahmer but otherwise he is as unpopular as he was during his 1st term and even less popular than Biden was during the 1st year of his term. What happens to presidents as unpopular as Trump? They cause their party to lose big time in midterms and the next POTUS election.

If you don't understand these very basic facts that have been proven over and over recently, you're a complete idiot or just in denial.

You need to get out of the DCUM bubble. I bet you were "shocked" when he won both times because "everyone you know" wouldn’t vote for him. You’ll be "shocked" again when Vance wins. Like I said, not recognizing the popularity of Trump is a flaw of Democrats.

Trump earned his victory in 2016. He then fell on his face and LOST to an unfit and unlikable 77 year old in 2020. He then couldn't even secure 50% of the popular vote when gifted an easy election victory after the Dem incumbent fell on his face and backed out of the race just 3 months prior to Election Day.

Obama, Clinton, Reagan or any other reasonably popular candidate would have won in 2024 with 500 electoral votes and 70% of the popular vote. Why is it that Trump couldn't even garner 50% of the popular vote in this situation? Because he is, relative to the norm, a weak and unpopular politician.

Numbers don't lie. All I mention above happened! Just keep denying 2 + 2 = 4 and see where that gets you, idiot.

You keep mentioning popular vote like it matters, and I’m the idiot? Popular vote has zero to do with who wins the election. You do know that right?

What exactly is your point? Are you suggesting that Trump has magically changed his leopard spots and won't give the Dems easy election victories in 2026 & 2028 like he did in 2018 & 2020?

I hope you're right and he does magically transform into a reasonably popular president but as it stands, he is on the same trajectory as his first term. You have no substance that serves as a leg to stand on when suggesting his second term will evolve any differently than his first.

My point is outside of the DCUM bubble, he’s very popular. People here refuse to see it.

A valiant effort to pierce the DCUM bubble but it won’t work. I tried to warn people here before the 2016 and 2024 elections too, and was roundly scolded for even thinking Trump was going to easily win. Of course Clinton was going to win and of course Harris was going to win. DCUM said so.

It wasn’t “so obvious” either time. The polls had Clinton ahead for most of the race, and she actually got more popular votes.
And for Harris it was more equivocal but it was hard to imagine people for a lunatic like Trump (for the 3rd time).

Experts were 85% sure Biden wasn't going to win in 2024 prior to the debate, 97% sure after the debate, and 100% sure when it was full month after the debate before he exited the race. Any GOP nominee with a pulse would have been victorious in 2024. That lucky soul just happened to be Trump.

The end result in 2024 had very little to do with Harris and Trump; it was all about the unprecedented incumbent party failure stemming from Biden's unpopularity, his choice to seek a second term, and then the circumstances behind and timing of his exit from the race.

[Anonymous]

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Anonymous wrote:I really don't understand how some democrats cannot see that Trump is insanely popular. For christ sakes, folks voted for his revenge tour over a more optimistic outlook. that tells you everything right there.

I am a Democrat but one who was here begging people in 2016 and 2024 to see he’d win easily. I would not say he is insanely popular. People don’t like the unpredictability, they don’t like his crazy rants, they don’t like his open corruption.

But he is far, far more popular than the Democrats. Why? Because he is a populist. He is perceived as anti-war (and to be fair, that may be correct). He is seen as taking border issues seriously, which is an issue that rich DCUM Democrats are largely insulated from, but which has devastated lower- and middle-income communities. He is perceived as pushing back on the excesses of the left. Meanwhile the Democrats are perceived as the party of extremely rich elitist coastal Democrats who look down on everyone else.

And for electoral purposes, that is all that Trump needs. He doesn’t need to be insanely popular. He just needs to be a lot more popular than national Democrats, and he’s easily achieving that now.

Trump earned a place in politics as a viable candidate with a populist message in 2016 and he capitalized on the inevitable advantage the challenger party had on the incumbent party after the incumbent party has been in power for 8 years. He also worked his butt off campaigning in the mid-western swing states telling swing state voters everything they wanted to hear in a promise of change from status quo while HRC was lackadaisical in her campaign efforts in those same states relative to Trump. It's fair to say Trump earned the 2016 victory as much as any POTUS earns their victory and with all things considered, we shouldn't have been as surprised as many of us were when he won in 2016.

Trump then became even more unpopular than we could have ever imagined during his 1st term and lost to a relatively weak Dem candidate when 80 million people voted against him.

Trump maintained support of roughly 30% to 35% of American voters throughout Biden's term making him unbeatable in the GOP primary and then he capitalized on being in the right place at the right time as a POTUS candidate due to the unprecedented actions of an unprecedentedly weak incumbent party to become a two term president with his 2024 election victory.

That 30% to 35% of support from American voters would have been his ceiling against a legitimately presidential opponent who had been campaigning against Trump for 18 months. Trump would have been destroyed in 2024 if he were running against incumbents Obama in 2012 and Clinton in 1996. That's an indisputable fact.

Trump has maintained an impressive base of support from GOP voters since 2016. His support beyond the MAGA base fluctuates based on who his opponent is. Yes, Trump was reasonably popular in 2024 relative to the sitting POTUS at the time and he is popular with a majority of Republican voters. Otherwise, there are three Presidents in modern history who are in a class of their own as far as unpopularity goes and Trump is very much so one on those three. He lucked into his second term thanks to the actions of another of those three most unpopular presidents.

Popular enough in 2024 relative to the competition, yes, but that level of popular enough is not popular enough under normal circumstances and we should all hope it isn't a level of popularity that is good enough in any future election.

What you are essentially saying is that the Democrats need to just hope that he’ll continue to be comparatively unpopular for 2028, thus tanking Vance’s chances against any of the Democratic front runners (including Harris).

I am the PP you are responding to and I think this is highly risky. It would be better if Trump ran, then Democrats can just go with a “too old” platform. But I think it will more likely be a younger MAGA acolyte, probably Vance. And while mainstream Democrats seem convinced Vance can’t win, I’m very skeptical of that (and I called it for Trump in spring of 2016 for reference, as well as early in 2024).

There are a couple of issues with popularity as a measure. First of all, polls have consistently underreported Trump’s popularity. He is embarrassing and tacky, and people will vote for him but will never tell a pollster. Secondly, he’s more popular than acknowledged with the youth voters, particularly Gen Z men. Polls are notoriously bad at capturing their mood.

Right now, I do not see a Democratic candidate who can defeat MAGA in 2028. I am hopeful one will come forward like Obama did, but none of the mainstream candidates can succeed IMO.

Let's apply some common sense odds based on historical facts to the 2028 election preview.

If Trump exceeds expectations relative to his history as POTUS and has a 47% average 2nd term job approval rating maintained through Election day 2028, the 2028 GOP nominee will have a fair 50/50 chance in 2028. Political science tells us that a sitting POTUS with a job approval at Trump or Biden's 1st term averages gives the incumbent party zero chance of winning. If Trump becomes more popular among the small margins of people that determine whether or not 40% of American people approve of a president or 47% approve of a president, it means the Trump's second term will have evolved in a manner that all Americans should appreciate so I'd be okay with a Trump endorsed 2028 GOP nominee having a fair chance in the 2028 election. Odds of Trump being more popular in 2028 than he was 2020 by an impactful amount are less than 25% in my opinion just based on the facts that he is the same person and same politician and his second term hasn't begun in a manner that is a change in trajectory from his first term.

The odds of the Dem Party being able to put forth a nominee in 2028 who is as strong and appealing as Biden was in 2020 are very, very good odds. We don't know who that nominee will be at this point but safe to say, it doesn't take much to present a more likable, more fit, and more appealing candidate than 77 year old Biden to the swing voters seeking change from status quo.

Odds of 2nd term Trump out performing Trump 1st term by an impactful margin- 25% at best. Odds of the Dem Party not being able to put forth a nominee as strong or stronger than the nominee who beat 1st term Trump- 10% at best. The GOP nominee will inevitably have a chance in 2028 and could possibly have a 50/50 chance due to the variables in play but this common since analysis based on historical facts tells us Dems are the obvious favorites to retake The White House in 2028.

If you have an argument that makes sense against these odds, I'd love to hear it.

Sounds like you think Democrats don’t need to worry at all and should continue down the current course (which shows Harris as the leading candidate).

[Anonymous]

It’ll be Josh Shapiro. It’s really obvious, to me.

[Anonymous]

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Anonymous wrote:I really don't understand how some democrats cannot see that Trump is insanely popular. For christ sakes, folks voted for his revenge tour over a more optimistic outlook. that tells you everything right there.

I am a Democrat but one who was here begging people in 2016 and 2024 to see he’d win easily. I would not say he is insanely popular. People don’t like the unpredictability, they don’t like his crazy rants, they don’t like his open corruption.

But he is far, far more popular than the Democrats. Why? Because he is a populist. He is perceived as anti-war (and to be fair, that may be correct). He is seen as taking border issues seriously, which is an issue that rich DCUM Democrats are largely insulated from, but which has devastated lower- and middle-income communities. He is perceived as pushing back on the excesses of the left. Meanwhile the Democrats are perceived as the party of extremely rich elitist coastal Democrats who look down on everyone else.

And for electoral purposes, that is all that Trump needs. He doesn’t need to be insanely popular. He just needs to be a lot more popular than national Democrats, and he’s easily achieving that now.

Trump earned a place in politics as a viable candidate with a populist message in 2016 and he capitalized on the inevitable advantage the challenger party had on the incumbent party after the incumbent party has been in power for 8 years. He also worked his butt off campaigning in the mid-western swing states telling swing state voters everything they wanted to hear in a promise of change from status quo while HRC was lackadaisical in her campaign efforts in those same states relative to Trump. It's fair to say Trump earned the 2016 victory as much as any POTUS earns their victory and with all things considered, we shouldn't have been as surprised as many of us were when he won in 2016.

Trump then became even more unpopular than we could have ever imagined during his 1st term and lost to a relatively weak Dem candidate when 80 million people voted against him.

Trump maintained support of roughly 30% to 35% of American voters throughout Biden's term making him unbeatable in the GOP primary and then he capitalized on being in the right place at the right time as a POTUS candidate due to the unprecedented actions of an unprecedentedly weak incumbent party to become a two term president with his 2024 election victory.

That 30% to 35% of support from American voters would have been his ceiling against a legitimately presidential opponent who had been campaigning against Trump for 18 months. Trump would have been destroyed in 2024 if he were running against incumbents Obama in 2012 and Clinton in 1996. That's an indisputable fact.

Trump has maintained an impressive base of support from GOP voters since 2016. His support beyond the MAGA base fluctuates based on who his opponent is. Yes, Trump was reasonably popular in 2024 relative to the sitting POTUS at the time and he is popular with a majority of Republican voters. Otherwise, there are three Presidents in modern history who are in a class of their own as far as unpopularity goes and Trump is very much so one on those three. He lucked into his second term thanks to the actions of another of those three most unpopular presidents.

Popular enough in 2024 relative to the competition, yes, but that level of popular enough is not popular enough under normal circumstances and we should all hope it isn't a level of popularity that is good enough in any future election.

What you are essentially saying is that the Democrats need to just hope that he’ll continue to be comparatively unpopular for 2028, thus tanking Vance’s chances against any of the Democratic front runners (including Harris).

I am the PP you are responding to and I think this is highly risky. It would be better if Trump ran, then Democrats can just go with a “too old” platform. But I think it will more likely be a younger MAGA acolyte, probably Vance. And while mainstream Democrats seem convinced Vance can’t win, I’m very skeptical of that (and I called it for Trump in spring of 2016 for reference, as well as early in 2024).

There are a couple of issues with popularity as a measure. First of all, polls have consistently underreported Trump’s popularity. He is embarrassing and tacky, and people will vote for him but will never tell a pollster. Secondly, he’s more popular than acknowledged with the youth voters, particularly Gen Z men. Polls are notoriously bad at capturing their mood.

Right now, I do not see a Democratic candidate who can defeat MAGA in 2028. I am hopeful one will come forward like Obama did, but none of the mainstream candidates can succeed IMO.

Let's apply some common sense odds based on historical facts to the 2028 election preview.

If Trump exceeds expectations relative to his history as POTUS and has a 47% average 2nd term job approval rating maintained through Election day 2028, the 2028 GOP nominee will have a fair 50/50 chance in 2028. Political science tells us that a sitting POTUS with a job approval at Trump or Biden's 1st term averages gives the incumbent party zero chance of winning. If Trump becomes more popular among the small margins of people that determine whether or not 40% of American people approve of a president or 47% approve of a president, it means the Trump's second term will have evolved in a manner that all Americans should appreciate so I'd be okay with a Trump endorsed 2028 GOP nominee having a fair chance in the 2028 election. Odds of Trump being more popular in 2028 than he was 2020 by an impactful amount are less than 25% in my opinion just based on the facts that he is the same person and same politician and his second term hasn't begun in a manner that is a change in trajectory from his first term.

The odds of the Dem Party being able to put forth a nominee in 2028 who is as strong and appealing as Biden was in 2020 are very, very good odds. We don't know who that nominee will be at this point but safe to say, it doesn't take much to present a more likable, more fit, and more appealing candidate than 77 year old Biden to the swing voters seeking change from status quo.

Odds of 2nd term Trump out performing Trump 1st term by an impactful margin- 25% at best. Odds of the Dem Party not being able to put forth a nominee as strong or stronger than the nominee who beat 1st term Trump- 10% at best. The GOP nominee will inevitably have a chance in 2028 and could possibly have a 50/50 chance due to the variables in play but this common since analysis based on historical facts tells us Dems are the obvious favorites to retake The White House in 2028.

If you have an argument that makes sense against these odds, I'd love to hear it.

Sounds like you think Democrats don’t need to worry at all and should continue down the current course (which shows Harris as the leading candidate).

Both the RNC and DNC along with their investors should be very worried about the political futures of the GOP and Dem Party which includes the 2028 election.

Based on political science, data from recent history, and common sense, the Dems have a very likely advantage go into 2028. Nothing is guaranteed and this could change if public perception of Trump is much more positive in 2028 than it was in 2020. If so, great for Trump and great for our country.

If you are willing to bet a significant amount of cash on the public perception of Trump being at least 5% greater in job approval rating in 2028 than it was in 2020, I'll take that bet all day, any day.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:It’ll be Josh Shapiro. It’s really obvious, to me.

I like him and I like Beshear...although he's a bit milquetoast. But I like Prtizker better. He's more of a fighter and I like that. He's not going to get run over when he comes to DC
Shapiro and Beshear seem very willing to compromise. That's their identity and it's fine. But I don't really want to see that 3 years from now. I want to see the next guy taking names and kicking ass.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

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Anonymous wrote:I really don't understand how some democrats cannot see that Trump is insanely popular. For christ sakes, folks voted for his revenge tour over a more optimistic outlook. that tells you everything right there.

I am a Democrat but one who was here begging people in 2016 and 2024 to see he’d win easily. I would not say he is insanely popular. People don’t like the unpredictability, they don’t like his crazy rants, they don’t like his open corruption.

But he is far, far more popular than the Democrats. Why? Because he is a populist. He is perceived as anti-war (and to be fair, that may be correct). He is seen as taking border issues seriously, which is an issue that rich DCUM Democrats are largely insulated from, but which has devastated lower- and middle-income communities. He is perceived as pushing back on the excesses of the left. Meanwhile the Democrats are perceived as the party of extremely rich elitist coastal Democrats who look down on everyone else.

And for electoral purposes, that is all that Trump needs. He doesn’t need to be insanely popular. He just needs to be a lot more popular than national Democrats, and he’s easily achieving that now.

Trump earned a place in politics as a viable candidate with a populist message in 2016 and he capitalized on the inevitable advantage the challenger party had on the incumbent party after the incumbent party has been in power for 8 years. He also worked his butt off campaigning in the mid-western swing states telling swing state voters everything they wanted to hear in a promise of change from status quo while HRC was lackadaisical in her campaign efforts in those same states relative to Trump. It's fair to say Trump earned the 2016 victory as much as any POTUS earns their victory and with all things considered, we shouldn't have been as surprised as many of us were when he won in 2016.

Trump then became even more unpopular than we could have ever imagined during his 1st term and lost to a relatively weak Dem candidate when 80 million people voted against him.

Trump maintained support of roughly 30% to 35% of American voters throughout Biden's term making him unbeatable in the GOP primary and then he capitalized on being in the right place at the right time as a POTUS candidate due to the unprecedented actions of an unprecedentedly weak incumbent party to become a two term president with his 2024 election victory.

That 30% to 35% of support from American voters would have been his ceiling against a legitimately presidential opponent who had been campaigning against Trump for 18 months. Trump would have been destroyed in 2024 if he were running against incumbents Obama in 2012 and Clinton in 1996. That's an indisputable fact.

Trump has maintained an impressive base of support from GOP voters since 2016. His support beyond the MAGA base fluctuates based on who his opponent is. Yes, Trump was reasonably popular in 2024 relative to the sitting POTUS at the time and he is popular with a majority of Republican voters. Otherwise, there are three Presidents in modern history who are in a class of their own as far as unpopularity goes and Trump is very much so one on those three. He lucked into his second term thanks to the actions of another of those three most unpopular presidents.

Popular enough in 2024 relative to the competition, yes, but that level of popular enough is not popular enough under normal circumstances and we should all hope it isn't a level of popularity that is good enough in any future election.

What you are essentially saying is that the Democrats need to just hope that he’ll continue to be comparatively unpopular for 2028, thus tanking Vance’s chances against any of the Democratic front runners (including Harris).

I am the PP you are responding to and I think this is highly risky. It would be better if Trump ran, then Democrats can just go with a “too old” platform. But I think it will more likely be a younger MAGA acolyte, probably Vance. And while mainstream Democrats seem convinced Vance can’t win, I’m very skeptical of that (and I called it for Trump in spring of 2016 for reference, as well as early in 2024).

There are a couple of issues with popularity as a measure. First of all, polls have consistently underreported Trump’s popularity. He is embarrassing and tacky, and people will vote for him but will never tell a pollster. Secondly, he’s more popular than acknowledged with the youth voters, particularly Gen Z men. Polls are notoriously bad at capturing their mood.

Right now, I do not see a Democratic candidate who can defeat MAGA in 2028. I am hopeful one will come forward like Obama did, but none of the mainstream candidates can succeed IMO.

Let's apply some common sense odds based on historical facts to the 2028 election preview.

If Trump exceeds expectations relative to his history as POTUS and has a 47% average 2nd term job approval rating maintained through Election day 2028, the 2028 GOP nominee will have a fair 50/50 chance in 2028. Political science tells us that a sitting POTUS with a job approval at Trump or Biden's 1st term averages gives the incumbent party zero chance of winning. If Trump becomes more popular among the small margins of people that determine whether or not 40% of American people approve of a president or 47% approve of a president, it means the Trump's second term will have evolved in a manner that all Americans should appreciate so I'd be okay with a Trump endorsed 2028 GOP nominee having a fair chance in the 2028 election. Odds of Trump being more popular in 2028 than he was 2020 by an impactful amount are less than 25% in my opinion just based on the facts that he is the same person and same politician and his second term hasn't begun in a manner that is a change in trajectory from his first term.

The odds of the Dem Party being able to put forth a nominee in 2028 who is as strong and appealing as Biden was in 2020 are very, very good odds. We don't know who that nominee will be at this point but safe to say, it doesn't take much to present a more likable, more fit, and more appealing candidate than 77 year old Biden to the swing voters seeking change from status quo.

Odds of 2nd term Trump out performing Trump 1st term by an impactful margin- 25% at best. Odds of the Dem Party not being able to put forth a nominee as strong or stronger than the nominee who beat 1st term Trump- 10% at best. The GOP nominee will inevitably have a chance in 2028 and could possibly have a 50/50 chance due to the variables in play but this common since analysis based on historical facts tells us Dems are the obvious favorites to retake The White House in 2028.

If you have an argument that makes sense against these odds, I'd love to hear it.

Sounds like you think Democrats don’t need to worry at all and should continue down the current course (which shows Harris as the leading candidate).

Both the RNC and DNC along with their investors should be very worried about the political futures of the GOP and Dem Party which includes the 2028 election.

Based on political science, data from recent history, and common sense, the Dems have a very likely advantage go into 2028. Nothing is guaranteed and this could change if public perception of Trump is much more positive in 2028 than it was in 2020. If so, great for Trump and great for our country.

If you are willing to bet a significant amount of cash on the public perception of Trump being at least 5% greater in job approval rating in 2028 than it was in 2020, I'll take that bet all day, any day.

It is weird to me how you think historic patterns will operate as usual here. I think it is entirely likely that Trump will be deeply unpopular but a Democratic candidate will be unable to unify a fractured base and therefore lose. I don’t think you realize just how hated the Democrats are now.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

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Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I really don't understand how some democrats cannot see that Trump is insanely popular. For christ sakes, folks voted for his revenge tour over a more optimistic outlook. that tells you everything right there.

I am a Democrat but one who was here begging people in 2016 and 2024 to see he’d win easily. I would not say he is insanely popular. People don’t like the unpredictability, they don’t like his crazy rants, they don’t like his open corruption.

But he is far, far more popular than the Democrats. Why? Because he is a populist. He is perceived as anti-war (and to be fair, that may be correct). He is seen as taking border issues seriously, which is an issue that rich DCUM Democrats are largely insulated from, but which has devastated lower- and middle-income communities. He is perceived as pushing back on the excesses of the left. Meanwhile the Democrats are perceived as the party of extremely rich elitist coastal Democrats who look down on everyone else.

And for electoral purposes, that is all that Trump needs. He doesn’t need to be insanely popular. He just needs to be a lot more popular than national Democrats, and he’s easily achieving that now.

Trump earned a place in politics as a viable candidate with a populist message in 2016 and he capitalized on the inevitable advantage the challenger party had on the incumbent party after the incumbent party has been in power for 8 years. He also worked his butt off campaigning in the mid-western swing states telling swing state voters everything they wanted to hear in a promise of change from status quo while HRC was lackadaisical in her campaign efforts in those same states relative to Trump. It's fair to say Trump earned the 2016 victory as much as any POTUS earns their victory and with all things considered, we shouldn't have been as surprised as many of us were when he won in 2016.

Trump then became even more unpopular than we could have ever imagined during his 1st term and lost to a relatively weak Dem candidate when 80 million people voted against him.

Trump maintained support of roughly 30% to 35% of American voters throughout Biden's term making him unbeatable in the GOP primary and then he capitalized on being in the right place at the right time as a POTUS candidate due to the unprecedented actions of an unprecedentedly weak incumbent party to become a two term president with his 2024 election victory.

That 30% to 35% of support from American voters would have been his ceiling against a legitimately presidential opponent who had been campaigning against Trump for 18 months. Trump would have been destroyed in 2024 if he were running against incumbents Obama in 2012 and Clinton in 1996. That's an indisputable fact.

Trump has maintained an impressive base of support from GOP voters since 2016. His support beyond the MAGA base fluctuates based on who his opponent is. Yes, Trump was reasonably popular in 2024 relative to the sitting POTUS at the time and he is popular with a majority of Republican voters. Otherwise, there are three Presidents in modern history who are in a class of their own as far as unpopularity goes and Trump is very much so one on those three. He lucked into his second term thanks to the actions of another of those three most unpopular presidents.

Popular enough in 2024 relative to the competition, yes, but that level of popular enough is not popular enough under normal circumstances and we should all hope it isn't a level of popularity that is good enough in any future election.

What you are essentially saying is that the Democrats need to just hope that he’ll continue to be comparatively unpopular for 2028, thus tanking Vance’s chances against any of the Democratic front runners (including Harris).

I am the PP you are responding to and I think this is highly risky. It would be better if Trump ran, then Democrats can just go with a “too old” platform. But I think it will more likely be a younger MAGA acolyte, probably Vance. And while mainstream Democrats seem convinced Vance can’t win, I’m very skeptical of that (and I called it for Trump in spring of 2016 for reference, as well as early in 2024).

There are a couple of issues with popularity as a measure. First of all, polls have consistently underreported Trump’s popularity. He is embarrassing and tacky, and people will vote for him but will never tell a pollster. Secondly, he’s more popular than acknowledged with the youth voters, particularly Gen Z men. Polls are notoriously bad at capturing their mood.

Right now, I do not see a Democratic candidate who can defeat MAGA in 2028. I am hopeful one will come forward like Obama did, but none of the mainstream candidates can succeed IMO.

Let's apply some common sense odds based on historical facts to the 2028 election preview.

If Trump exceeds expectations relative to his history as POTUS and has a 47% average 2nd term job approval rating maintained through Election day 2028, the 2028 GOP nominee will have a fair 50/50 chance in 2028. Political science tells us that a sitting POTUS with a job approval at Trump or Biden's 1st term averages gives the incumbent party zero chance of winning. If Trump becomes more popular among the small margins of people that determine whether or not 40% of American people approve of a president or 47% approve of a president, it means the Trump's second term will have evolved in a manner that all Americans should appreciate so I'd be okay with a Trump endorsed 2028 GOP nominee having a fair chance in the 2028 election. Odds of Trump being more popular in 2028 than he was 2020 by an impactful amount are less than 25% in my opinion just based on the facts that he is the same person and same politician and his second term hasn't begun in a manner that is a change in trajectory from his first term.

The odds of the Dem Party being able to put forth a nominee in 2028 who is as strong and appealing as Biden was in 2020 are very, very good odds. We don't know who that nominee will be at this point but safe to say, it doesn't take much to present a more likable, more fit, and more appealing candidate than 77 year old Biden to the swing voters seeking change from status quo.

Odds of 2nd term Trump out performing Trump 1st term by an impactful margin- 25% at best. Odds of the Dem Party not being able to put forth a nominee as strong or stronger than the nominee who beat 1st term Trump- 10% at best. The GOP nominee will inevitably have a chance in 2028 and could possibly have a 50/50 chance due to the variables in play but this common since analysis based on historical facts tells us Dems are the obvious favorites to retake The White House in 2028.

If you have an argument that makes sense against these odds, I'd love to hear it.

Sounds like you think Democrats don’t need to worry at all and should continue down the current course (which shows Harris as the leading candidate).

Both the RNC and DNC along with their investors should be very worried about the political futures of the GOP and Dem Party which includes the 2028 election.

Based on political science, data from recent history, and common sense, the Dems have a very likely advantage go into 2028. Nothing is guaranteed and this could change if public perception of Trump is much more positive in 2028 than it was in 2020. If so, great for Trump and great for our country.

If you are willing to bet a significant amount of cash on the public perception of Trump being at least 5% greater in job approval rating in 2028 than it was in 2020, I'll take that bet all day, any day.

It is weird to me how you think historic patterns will operate as usual here. I think it is entirely likely that Trump will be deeply unpopular but a Democratic candidate will be unable to unify a fractured base and therefore lose. I don’t think you realize just how hated the Democrats are now.

I'm not one to bury myself into the emotional turmoil that naturally festers during the months following a disappointing election cycle. Such emotional swings lead to irrational thinking. Of course many faithful Dems are feeling hopeless in May of 2025 just like they were in May of 2017. Facts, numbers, trends, and common sense matter to those seeking to make objective and accurate predictions. We watched a historically unpopular incumbent sitting POTUS gift the 2020 election to a relatively weak opponent and we watched the same thing happen again in 2024. Trump is more likely than not to remain the same historically unpopular POTUS he was during his first term. That's not a biased opinion cast upon Trump; that's an odds based prediction based on political science and human nature.

You're suggesting that the current Dem unpopularity in the wake of the 2024 Biden election debacle will carry on through 2028. That simply isn't how the minds of swing voters in swing states work and those are the folks who determine election outcomes. Odds are very much so in the favor of swing voters in swing states seeking out the candidate that represents "change" from status quo 2028 just like they did in 2020 and 2024. That change candidate won't be the 2028 GOP nominee.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I am hoping that Kinzinger will switch parties or run as an Independent. AOC would be a good choice for his running mate

Why do you think this pair is the best ticket?

He appeals to true Republican s and moderate Dems. She appeals to more liberal Dems and Latinos.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:It’ll be Josh Shapiro. It’s really obvious, to me.

He is Jewish and cannot win.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It’ll be Josh Shapiro. It’s really obvious, to me.

He is Jewish and cannot win.

So not only are we ruling people out based on their gender, we are also ruling people out based on their religious affiliation. What a great winning strategy!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I really don't understand how some democrats cannot see that Trump is insanely popular. For christ sakes, folks voted for his revenge tour over a more optimistic outlook. that tells you everything right there.

He is “insanely popular” with 40 percent of the country. An equal percentage of the country loathes him. If the Dems hadn’t fumbled the 2024 election by allowing Biden to run again and then drop out when it was too late for a primary, they would have won.

[Anonymous]

Maybe George Clooney will start funding others and start his own campaign.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I really don't understand how some democrats cannot see that Trump is insanely popular. For christ sakes, folks voted for his revenge tour over a more optimistic outlook. that tells you everything right there.

He is “insanely popular” with 40 percent of the country. An equal percentage of the country loathes him. If the Dems hadn’t fumbled the 2024 election by allowing Biden to run again and then drop out when it was too late for a primary, they would have won.

+1000

I'd say "insanely popular" with 30% to 35% of the country with another 10% to 15% of country willing to vote for him in specific circumstances. This is a level of popularity that gave him a chance of winning against weak competition as we witnessed in 2024 and would have him destroyed against strong competition.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It’ll be Josh Shapiro. It’s really obvious, to me.

He is Jewish and cannot win.

Stop your racism, you bigot.