2022 Senate Map

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:As someone who is a team Obama alum and has worked prior campaigns in pa and does some campaign consulting now and then —

There are seven senate races in 2022 where the 2020 potus election was within 2 pts

Before omicron, I thought Dems would hold the tiebreak after sununu declined to run.

I had d’s flippin pa and r’s flippin ga. Everything else holding.

Now….my median forecast is r +2

PA holds R, and R’s flip GA, NV….and run it way too close in az.

Really? You think that Dr. Oz can beat Fetterman? Fetterman is hugely popular and not just in Western PA. I don't think a TV personality with no public office history is going to unseat a popular Lt Governor. And I think Dr. Oz has a better chance than anyone else in the race because he has more face and name recognition. Dr. Oz will win with a lot of people who don't pay attention to politics. It's still too early and too close to call, but Politico had this from early December:

https://www.politico.com/newsletters/playbook-pm/2021/12/09/scoop-oz-polls-strong-in-pa-senate-race-495407

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK:
Our PA politics expert Holly Otterbein writes in: MEHMET OZ’s opponents are starting to survey his standing in the campaign for Senate in Pennsylvania. Data for Progress, the pollster for Democratic Lt. Gov. JOHN FETTERMAN, tested a general-election matchup between the two candidates from Dec. 3-5. Fetterman narrowly leads Oz 44-42 among likely voters, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

Fetterman is ahead among independents, women, college-educated voters and the under-45 set. Oz is winning men, white voters, those without a college degree and voters 45 and up. Data for Progress said it did not test a head-to-head between Oz and Rep. CONOR LAMB, Fetterman’s top opponent in the primary. The full memo is here

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:As someone who is a team Obama alum and has worked prior campaigns in pa and does some campaign consulting now and then —

There are seven senate races in 2022 where the 2020 potus election was within 2 pts

Before omicron, I thought Dems would hold the tiebreak after sununu declined to run.

I had d’s flippin pa and r’s flippin ga. Everything else holding.

Now….my median forecast is r +2

PA holds R, and R’s flip GA, NV….and run it way too close in az.

Really? You think that Dr. Oz can beat Fetterman? Fetterman is hugely popular and not just in Western PA. I don't think a TV personality with no public office history is going to unseat a popular Lt Governor. And I think Dr. Oz has a better chance than anyone else in the race because he has more face and name recognition. Dr. Oz will win with a lot of people who don't pay attention to politics. It's still too early and too close to call, but Politico had this from early December:

https://www.politico.com/newsletters/playbook-pm/2021/12/09/scoop-oz-polls-strong-in-pa-senate-race-495407

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK:
Our PA politics expert Holly Otterbein writes in: MEHMET OZ’s opponents are starting to survey his standing in the campaign for Senate in Pennsylvania. Data for Progress, the pollster for Democratic Lt. Gov. JOHN FETTERMAN, tested a general-election matchup between the two candidates from Dec. 3-5. Fetterman narrowly leads Oz 44-42 among likely voters, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

Fetterman is ahead among independents, women, college-educated voters and the under-45 set. Oz is winning men, white voters, those without a college degree and voters 45 and up. Data for Progress said it did not test a head-to-head between Oz and Rep. CONOR LAMB, Fetterman’s top opponent in the primary. The full memo is here

Hoping Jawn pummels the carpetbagging snake oil salesman. Not physically but figuratively.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:As someone who is a team Obama alum and has worked prior campaigns in pa and does some campaign consulting now and then —

There are seven senate races in 2022 where the 2020 potus election was within 2 pts

Before omicron, I thought Dems would hold the tiebreak after sununu declined to run.

I had d’s flippin pa and r’s flippin ga. Everything else holding.

Now….my median forecast is r +2

PA holds R, and R’s flip GA, NV….and run it way too close in az.

Really? You think that Dr. Oz can beat Fetterman? Fetterman is hugely popular and not just in Western PA. I don't think a TV personality with no public office history is going to unseat a popular Lt Governor. And I think Dr. Oz has a better chance than anyone else in the race because he has more face and name recognition. Dr. Oz will win with a lot of people who don't pay attention to politics. It's still too early and too close to call, but Politico had this from early December:

https://www.politico.com/newsletters/playbook-pm/2021/12/09/scoop-oz-polls-strong-in-pa-senate-race-495407

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK:
Our PA politics expert Holly Otterbein writes in: MEHMET OZ’s opponents are starting to survey his standing in the campaign for Senate in Pennsylvania. Data for Progress, the pollster for Democratic Lt. Gov. JOHN FETTERMAN, tested a general-election matchup between the two candidates from Dec. 3-5. Fetterman narrowly leads Oz 44-42 among likely voters, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

Fetterman is ahead among independents, women, college-educated voters and the under-45 set. Oz is winning men, white voters, those without a college degree and voters 45 and up. Data for Progress said it did not test a head-to-head between Oz and Rep. CONOR LAMB, Fetterman’s top opponent in the primary. The full memo is here

McCormick will win the R primary. McCormick will be very formidable.

A lot has to change between now and Election Day for Dems.

Fetterman is a good fit for the state but things have materially changed in Pa on the ground over the last 4 weeks

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:As someone who is a team Obama alum and has worked prior campaigns in pa and does some campaign consulting now and then —

There are seven senate races in 2022 where the 2020 potus election was within 2 pts

Before omicron, I thought Dems would hold the tiebreak after sununu declined to run.

I had d’s flippin pa and r’s flippin ga. Everything else holding.

Now….my median forecast is r +2

PA holds R, and R’s flip GA, NV….and run it way too close in az.

Really? You think that Dr. Oz can beat Fetterman? Fetterman is hugely popular and not just in Western PA. I don't think a TV personality with no public office history is going to unseat a popular Lt Governor. And I think Dr. Oz has a better chance than anyone else in the race because he has more face and name recognition. Dr. Oz will win with a lot of people who don't pay attention to politics. It's still too early and too close to call, but Politico had this from early December:

https://www.politico.com/newsletters/playbook-pm/2021/12/09/scoop-oz-polls-strong-in-pa-senate-race-495407

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK:
Our PA politics expert Holly Otterbein writes in: MEHMET OZ’s opponents are starting to survey his standing in the campaign for Senate in Pennsylvania. Data for Progress, the pollster for Democratic Lt. Gov. JOHN FETTERMAN, tested a general-election matchup between the two candidates from Dec. 3-5. Fetterman narrowly leads Oz 44-42 among likely voters, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

Fetterman is ahead among independents, women, college-educated voters and the under-45 set. Oz is winning men, white voters, those without a college degree and voters 45 and up. Data for Progress said it did not test a head-to-head between Oz and Rep. CONOR LAMB, Fetterman’s top opponent in the primary. The full memo is here

Laugh at Oz at your peril. Fetter man will never be as popular as a TV star.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Will be interesting to see if Hogan runs against Van Hollen. This would be the year to get rid of a democrat hegemony in MD

If Hogan were running he’d be running already. And he wouldn’t win because Maryland knows better than to elect somewhat acceptable local Republicans when control of the House or Senate is on the line. Just ask Connie Morella if you don’t believe me.

PP back again, I maintain that this isn’t happening but here’s somewhat of an update:

[Anonymous]

Hogan doesn’t seem like he would play well with Mitch.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Hogan doesn’t seem like he would play well with Mitch.

Agree. But, the question is: where would he caucus? Doubt it would be with Chuckie.

[Anonymous]

I don't see the reasoning for Hogan staying out of the Senate race. He's not that old. He's pretty popular in MD across the political spectrum. This should be a no-brainer decision for him.

I'm guessing he might have unpublicized health issues/cancer reemergence and that's giving him pause. If that's the case, then it's better to spend out the rest of your years with your family instead of commuting to Capitol Hill.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I don't see the reasoning for Hogan staying out of the Senate race. He's not that old. He's pretty popular in MD across the political spectrum. This should be a no-brainer decision for him.

I'm guessing he might have unpublicized health issues/cancer reemergence and that's giving him pause. If that's the case, then it's better to spend out the rest of your years with your family instead of commuting to Capitol Hill.

He might have presidential ambitions and a term in the Senate being browbeaten and cowed by McConnell probably isn't going to help his credentials.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I don't see the reasoning for Hogan staying out of the Senate race. He's not that old. He's pretty popular in MD across the political spectrum. This should be a no-brainer decision for him.

I'm guessing he might have unpublicized health issues/cancer reemergence and that's giving him pause. If that's the case, then it's better to spend out the rest of your years with your family instead of commuting to Capitol Hill.

What does he get out of it though? If he wants to be president, it will be awful for him. He’s going to be forced to take lots of MAGA positions or become a pariah of the MAGAs as another Mitt.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I don't see the reasoning for Hogan staying out of the Senate race. He's not that old. He's pretty popular in MD across the political spectrum. This should be a no-brainer decision for him.

I'm guessing he might have unpublicized health issues/cancer reemergence and that's giving him pause. If that's the case, then it's better to spend out the rest of your years with your family instead of commuting to Capitol Hill.

What does he get out of it though? If he wants to be president, it will be awful for him. He’s going to be forced to take lots of MAGA positions or become a pariah of the MAGAs as another Mitt.

+1 And all former Governors who are Senators were happier as Governors.

[Anonymous]

Van Hollen has no name recognition in MD. Biden's low approval numbers will sink him and if turnout is low.

I think Hogan would be a very competitive race. Especially if voters are looking to punish the democrats in Nov.

[Anonymous]

Stacey Abrams has registered a million voters for this cycle. I think that should bode well for Warnock as well. Does anyone actually think wacky Herschel Walker has a chance?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Stacey Abrams has registered a million voters for this cycle. I think that should bode well for Warnock as well. Does anyone actually think wacky Herschel Walker has a chance?

Georgia Democrats flipped 41 state legislature seats in 21 counties in Georgia last time around. Democrats in the rest of the country should be taking out their notepads and paying close attention to Abrams.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I don't see the reasoning for Hogan staying out of the Senate race. He's not that old. He's pretty popular in MD across the political spectrum. This should be a no-brainer decision for him.

I'm guessing he might have unpublicized health issues/cancer reemergence and that's giving him pause. If that's the case, then it's better to spend out the rest of your years with your family instead of commuting to Capitol Hill.

He might have presidential ambitions and a term in the Senate being browbeaten and cowed by McConnell probably isn't going to help his credentials.

He might have ambitions, but unless Trumpism dies, he doesn't stand a chance.