US coronavirus cases top 10,000 and on the same or worse curve than Italy

[Anonymous]

Maybe we are just more honest and are better collecting data. Anyhow we’ll see but even our line is starting to curve flat to down. Hopefully it will slowdown before all the banks fail. If not we’ll have a real sh$9 show to deal with.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Maybe we are just more honest and are better collecting data. Anyhow we’ll see but even our line is starting to curve flat to down. Hopefully it will slowdown before all the banks fail. If not we’ll have a real sh$9 show to deal with.

It's the height of arrogance to think that the US is the only country that is honest. And our testing rate is not that rigorous.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Maybe we are just more honest and are better collecting data. Anyhow we’ll see but even our line is starting to curve flat to down. Hopefully it will slowdown before all the banks fail. If not we’ll have a real sh$9 show to deal with.

We added 22,000 new cases. Unfortunately that was due to the testing has plateaued. We are still not testing enough.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Maybe we are just more honest and are better collecting data. Anyhow we’ll see but even our line is starting to curve flat to down. Hopefully it will slowdown before all the banks fail. If not we’ll have a real sh$9 show to deal with.

It's the height of arrogance to think that the US is the only country that is honest. And our testing rate is not that rigorous.

That chart is over three weeks old. Get real.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Maybe we are just more honest and are better collecting data. Anyhow we’ll see but even our line is starting to curve flat to down. Hopefully it will slowdown before all the banks fail. If not we’ll have a real sh$9 show to deal with.

It's the height of arrogance to think that the US is the only country that is honest. And our testing rate is not that rigorous.

I believe PP was referencing a specific country. Ahem.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:For many reasons, Italy is not a good comp.

We won't have as high a percentage of deaths, but there is a good chance we will have the highest percentage of sick people in the world and that our hospitals will be overwhelmed.

Based on?

Extrapolating out the exponential curve out a week or two. We are where Italy was a week ago and have a higher growth rate.

On Tuesday, based on a 30% growth rate, I predicted we would have 10,000 cases by today. Well we have more like a 45% growth rate which gave us 20,000 cases today.

Thanks. I don’t even think number of cases is really a useful metric at this juncture. The numbers are all over the place because people have simply stopped testing or are only testing those with the worst symptoms. None of these are apples to apples comparisons. On the whole, I say we fare better than Italy.

Well, we have several datasets that include testing all or almost all of those who were exposed. One is from the Diamond Princess and one is from South Korean. Both suggest a death rate around 1%. We can also use the Diamond Princess to estimate a maximum number likely to be infected. About 20% of the people on the Diamond Princess were infected. 20% of the US population is around 65 million. One per cent of that is 650,000 deaths. This is what has everybody freaking out. If you play around with my numbers to account for various uncertainties, you still get a large number of deaths, and worst epidemic since the Spanish Flu. Also, about 20% of people have a severe case than penetrates into the lungs. Most of those people survive, but a significant number will develop scarred lungs, which will impair their health for the rest of their lives. This isn't talked about so much, but it also is causing experts to freak out.

If your brain has trouble absorbing this, just understand that epidemiologist make these estimates for a living and most of them are freaking out.

You are wrong. In three months this will look like one of the biggest hype jobs ever. Do more research.

I can always be wrong, but I provided my research and analysis to you, and all you did was say, "you are wrong, do more research." Umm, no. You do your own research and analysis. Well see who is right in a few months. But I'm pretty sure I'm right because it's just math now. Hell, I'll tell you how many dead people we'll have in two weeks. About 6,000. Don't believe me now. But if I'm right, will you believe you might, just might, be wrong.

Lol. Bookmarked.

“LOL” because people dying is just a joke to Trumpsters.

The overreaction is a bit humorous. This mayyyyyy end up being a slight uptick in deaths from a normal flu season. 99% of the deaths in Italy are from patients with one or multiple comorbidities. Many deaths from those are actually being attributed to CV. There is a difference between dying with CV and dying because of CV. I guess we shall see when it all shakes out.

Not a trumpster btw

I didn't base my estimate on anything to do with Italy. I based it on an exponential growth formula. Deaths have been growing by an average of about 25% a day for the last two weeks. That means deaths are quintupling every 7 days. On March 13, we had 49 total deaths. March 20 we had 256. So if the trend continues, we will have 1,250 dead by March 27 and 6,250 by April 3. It's really simple math, but it's counter intuitive because we tend to think linearly rather than exponentially. So unless something intervenes, the trend will continue.

The PP was from March 21. Math is always right. We have 5102 deaths as of this evening. We might be hitting PP's prediction a day earlier.

USA 215,003 +26,473 5,102 +1,049 (Last updated: April 02, 2020, 00:44 GMT)

[Anonymous]

April 1st was the first day with 1,000 deaths. Not good.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:For many reasons, Italy is not a good comp.

We won't have as high a percentage of deaths, but there is a good chance we will have the highest percentage of sick people in the world and that our hospitals will be overwhelmed.

Based on?

Extrapolating out the exponential curve out a week or two. We are where Italy was a week ago and have a higher growth rate.

On Tuesday, based on a 30% growth rate, I predicted we would have 10,000 cases by today. Well we have more like a 45% growth rate which gave us 20,000 cases today.

Thanks. I don’t even think number of cases is really a useful metric at this juncture. The numbers are all over the place because people have simply stopped testing or are only testing those with the worst symptoms. None of these are apples to apples comparisons. On the whole, I say we fare better than Italy.

Well, we have several datasets that include testing all or almost all of those who were exposed. One is from the Diamond Princess and one is from South Korean. Both suggest a death rate around 1%. We can also use the Diamond Princess to estimate a maximum number likely to be infected. About 20% of the people on the Diamond Princess were infected. 20% of the US population is around 65 million. One per cent of that is 650,000 deaths. This is what has everybody freaking out. If you play around with my numbers to account for various uncertainties, you still get a large number of deaths, and worst epidemic since the Spanish Flu. Also, about 20% of people have a severe case than penetrates into the lungs. Most of those people survive, but a significant number will develop scarred lungs, which will impair their health for the rest of their lives. This isn't talked about so much, but it also is causing experts to freak out.

If your brain has trouble absorbing this, just understand that epidemiologist make these estimates for a living and most of them are freaking out.

You are wrong. In three months this will look like one of the biggest hype jobs ever. Do more research.

I can always be wrong, but I provided my research and analysis to you, and all you did was say, "you are wrong, do more research." Umm, no. You do your own research and analysis. Well see who is right in a few months. But I'm pretty sure I'm right because it's just math now. Hell, I'll tell you how many dead people we'll have in two weeks. About 6,000. Don't believe me now. But if I'm right, will you believe you might, just might, be wrong.

Lol. Bookmarked.

“LOL” because people dying is just a joke to Trumpsters.

The overreaction is a bit humorous. This mayyyyyy end up being a slight uptick in deaths from a normal flu season. 99% of the deaths in Italy are from patients with one or multiple comorbidities. Many deaths from those are actually being attributed to CV. There is a difference between dying with CV and dying because of CV. I guess we shall see when it all shakes out.

Not a trumpster btw

I didn't base my estimate on anything to do with Italy. I based it on an exponential growth formula. Deaths have been growing by an average of about 25% a day for the last two weeks. That means deaths are quintupling every 7 days. On March 13, we had 49 total deaths. March 20 we had 256. So if the trend continues, we will have 1,250 dead by March 27 and 6,250 by April 3. It's really simple math, but it's counter intuitive because we tend to think linearly rather than exponentially. So unless something intervenes, the trend will continue.

The PP was from March 21. Math is always right. We have 5102 deaths as of this evening. We might be hitting PP's prediction a day earlier.

USA 215,003 +26,473 5,102 +1,049 (Last updated: April 02, 2020, 00:44 GMT)

There is a lot of white noise in these death tallies. If you dig into it, they are taking great liberties with what counts as a CV death.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:For many reasons, Italy is not a good comp.

We won't have as high a percentage of deaths, but there is a good chance we will have the highest percentage of sick people in the world and that our hospitals will be overwhelmed.

Based on?

Extrapolating out the exponential curve out a week or two. We are where Italy was a week ago and have a higher growth rate.

On Tuesday, based on a 30% growth rate, I predicted we would have 10,000 cases by today. Well we have more like a 45% growth rate which gave us 20,000 cases today.

Thanks. I don’t even think number of cases is really a useful metric at this juncture. The numbers are all over the place because people have simply stopped testing or are only testing those with the worst symptoms. None of these are apples to apples comparisons. On the whole, I say we fare better than Italy.

Well, we have several datasets that include testing all or almost all of those who were exposed. One is from the Diamond Princess and one is from South Korean. Both suggest a death rate around 1%. We can also use the Diamond Princess to estimate a maximum number likely to be infected. About 20% of the people on the Diamond Princess were infected. 20% of the US population is around 65 million. One per cent of that is 650,000 deaths. This is what has everybody freaking out. If you play around with my numbers to account for various uncertainties, you still get a large number of deaths, and worst epidemic since the Spanish Flu. Also, about 20% of people have a severe case than penetrates into the lungs. Most of those people survive, but a significant number will develop scarred lungs, which will impair their health for the rest of their lives. This isn't talked about so much, but it also is causing experts to freak out.

If your brain has trouble absorbing this, just understand that epidemiologist make these estimates for a living and most of them are freaking out.

You are wrong. In three months this will look like one of the biggest hype jobs ever. Do more research.

I can always be wrong, but I provided my research and analysis to you, and all you did was say, "you are wrong, do more research." Umm, no. You do your own research and analysis. Well see who is right in a few months. But I'm pretty sure I'm right because it's just math now. Hell, I'll tell you how many dead people we'll have in two weeks. About 6,000. Don't believe me now. But if I'm right, will you believe you might, just might, be wrong.

Lol. Bookmarked.

“LOL” because people dying is just a joke to Trumpsters.

The overreaction is a bit humorous. This mayyyyyy end up being a slight uptick in deaths from a normal flu season. 99% of the deaths in Italy are from patients with one or multiple comorbidities. Many deaths from those are actually being attributed to CV. There is a difference between dying with CV and dying because of CV. I guess we shall see when it all shakes out.

Not a trumpster btw

I didn't base my estimate on anything to do with Italy. I based it on an exponential growth formula. Deaths have been growing by an average of about 25% a day for the last two weeks. That means deaths are quintupling every 7 days. On March 13, we had 49 total deaths. March 20 we had 256. So if the trend continues, we will have 1,250 dead by March 27 and 6,250 by April 3. It's really simple math, but it's counter intuitive because we tend to think linearly rather than exponentially. So unless something intervenes, the trend will continue.

The PP was from March 21. Math is always right. We have 5102 deaths as of this evening. We might be hitting PP's prediction a day earlier.

USA 215,003 +26,473 5,102 +1,049 (Last updated: April 02, 2020, 00:44 GMT)

There is a lot of white noise in these death tallies. If you dig into it, they are taking great liberties with what counts as a CV death.

So *that’s* the new talking point? They SAY a 1000 people died of it, but who knows, really?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:For many reasons, Italy is not a good comp.

We won't have as high a percentage of deaths, but there is a good chance we will have the highest percentage of sick people in the world and that our hospitals will be overwhelmed.

Based on?

Extrapolating out the exponential curve out a week or two. We are where Italy was a week ago and have a higher growth rate.

On Tuesday, based on a 30% growth rate, I predicted we would have 10,000 cases by today. Well we have more like a 45% growth rate which gave us 20,000 cases today.

Thanks. I don’t even think number of cases is really a useful metric at this juncture. The numbers are all over the place because people have simply stopped testing or are only testing those with the worst symptoms. None of these are apples to apples comparisons. On the whole, I say we fare better than Italy.

Well, we have several datasets that include testing all or almost all of those who were exposed. One is from the Diamond Princess and one is from South Korean. Both suggest a death rate around 1%. We can also use the Diamond Princess to estimate a maximum number likely to be infected. About 20% of the people on the Diamond Princess were infected. 20% of the US population is around 65 million. One per cent of that is 650,000 deaths. This is what has everybody freaking out. If you play around with my numbers to account for various uncertainties, you still get a large number of deaths, and worst epidemic since the Spanish Flu. Also, about 20% of people have a severe case than penetrates into the lungs. Most of those people survive, but a significant number will develop scarred lungs, which will impair their health for the rest of their lives. This isn't talked about so much, but it also is causing experts to freak out.

If your brain has trouble absorbing this, just understand that epidemiologist make these estimates for a living and most of them are freaking out.

You are wrong. In three months this will look like one of the biggest hype jobs ever. Do more research.

I can always be wrong, but I provided my research and analysis to you, and all you did was say, "you are wrong, do more research." Umm, no. You do your own research and analysis. Well see who is right in a few months. But I'm pretty sure I'm right because it's just math now. Hell, I'll tell you how many dead people we'll have in two weeks. About 6,000. Don't believe me now. But if I'm right, will you believe you might, just might, be wrong.

Lol. Bookmarked.

“LOL” because people dying is just a joke to Trumpsters.

The overreaction is a bit humorous. This mayyyyyy end up being a slight uptick in deaths from a normal flu season. 99% of the deaths in Italy are from patients with one or multiple comorbidities. Many deaths from those are actually being attributed to CV. There is a difference between dying with CV and dying because of CV. I guess we shall see when it all shakes out.

Not a trumpster btw

I didn't base my estimate on anything to do with Italy. I based it on an exponential growth formula. Deaths have been growing by an average of about 25% a day for the last two weeks. That means deaths are quintupling every 7 days. On March 13, we had 49 total deaths. March 20 we had 256. So if the trend continues, we will have 1,250 dead by March 27 and 6,250 by April 3. It's really simple math, but it's counter intuitive because we tend to think linearly rather than exponentially. So unless something intervenes, the trend will continue.

The PP was from March 21. Math is always right. We have 5102 deaths as of this evening. We might be hitting PP's prediction a day earlier.

USA 215,003 +26,473 5,102 +1,049 (Last updated: April 02, 2020, 00:44 GMT)

There is a lot of white noise in these death tallies. If you dig into it, they are taking great liberties with what counts as a CV death.

So *that’s* the new talking point? They SAY a 1000 people died of it, but who knows, really?

Lol it’s funny. What’s next, Republicans will say the people filling hospitals all have the swine flu?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:For many reasons, Italy is not a good comp.

We won't have as high a percentage of deaths, but there is a good chance we will have the highest percentage of sick people in the world and that our hospitals will be overwhelmed.

Based on?

Extrapolating out the exponential curve out a week or two. We are where Italy was a week ago and have a higher growth rate.

On Tuesday, based on a 30% growth rate, I predicted we would have 10,000 cases by today. Well we have more like a 45% growth rate which gave us 20,000 cases today.

Thanks. I don’t even think number of cases is really a useful metric at this juncture. The numbers are all over the place because people have simply stopped testing or are only testing those with the worst symptoms. None of these are apples to apples comparisons. On the whole, I say we fare better than Italy.

Well, we have several datasets that include testing all or almost all of those who were exposed. One is from the Diamond Princess and one is from South Korean. Both suggest a death rate around 1%. We can also use the Diamond Princess to estimate a maximum number likely to be infected. About 20% of the people on the Diamond Princess were infected. 20% of the US population is around 65 million. One per cent of that is 650,000 deaths. This is what has everybody freaking out. If you play around with my numbers to account for various uncertainties, you still get a large number of deaths, and worst epidemic since the Spanish Flu. Also, about 20% of people have a severe case than penetrates into the lungs. Most of those people survive, but a significant number will develop scarred lungs, which will impair their health for the rest of their lives. This isn't talked about so much, but it also is causing experts to freak out.

If your brain has trouble absorbing this, just understand that epidemiologist make these estimates for a living and most of them are freaking out.

You are wrong. In three months this will look like one of the biggest hype jobs ever. Do more research.

I can always be wrong, but I provided my research and analysis to you, and all you did was say, "you are wrong, do more research." Umm, no. You do your own research and analysis. Well see who is right in a few months. But I'm pretty sure I'm right because it's just math now. Hell, I'll tell you how many dead people we'll have in two weeks. About 6,000. Don't believe me now. But if I'm right, will you believe you might, just might, be wrong.

Lol. Bookmarked.

“LOL” because people dying is just a joke to Trumpsters.

The overreaction is a bit humorous. This mayyyyyy end up being a slight uptick in deaths from a normal flu season. 99% of the deaths in Italy are from patients with one or multiple comorbidities. Many deaths from those are actually being attributed to CV. There is a difference between dying with CV and dying because of CV. I guess we shall see when it all shakes out.

Not a trumpster btw

I didn't base my estimate on anything to do with Italy. I based it on an exponential growth formula. Deaths have been growing by an average of about 25% a day for the last two weeks. That means deaths are quintupling every 7 days. On March 13, we had 49 total deaths. March 20 we had 256. So if the trend continues, we will have 1,250 dead by March 27 and 6,250 by April 3. It's really simple math, but it's counter intuitive because we tend to think linearly rather than exponentially. So unless something intervenes, the trend will continue.

The PP was from March 21. Math is always right. We have 5102 deaths as of this evening. We might be hitting PP's prediction a day earlier.

USA 215,003 +26,473 5,102 +1,049 (Last updated: April 02, 2020, 00:44 GMT)

There is a lot of white noise in these death tallies. If you dig into it, they are taking great liberties with what counts as a CV death.

Do you have sources for this assertion? I have had similar thoughts with the counting.

[Anonymous]

STOP OVERQUOTING
It's impossible to read

[Anonymous]

There is a lot of white noise in these death tallies. If you dig into it, they are taking great liberties with what counts as a CV death.

So *that’s* the new talking point? They SAY a 1000 people died of it, but who knows, really?

Yes, that’s the new taking point.

“White noise” PP, remember the flu death totals Trump used to cite when he was comparing Covid-19 to the flu? Those flu death totals Trump used to cite were from the CDC, and the CDC calculated them the same way New York is counting and totaling its Covid-19 deaths.

[Anonymous]

What is the theory behind so many Italians having this? We need data and fast.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:For many reasons, Italy is not a good comp.

We won't have as high a percentage of deaths, but there is a good chance we will have the highest percentage of sick people in the world and that our hospitals will be overwhelmed.

Based on?

Extrapolating out the exponential curve out a week or two. We are where Italy was a week ago and have a higher growth rate.

On Tuesday, based on a 30% growth rate, I predicted we would have 10,000 cases by today. Well we have more like a 45% growth rate which gave us 20,000 cases today.

Thanks. I don’t even think number of cases is really a useful metric at this juncture. The numbers are all over the place because people have simply stopped testing or are only testing those with the worst symptoms. None of these are apples to apples comparisons. On the whole, I say we fare better than Italy.

Well, we have several datasets that include testing all or almost all of those who were exposed. One is from the Diamond Princess and one is from South Korean. Both suggest a death rate around 1%. We can also use the Diamond Princess to estimate a maximum number likely to be infected. About 20% of the people on the Diamond Princess were infected. 20% of the US population is around 65 million. One per cent of that is 650,000 deaths. This is what has everybody freaking out. If you play around with my numbers to account for various uncertainties, you still get a large number of deaths, and worst epidemic since the Spanish Flu. Also, about 20% of people have a severe case than penetrates into the lungs. Most of those people survive, but a significant number will develop scarred lungs, which will impair their health for the rest of their lives. This isn't talked about so much, but it also is causing experts to freak out.

If your brain has trouble absorbing this, just understand that epidemiologist make these estimates for a living and most of them are freaking out.

You are wrong. In three months this will look like one of the biggest hype jobs ever. Do more research.

I can always be wrong, but I provided my research and analysis to you, and all you did was say, "you are wrong, do more research." Umm, no. You do your own research and analysis. Well see who is right in a few months. But I'm pretty sure I'm right because it's just math now. Hell, I'll tell you how many dead people we'll have in two weeks. About 6,000. Don't believe me now. But if I'm right, will you believe you might, just might, be wrong.

Lol. Bookmarked.

“LOL” because people dying is just a joke to Trumpsters.

The overreaction is a bit humorous. This mayyyyyy end up being a slight uptick in deaths from a normal flu season. 99% of the deaths in Italy are from patients with one or multiple comorbidities. Many deaths from those are actually being attributed to CV. There is a difference between dying with CV and dying because of CV. I guess we shall see when it all shakes out.

Not a trumpster btw

I didn't base my estimate on anything to do with Italy. I based it on an exponential growth formula. Deaths have been growing by an average of about 25% a day for the last two weeks. That means deaths are quintupling every 7 days. On March 13, we had 49 total deaths. March 20 we had 256. So if the trend continues, we will have 1,250 dead by March 27 and 6,250 by April 3. It's really simple math, but it's counter intuitive because we tend to think linearly rather than exponentially. So unless something intervenes, the trend will continue.

The PP was from March 21. Math is always right. We have 5102 deaths as of this evening. We might be hitting PP's prediction a day earlier.

USA 215,003 +26,473 5,102 +1,049 (Last updated: April 02, 2020, 00:44 GMT)

There is a lot of white noise in these death tallies. If you dig into it, they are taking great liberties with what counts as a CV death.

So *that’s* the new talking point? They SAY a 1000 people died of it, but who knows, really?

Lol it’s funny. What’s next, Republicans will say the people filling hospitals all have the swine flu?

Dick, there’s no way around it. Somehow, you’ve contracted.. Lung Fever!