VA: First COVID-19 Case Confirmed

[Anonymous]

John Hopkins data analyzed by a Norwegian post-doc.
https://twitter.com/AndersElowsson/status/1236435452867031040?s=20

Doubling time=2.6 days.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I’m just trying to wrap my head around the DMV being doomed to 200,000 cases in less than 60 days, when we haven’t even seen that number GLOBALLY in 3-4 months.

Are you paying attention to how other countries are stopping the spread? We aren't doing that.

It's hard for people to understand these types of increases. To understand how we could have 200k when the whole world doesn't have it, let's start at the first infection and do world-wide numbers.

day 0 - 1 case - when the virus jumps from an animal and infects a human. This is sometime at the start of November of 2019.
day 6 - 2 cases
12 - 4 cases
18 - 8 cases
24 - 16 cases
30 - 32 cases
36 - 64 cases
42 - 128 cases - In December when the virus is discovered and the RNA is distributed to the world.
48 - 256 cases
54 - 512 cases
60 - 1024 cases - this is the start of January when local government in Wuhan is attempting a coverup.
66 - 2048
72 - 4096
78 - 8192 -
84 - 16384
90 - 32768
96 - 65536
102 - 131072
108 - 262144

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:This is what exponential growth means.

One week ago there were 0 cases.

3 then 5 then 9 then 17 then 30 now 41.

And this is with the bare minimum of testing. Please explain this to all the people who you know that refuse to stay home and flatten the curve.

Math is not your strong suit.

+1
200 cases today (safe to eat out)
6 days - 400 cases (safe to eat out)
12 days - 800 cases (safe to eat out$
18 days - 1600 cases (safe to eat out)
24 days - 3200 cases (safe to eat out)
30 days - 6400 cases (safe to eat out)
36 days - 12800 cases (safe to eat out)
42 days - 25600 cases (safe to eat out but not go to Costco)
48 days - 51200 cases (safe for carry out only go to stores for necessities)
54 days - 102400 cases (safe to get food delivered and left on porch)
60 days - 204800 cases (make all food at home)

We are good to get food out for at least two more months. Even if you want to be conservative and stop early, we have at least six weeks before there is much chance of running into sick individuals. I’m not worried at all right now.

Is this just your own projection?

[Anonymous]

The Johns Hopkins/Bloomberg/Gates thing is sketch

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I’m just trying to wrap my head around the DMV being doomed to 200,000 cases in less than 60 days, when we haven’t even seen that number GLOBALLY in 3-4 months.

Are you paying attention to how other countries are stopping the spread? We aren't doing that.

It's hard for people to understand these types of increases. To understand how we could have 200k when the whole world doesn't have it, let's start at the first infection and do world-wide numbers.

day 0 - 1 case - when the virus jumps from an animal and infects a human. This is sometime at the start of November of 2019.
day 6 - 2 cases
12 - 4 cases
18 - 8 cases
24 - 16 cases
30 - 32 cases
36 - 64 cases
42 - 128 cases - In December when the virus is discovered and the RNA is distributed to the world.
48 - 256 cases
54 - 512 cases
60 - 1024 cases - this is the start of January when local government in Wuhan is attempting a coverup.
66 - 2048
72 - 4096
78 - 8192 -
84 - 16384
90 - 32768
96 - 65536
102 - 131072
108 - 262144

??

But the doubling time is more like 2-3 days, not 6.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:
+1
200 cases today (safe to eat out)
6 days - 400 cases (safe to eat out)
12 days - 800 cases (safe to eat out$
18 days - 1600 cases (safe to eat out)
24 days - 3200 cases (safe to eat out)
30 days - 6400 cases (safe to eat out)
36 days - 12800 cases (safe to eat out)
42 days - 25600 cases (safe to eat out but not go to Costco)
48 days - 51200 cases (safe for carry out only go to stores for necessities)
54 days - 102400 cases (safe to get food delivered and left on porch)
60 days - 204800 cases (make all food at home)

We are good to get food out for at least two more months. Even if you want to be conservative and stop early, we have at least six weeks before there is much chance of running into sick individuals. I’m not worried at all right now.

Why are you saying the doubling time is 6 days? I've seen it 3 days, or 2 1/2. The doubling rate of positive tests has been controlled by access to testing, and doesn't represent actual spread.
Why are you saying that 40 positive tests represents 200 actual cases out there? With a 2 1/2 or 3 day doubling time, I think the actual number today is much more than that.
So, just to humor me, try again that whole calculation, with 4000 instead of 200, and a 3 day doubling time.
today 4000
3 days 8000
6 days 16000
9 days 32000
12 days 64000
15 days 128000
18 days 256000
21 days 512000

Yeah.

Everything I’ve seen has been six days. If it’s three days then that’s much more alarming but still we are at the start. We would have a couple weeks instead of six weeks. I would be interested in where you are seeing it doubles every three days. We have to be careful jumping the gun and sounding alarmist early because then when it doesn’t materialize no one will believe it’s actually going to be a risk a few weeks later.

It's closer to 2-3 days. And we aren't at the start. Stay home FFS.

[Anonymous]

What do we know about the VA cases in terms of transmission? Has there been community spread like in other states or are the Fairfax cases linked to specific individuals who traveled or caught it elsewhere?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:What do we know about the VA cases in terms of transmission? Has there been community spread like in other states or are the Fairfax cases linked to specific individuals who traveled or caught it elsewhere?

Sorry, just found the fairfax site saying no evidence of community spread. I know that’s questionable given the lack of testing but just looking for a little bit of hope to cling to as we lockdown for the week.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:What do we know about the VA cases in terms of transmission? Has there been community spread like in other states or are the Fairfax cases linked to specific individuals who traveled or caught it elsewhere?

Sorry, just found the fairfax site saying no evidence of community spread. I know that’s questionable given the lack of testing but just looking for a little bit of hope to cling to as we lockdown for the week.

The James City patient who died got it from unknown source. It won’t be long before make a change on their website.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:What do we know about the VA cases in terms of transmission? Has there been community spread like in other states or are the Fairfax cases linked to specific individuals who traveled or caught it elsewhere?

Sorry, just found the fairfax site saying no evidence of community spread. I know that’s questionable given the lack of testing but just looking for a little bit of hope to cling to as we lockdown for the week.

They seem to be saying no community transmission in Fairfax. There is already community transmission in DC and Maryland.

[Anonymous]

The third Loudoun case is community transmission.

[Anonymous]

I think the second ALEXANDRIA case is community transmission too.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I think the second ALEXANDRIA case is community transmission too.

No, they got it at the conference. I think.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I think the second ALEXANDRIA case is community transmission too.

It was not - they got it at a conference from an attendee who later tested positive.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:What do we know about the VA cases in terms of transmission? Has there been community spread like in other states or are the Fairfax cases linked to specific individuals who traveled or caught it elsewhere?

What I heard was all were traced to specifics, i.e. travel or close contact with someone positive.