By the numbers: A dispassioned evaluation of Hardy (compared to Deal and Wilson)

[Anonymous]

This assumes (and I hope the assumption is correct) that Hardy, like the feeders, will not just expand. I think that assumption must be correct because the greatest thing Hardy has to offer vs Deal is a small school.

But to all you wonderful economists out there - just remember that while parents can behave somewhat less rationally than economists would predict when it comes to their progeny, almost nothing DCPS does makes economic sense, and DCPS can do a lot of damage if it decides to - just look at the the recent (under Kaya) attempt to destroy SWW, budget cuts at Wilson, expensive renovations for empty high schools.

And the most logical economic action the DME could have taken but did not - abolish the automatic feeder rights for OOB kids that Michelle Rhee established in 2009. Pre-2009, if you were OOB and got into an ES, you had to play the lottery again for MS and again for HS. Her legacy is what created the overcrowding at Deal and Wilson, and the DME's cowardice is what continued it.

One question: does anyone think the 20% OOB requirement for "at risk" kids (if it is ever implemented) could change/destroy any of these equations or predictions, especially at schools that are small like Hardy?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:You heard it here first. The uniforms will soon be a thing of the past -- a concession to IB feeder parents who are considering their options.

OP here.

(I'm waiting on a flight and have some time to kill.)

Someone asked about Hardy FARMS last year. You will see the number below. I will also re-post my predictions about Hardy's demographics (in the spirit of a prediction that uniforms will be a thing of the past).

THESE ARE PREDICTIONS:
The IB percentage is 15% for the current year (up from 13%).
The percent White has increased: 13% White (up from 11%).
The percent Asian has increased: 10% Asian (up from 8%).
The percent African-American has fallen: 60% (down from 64%).
The percent Latino is about the same: 14% (it was 14% last year).
FARMS has decreased by 20%: it is now 45% (down from 55%).

Finally, a bonus prediction: within year or two we will all of think of Stoddert in the same way people think of Janney now (for better or worse). Based on test scores, it will be the highest-performing DCPS ES.

OP,

Since Stoddert feeds into Hardy - correct? - this would surely be for better?

And since Mann was technically the highest performing school last year I assume you are no longer talking about proficient but about advanced?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I am the PP who argued in favor of prisoners' dilemma for the Hardy 5th/6th grade transition.

(For the record, I have not made any posts about BASIS or OP's nationality.)

I wanted to raise something before, but did not want to derail the thread. No fear of that now, as it's already been done!

The main difference between the PD game and the stag hunt game is that PD has only one stable equilibrium (sell your friend out, sell your friend out), whereas stag hunt has at least two (cooperate, cooperate) and (do not cooperate, do not cooperate).

As I mentioned above, I think PD is more appropriate to Hardy, and I think our observations of reality back that up. Meaning, Hardy's very low IB percentage, 13% now and more or less persistent year after year, seems to indicate that (avoid Hardy, avoid Hardy) has been a stable equilibrium. Note: this can still change!

The idea I wanted to raise is that I think there is another place in DCPS where the stag hunt game is more applicable, and that is at PK in up and coming elementary schools.

Here, many high-SES people start at PK3 in ESs with very bad test scores in the upper grades. Each year they face the question, should I stay or should I go? Do I stay and cooperate to build this school into something better, or do I play the lottery for a charter or better DCPS?

I think for this PK graduation game, stag hunt may be appropriate. I think there are probably at least two stable (Nash) equilibria there, with one being (stay and cooperate, stay and cooperate). We are a little early to see if the observations of reality support this theory, and I have not thought very deeply about this, but this is my intuition at least.

first off, many who start in PK3 cannot do it in their IB school because there is not enough room - so the question is not if, but when should they leave. For example, IB Brent parents are lotterying into Van Ness this year, which, remembering that this is DCPS, may be entirely in trailers for a few years. Considering the value many people place on neighborhood schools when kids are small, I think you are starting too early. Also, considering how expensive the private preschool we went to now is we might have done this for our kids somewhere since we are public all the way - and we are Deal Wilson.

The real question is what was shown by the performance of the white kids at the ES schools where the DC CAS scores were terrible - that for ES, you can safely make that decision and not worry overmuch. I will never look at a parent again and think that they are sacrificing their kid on the altar of ideology at that level for the sake of learning other lessons about life etc.

But even there, you have a multitude of factors to take into account with these vested OOB feeder rights - you get into a Ward 3 school zoned for Wilson even if it feeds into Hardy, I think you go, and I think you play every year. Few will succeed, but you can see how hard everyone tries.

Thus far, there are very few charter schools that go all the way through that cater to the population you are talking about, and DCI sounds like a bit of a mess. So......

You have a good point, but parents think long term here, and when the long term prospects are no good, you try to jump whenever you are given the choice. For many right now that is Hardy.

My prediction is that the lottery pool for OOB at Hardy will change as the IB pool changes......... but it is still a lottery.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Op here.

Won't be 17% for the whole school. That's too big of a jump based on what we know.

I expect around 20% for the 6th grade class with 15% overall. That's for IB. I'm guessing feeder% for 6th is about 35% already.

As said earlier, the big jump will be in two years. Not only will the then-6th IB cohort be much larger (based upon my projections), but the then-8th grade will be aound 20% instead of 11%. Both will make the school average move quite a bit.

OP,
all IB parents who are Wilson bound need to see is the entry grade continue to shift each yeart.
But someone needs to crunch the numbers to see if ultimately this shift is possible given how many kids in these feeders are not Wilson bound and never will be. Now Hardy has Eaton, does it also have Stoddert?

BTW, there was more than one BASIS poster, and what you did there was beneath you. Conflating statistics from two different years, the first about FARMS, the second about race. You baited the poor woman, you Chechen! But it makes for an interesting case study. A school that was Title I when it scored second to the almighty Deal on the DC CAS deserves credit. But as an economist you might have considered the possibility that those DC CAS scores by BASIS in 2013 and 2014 with high FARMS populations are probably the only reason for the demographic shift in the third year. Which because of the pyramid model is composed entirely of 5th graders and thus is far more dramatic number wise than the shift will from OOB to IB will ever be at Hardy in any given year. For so many of us, this is about FARMS not race. But the reason it is an interesting case is it flipped in year 3 of existence - no doubt due to its scores.

The shift at Washington Latin (the other school in the top 3 DC CAS scores, also a charter, in terms of FARMS has been much more gradual.

For Hardy, it is about IB vs OOB. But you have to really understand the market to predict how and when it will flip.

OP,
It seems that you are predicting gradual change, no? Even for the now 4th graders?
But presumably the change will also affect who applies for the OOB lottery.
I do not think the wait list is long this year, and if the composition of the OOB applicants were to shift and increase significantly as well simultaneously, you might get a really dramatic change in terms of FARMS numbers and scores.
But I suppose it is possible that IB Hardy parents would not care so much about that, although I can't really see why...

what do you think about the potential for a simultaneous IB/OOB flip - there are so many people EOTP desperate for high quality middle schools..........

[Anonymous]

and this would also give them access to Wilson, which has been cut off for many I think.....

[Anonymous]

I swear, if half the energy spent discussing Hardy were redirected toward improving other DCPS middle schools, none of this would matter. People, IB Hardy parents choose private school for many reasons; quite frankly, they probably never even consider Hardy as a viable option. They need way more than theoretical arguments to get them to do otherwise. Some may shift, and that would be great, but the real way to do it is to stop being defensive about it. Deal managed with a combination of a charismatic leader and the economy. Other DCPS middle schools can do the same. But not if everyone spins their wheels talking about uniforms, SES, and whatever else someone did to make them upset. No way you will get more parents to choose Hardy if all you do is whine about how it's not given its due.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:You heard it here first. The uniforms will soon be a thing of the past -- a concession to IB feeder parents who are considering their options.

OP here.

(I'm waiting on a flight and have some time to kill.)

Someone asked about Hardy FARMS last year. You will see the number below. I will also re-post my predictions about Hardy's demographics (in the spirit of a prediction that uniforms will be a thing of the past).

THESE ARE PREDICTIONS:
The IB percentage is 15% for the current year (up from 13%).
The percent White has increased: 13% White (up from 11%).
The percent Asian has increased: 10% Asian (up from 8%).
The percent African-American has fallen: 60% (down from 64%).
The percent Latino is about the same: 14% (it was 14% last year).
FARMS has decreased by 20%: it is now 45% (down from 55%).

Finally, a bonus prediction: within year or two we will all of think of Stoddert in the same way people think of Janney now (for better or worse). Based on test scores, it will be the highest-performing DCPS ES.

OP,
Since Stoddert feeds into Hardy - correct? - this would surely be for better?
And since Mann was technically the highest performing school last year I assume you are no longer talking about proficient but about advanced?

Op here.

Not based on anything scientific. Just a feeling based on looking at numbers and trends.

Stoddert already fed into Hardy. The Hardy feeders at Mann, Key, Stoddert, Hyde and eventually Eaton. Mann and Key have always produced strong students. Stoddert probably has, too, but I don't think people can defensibly omit Stoddert in the discussions with Mann, Key and Janney.

I don't know much about Hyde, but a feeder basin for Hardy of Mann, Key and Stoddert is already really strong. The Stoddert inclusion is important since I expect it to be of comparable size to Janney.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I swear, if half the energy spent discussing Hardy were redirected toward improving other DCPS middle schools, none of this would matter. People, IB Hardy parents choose private school for many reasons; quite frankly, they probably never even consider Hardy as a viable option. They need way more than theoretical arguments to get them to do otherwise. Some may shift, and that would be great, but the real way to do it is to stop being defensive about it. Deal managed with a combination of a charismatic leader and the economy. Other DCPS middle schools can do the same. But not if everyone spins their wheels talking about uniforms, SES, and whatever else someone did to make them upset. No way you will get more parents to choose Hardy if all you do is whine about how it's not given its due.

I agree completely about the defensiveness, but this is DC and I think there is a racial context to that also, which is more clear in the other Hardy threads and thankfully hasn't been the focus of this thread. Basically, people get upset because they see white people shunning a black school. I don't think that's fair, but again this is DC so we shouldn't be surprised that there would be a race aspect to the discussion.

But on your point about private school, the IB population is not monolithic. The huge houses with the tennis courts or pools, yeah, maybe never going to Hardy. But if you bought a modest house in Palisades during 2006-2010 it wasn't more expensive than IB for Deal, sub $800k for sure. There are plenty of IB people who are not rolling in money and would love to have a good public MS and HS option if they could.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I swear, if half the energy spent discussing Hardy were redirected toward improving other DCPS middle schools, none of this would matter. People, IB Hardy parents choose private school for many reasons; quite frankly, they probably never even consider Hardy as a viable option. They need way more than theoretical arguments to get them to do otherwise. Some may shift, and that would be great, but the real way to do it is to stop being defensive about it. Deal managed with a combination of a charismatic leader and the economy. Other DCPS middle schools can do the same. But not if everyone spins their wheels talking about uniforms, SES, and whatever else someone did to make them upset. No way you will get more parents to choose Hardy if all you do is whine about how it's not given its due.

I agree completely about the defensiveness, but this is DC and I think there is a racial context to that also, which is more clear in the other Hardy threads and thankfully hasn't been the focus of this thread. Basically, people get upset because they see white people shunning a black school. I don't think that's fair, but again this is DC so we shouldn't be surprised that there would be a race aspect to the discussion.

But on your point about private school, the IB population is not monolithic. The huge houses with the tennis courts or pools, yeah, maybe never going to Hardy. But if you bought a modest house in Palisades during 2006-2010 it wasn't more expensive than IB for Deal, sub $800k for sure. There are plenty of IB people who are not rolling in money and would love to have a good public MS and HS option if they could.

Fair enough. I agree.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Op here.

For the love of God. I said I was American. Full stop.

As I said earlier, I will identify all of my posts. And I have. and in one of them you said you were Chechen

You, PP, are seriously nuts. Like certifiably so. I'm not trying to slander you or make light of your condition. Mental Heath issues are tough. Although I'm not a real doctor, perhaps stepping away from the keyboard would be a good first step.

OP,
not PP,

and although many are now considering it a joke,
and many on here lie,
you said you were not Italian. Dark hair, blue eyes, wife, two kids, amazing dog and Chechen
an economist for a large organization that had nothing to do with DCPS
I assume your kids are in private school

Were you lying then or are you lying now?

Those of us who are American do not say full stop.

Nor would we entitle a thread a "dispassioned" as opposed to a "dispassionate" view...........

So stop lying. You have had your fun and perhaps recognized the dangers of DCUM

What you and all these PD Stag Hunt to coin a phrase "stoopid" economists fail to recognize
is that there is a large swathe of IB Hardy parents who would never send their kids to Deal OR Wilson

so factor that into your equations while you try to wiggle out of the way you have previously identified yourself

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I swear, if half the energy spent discussing Hardy were redirected toward improving other DCPS middle schools, none of this would matter. People, IB Hardy parents choose private school for many reasons; quite frankly, they probably never even consider Hardy as a viable option. They need way more than theoretical arguments to get them to do otherwise. Some may shift, and that would be great, but the real way to do it is to stop being defensive about it. Deal managed with a combination of a charismatic leader and the economy. Other DCPS middle schools can do the same. But not if everyone spins their wheels talking about uniforms, SES, and whatever else someone did to make them upset. No way you will get more parents to choose Hardy if all you do is whine about how it's not given its due.

you probably have no vested interest in any outcome in DCPS

signed,
a private school parent who recognizes another one when I see them

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Op here.

For the love of God. I said I was American. Full stop.

As I said earlier, I will identify all of my posts. And I have. and in one of them you said you were Chechen

You, PP, are seriously nuts. Like certifiably so. I'm not trying to slander you or make light of your condition. Mental Heath issues are tough. Although I'm not a real doctor, perhaps stepping away from the keyboard would be a good first step.

OP,
not PP,

and although many are now considering it a joke,
and many on here lie,
you said you were not Italian. Dark hair, blue eyes, wife, two kids, amazing dog and Chechen
an economist for a large organization that had nothing to do with DCPS
I assume your kids are in private school

Were you lying then or are you lying now?

Those of us who are American do not say full stop.

Nor would we entitle a thread a "dispassioned" as opposed to a "dispassionate" view...........

So stop lying. You have had your fun and perhaps recognized the dangers of DCUM

What you and all these PD Stag Hunt to coin a phrase "stoopid" economists fail to recognize
is that there is a large swathe of IB Hardy parents who would never send their kids to Deal OR Wilson

so factor that into your equations while you try to wiggle out of the way you have previously identified yourself

^^the worst of DCUM

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Op here.

For the love of God. I said I was American. Full stop.

As I said earlier, I will identify all of my posts. And I have. and in one of them you said you were Chechen

You, PP, are seriously nuts. Like certifiably so. I'm not trying to slander you or make light of your condition. Mental Heath issues are tough. Although I'm not a real doctor, perhaps stepping away from the keyboard would be a good first step.

OP,
not PP,

and although many are now considering it a joke,
and many on here lie,
you said you were not Italian. Dark hair, blue eyes, wife, two kids, amazing dog and Chechen
an economist for a large organization that had nothing to do with DCPS
I assume your kids are in private school

Were you lying then or are you lying now?

Those of us who are American do not say full stop.

Nor would we entitle a thread a "dispassioned" as opposed to a "dispassionate" view...........

So stop lying. You have had your fun and perhaps recognized the dangers of DCUM

What you and all these PD Stag Hunt to coin a phrase "stoopid" economists fail to recognize
is that there is a large swathe of IB Hardy parents who would never send their kids to Deal OR Wilson

so factor that into your equations while you try to wiggle out of the way you have previously identified yourself

For the love of God. I identify all of my posts. Was the Chechen comment self-identified? Ask your child to help you with reading comprehension. Stress to him to be patient.

My children are irrelevant. They are not in private school. Feel free to keep assuming.

[Anonymous]

Previous post was OP.

[Anonymous]

I grew up middle class with college educated parents in inner-city schools in Denver. Took and passed several AP tests have a masters degree now. I would tend to believe my life story validates you starting point, but I think what it misses is all the other pieces of an educational experience it does not account for:

On the positive side, I have attended schools as a minority (white) since 4th grade, you learn to think in different perspectives.

I had opportunities in places like swimming and debate that I might not of at a more elite school which would have required more outside resources than my parents had.

On the down side, did not have anywhere near the support I needed to learn to write well, compared to my peers at more highly regarded schools I was reading less challenging literature. I have never felt that comfortable in elite circles or with wealthy people. It is hard to know how much of this was my schooling versus home life but if economists really want to understand why relative high quality schools are shunned they need to compare on different variables.