By the numbers: A dispassioned evaluation of Hardy (compared to Deal and Wilson)

[Anonymous]

Re Stoddert-the smartest and most motivated kids in. My DC's charter come from Stoddert. These are the same kids that were in a combined kindergarten and first grade when they were first at Stoddert because so few kids attending the ES. Any school-be it Deal, WL, BASIS or Hardy, would be lucky to have these students at their MS. (PS-my DC went to a JKLM, NOT Stoddert).

Also, you can say you are talking about FARMS (or lack thereof) numbers when you refer to CAS/PARC performance, rather than race, but whether we want to admit it or not, the poor students in this city are AA, so you a ARE talking about race, even if you are trying not to.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:You heard it here first. The uniforms will soon be a thing of the past -- a concession to IB feeder parents who are considering their options.

OP here.

(I'm waiting on a flight and have some time to kill.)

Someone asked about Hardy FARMS last year. You will see the number below. I will also re-post my predictions about Hardy's demographics (in the spirit of a prediction that uniforms will be a thing of the past).

THESE ARE PREDICTIONS:
The IB percentage is 15% for the current year (up from 13%).
The percent White has increased: 13% White (up from 11%).
The percent Asian has increased: 10% Asian (up from 8%).
The percent African-American has fallen: 60% (down from 64%).
The percent Latino is about the same: 14% (it was 14% last year).
FARMS has decreased by 20%: it is now 45% (down from 55%).

Finally, a bonus prediction: within year or two we will all of think of Stoddert in the same way people think of Janney now (for better or worse). Based on test scores, it will be the highest-performing DCPS ES.

OP, your predictions are mostly confirmed:

http://profiles.dcps.dc.gov/Hardy+Middle+School

Your predictions were very modest. You predicted a tiny increase in IB, and this is what has happened. The big test will be your prediction of a big IB jump in 2 years.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:OP here.

As it turns out, I'm a game theorist. So, yes, I COMPLETELY familiar with such concepts as the prisoners' dilemma.

You're confusing matters. The tension in a PD is that everyone has a strictly dominant strategy: fink. Translated here, this is "going private" is the strictly dominant strategy. No one believes, not even yourself.

Instead, what you're actually describing is a coordination game. Stag Hunt is a good example. If you and I agree to work together, we can bring down a large deer and eat like kings. If I work alone, I can catch some rabbits. You too. But if I decide to hunt stag while you go after rabbits, I go hungry while you dine on Bugs Bunny.

Stag Hunt is more applicable here. That's the crux of the matter: if the IB families agree to send their children to Hardy, Hardy will quickly look like Deal. If you look below the surface, it already looks like Deal in several key ways.


An unrelated poster asked about "why would I send my kid to a lesser-quality school (Hardy) when I could just send them somewhere better (private)?" There is a difference in cost, you know. That should be a sufficient answer, but there are other compensating differentials as well.

Moreover, my entire point was that if Wilson is good enough for your child, Hardy is most certainly good enough for him too. If Deal is good enough for your child, you can make a solid case that Hardy is good enough for him too. That's what the data say.

OP - if you happen to see this message, you are probably well aware that the 2017 - 18 academic year is predicted by many to be the tipping point for Hardy. There have been a confluence of events that make this more likely than not; BASIS cut its capacity almost in half and there is evidence of a local baby boom compounding the effect of the diminished capacity. People who are planning to go private will do so but for those who were planning on charters only, may have no options but Hardy. All students who wanted to attend BASIS for 5th grade for the 2015-16 academic year were able to do so. Highly unlikely for 2016-17 year. And when you look even further out, Eaton is zoned for Hardy for 2018-19 (no longer have a choice unless they have a sibling already attending Deal). Should be interesting to see what happens at Hardy. Stay tuned.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Op here.

For the love of God. I said I was American. Full stop.

As I said earlier, I will identify all of my posts. And I have. and in one of them you said you were Chechen

You, PP, are seriously nuts. Like certifiably so. I'm not trying to slander you or make light of your condition. Mental Heath issues are tough. Although I'm not a real doctor, perhaps stepping away from the keyboard would be a good first step.

OP,
not PP,

and although many are now considering it a joke,
and many on here lie,
you said you were not Italian. Dark hair, blue eyes, wife, two kids, amazing dog and Chechen
an economist for a large organization that had nothing to do with DCPS
I assume your kids are in private school

Were you lying then or are you lying now?

Those of us who are American do not say full stop.

Nor would we entitle a thread a "dispassioned" as opposed to a "dispassionate" view...........

So stop lying. You have had your fun and perhaps recognized the dangers of DCUM

What you and all these PD Stag Hunt to coin a phrase "stoopid" economists fail to recognize
is that there is a large swathe of IB Hardy parents who would never send their kids to Deal OR Wilson

so factor that into your equations while you try to wiggle out of the way you have previously identified yourself

For the love of God. I identify all of my posts. Was the Chechen comment self-identified? Ask your child to help you with reading comprehension. Stress to him to be patient.

My children are irrelevant. They are not in private school. Feel free to keep assuming.

Chechen?

[Anonymous]

Anec-data also indicate that a number of stalwart PTA families at Stoddert are about to graduate and move on to Hardy, where their leadership will hopefully be welcomed.

[Anonymous]

No clue about the tipping pint of Hardy but BASIS is already working the waitlist for 5th grade. Kids will still be able to get in for 2016-2017.

A bigger predictor will be how far Hardy goes into its waitlists this year. They IB increased from 13% to 15% this year. Moving in the right direction. Though doubtful anyone can truly say how much it will grow next year.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:No clue about the tipping pint of Hardy but BASIS is already working the waitlist for 5th grade. Kids will still be able to get in for 2016-2017.

A bigger predictor will be how far Hardy goes into its waitlists this year. They IB increased from 13% to 15% this year. Moving in the right direction. Though doubtful anyone can truly say how much it will grow next year.

True that BASIS is working the waitlist, but will it admit everyone eventually? In other words will anyone who wants to go there get a chance to go there? Last year the waitlist starting point was about 20 for rising 5th graders whereas this year, it started at about 140. Of course further events could occur that makes it possible for all 140 to be offered spots such as BASIS increasing its 5th grade capacity, but for now that is pure speculation.

[Anonymous]

I have been waiting for a meaningful discussion of hardy. I will need to go back and read the thread, but I appreciate. If you are in bounds for Deal, can you lottery into Hardy? I didn't love Deal when we visited with our child. Seemed kind if smarmy/ unmotivated. I love simple uniforms and Hardys location. Does it have an academic selling point - something that gives it some identity?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I have been waiting for a meaningful discussion of hardy. I will need to go back and read the thread, but I appreciate. If you are in bounds for Deal, can you lottery into Hardy? I didn't love Deal when we visited with our child. Seemed kind if smarmy/ unmotivated. I love simple uniforms and Hardys location. Does it have an academic selling point - something that gives it some identity?

Yes you can enter the lottery and try for Hardy. It is much smaller than Deal, which seems to be its biggest strength.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Anec-data also indicate that a number of stalwart PTA families at Stoddert are about to graduate and move on to Hardy, where their leadership will hopefully be welcomed.

Same thing at Mann. At least (and I emphasize at least) three kids whose parents serve on the PTA leadership are heading to Hardy. Not PTA members. PTA leadership. It is expected that they'll assume PTA leadership roles at Hardy.

Oh, and for the trolls, they're IB of course.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Anec-data also indicate that a number of stalwart PTA families at Stoddert are about to graduate and move on to Hardy, where their leadership will hopefully be welcomed.

Same thing at Mann. At least (and I emphasize at least) three kids whose parents serve on the PTA leadership are heading to Hardy. Not PTA members. PTA leadership. It is expected that they'll assume PTA leadership roles at Hardy.

Oh, and for the trolls, they're IB of course.

This strikes me as really arrogant.

Can you just say that they'll likely seek PTA leadership roles at Hardy? It is, after all, a new and broader community and they would need to be elected. Great as they may be, there are others capable of taking on leadership roles at Hardy and these parents will be the newbies.

[Anonymous]

In talking about the Basis waitlist for 5th, I'll point out that yes, the waitlist is moving, and in my experience that is partly because people are turning down their spots in favor of staying at their Dcps for 5th with the expectation that they will go to Hardy the following year. There could be more, but I know of at least 5 families that were either matched in the lottery or have already been offered a spot and declined. I also know that around 20 families at our school didn't even enter the lottery because they already decided that they were a go for Hardy.

And I do think it's relevant to point out that families who have been engaged at the elementary level are headed to Hardy. Those are often the same sorts of families who will remain engaged--taking a lead in the website, communications, fundraising, holding admin's feet to the fire on the curriculum and elective offerings, being demanding about discipline and safety issues, etc.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

And I do think it's relevant to point out that families who have been engaged at the elementary level are headed to Hardy. Those are often the same sorts of families who will remain engaged--taking a lead in the website, communications, fundraising, holding admin's feet to the fire on the curriculum and elective offerings, being demanding about discipline and safety issues, etc.

Of course it's relevant. But to say they will immediately start running the PTA at Hardy, simply by virtue of the fact that they did this at your DCPS, is arrogant.

Ideally they'll take a few months to join and participate and then see where and how they might best contribute.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Anec-data also indicate that a number of stalwart PTA families at Stoddert are about to graduate and move on to Hardy, where their leadership will hopefully be welcomed.

Same thing at Mann. At least (and I emphasize at least) three kids whose parents serve on the PTA leadership are heading to Hardy. Not PTA members. PTA leadership. It is expected that they'll assume PTA leadership roles at Hardy.

Oh, and for the trolls, they're IB of course.

This strikes me as really arrogant.

Can you just say that they'll likely seek PTA leadership roles at Hardy? It is, after all, a new and broader community and they would need to be elected. Great as they may be, there are others capable of taking on leadership roles at Hardy and these parents will be the newbies.

Point conceded. I didn't want the word assume but I couldn't think of "seek." I knew it had the wrong connotation when I was writing it, but the right word escaped me. I blame it on 630am, but the point remains.

[Anonymous]

It's not arrogant to observe that IB families, who have loved our thriving elementary schools in no small part because of the amazing work done by our PTAs, would be delighted -- and perhaps enticed -- by the idea of these folks having access to leadership positions in our middle school.