Reply to By the numbers: A dispassioned evaluation of Hardy (compared to Deal and Wilson)

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]Op here.

Won't be 17% for the whole school. That's too big of a jump based on what we know.

I expect around 20% for the 6th grade class with 15% overall. That's for IB. I'm guessing feeder% for 6th is about 35% already.

As said earlier, the big jump will be in two years. Not only will the then-6th IB cohort be much larger (based upon my projections), but the then-8th grade will be aound 20% instead of 11%. Both will make the school average move quite a bit. [/quote]

OP,
all IB parents who are Wilson bound need to see is the entry grade continue to shift each yeart. 
But someone needs to crunch the numbers to see if ultimately this shift is possible given how many kids in these feeders are not Wilson bound and never will be.  Now Hardy has Eaton, does it also have Stoddert?

BTW, there was more than one BASIS poster, and what you did there was beneath you. Conflating statistics from two different years, the first about FARMS, the second about race.  You baited the poor woman, you Chechen!  But it makes for an interesting case study.  A school that was Title I when it scored second to the almighty Deal on the DC CAS deserves credit. But as an economist you might have considered the possibility that those DC CAS scores by BASIS in 2013 and 2014 with high FARMS populations are probably the only reason for the demographic shift in the third year. Which because of the pyramid model is composed entirely of 5th graders and thus is far more dramatic number wise than the shift will from OOB to IB will ever be at Hardy in any given year. For so many of us, this is about FARMS not race. But the reason it is an interesting case is it flipped in year 3 of existence - no doubt due to its scores.

The shift at Washington Latin (the other school in the top 3 DC CAS scores, also a charter, in terms of FARMS has been much more gradual.

For Hardy, it is about IB vs OOB.  But you have to really understand the market to predict how and when it will flip.

OP, 
It seems that you are predicting gradual change, no?  Even for the now 4th graders?
But presumably the change will also affect who applies for the OOB lottery.
I do not think the wait list is long this year, and if the composition of the OOB applicants were to shift and increase significantly as well simultaneously, you might get a really dramatic change in terms of FARMS numbers and scores.
But I suppose it is possible that IB Hardy parents would not care so much about that, although I can't really see why...

what do you think about the potential for a simultaneous IB/OOB flip - there are so many people EOTP desperate for high quality middle schools..........[/quote]

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